Oh, and regarding BSAss ... in the last few days I've seen King's Speech (*yawn*) and Rabbit's Hole (typo left in intentionally) and think both Bonham-Carter and Wiest would likely be getting in on the merits of others around them and, again, career points.
Wiest is quietly effective but doesn't really get a cathartic moment like both Kidman (pretty fantastic) and Eckhart (out of his league but still resonant) do, multiple times.
I'm sure most of you are aware I'm was not in a mood to be receptive to whatever charms King's Speech was peddling, and sure enough, I found it a pretty piss-poor hunk of prestige even compared to something like The Queen, upon which it seems very clearly modeled. Bonham-Carter's role is a whole lot of nothing, but she's agreeable and it's a pretty easy coattails nod.
Until I see The Fighter and True Grit, I guess I can't say I see any other locks whatsoever. (Seeing Manville on Friday.) I wouldn't mind seeing some traction for Winona Ryder, but it's not a very big role.
My first complete Oscar predictions of the year
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Eric
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I find it pretty amazing that Sasha Stone (who I added to my RSS feed just this year as a little experiment because she's one of the better Oscar bloggers out there) manages to find time to devote about 2,000 newly rearranged words about why Social Network is the movie to beat this year. Which it may be, but ... damn, how many times can you say the same thing over and over and then end it with "But we don't know anything yet. We're just throwing stuff at the wall and seeing what sticks"?
Edited By Eric on 1291846196
Edited By Eric on 1291846196
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Mister Tee
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I think they all suffer from the same disease as 24-hour cable news: the need to fill space on a consistent basis. Here, we have our historical discussions, off-topic...and if all else fails, we just let the place go quiet a day or two. They need to keep things pumped up all the time, and there just isn't that much news to do the job.Big Magilla wrote:Frankly, I am sick of just about all those other Oscar boards with their one-note proprietors. I find Sasha's constant campaigning on behalf of Natalie Portman in Black Swan just as tiresome as Tom O'Neill's unwavering support of Annette Being. Neither, though, annoys me as much as Jeffrey Wells' bullying of anyone who doesn't think The Social Network is the greatest thing since his personal discovery of the internet.
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Big Magilla
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Damien wrote:flipp525 wrote:Damien, what was the "Bona is a moron" quote in response to?
It was an "Oscar Round Table" discussion on Awards Daily. In response to the question of what one thing would you change about the Oscars, I -- surprise! -- made an argument for doing away with the Animated Feature award. This guy Dr. STrangelove, and several others, went ballistic.
I'm glad you cleared that up.
I thought the phrase - "Bona is a moron." -- 'Dr. Strangelove,' a poster on the Awards Daily site - was referencing an advertising poster of the movie. Here I was racking my brain trying to remember a character in the film named "Bona"!
Frankly, I am sick of just about all those other Oscar boards with their one-note proprietors. I find Sasha's constant campaigning on behalf of Natalie Portman in Black Swan just as tiresome as Tom O'Neill's unwavering support of Annette Being. Neither, though, annoys me as much as Jeffrey Wells' bullying of anyone who doesn't think The Social Network is the greatest thing since his personal discovery of the internet.
Josh, I couldn't have said it better.Sabin wrote:Honestly, because it's not worth it. You could pay attention to the two and a half hours of explanations thrown at the audience with pulsing audio in the background to make it cool, but it's not worth it because A) none of it makes sense, B) you can't form emotional attachment to anything, and C) it's not that fun. There are jolts of wandering ingenious set-piece but they're filmed so literally and engulfed in boring exposition. It feels like some nerd's idea of what's cool, but really it's just derivative and dopey.
"Y'know, that's one of the things I like about Mitt Romney. He's been consistent since he changed his mind." -- Christine O'Donnell
It was an "Oscar Round Table" discussion on Awards Daily. In response to the question of what one thing would you change about the Oscars, I -- surprise! -- made an argument for doing away with the Animated Feature award. This guy Dr. STrangelove, and several others, went ballistic.flipp525 wrote:Damien, what was the "Bona is a moron" quote in response to?
"Y'know, that's one of the things I like about Mitt Romney. He's been consistent since he changed his mind." -- Christine O'Donnell
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FilmFan720
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Looking at our final predictions from 2008, Damien, myself, dylanfan, Mister Tee and Snick's Guy all left The Dark Knight off of our prediction list. Flipp did include him, and ITALIANO didn't post to the contest.
"Go into the world and do well. But more importantly, go into the world and do good."
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I don't know about Mister Tee, but I'm sure that I expressed my "vocal" views on that movie's chances right after I saw it, which was in August in Beirut.Okri wrote:1. To my recollection, Mister Tee voiced his misgivings about The Dark Knight as a best picture nominee throughout the race. In the end, both of you said something like "it could only happen this year if it does happen" just before nominations roll around, though to be proven that your earlier assertions were correct.
