My first complete Oscar predictions of the year

anonymous1980
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Post by anonymous1980 »

kaytodd wrote:Is it pretty much a foregone conclusion that Inception will be nominated for BP, Director, Original Screenplay and Editing Oscars? I think it deserves nothing more than technical nominations, except for Editing (and it deserves recognition for visual effects, art direction and cinematography). I thought it was a confusing mess with little substance. Neither the script, Nolan's direction nor the editing deserve noms, IMO. I admire Nolan for making the effort but it was a noble failure. I hope he tries again with a tighter story.

I forgot who posted this a while back but I agree with the opinion that Tony Gilroy's Duplicity script was far more deserving of a nom and if it was not recognized by the Writer's Branch then Inception should not be.
Inception's a frontrunner to WIN the Editing Oscar. I don't get why people think it's confusing. It's easy to follow if you paid attention to the rules of the world and I thought the editing together of the action sequences and the juggling of the simulataneous level of consciousness was absolutely breathtaking when I saw it for the 2nd time. Why simply the sequence when the car was doing a barrel-roll, making Joseph Gordon-Levitt to fight off bad guys in zero-g was absolutely remarkable.
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Post by kaytodd »

Mister Tee wrote:Screenplay could conceivably slip in on level-of-inventiveness, but voters would have to ignore the widespread impression that the dialogue clunked.
For example, Ellen Page's howler: "OK, now whose subconsciousness are we entering?"
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Post by Reza »

Eric wrote:Yeah, I think Nolan's in an uphill battle with Aronofsky for the fifth slot; I'm sensing Winter's Bone is enjoying a much larger surge of support than we may have thought.

Fincher
Hooper
Granik
Boyle
Aronofsky
I think we shouldn't underestimate Mike Leigh (Another Life).
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Post by FilmFan720 »

I still haven't bothered catching up with Inception yet, so this is all from heresay, but I think it has more of an uphill battle than the bloggers make it out to be. Yes, with 10 nominees it is a strong possibility for a Picture nod. As for the other glamor categories, if The Dark Knight couldn't push Nolan through I don't think this will either. People don't seem to be as head over heels for this as they were for the Batman film, and Nolan doesn't have the guaranteed nod (Heath Ledger) to ride the wave on. Plus, this is a much more competitive category this year, with a lot of Academy favorites duking it out for placement in Director. I have Nolan very far down on the possibility list.
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Post by Eric »

Yeah, I think Nolan's in an uphill battle with Aronofsky for the fifth slot; I'm sensing Winter's Bone is enjoying a much larger surge of support than we may have thought.

Fincher
Hooper
Granik
Boyle
Aronofsky
Mister Tee
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Post by Mister Tee »

kaytodd wrote:Is it pretty much a foregone conclusion that Inception will be nominated for BP, Director, Original Screenplay and Editing Oscars?
It is on most Oscar blogs, but of course these are the same folk who thought their hearing had failed when they didn't hear The Dark Knight in the glamour categories. They've now convinced themselves AMPAS voters have experienced mass remorse over that shocking omission and will go all in to rectify it here.

The Board of Governors "Make it Ten" Fix pretty much assures the film makes best picture, but I think director is dubious -- too many auterur-y candidates. Screenplay could conceivably slip in on level-of-inventiveness, but voters would have to ignore the widespread impression that the dialogue clunked.
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Post by kaytodd »

Is it pretty much a foregone conclusion that Inception will be nominated for BP, Director, Original Screenplay and Editing Oscars? I think it deserves nothing more than technical nominations, except for Editing (and it deserves recognition for visual effects, art direction and cinematography). I thought it was a confusing mess with little substance. Neither the script, Nolan's direction nor the editing deserve noms, IMO. I admire Nolan for making the effort but it was a noble failure. I hope he tries again with a tighter story.

I forgot who posted this a while back but I agree with the opinion that Tony Gilroy's Duplicity script was far more deserving of a nom and if it was not recognized by the Writer's Branch then Inception should not be.




Edited By kaytodd on 1291776898
The great thing in the world is not so much where we stand, as in what direction we are moving. It's faith in something and enthusiasm for something that makes a life worth living. Oliver Wendell Holmes
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Post by Reza »

FilmFan720 wrote:
Reza wrote:
FilmFan720 wrote: In fact, I think that all of them are shaky nominees, and have no shot of winning (except Natalie Portman)
Who are the frontrunners?

Colin Firth
Annette Bening / Natalie Portman
Christian Bale
Jackie Weaver
Why do we need to have frontrunners this early? Can't we focus now on the nominees and how all of this is going to play out?
Yes you are right.
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Post by FilmFan720 »

Reza wrote:
FilmFan720 wrote:
Mister Tee wrote: 1) Agree with Magilla: not happening this year, either.

2) I'm pretty sure the only two best actor winners under 30 are Richard Dreyfuss and Adrien Brody, so possible precedents are automatically limited.
In fact, I think that all of them are shaky nominees, and have no shot of winning (except Natalie Portman)
Who are the frontrunners?

