How Things Look After Toronto

Okri
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Post by Okri »

I don't think Never Let Me Go is dead, but I think it's a longshot candidate for a best picture nomination. Mixed reviews really hurt, and if last year is anything to go by, three of the "next five" are basically producer's films, there on the grace of gross

Tee, I think Jeremy Renner is someone to take seriously. The Town is doing better than expected review-wise and he's got some career heat from last year. I think a critics award or two could materialize and put him in the race.




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Post by FilmFan720 »

I agree. Pardon my faulty memory if I am wrong on some things, but it seems to me that at this time last year, some of the future nominees that were barely on the radar included The Blind Side, The Last Station, Crazy Heart, and The Messenger.
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Post by flipp525 »

FilmFan720 wrote:Tee, I am so surprised that you, one of the great gripers of the shortened Oscar season and lack of surprise, are so quick to cast so many of these films off. I think Never Let Me Go, Somewhere and Miral are all still deep in the running, especially with a 10-film slate.

Agreed, FilmFan. I think pronouncing Never Let Me Go dead on arrival at this stage is not a good call.

Also, count me in as one of those surprised by the overall tone of this post. Haven't we learned by now that nothing is as it seems in September? "80%" seems to be pushing it.




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Post by FilmFan720 »

Tee, I am so surprised that you, one of the great gripers of the shortened Oscar season and lack of surprise, are so quick to cast so many of these films off. I think Never Let Me Go, Somewhere and Miral are all still deep in the running, especially with a 10-film slate.
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Post by The Original BJ »

A couple friends of mine worked on The Fighter, and have seen it: they're both very enthusiastic, and think it's a likely Oscar candidate in multiple categories. They've especially raved about Christian Bale, who's going to get the strongest acting push from the studio, though apparently Bale isn't interested in doing much publicity for the film. Not that that hurt Mo'Nique any.

I think Jacki Weaver's chances rest on how many people see Animal Kingdom. If there's a decent screener blitz, and some year-end critical attention, I could definitely see her placing. I thought her wickedly sweet monster mom was a fascinating character -- not at the level of last year's winner, but certainly nomination-worthy. It's a really good role and she's very good in it, so it'll come down to whether voters are exposed to her work. But, as you said, Mister Tee, the film didn't make much of a mark, and unless there's renewed buzz by year's end, it'll be an uphill battle, especially in support.

Is Never Let Me Go really totally dead? I saw it this evening and quite liked it.
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Post by Damien »

Mister Tee wrote:I feel a need to paraphrase her, and say, Damn but that was a short year.
Next year is going to be even shorter.
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Post by Eric »

Howl doesn't give Franco all that much to do but be absolutely adorable, recite lines from "Howl" and speak to an off-camera interviewer while emoting from his wrists. The Boyle pic has got to be his best actor vehicle, to be totally honest.

(And meanwhile ... speaking of "my, but that was a short year," I'm already sick to death of hearing about The King's Speech. Rarely have I seen a movie with such solid fest buzz look like it has less to offer me.)




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Post by OscarGuy »

Here's a question. If Howl is released this year, do you think it more likely that Franco will make it in for that film instead?
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Post by Sabin »

My writing partner has watched 127 Hours, Black Swan, Rabbit Hole, and the new Kelly Reichardt film Meek's Cutoff at Toronto. He says the latter is the best of the fest by a substantial margin after the Wavelength program. I haven't been able to talk to him much about it, but he says it's essentially Oregon Trail: The Movie...but dazzling, dazzling, dazzling. The best of the year after Dogtooth and Everyone Else.

He says Rabbit Hole is absolutely fantastic, the best work that Nicole Kidman has done in years, and very good work from Sandra Oh, Dianne Wiest, and especially Aaron Eckhart. He says there is nothing play-like about it, and it succeeds in being cathartic and also hilarious at times. He says if there are ten nominations, it's guaranteed a Best Picture mention, and Kidman, Eckhart, and either Oh or Wiest are very likely.

He didn't like 127 Hours, but he says it is better than Slumdog Millionaire, a total Academy crowd-pleaser, and that James Franco is immensely likable and a good bet for Best Actor.

