NBR Thoughts/Predictions

[FilmFan720]

While I don't think that a loss here for The King's Speech would summon its doom as much as it did for Atonement, it can't hurt. What The King's Speech has going for it are the solid, nomination-obvious performances that are guiding it along. Atonement didn't have any one, even this early, who seemed to scream out for nomination, whereas Colin Firth alone could drive this film into major contention by way of his possibly sweeping precursor awards (see The Queen).

[Mister Tee]

Saints preserve us, NBR comes tomorrow. The season is upon us.

The first question ought to be, why so early? They could delay this announcement a full week and still maintain their beloved "First!" status. It's very odd they insist on rushing out like this...especially since it often means they exclude a film or two from consideration. As it is, they jump start the season, then everything goes into hibernation for ten days. Silly.

Anyway, a few thought/musings on how (or why) I think things will turn out, followed by the year's first dread "predictions".

Back in '07, when Atonement failed to win NBR, Italiano quickly (and correctly) announced the film's chance at winning the best picture Oscar had disappeared. If this hopelessly Anglo-period-phile group -- a group that had chosen every one of A Room With a View, Howard's End and Sense and Sensibility as the year's best -- failed to go for the film, it had zero chance with a broader AMPAS electorate. Atonement did revive enough to win the Globe and get Oscar nominations in top categories, but it was, by Oscar night, an afterthought in the main race. NBR's snub did, in fact, signal its doom.

My question: doesn't this same "it better win NBR" criterion apply in spades to The King's Speech? From what I can see, Hooper's film is even more in NBR's wheelhouse than Atonement. The latter had that messy McEwan post-modern ending to offset its appeal. King's Speech, by all reports, is straight-up "inspiring", offering a warm-fuzzy take on both British royalty and The Noble War. If NBR voters were not to choose it, it would constitute a revolution. Now, I fully expect the group to come through for it. But there's always that 1-in-100 shot it opts for something else, despite all Harvey Weinstein's pleading. If so, are we going to detect the first chink in the film's armor?

I'm very sorry NBR has discarded the 2-through-10 aspect of its runner-up list in favour of alphabetical. Often their second choice was the more bracing one -- the film that excited their more adventuresome members -- and not infrequently was a late-opening film for which they offered the first words of support. I'm thinking of films like the Talented Mr. Ripley, Traffic, The Aviator and Brokeback Mountain. The Social Network seems the obvious candidate for that slot this year, but it's possible it might have gone to something else -- The Fighter, True Grit, whatever. It's disappointing we can no longer tell from their list which film this "rebel" faction might have tried to boost.

Guessing at the remainder of the group's top ten is a tricky balancing act. You want to include films that might have made a traditional Academy top five -- like 127 Hours, True Grit or The Fighter. You want to pick out a precocious indie or two -- I've gone with The Kids Are All Right and Get Low, but many might have opted for Winter's Bone instead. You should consider a strictly entertaining movie, like such past choices as The Rainmaker or The Bourne Ultimatum -- I considered Inception and The Town, but finally settled on The Ghost Writer as having a bit more classy pedigree. There's the possibility of a marginally edgier effort slipping in (like Happiness and Three Kings back in the day). Here you'd have to consider Black Swan or Blue Valentine...but I've decided to stay more within bounds and select Another Year. And, finally, you have to face the fact they've been absolute whores for Clint Eastwood over the past decade -- not just with solid choices like Mystic River and Letters from Iwo Jima, but extending to Invictus, Flags of Our Fathers and even Changeling. Thus, though almost no one would put Hereafter on a serious year's-best list, you have to be tempted to slot it here, and I have.

As far as other categories: Those of us with long memories recall lots of "multiple" picks by NBR -- whether paired winners (like DeNiro and Williams in Awakenings, Hurt and Julia in Kiss of the Spider Woman), or individuals with several credits in one year (Anne Heche in '97, Philip Seymour Hoffman in '99, Cate Blanchett in '01). Note, however, that those examples stop around the beginning of the past decade. I wonder if those traditions might be dead. However...I'll take one more stab with them this year -- going for the Kids Are All Right duo, and thinking Andrew Garfield might be rewarded for his one-two punch over the more NBR-obvious pick of Geoffrey Rush.

David Fincher is the sort of director the group often selects, but I'm thinking his being their pick just two years ago will persuade them to look elsewhere...perhaps to the man who won their best picture prize that year, Danny Boyle.

NBR used to make more off-center choices for screenplay, but of late they've stayed close to the main race, so I'm picking the obvious two.

Breakthrough performance seems, as usual, a spot to put young-ish lead actor/actress contenders, removing them from the primary competition

Okay, enough preamble. My picks. Looking forward to others chiming in


Best Film: The King's Speech.

Other 10 (alphabetically):
Another Year
The Fighter
Get Low
The Ghost Writer
Hereafter
The Kids Are All Right
127 Hours
Rabbit Hole
The Social Network
True Grit

Alternates:
Inception, The Town, Blue Valentine, Winter's Bone

Best Actor: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
ru: James Franco (127 Hours)

Best Actress: Annette Bening and Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right)
ru: Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)

Best Supporting Actor: Andrew Garfield (The Social Network) & (Never Let Me Go)
ru: Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)

Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
ru: Lesley Manville (Another Year)

Best Director: Danny Boyle (127 Hours)
ru: David Fincher (The Social Network)

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
ru: Rabbit Hole

Best Original Screenplay: The King's Speech
ru: The Kids Are All Right

Best Ensemble: The King's Speech
ru: The Social Network

Breakthrough - Male: Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
ru: Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)

Breakthrough - Female: Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
ru: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)

Best First Film: Get Low
ru: Blue Valentine

Best Documentary: Waiting for Superman
ru: Client 9, Inside Job, Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work, The Tillman Story

Best Foreign Language Film: I Am Love
ru: Biutiful, Carlos, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Uncle Boonmee

Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
ru: How to Train Your Dragon