How Things Look After Toronto

[Reza]

Plus, surveying all the other offerings this year, it's probably the Academy's only chance to nominate a non-white performer (if that's, you know, their thing).

Eric are you American?

[Eric]

Plus, surveying all the other offerings this year, it's probably the Academy's only chance to nominate a non-white performer (if that's, you know, their thing).

[danfrank]

For Colored Girls has the Tyler Perry seal of approval. Not to mention a phenomenal cast of noted black actresses, plus, from the preview, it doesn't look like your typical Perry film. It actually looks more mature and worldly than before. Now, it could just as easily tank with critics, but I wonder if it could be this year's Precious.

No way. This started out as a play in which seven nameless black women, identified only by the color of their clothes, "woman in red", "woman in yellow", etc., recite twenty poems about the black female experience. It was adapted for television in 1982 with an expanded cast but still featured unknown actresses in the principal roles.

Though a powerful stage experience - it won the Tony for Best Play - it is too theatrical to be more than a niche success on screen - think Give 'Em Hell Harry or The Man in the Glass Booth.

The star-studded cast actually works against the story of struggling, nameless women it is supposed to be about.

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see this pull a supporting actress nomination. I'll go out on a limb and make a wild guess: Anika Noni Rose.



Edited By danfrank on 1284960503

[Eric]

Howl doesn't give Franco all that much to do but be absolutely adorable, recite lines from "Howl" and speak to an off-camera interviewer while emoting from his wrists. The Boyle pic has got to be his best actor vehicle, to be totally honest.

(And meanwhile ... speaking of "my, but that was a short year," I'm already sick to death of hearing about The King's Speech. Rarely have I seen a movie with such solid fest buzz look like it has less to offer me.)

The nightmare continues. It just won TIFF's audience award.

I would've put money down on that. (I should've put money down on that.)

I'll also second the line of thought that holds Jeremy Renner in The Town is a good deal of fun, but certainly not showstopping enough to coast to a nod on mere leftover goodwill. Blake Lively is probably MVP, but no Amy Ryan.

[FilmFan720]

I'll put Philicia Rashad out there as a dark horse supporting actress candidate

[flipp525]

For Colored Girls has the Tyler Perry seal of approval. Not to mention a phenomenal cast of noted black actresses, plus, from the preview, it doesn't look like your typical Perry film. It actually looks more mature and worldly than before. Now, it could just as easily tank with critics, but I wonder if it could be this year's Precious.

No way. This started out as a play in which seven nameless black women, identified only by the color of their clothes, "woman in red", "woman in yellow", etc., recite twenty poems about the black female experience. It was adapted for television in 1982 with an expanded cast but still featured unknown actresses in the principal roles.

Though a powerful stage experience - it won the Tony for Best Play - it is too theatrical to be more than a niche success on screen - think Give 'Em Hell Harry or The Man in the Glass Booth.

The star-studded cast actually works against the story of struggling, nameless women it is supposed to be about.

That doesn't mean there can't be a great performance in there somewhere. I mean, that is quite a roster of African-American female powerhouses.

And lest we forget, your track record in this milieu is certainly not infallible (i.e. Mo'Nique).



Edited By flipp525 on 1284946996

[Big Magilla]

For Colored Girls has the Tyler Perry seal of approval. Not to mention a phenomenal cast of noted black actresses, plus, from the preview, it doesn't look like your typical Perry film. It actually looks more mature and worldly than before. Now, it could just as easily tank with critics, but I wonder if it could be this year's Precious.

No way. This started out as a play in which seven nameless black women, identified only by the color of their clothes, "woman in red", "woman in yellow", etc., recite twenty poems about the black female experience. It was adapted for television in 1982 with an expanded cast but still featured unknown actresses in the principal roles.

Though a powerful stage experience - it won the Tony for Best Play - it is too theatrical to be more than a niche success on screen - think Give 'Em Hell Harry or The Man in the Glass Booth.

The star-studded cast actually works against the story of struggling, nameless women it is supposed to be about.



Edited By Big Magilla on 1284941690

[Sabin]

The Town is not a heavyweight. It's an entertaining heist film that doesn't deliver anything unexpected. Everyone in the cast is fine, but there are no indelible portraits like in Gone Baby Gone. It's the kind of sophomore slump that feels like the movie we should have expected him to come out of the gate with.

[OscarGuy]

For Colored Girls has the Tyler Perry seal of approval. Not to mention a phenomenal cast of noted black actresses, plus, from the preview, it doesn't look like your typical Perry film. It actually looks more mature and worldly than before. Now, it could just as easily tank with critics, but I wonder if it could be this year's Precious.