Black Swan is insane apparently. Just a batshit movie with some very good moments, but very loud and silly. Natalie Portman isn't believable as a ballet dancer, but she is very committed to the role. He's very dubious of its chances.
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Post by Big Magilla »

We have most of these in our CinemaSight predictions. Most of us left out Rabbit Hole as it didn't have a distribution deal when we to press. While The Social Network is a solid bet for Best Picture, Director and Screenplay, I'm not sure any of the actors will place.

The one performance that everyone keeps ignoring is Vanessa Redgrave in Letter to Juliet. Granted it's not her greatest performances, but it's a lovely little gem of the type that appeals to actors more than critics. She may well be this year's dark horse in the always surprising supporting actress category.




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Post by Mister Tee »

Many of you may recall a silly joke Blanche tells in Streetcar, the punchline of which is a parrot saying "Damn, but that was a short day". After the last two weeks – the flurry of films screened at Telluride, Venice and Toronto, plus ubiquitous postings about The Social Network – I feel a need to paraphrase her, and say, Damn but that was a short year.

While not much more than two weeks ago, we had at most 20-25% of the Oscar race in sight (best picture contenders Inception, The Kids Are All Right and Toy Story 3, and performance hopefuls in Winter's Bone and Get Low), now I think that number would have to be pushed to 80% or better. It's extraordinary, even in modern times, to see such a high a percentage of those films with even a chance of figuring in this year's race would marched before judges and given the year-or-nay in a two week or so period. We're in the middle of September; how did we get to endgame so fast? (If you wonder how I got to this high percentage estimate...I'd say, even being generous, there are only a handful of films not yet screened for critics and bloggers that stand much chance of making a run: Love and Other Drugs, Secretariat, True Grit, How Do You Know? and The Fighter. If you can think of more, let me know)

Of course, for most of us, it's only a virtual race as yet, and will remain that way for some time. A good many of the films attracting praise at the festivals won't be in release till Thanksgiving or later; two buzzed titles – Another Year and Blue Valentine – in fact open on December 31st, making them almost literally next-year entries. So, how we feel about them – what we care to root for – will not be apparent for a while. But meantime, a relatively solid Oscar framework has been established, and that's the reality in which we're all going to be living from here on.

Before I touch on the apparent contenders in top categories, a quick hail-and-farewell/we-hardly-knew-ye for films that didn't survive this 17-day demolition derby. These are films that sat on many hopeful lists all Spring/summer, but disintegrated on contact with critical audiences – It's Kind of a Funny Story, Never Let Me Go, Hereafter, Conviction, What's Wrong With Virginia?, Miral, Somewhere (despite Tarantino's attempt to goose it), Brighton Rock, The Tempest. It's not like all of these are supposed to be awful– some, like The Tempest, are, but others just evoked the dread "mixed notices". Either way, in Oscar terms, the most anyone should expect from any of these is a long-shot push -- Sam Rockwell's supporting turn in Conviction has perhaps the best chance. It's rather sad, to watch so many films evaporate in a short period.

But what remains suggest we might get a decent Oscar slate next February – at least a more inspiring one than in some recent years. There seems to be such near-unanimous enthusiasm for three films -- The King's Speech, 127 Hours, and, though it hasn't quite run the gauntlet of "real critics", The Social Network – that for right now you'd pencil all three in for film/director nominations. After that, it becomes iffier – especially since we're not yet fully conversant in how the slate-of-10 works. Black Swan, for instance, has many vociferous supporters, but it's hard to tell if its out-there-ness will render it a Blue Velvet to Academy folk, or whether its thriller qualities can get it more widespread notice than simply for Portman's performance. Another Year and Rabbit Hole are potential acting/writing nominees that could make it onto the top list, along with the three summer carryovers (Inception, Kids and Toy Story). Then, of course, one hopes something emerges among the year end releases. Many people are touting The Fighter based on its trailer, which has always struck me as the silliest way short of a ouija board to predict a film's success. But it might as well be that as anything else. At least we don't appear to be in a situation like last year, where we relied so heavily on a batch of late releases that the field seemed dead when so many of them fell flat.

