Dipping a Toe in the Oscar Pool

Okri
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Post by Okri »

Oscar Bloggers don't like Hilary Swank or Whoopi Goldburg all that much.
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OscarGuy
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Post by OscarGuy »

I think most of it is more the "conventional wisdom" thing. They can't think outside of the box when it comes to splitting actresses (or actors) in co-lead roles into the lead/support narrative. With so many instances in the recent past, it's hard to argue with that. 1991 may be too long ago for them to really consider the possibility.

The Kids Are All Right is definitely getting better notices than I expected. I still can't believe they released it in July. Can it really be remembered for that long?
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Post by Mister Tee »

Yes, it's still ludicrously early to do any serious Oscar-prognosticating, but I've had a few thoughts percolating, and thought I'd throw them onto the screen.

1) The expansion to 10 nominees has the effect of starting the race earlier.

I wouldn't be willing to push any of the year's releases-to-date for a classic top-five best picture nod. Toy Story 3 would be fighting not only the animated label that did in Wall E, but also the one-in-a-series factor that hobbled The Dark Knight. But I don't see how something so extravagantly praised and successful can miss a slot in the ten.

We're still a week ahead for Inception, but the advance praise has been so extravagant -- and the fan-base so certain -- that it seems likely to also strongly contend. Again, maybe not in a top five, but, seeing District 9 made the ten last year, Nolan's latest looks strong.

Maybe the most solid, Academy-like entry to date is The Kids Are All Right, which got even better reviews than I'd anticipated, and had long lines all afternoon at the midtown theatre where I saw Winter's Bone (a theatre where an NY Times review can still fill seats). But even it could have been a borderline entry in an earlier year -- perhaps a film/no director nominee a la Little Miss Sunshine. But right now it looks very good to cruise to a nomination.

2) We're rediscovering actresses.

Jennifer Lawrence has been treated to star-is-born reviews for Winter's Bone. Bening and Moore were both praised to the skies for Kids. There's been tremendous advance praise for Lesley Manville in Another Year and Michele Williams in Blue Valentine, and equally impressive buzz for Anne Hathaway in Love and Other Drugs. On top of that, some of our best actresses -- Robin Wright, Nicole Kidman -- have high-profile projects coming in. Maybe for once we won't even have to pretend to care about what Hillary Swank is turning out this year.

3) The Oscar bloggers are pissing me off.

Apropos best actress...I thought, for once, we'd get an honest slotting, as no one seems to dispute that Moore and Bening are co-leads in Kids -- and, by all accounts, neither Bening nor Moore have any intention of demoting themselves to goose Oscar chances. Great, I thought; refreshing. Well, not according to numerous commenters at Sasha's and Tapley's sites -- they're LIVID that Moore is not running for supporting. Apparently it's her DUTY to put herself there, to not only improve her own chances, but also to prevent Bening from being the victim of a split ballot. So...one of the rare times studios/starts don't try to perpetrate fraud, the Oscar bloggers are doing the dirty work for them.

4) Speaking of which -- on what planet is Annette Bening so overdue for an Oscar?

This is a constant refrain at those sites and Nathaniel's Film Experience. Bening, by them, has been screwed over for best actress more than anyone -- forgetting, apparently, Winger, Close, Pfeiffer, Weaver, Moore... At first I thought this might be one of those gay things I don't understand, but this site has its share of gay representation, and Bening has shown very poorly in our best actress polls -- running third in '99 and fourth in '04. (All the other I noted, save Winger, have won one of our polls) What accounts for Bening's vocal support, which is the subtext of much of this "Moore MUST go in supporting"?
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