[FilmFan720]

Eric, I know how you feel about King's Speech. The reason I referenced NBR is because the film looks to epitomize the safe, stuffy style they've long championed. I only hope the film can surprise me the way Shakespeare in Love did. If it's just Masterpiece Theatre in 60mm, I'll find it hard to work up enthusiasm.

The King's Speech won the Audience Award at Toronto today...its Best Picture chances are even more solidified now!

[FilmFan720]

The Blind Side was, of course, a commercial phenomenon, which I can't see any of the films you mentioned matching. If any film could achieve that status, it's probably Secretariat.

For Colored Girls...

[Okri]

I've just come back from The Town, and I take back what I said about Renner. He's good but not particularly award-worthy (I preferred Hamm, truth be told, but I'd be surprised if any cast member gets singled out for AMPAS).

[Mister Tee]

flipp, I think maybe you're misinterpreting my use of "80%". I certainly didn't mean to indicate the results of the race are at that level of certainty. Of course those things will remain in flux till December. I only meant what Magilla inferred: that 80% or better of the films that are going to figure in this year's race have already been screened by critics. If you can come up with something beyond those five titles I've indicated, you might convince me it's more open, but that's how I see it. And it's startling for those of us who can remember back when the main best picture rivals didn't turn up till November and December.

Filmfan, I have to disagree with both your points. Miral got pretty universally poor reviews -- of the films I cited, only The Tempest, Kind of a Funny Story and What's Wrong with Virginia? were eviscerated worse. Somewhere was met with a general shrug except by a guy who used to sleep with the director. I'd be very surprised if either film made impact. Never Let Me Go is a real sadness for me. I truly loved the novel, and tried to find silver linings in the initial reviews. But the preponderance of opinion was simply not best picture nominee level, and the opening weekend figure, while not awful, is below what's needed ($30,000 per would be acceptable if it was a 15-20 theatre release, but not 4). I still fully intend to see it, but I don't feel any picture heat, even with ten slots.

As far as last year -- The Messenger is the one legitimate late fall surprise we've seen in the past few years. The Last Station was screened at Telluride, and singled out for precisely the two performances that got nominated (though it was unclear the year would be so weak both would last till the finals). And, though I can't remember which, I know Crazy Heart was screened at some festival, because Kris Tapley was promoting it all Fall. The Blind Side was, of course, a commercial phenomenon, which I can't see any of the films you mentioned matching. If any film could achieve that status, it's probably Secretariat.

okri, I don't know about Renner, but I think The Town has a mild hope of cracking a best picture ten, if it's commercial success continues.

Eric, I know how you feel about King's Speech. The reason I referenced NBR is because the film looks to epitomize the safe, stuffy style they've long championed. I only hope the film can surprise me the way Shakespeare in Love did. If it's just Masterpiece Theatre in 60mm, I'll find it hard to work up enthusiasm.

[Big Magilla]

"It's a long, long time from May to December, but the days grow short when you reach September." - September Song.

True, there are often last minute surprises, but for every Blind Side or Crazy Heart there a dozen hopefuls that fail to pique much interest. This year, except for presumably can't miss hits like Love and Other Drugs, producers aren't taking chances on last minute hit-or-miss releases and getting their hopefuls seen early.

While it would be fool-hardy to predict with absolute certainty what's going to happen at year end, it's not at all too early to speculate. I think it's a fair assessment to say that 80% of the potential nominees have now been seen by the critics and bloggers is accurate. What we have yet to see is the impact these films will have on the box office which can sometimes affect awards positioning as much as critics' likes or dislikes.

Of my predictions of a week ago, I'd say 127 Hours, The Fighter, The King's Speech, Love and Other Drugs and The Social Network are solid contenders , while Black Swan, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, Somewhere and Toy Story 3 are vulnerable. In fact I'm ready now to replace Somewhere with The Town and Inception with Rabbit Hole. Will much more change in the best picture race? Probably, but probably between films we're already aware of.

The acting categories are still in flux. A lot depends not just on critical assessments and box office, but on publicity campaigns. Will they like Christian Bale all the more for his integrity in refusing to sell himself? Will they like Nicole Kidman less because she appears on every talk show that will have her? Only time will tell which way the wind blows.



Edited By Big Magilla on 1284918848

[Sonic Youth]

Howl doesn't give Franco all that much to do but be absolutely adorable, recite lines from "Howl" and speak to an off-camera interviewer while emoting from his wrists. The Boyle pic has got to be his best actor vehicle, to be totally honest.

(And meanwhile ... speaking of "my, but that was a short year," I'm already sick to death of hearing about The King's Speech. Rarely have I seen a movie with such solid fest buzz look like it has less to offer me.)

The nightmare continues. It just won TIFF's audience award.