Best actor has gone from thinly populated -- Robert Duvall plus critics' buzz for Gosling in Blue Valentine – to a respectable field. Clearly most singled-out at Toronto were Colin Firth for King's Speech and James Franco for 127 Hours; you have to figure both are nearly set for nominations. Meanwhile, in NY and LA, people who loved The Social Network seem pretty wild for Jesse Eisenberg. (I know, based on past performance that seems a head-scratcher, but it's what people are saying) After that it's hazier -- some critics were strong for Paul Giamatti in Barney's Version, but I'm not even sure that's getting a ‘10 release. And beyond that you have to look to those year-end releases -- Jake Gyllenhaal, Jeff Bridges and Mark Wahlberg will rise or fall with their films. In the end, we'll probably have a solid best actor race, if not one for the ages. And I'd have to agree, for now, that Colin Firth -- coming off as year-ago nomination, appearing in a film that touches the sweet spot for AMPAS' NBR-like core -- would be the strongest possibility.

Then there's the lead actress category, which looks like it might bounce back from last year's dreariness to give us an all-time race. (Or, contrarily, disappoint us by leaving off spectacularly meritorious contenders in favor of mediocre ones) We of course went into festival season with three solid contenders already: Bening, Moore and Lawrence. After these two-plus weeks, we have an embarrassment of riches. Clearly Natalie Portman has pushed herself to top tier with her widely acclaimed Black Swan work; the question is, can she go all the way, or is the film too outre for a certain class of voters? Not on the same potential-win level, but with a strong chance at nomination, is Nicole Kidman, winning over most critics with a role that's already won a Tony for Cynthia Nixon. Lesley Manville in Another Year has also been widely hailed, but some think she could be slated in support, and, given the glut, Sony may choose to do just that. The glut may also affect Michele Williams, who received relatively equivalent Blue Valentine praise to her co-star's, but is fighting on a much tougher field. (How tough? Rachel Weisz and The Whistleblower got ovations at Toronto, but there's no move to even open the film this year) In this context, Made in Dagenham sounds a bit minor, but you never know – there are voters for whom something "nice" might come as welcome contrast, and they could get Sally Hawkins in this time around. As far as the remainder of the year – we all know Anne Hathaway's been touted for months, but maybe her publicist is starting to think he needs to get her out there before a narrative sets in that leaves her out. And, while James Brooks has brought several actresses to leading Oscar nods, Reese Witherspoon may find this year's heavyweight field too much to compete with.

Among supporting men, we already had Mark Ruffalo as strong possibility, and now we've got additions. I can safely predict daily meetings of the God I Hate Geoffrey Rush club, as he seems a no-doubter for The Kings's Speech. Andrew Garfield also appears poised to break through for The Social Network; the surprise is, a lot of folks think Justin Timberlake might join him in a double nod for the film. EW has begun to push Aaron Eckhart's Rabbit Hole performance in this secondary slot. It may be category fraud, but it'd given him a decent chance. And, I mentioned, there's some talk of Sam Rockwell in Conviction. I'd think he'd need two things: 1) a respectable (i.e., above Amelia) gross and 2) at least some critics' mention. From the Christmas crop, some are touting Matt Damon (again!), and there's a loud push for Christian Bale, again based on the trailer, but also apparently from the script. As I say, I don't do futures.

You tell me if I should consider Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom. She got some critical notice, though not enough to knock you over. And the film has just disappeared – gone from my Upper West Side neighborhood in under two weeks. Minus a critics' prize, I don't see how something making that tiny an impression can score. From the Telluride/Venice/Toronto crew, Helena Bonham Carter has almost surely worked her way into the race. By most accounts, two-time winner Dianne Wiest has a strong shot, and I've heard some advocate for Miranda Richardson in Made in Dagenham. The Black Swan ladies are a question mark – will either be considered, and, if so, is it Kunis or Hershey? Or both? Manville, if placed in this category, would probably be a very strong prospect to win, let alone be nominated. As for what's still to come: some are pushing the Kim Darby replacement in True Grit, but I'm not taking taking that one seriously till I see glowing reviews. The strongest likelihood to produce a nominee would appear to be The Fighter, which has two recent Oscar veterans, Melissa Leo and Amy Adams, in its cast.

And that's how I see it today. Anyone pick up on something I've missed?
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