NBR Thoughts/Predictions

[Sabin]

In the past thirty years, four films have won four awards from the National Board of Review (unless I'm mistaken): Up in the Air, A Passage to India, Terms of Endearment, and now The Social Network. Does this mean anything? Not really. But what it helps to do is sustain and in some ways further legitimize The Social Network's perceived successes.

This is a film that has grossed now $90 mil, and much of America has still held out on a chance to see it. Nobody over the age of 40 in my family has thought about seeing it. Now they will. Now that it's a hit, it's "The Movie Event of the Decade" (as raved by whomever), and it's won the first in what has to be the start of some kind of awards sweep, it will join the leagues of one of the new trends in Oscar bait: the slow build. Regardless of the fact that it opened to $30 mil, movies like Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men, Crash, Million Dollar Baby, and as far back as American Beauty and Shakespeare in Love took a minute to get to where they were going.

[Big Magilla]

Funny, I thought The Social Network would be this year's Up in the Air - a supposedly hip film about "important matters of the day", that in the end fell just a bit short of expectations.

I've been downplaying Jesse Eisenberg's chances not because he's young or playing a jerk, but because in the end his character isn't really all that interesting. It's time to reassess.

It's now looking, to me anyway, that Colin Firth at 50 will be the oldest dude in the Oscar race, followed by 42 year-old Aaron Eckhart; 32 year old James Franco; 30 year-old Ryan Gosling and 27 year-old Eisenberg. That's an average age of 36.

It could be the first year in which the average age of the actresses turns out to be higher than the actors. If the nominees are Lesley Manville, 54; Annette Bening, 52; Nicole Kidman, 42; Michelle Williams, 30 and Natalie Portman, 29, the average among the women will be 42. Substitute Jennifer Lawrence, 20, for Manville and the average drops to 34, but substitute Lawrence for Williams and it only goes down to 40.

[The Original BJ]

First of all, as promised: AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

I, too, pegged The Social Network as a fairly likely NY/LA-type winner, but thought this group would go for The King's Speech. I know some around here have expressed disappointment that Social Network wasn't a miracle, but for me, it was vastly more exciting, relevant and technically robust than the remote trifle that is The King's Speech. So the fact that this group steered clear -- almost entirely, too -- is encouraging to me.

I've said this before, but if Oscar voters watch Animal Kingdom, Jacki Weaver is in -- she's too good in a memorable villainness role to not seriously contend. The uphill climb will, of course, be visibility, but this earliest of prizes may start the ball rolling in the right direction.

I didn't remotely have Buried on my list of films-to-see. But now I'll probably try to check it out, even if this award doesn't skyrocket it to the top of the field of Original Screenplay contenders.

I've been meaning to post about this for a while, but Waiting for 'Superman' has to be considered a frontrunner to actually WIN the Best Documentary Oscar. It's accessible, informative, angering, emotionally powerful, and gripping -- exactly the kind of doc with real populist appeal that (nowadays, at least) is exactly in the Academy's wheelhouse.

Mister Tee, that's a good point about this year really lacking the kind of period pics that usually populate the art/costume categories. I hadn't given it much thought before, but, yeah, what's going to fill those slots this year?

[OscarGuy]

I wonder if King's Speech might also be suffering from a bit of Up in the Air syndrome. Everyone talked about Up in the Air being the film to beat right after it's NBR win and based on pedigree and then it came up short Oscar night.

There are any number of possible correlations, but we will know more as the critics groups chime in, but King's Speech has never struck me as a critic friendly film...and I expect Social Network to compete with Black Swan and 127 Hours for the lion's share of critics prizes.

[Damien]

Jesse Eisenberg best actor? The Board has gone from elderly to senile.

Glad to see that Christian Bale has finally gotten some awards love -- he's been a tremendous actor for two decades now.

[helio]

Well, Up in the Air won picture, actor, sup actress and adapted screenplay...

[OscarGuy]

Tee, I wonder if part of the King's Speech fascination isn't just bloggers, but the Harvey Weinstein connection. This is the first time in many years Weinstein has had a real horse in the competition and I wonder if some of this is Weinstein spin buzz. The film just never seemed like an Oscar contender to me. It seemed more like The Queen in countenance, meaning it would probably get a nod, but not be in the race to win. So, some hype may have been manufactured by the Harvey machine.

[Mister Tee]

I guess it 's not your grandfather's NBR any more.

The question is whether it's NBR that's changed (six years ago they were enough their old selves to deem Finding Neverland the year's best), or if The King's Speech is really all it's cracked up to be. One of the disadvantages of having the festival-driven Oscar season largely covered by the blog squad is that they're not viewing films as works of art to be assessed, but as Oscar contenders to be yea-ed or nay-ed. And a good deal of the Toronto enthusiasm for the film was not just that it was enjoyable, but the presumption that it would have appeal deep down in the Driving Miss Daisy heart of AMPAS. Granted, there have been other reasons to believe the film would have a good Oscar run (the Toronto audience prize, the sizable opening weekend gross). But alot of the buzz has been second-hand -- not that the reporters themselves loved it, but that they were certain there were others out there who would. And maybe it's not yet proven that hypthesis is correct.