1. To my recollection, Mister Tee voiced his misgivings about The Dark Knight as a best picture nominee throughout the race. In the end, both of you said something like "it could only happen this year if it does happen" just before nominations roll around, though to be proven that your earlier assertions were correct.ITALIANO wrote:Wrong as always. I was by far the most vocal, at least. And the one can confirm this is... yourself, in a post you wrote right after the nominations were announced that year. (Needless to say, you didn't congratulate but complained that I would never stop boasting. And as you can see I'm proving you right).flipp525 wrote:You weren't the only one to go there at the time. Or even the most vocal about it.ITALIANO wrote:As the poor and much-mistreated soul who once made the mistake of correctly predicting that The Dark Knight would be excluded from the Best Picture race, let me say that this time it wouldn't be that different.
As for Best Supporting Actress, it could be one of this year's most interesting races. Especially if Lesley Manville is nominated as Leading. Helena Bonham Carter will have the advantage of being the most popular nominee and of being in a much-nominated movie, but now I'm still not sure that The King's Speech will have the force of carrying her to a win. As for the other names, Melissa Leo, Jackie Weaver, Dianne West and Amy Adams all seem to have more chances than Marion Cotillanrd and, unfortunately, Dale Dickey.
2. That said, yeah, I'm thinking that Nolan's not really in this race. But count me among the surprised that Boyle's in this race again. About half of best director winners/directors of BP winners don't return and I'm stunned that it's happened and happened so soon.
3. I really doubt Aronofsky's pull here, but in an "if not him, then who" kinda way. I really think people are understimating Leigh, though.
Touché.ITALIANO wrote:Well, in narcissism it's a close race between you and me...flipp525 wrote:I just wanted to see if you'd go the extra distance and actually research your own narcissism. Apparently you will!
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-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
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Big Magilla
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This one I agree with.Sabin wrote:(flipp525 @ Dec. 08 2010,9:54)Although it may not be fair to her, I would mark down Marion Cotillard on my list of the Worst Supporting Actresses this year. You have no idea how annoying this bitch gets. We are supposed to be moved by her tragic relationship with DiCaprio and yet every time she emerges on-screen there is a palpable joylessness that I wanted to get away from. It's such a phony relationship, and the film is desperate in its desire to make it phonier, louder, more annoying, less personal. I suppose it's possible that her non-character could register with voters because it's the film's best chance for an acting nomination, but it would be a real shame.On the Inception issue, I haven't seen it, so I can't really say where it places in the Editing race, but does any of this Marion Cotillard Best Supporting Actress talk have legs?
I don't get why this modestly talented actress is mentioned as an Oscar contender for every film she makes. I wasn't a fan of her Edith Piaf in La Vie en Rose, but I could appreciate the work she obviously put into the role.
But Public Enemies and Inception? No way.
ITALIANO wrote:flipp525 wrote:ITALIANO wrote:As the poor and much-mistreated soul who once made the mistake of correctly predicting that The Dark Knight would be excluded from the Best Picture race, let me say that this time it wouldn't be that different.
You weren't the only one to go there at the time. Or even the most vocal about it.
Wrong as always. I was by far the most vocal, at least. And the one can confirm this is... yourself, in a post you wrote right after the nominations were announced that year. (Needless to say, you didn't congratulate but complained that I would never stop boasting. And as you can see I'm proving you right).
I just wanted to see if you'd go the extra distance and actually research your own narcissism. Apparently you will!
How could I possibly be "wrong as always" when I also thought that Catherine Keener fully deserved her 2005 BSA nod?
Agreed on Best Supporting Actress for this year. It's shaping up to be a really strong category and potentially interesting race. I hope Manville goes lead, too.
Edited By flipp525 on 1291834710
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."
-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
Please forgive the link. This is precisely how I feel about Inception. Also, this IS Inception. The entire film.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010....29.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010....29.html
"How's the despair?"
Wrong as always. I was by far the most vocal, at least. And the one can confirm this is... yourself, in a post you wrote right after the nominations were announced that year. (Needless to say, you didn't congratulate but complained that I would never stop boasting. And as you can see I'm proving you right).flipp525 wrote:You weren't the only one to go there at the time. Or even the most vocal about it.ITALIANO wrote:As the poor and much-mistreated soul who once made the mistake of correctly predicting that The Dark Knight would be excluded from the Best Picture race, let me say that this time it wouldn't be that different.
As for Best Supporting Actress, it could be one of this year's most interesting races. Especially if Lesley Manville is nominated as Leading. Helena Bonham Carter will have the advantage of being the most popular nominee and of being in a much-nominated movie, but now I'm still not sure that The King's Speech will have the force of carrying her to a win. As for the other names, Melissa Leo, Jackie Weaver, Dianne West and Amy Adams all seem to have more chances than Marion Cotillanrd and, unfortunately, Dale Dickey.