As I remember it, UP IN THE AIR was the frontrunner until the Guilds started handing out awards. The Guilds were the ones that made UP IN THE AIR no longer even part of the discussion of Best Picture. If THE SOCIAL NETWORK starts winning ever Guild like SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE then I will accept the strong possibility that THE SOCIAL NETWORK will be embraced by the Academy.OscarGuy wrote:Up in the Air was discussed as a winner before the NBR, it just became a bigger "juggernaut" afterward. That it didn't actually juggernaut was what brought me to The King's Speech. Although the correlation isn't directed at NBR wnis or not, but until NBR, The King's Speech was considered a lead contender for Best Picture largely because Social Network had disappeared out of the general public consciousness.
NBR Thoughts/Predictions
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rolotomasi99
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"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
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rolotomasi99
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No, no, no, no. Not hurt it, just "bad luck". It is almost a joke how the Golden Globes and the Oscar do not line up.The Original BJ wrote:I realize that a number of recent Golden Globe winners for Best Picture have not gone on to win the Oscar, but I don't see how this statement makes all that much sense. You really think a Golden Globe for Best Drama would HURT The Social Network's long-term awards run?rolotomasi99 wrote:If THE SOCIAL NETWORK wins the Golden Globe for Best Movie Drama, then you should be very, very nervous.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
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The Original BJ
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I realize that a number of recent Golden Globe winners for Best Picture have not gone on to win the Oscar, but I don't see how this statement makes all that much sense. You really think a Golden Globe for Best Drama would HURT The Social Network's long-term awards run?rolotomasi99 wrote:If THE SOCIAL NETWORK wins the Golden Globe for Best Movie Drama, then you should be very, very nervous.
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OscarGuy
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Up in the Air was discussed as a winner before the NBR, it just became a bigger "juggernaut" afterward. That it didn't actually juggernaut was what brought me to The King's Speech. Although the correlation isn't directed at NBR wnis or not, but until NBR, The King's Speech was considered a lead contender for Best Picture largely because Social Network had disappeared out of the general public consciousness.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
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rolotomasi99
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OscarGuy wrote:I wonder if King's Speech might also be suffering from a bit of Up in the Air syndrome. Everyone talked about Up in the Air being the film to beat right after it's NBR win and based on pedigree and then it came up short Oscar night.
THE SOCIAL NETWORK echoes UP IN THE AIR in its four wins from the N.B.R., yet you think THE KING'S SPEECH is in trouble. How do you figure?
THE SOCIAL NETWORK seems like the one in trouble. UP IN THE AIR is a great example of why a movie just absolutely does not want to be pegged the frontrunner this early in the game. The N.B.R. is the first major group to give their awards out so they receive far more attention than they actually warrant.
However, you can certainly make some interesting correlations between this year and last. THE SOCIAL NETWORK is the critics’ darling which garners four wins including Best Picture -- just like UP IN THE AIR. THE KING’S SPEECH was shut out from any wins but was included in the top ten, hurting its “buzz” as a possible spoiler for the newly crowned frontrunner – just like THE HURT LOCKER (Renner received the breakthrough award though). THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT through great reviews and word of mouth became an art house hit and broke out of its “minority” film ghetto, yet was completely ignored by the N.B.R. – just like PRECIOUS (Sidibe received the breakthrough award though).
I have no idea if history is repeating itself, but I do not understand why THE KING’S SPEECH is getting hit with the UP IN THE AIR taint. More times than not, you never want to be the front runner this early on since the only place you have to go is down. Some films, like SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, are able to ride the wave all the way, but that is rare.
For THE SOCIAL NETWORK fans, these early awards must be satisfying, but I think they are very auspicious. I think those that like the little Facebook movie better hope other films start winning awards to take all the pressure off their film. If THE SOCIAL NETWORK wins the Golden Globe for Best Movie Drama, then you should be very, very nervous.
Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1291409037
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
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OscarGuy
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Here are my current Art Direction predictions:
Alice in Wonderland
Inception
The King's Speech
Shutter Island
TRON Legacy
Other potentials: Harry Potter, Made in Dagenham, Nowhere Boy, Nutcracker in 3D, Robin Hood, Secretariat, True Grit, The Way Back
Here are my current Costume Design predictions:
Alice in Wonderland
The King's Speech
Made in Dagenham
Secretariat
True Grit
Of course, I'm going to be putting Shutter Island back in over Secretariat likely.
Other potential nominees: Black Swan, Nowhere Boy, Nutcracker in 3D, Robin Hood, The Way Back
Alice in Wonderland
Inception
The King's Speech
Shutter Island
TRON Legacy
Other potentials: Harry Potter, Made in Dagenham, Nowhere Boy, Nutcracker in 3D, Robin Hood, Secretariat, True Grit, The Way Back
Here are my current Costume Design predictions:
Alice in Wonderland
The King's Speech
Made in Dagenham
Secretariat
True Grit
Of course, I'm going to be putting Shutter Island back in over Secretariat likely.
Other potential nominees: Black Swan, Nowhere Boy, Nutcracker in 3D, Robin Hood, The Way Back
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
I haven't gotten the impression that everyone "hates" it but that they thought it would be a different kind of movie and were disappointed. Most people I have talked to have said they liked the zany look of the film, thought the movie was "ok" and that's about it. Personally, I thought there were some fun moments in the movie, but that Burton would have been better off just remaking the original story. Costume Design, Makeup and Art Direction should be a given, at least for nominations.Mister Tee wrote:Couldn't begin to explain its success.Okri wrote:Oh. Well I'd be floored if Alice on Wonderland lost. It's garish and one of the biggest hits ever (WHY IS THIS TRUE).
But the vibe I get is that many people deeply loathe the movie. And it's unusual for a film in such a niche to win any Oscars.
"Because here’s the thing about life: There’s no accounting for what fate will deal you. Some days when you need a hand. There are other days when we’re called to lend a hand." -- President Joe Biden, 01/20/2021
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Mister Tee
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Mister Tee
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For a nomination, not very. But I'm thinking in terms of who can win.Okri wrote:How important is it that a film needs to be well liked for costume design/art direction, though? Memoirs of a Giesha? An Affair of the Necklace?. 102 Dalmations?Mister Tee wrote:Neither of which is remotely well-liked. Though it's worth noting that every prior Taymor picture has got a costuming nomination.Damien wrote:Two other period pieces are Robin Hood and The Tempest.
I read (and laughed at) that thread at Awards Daily the other day, Damien, and I thought you'd get a kick out of it. Glad to see you've taken ownership of it.
Of the ones you mention, only Geisha won, and, though we here sneer at it, it had a respectable gross and got I believe six nominations, so it was liked enough. I don't see anything in this year's pack to compare.
How important is it that a film needs to be well liked for costume design/art direction, though? Memoirs of a Giesha? An Affair of the Necklace?. 102 Dalmations?Mister Tee wrote:Neither of which is remotely well-liked. Though it's worth noting that every prior Taymor picture has got a costuming nomination.Damien wrote:Two other period pieces are Robin Hood and The Tempest.
I read (and laughed at) that thread at Awards Daily the other day, Damien, and I thought you'd get a kick out of it. Glad to see you've taken ownership of it.
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Mister Tee
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Neither of which is remotely well-liked. Though it's worth noting that every prior Taymor picture has got a costuming nomination.Damien wrote:Two other period pieces are Robin Hood and The Tempest.
I read (and laughed at) that thread at Awards Daily the other day, Damien, and I thought you'd get a kick out of it. Glad to see you've taken ownership of it.
The Original BJ wrote:Mister Tee, that's a good point about this year really lacking the kind of period pics that usually populate the art/costume categories. I hadn't given it much thought before, but, yeah, what's going to fill those slots this year?
I think the front runner for Art Direction is Inception, ala Avatar last year. Costume Design is more of a puzzle, unless The King's Speech is viewed as "period enough."
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