Colin Firth
Annette Bening / Natalie Portman
Christian Bale
Jackie Weaver
Why do we need to have frontrunners this early? Can't we focus now on the nominees and how all of this is going to play out?
"Go into the world and do well. But more importantly, go into the world and do good."
- Minor Myers, Jr.
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Post by Big Magilla »

Back to the predictions.

Oscar likes to repeat itself. It also likes to pull a surprise now and then.

Is it possible that this could be a repeat of 1976 when early favorites, the hip, social film of the day ( Network), the out-there thriller (Taxi Driver) and the historical drama (All the President's Men) all lost to the popular boxing movie Rocky? It could happen all over again with The Social Network, Black Swan and The King's Speech losing to The Fighter, which like Rocky has four potential acting nominees, with two of them (Christian Bale, Melissa Leo) quite possibly emerging as front-runners in their categories.
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Post by anonymous1980 »

Nathaniel Rogers of TheFilmExperience.com has pointed out that only 22 males under 30 in the Academy's 82 year history have been NOMINATED for Lead while more than 30 females have been nominated as Lead...in its first two decades.
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Post by Uri »

Mister Tee wrote:2) I'm pretty sure the only two best actor winners under 30 are Richard Dreyfuss and Adrien Brody, so possible precedents are automatically limited.

Dreyfuss was not 30 when he made The Goodbye Girl, but when the nominations and his subsequent win happened he was over 30, celebrating this birthday late in '77.

Contrary to what I've said in another thread, the youngest lineup of winners (based on average age) was not that of 1980 (De Niro was 37, Spacek 31, Steenburgen 27 and Hutton 20 – averaging at 29 and change). That honor should be given to the '61 lineup – Sophia Loren was 26, George Chakiris 27, Rita Moreno was barely 30 and Maximilian Schell had just turned 31 when they all won their Oscars (avarage age just under 29). These are the only times when the average age of the winners was under 30.

There was never a case of 3 winners under 30, and even though there were very few male winners that young – Brody the only lead, Chakiris, Hutton, Cuba Gooding and Heath Ledger in support – while there were many female winners, twice, in '80 and '61, when there were two winners under 30 one was male and one was female, while only 3 times, in '57 (Woodward and Umeki), '60 (Taylor and Jones) and '99 (Swank and Jolie), both were female.

(I really do wish my fetish for ages is not showing).




Edited By Uri on 1291704835
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Post by Reza »

mashari wrote:Hi guys. Just watched Black Swan today and the weird concoction of Showgirls meets Suspiria is one I never would have imagined would spawn a serious Best Actress contender, but it did in Natalie. The last act where she gives the performance of her life will give Bening a run for her money.

With that said, Mrs. Beatty still has the edge, and rightfully so. She gave 2 dynamic performances as dysfunctional mothers in 'Kids' and Mother & Child. Losing to another 20-something Hilary Swank twice aside, I don't think anyone has mentioned that after that last nomination Bening served on the Governor's board of Oscar which may be enough to finally push her in front for a win. The Globe for Actress/Comedy won't hold much weight, but If she gets the SAG, it's a done deal.

I don't really need to see anyone else. No other actresses are in contention this year IMO.
I think you are right about Bening. However, Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone) is an exciting new discovery although her film is too bleak for her to be a serious contender.
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Post by mashari »

Hi guys. Just watched Black Swan today and the weird concoction of Showgirls meets Suspiria is one I never would have imagined spawning a serious Best Actress contender, but it did in Natalie. The last act where she gives the performance of her life will give Bening a run for her money.

With that said, Mrs. Beatty still has the edge, and rightfully so. She gave 2 dynamic performances as dysfunctional mothers in 'Kids' and Mother & Child. Losing to another 20-something Hilary Swank twice aside, I don't think anyone has mentioned that after that last nomination Bening served on the Governor's board of Oscar which may be enough to finally push her in front for a win. The Globe for Actress/Comedy won't hold much weight, but If she gets the SAG, it's a done deal.

I'm also hearing rumors that Focus may be wind up backing only Annette and not Julianne for BA since the former has a better shot at winning. We'll see.

I don't really need to see anyone else. No other actresses are in contention this year IMO.




Edited By mashari on 1291708245
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Post by Reza »

FilmFan720 wrote:
Mister Tee wrote:
Greg wrote:If the awards for Lead Actor, Lead Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress go to Jesse Eisenberg, Natalie Portman, Andrew Garfield, and either Hailee Steinfeld or Mila Kunis, then all acting winners will be under 30 years old. Does anyone know if this has ever happened before?
1) Agree with Magilla: not happening this year, either.

2) I'm pretty sure the only two best actor winners under 30 are Richard Dreyfuss and Adrien Brody, so possible precedents are automatically limited.
In fact, I think that all of them are shaky nominees, and have no shot of winning (except Natalie Portman)
Who are the frontrunners?

Colin Firth
Annette Bening / Natalie Portman
Christian Bale
Jackie Weaver
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