NBR Thoughts/Predictions

ITALIANO
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Post by ITALIANO »

I must be prepared for another very sad Oscar season...
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Post by Mister Tee »

It's very piecemeal. IndieWire says also Eisenberg for best actor and Sorkin for adpated screenplay. Christian Bale for supporting actor.

Harvey Weinstein must be furious.
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Post by OscarGuy »

The NBR site is down, so I have no idea.
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Mister Tee
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Post by Mister Tee »

Nikki Finke reporting a Sony source says Social Network wins best film.
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Post by Sabin »

(Mister Tee @ Dec. 02 2010,11:38)
Last minute throw-in: their Special Achievement usually goes to someone who, wow, did more than one job on a film -- and the only one I can think of is actor/director Ben Affleck on The Town.

I like that. Writer/actor/director/producer. If only he scored it too, he'd be a lock.




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Mister Tee
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Post by Mister Tee »

Last minute throw-in: their Special Achievement usually goes to someone who, wow, did more than one job on a film -- and the only one I can think of is actor/director Ben Affleck on The Town.
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Post by flipp525 »

Picture: The Social Network
(r/u: The King's Speech)

Director: Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
(r/u: David Fincher, The Social Network)

Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
(r/u: James Franco, 127 Hours & Howl)

Actress: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
(r/u: Lesley Manville, Another Year)

Supp. Actor: Sam Rockwell, Conviction
(r/u: Andrew Garfield, The Social Network & Never Let Me Go)

Supp. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
(r/u: Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole)

Breakthrough (Female): Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Breakthrough (Male): Andrew Garfield, The Social Network & Never Let Me Go




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Post by Big Magilla »

I won'tt do the ten best. There's apt to be a surprise or two, but I've no idea what they might be.

Top categories only:
Best Picture: The King's Speech
Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Actress: Lesley Manville, Another Year
Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Supporting Actress: Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet
Director: Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
Breakthrough Male: Andrew Garfield, The Social Network and Never Let Me Go
Breakthrough Female: Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Foreign Language Film: Biutiful
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Post by Greg »

I don't follow NBR; so, I might as well just have some fun and maked a bold-out-there prediction (at least so it seems with everyone predicting The King's Speech.) The Social Network will win Best Film.
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Post by Sabin »

My predictions. I think Tee's got it.

Best English-Language Film - The King's Speech
* 127 Hours
* Another Year
* Black Swan
* Get Low
* The Ghost Writer
* Hereafter
* The Kids Are All Right
* The Social Network
* The Town
* True Grit

Best Actor – Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
(r.u. – James Franco, 127 Hours)

Best Actress – Annette Bening AND Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
(r.u. – Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine)

Best Supporting Actor – Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
(r.u. – Christian Bale, The Fighter)

Best Supporting Actress – Lesley Manville, Another Year
(r.u. – Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom)

Best Director – David Fincher, The Social Network
(r.u. – Ben Affleck, The Town)

Best Original Screenplay – The Kids Are All Right
(r.u. – Get Low)

Best Adapted Screenplay – The Social Network
(r.u. – Winter’s Bone)

Best Ensemble Award – The Social Network
(r.u. – Another Year)

Breakthrough Male – Andrew Garfield, Never Let Me Go AND The Social Network
(r.u. – Armie Hammer, The Social Network)

Breakthrough Female – Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
(r.u. – Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit)

Best First Feature – Get Low
(r.u. – Blue Valentine)

Best Documentary – Client 9
(r.u. – Exit through the Gift Shop, Inside Job, Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work, The Tillman Story)

Best Foreign Language Film – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
(r.u. – Biutiful, Carlos, Everyone Else, I Am Love)

Best Animated Feature – Toy Story 3
(r.u. – How to Train Your Dragon)

Misc. Freedom of Originality/Double Duty Award - Danny Boyle, 127 Hours




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Mister Tee
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Post by Mister Tee »

Big Magilla wrote:
flipp525 wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:One other observation - if Portman wins Best Actress from this conservative group then that Oscar race, too, is all but over.
Magilla, you love to pronounce races finished before they've even begun. If Portman wins NBR, it will certainly be a coup for her (and perhaps, a surefire ticket to a nomination, although one winner from NBR always seems to fall short), but in no way would that race be "over".
Technically, you are correct, but what I meant is that the performance is a bit out there for the conservative NBR, so if she can win here, she can win anywhere.
Actually, when I read your initial post, my initial thought was how it mirrored my feeling back in 1995 when Nicolas Cage won NBR's best actor prize for Leaving Las Vegas. I'd had no doubt, based on the reviews, that Cage would sweep the classic three critics' awards, and I thought only NBR could come up with a viable alternative (it's long forgotten, but early on some were talking about John Travolta in Get Shorty). When NBR, too, jumped on the bandwagon, I thought the race was as good as done.

I don't think NBR is very particular about Breakthrough. They chose Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson, which came after The Notebook.

And maybe yes maybe no on Hereafter. They did go for Gran Torino.
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Post by Big Magilla »

flipp525 wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:One other observation - if Portman wins Best Actress from this conservative group then that Oscar race, too, is all but over.
Magilla, you love to pronounce races finished before they've even begun. If Portman wins NBR, it will certainly be a coup for her (and perhaps, a surefire ticket to a nomination, although one winner from NBR always seems to fall short), but in no way would that race be "over".
Technically, you are correct, but what I meant is that the performance is a bit out there for the conservative NBR, so if she can win here, she can win anywhere.
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Post by The Original BJ »

The King's Speech is NBR pornography.

And I will laugh if it loses.
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Post by flipp525 »

Big Magilla wrote:One other observation - if Portman wins Best Actress from this conservative group then that Oscar race, too, is all but over.
Magilla, you love to pronounce races finished before they've even begun. If Portman wins NBR, it will certainly be a coup for her (and perhaps, a surefire ticket to a nomination, although one winner from NBR always seems to fall short), but in no way would that race be "over".
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Post by Big Magilla »

I've been avoiding reading NBR forecasts on things like Awards Daily and Tom O'Neill's now two websites because I don't want to be influenced in my own predictions, but haven't made my own because I really don't have a clue about these things anymore.

The King's Speech is the kind of film that wins the NBR even when Oscar couldn't care less - remember Far From the Madding Crowd nd The Shoes of the Fisherman? On the other hand, what else is there that would appeal strongly to the older demographic that makes up the NBR?

Tee's list of ten seems reasonable except for maybe Get Low which has had a small, but enthusiastic group of supporters all year and Hereafter which even the biggest Clint-o-philes, of which the NBR numbers many, don't really like. Black Swan and Blue Valentine should show up somewhere, perhaps on on one of their alternative lists.

I think Colin Firth and, yes, Danny Boyle, are solid predictions. I think Annette, not Annette and Julianne will take Best Ac tress if they don't consider Lesley as lead. If they do, then she wins it.

Jennifer Lawrence should win breakthrough female, but I think Jesse Eisenberg broke through a few years ago. Maybe it will go to Andrew Garfield, But even he had a breakthrough of sorts a few years ago in Lions for Lambs. On the other hand maybe it will be atie between Eisenberg, Garifeld and Timberlake or just Garfield and Timberlake.

I see Rush, not Garfield, winning Supporting Actor, but if Manville is elevated to lead then Supporting Actress is wide open.

One other observation - if Portman wins Best Actress from this conservative group then that Oscar race, too, is all but over.
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