One prize IndieWire somehow missed: a design honor to Dante Ferretti for Shutter Island. I remember praising that element when I saw the film last Spring, but thinking it might not be traditional enough to get a nomination. However, when you think about it, there really aren't many opulent candidates for sets or costumes this year -- The King's Speech seems (appropriately) drab-ish, and Alice in Wonderland may be elaborate, but a good many people hate it. So maybe Shutter Island can sneak in.

I've heard alot of people downplaying Eisenberg's best actor chances of late -- because his character's unlikable, because he's so young -- so this win comes as welcome boost. It reminds me a bit of Russell Crowe in The Insider -- a highly praised performance that seemed to be slipping from nomination-contention because of his film's poor commercial showing, but came back to win NBR and LA and assure an Oscar showing.

[Hollywood Z]

I have to ask, when was the last time a movie won more than three awards from the NBR?

*edit* It looks like it was back in the 80s when Mississippi Burning, A Passage to India and Terms of Endearment all won four awards. Of course, there were fewer categories back then (including no category for Screenplays).



Edited By Hollywood Z on 1291327483

[OscarGuy]

It's also not your grandkids' NBR yet...127 Hours and Black Swan would have figured on that kind of list. I had not noticed the absence of Kids Are All Right, but Get Low being missing is not at all shocking to me.

[Big Magilla]

Completely unexpected choices except for Lesley Manville. Of course this doesn't mean that the other groups will continue to recognize her in lead, but it provides an interesting start to the awards season.

No King's Speech for Best Picture, Actor or Supporting Actor. I guess it 's not your grandfather's NBR any more.

Maybe the Foreign Film award to Of Gods and Men will help get it released in the U.S. - so far it's only been shown at film festivals.

[Mister Tee]

First reactions (apart from the obvious -- that the King's Speech got the bare minimum of acknowledgment, and what does that mean?):

Kids Are All Right, Black Swan, 127 Hours and Get Low fail to qualify even on the indie sub-list. This seems especially hurtful to Kids, to whose sensibility (warm-hearted, unthreatening progressivism) this venue should have been completely hospitable.

Manville's first appearance, and it's in lead. Will this set the tone, or could she be Peggy Ashcroft-ed?

I thought NY and LA were extremely likely to go for Social Network, but thought this group would shy away. That they've fallen so solidly in line makes me wonder if we have an LA Confidential-like season ahead. (Though the National Society might change thjngs up just on principle)

For the second straight year, a highly commercial tilt to the best fims -- Inception, Toy Story, The Town AND Shutter Island.

But Eastwood still rules!

Jacki Weaver will probably need more critics' push to get her barely-seen performance on the Oscar slate. But a good beginning for her. Also a boost in Eisenberg's not-assured best actor campaign.

First Film and Original Screenplay seem unusually whimsical choces for his group.

Doesn't The Ghost Writer look a bit out of place on that fairly hard-core indie list?

[Greg]

I called it first!

[ITALIANO]

... But I hope it's true that Of Gods and Men has won Foreign Film. It represents a completely different view of cinema from The Social Network, one I feel much closer to. Truly a good movie.

[Mister Tee]

EDITED: My instinct was correct. Last couple of lists added.

From IndieWire.
I think the last part must be a typo, as they are all foreign films, not indies.

Best Film: The Social Network

Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network

Best Actor: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Best Actress: Lesley Manville, Another Year

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter

Best Supporting Actress: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Best Foreign Film: Of Gods and Men

Best Documentary: Waiting For “Superman”

Best Animated Feature: “Toy Story 3”

Best Ensemble Cast: The Town

Breakthrough Performance: Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone

Spotlight Award for Best Directorial Debut: Sebastian Junger and Tim Hetherington, Restrepo

Best Original Screenplay: Chris Sparling, Buried

Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network

Special Filmmaking Achievement Award: Sofia Coppola, for for writing, directing, and producing Somewhere

William K. Everson Film History Award: Leonard Maltin

NBR Freedom of Expression: Fair Game, Conviction, Howl

Top Eleven Films (In alphabetical order):
Another Year
The Fighter
Hereafter
Inception
The King’s Speech
Shutter Island
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

Top Ten Independent Films (In alphabetical order):
Animal Kingdom
Buried
Fish Tank
The Ghost Writer
Greenberg
Let Me In
Monsters
Please Give
Somewhere
Youth in Revolt

Top Six Foreign Films (In alphabetical order):
I Am Love
Incendies
Life, Above All
Of Gods And Men
Soul Kitchen
White Material

Top Six Documentary Films (In alphabetical order):
A Film Unfinished
Inside Job
Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work
Restrepo
The Tillman Story
Waiting For “Superman”



Edited By Mister Tee on 1291322562