Categories One-by-One: Best Actress

Hustler
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Postby Hustler » Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:45 pm

Common sense indicates that she must win.

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Postby Big Magilla » Thu Feb 18, 2010 9:54 pm

I don't think she needs a miracle. Common sense should prevail.

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Postby Hustler » Thu Feb 18, 2010 9:12 pm

I´m still hoping for a miracle that let Meryl win.

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Postby Damien » Thu Feb 18, 2010 7:00 pm

Having now seen The Blind Side, I am absolutely convinced that Sandra Bullock will be your Best Actress winner.

I think a lot of voters will conflate the actress with her character and make this an Oscar for spunkiness rather than histrionics. I like Tee's Ginger Rogers analogy, and I'd also add Sally Field in Norma Rae (although that performances was hailed by reviewers).

There's no denying that The Blind Side has struck an emotional code with many people, and with Bullock the heart and soul of that picture she wins.

Neither Carey Mulligan nor Gabourey Sidibe has had the impact that a newcomer needs to take Best Actress, and Helen Mirren is just filling up space.

As for Streep, she would seem to be more respected than loved and her movie has not had the same impact as Bullock's. It's very impressive work -- she captures both the deep humor and the humanity of Julia Child, but it's possible that too many people will see the performance as more of an impersonation/caricature. And John Candy did a great job with the same role on SCTV.
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Postby Big Magilla » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:03 pm

LOL.

It's just that the Oscars have become so predictable. Not since 2005 when Crash won Best Picture over Brokeback Mountain has there been any real surprise. I liked the idea of a Bullock win when it seemed like it would be something that started with the Globes and SAG Awards that no one seriously thought would translate into an Oscar win.

But when the Broadcast Critics gave her candidacy legitimacy it might not otherwise have had by giving her their award in tandem with Streep, followed by the Globes and SAGs, and she suddenly became the front-runner, it was time to reassess.

So having been responsible for letting the genie out of the bottle, yes, I'm trying to get her back in before she does some real damage.

On the other hand, if this year's show turns out to be the shambles everyone thinks it will be, giving an Oscar to the wrong actress would merely be the cherry on the top of the sundae.

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Postby Greg » Wed Feb 17, 2010 5:36 pm

Yah, why is Magilla trying to spoil all our fun by raining on our train-wreck parade?
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Postby Mister Tee » Wed Feb 17, 2010 4:32 pm

ITALIANO wrote:I don't know, maybe it's me, but the more I read Big Magilla's posts predicting at length Streep's victory, the more my eyes see Sandra Bullock smiling and clutching an Oscar... Ok, let's hope that for once he's right.

It's almost as if Magilla -- the first person I knew to raise the prospect of a Bullock victory -- is horrified by the Frankenstein monster he's set in motion.

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Postby Sonic Youth » Wed Feb 17, 2010 4:31 pm

Big Magilla wrote:Yes, Meryl can wait one more time, but not for Sandy.

Pundits are mis-reading Sandy's SAG Award as though that is proof positive that actors are more in favor of her winning than Meryl this year.

The primary reason Sandy, and not Meryl, won the SAG is because Meryl already has three of those damn things including one for last year's Doubt.

Early on, before she became the cult favorite, Sandy had the underdog thing going for her, but not any more.

Yes, SAG members Wanda Waitress and Gus Gaspump, who don't see much work as actors, would be inclined to vote for an underdog representing their greatest hope for their own fortunes at the SAGs, but working actors who know the difference between a good performance that just happens to strike the public's fancy and an accomplished one that takes a little something extra like Meryl's not turning Julia Child into a caricature, will vote for Meryl even if they should be voting for Tilda or Helen...but that's another story.

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Postby ITALIANO » Wed Feb 17, 2010 4:28 pm

I don't know, maybe it's me, but the more I read Big Magilla's posts predicting at length Streep's victory, the more my eyes see Sandra Bullock smiling and clutching an Oscar... Ok, let's hope that for once he's right.

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Postby Big Magilla » Wed Feb 17, 2010 4:16 pm

Yes, Meryl can wait one more time, but not for Sandy.

Pundits are mis-reading Sandy's SAG Award as though that is proof positive that actors are more in favor of her winning than Meryl this year.

The primary reason Sandy, and not Meryl, won the SAG is because Meryl already has three of those damn things including one for last year's Doubt.

Early on, before she became the cult favorite, Sandy had the underdog thing going for her, but not any more.

Yes, SAG members Wanda Waitress and Gus Gaspump, who don't see much work as actors, would be inclined to vote for an underdog representing their greatest hope for their own fortunes at the SAGs, but working actors who know the difference between a good performance that just happens to strike the public's fancy and an accomplished one that takes a little something extra like Meryl's not turning Julia Child into a caricature, will vote for Meryl even if they should be voting for Tilda or Helen...but that's another story.

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Postby The Original BJ » Wed Feb 17, 2010 3:34 pm

mashari wrote:This is the one category in which there are few surprises and the media hype and enthusiastic ovations Sandra has been getting are clear enough indications for me that most actors will be checking off her name, especially with Roger Ebert now a supporter.

Oh god, Roger Ebert's involved now. It's over. Let's just get it done with.

I do anticipate that this will be a win -- like Crash/Robert Benigni -- that the media will almost instantly turn against despite having overwhelmingly encouraged.

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Postby mashari » Wed Feb 17, 2010 2:47 pm

This is the one category in which there are few surprises and the media hype and enthusiastic ovations Sandra has been getting are clear enough indications for me that most actors will be checking off her name, especially with Roger Ebert now a supporter. He was no doubt instrumental in Berry, Theron, and Swank's(second) campaigns.

Meryl's team is trying to put up a good fight with ads and word of mouth, but I seriously doubt it will be enough. Overall the Academy will feel she can wait one more time.




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Postby Reza » Wed Feb 17, 2010 2:24 am

Big Magilla wrote:My current prediction: Streep will win her third Oscar and Bullock will lead the standing ovation which will be among the most heartfelt and sustained in Oscar history.

My prediction is the exact opposite. I think it will be Streep leading a standing ovation for Bullock. Although I can't gurantee if it will be heartfelt or sustained.




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Postby Zahveed » Tue Feb 16, 2010 5:24 pm

Sorry, not Bullock. Her character. I don't know any real person like Palin. They're all fictional. Even if they are based on non-fictional persons.
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Postby OscarGuy » Tue Feb 16, 2010 4:12 pm

Don't equate Bullock to Palin. It's a very unfair comparison.

And Italiano, the word is subjectively. Use it. Objectively is not the appropriate term if even, subjectively, you think it is.
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