Directors Guild Predictions

[OscarGuy]

So, I don't think I've seen it mentioned here, but apparently, Lee Daniels is the first black director nominated by the DGA...

Not Spike Lee. Not John Singleton...Lee Daniels.

[FilmFan720]

So much for everyone who claimed Precious had lost its steam.

Well, it had lost steam...only now it is getting a boost and picking steam back up

[Damien]

So much for everyone who claimed Precious had lost its steam.

[Zahveed]

Bueno.

[OscarGuy]

Some time in late Summer 2009, I changed the format over to a more blog-like environment. It's faster to post, which makes it easier to comment and such whereas the old way required me to re-edit the html document and re-post it, so it took far more time and thus I was less inclined to update.



Edited By OscarGuy on 1262894833

[Zahveed]

Also, I wouldn't mind a Cameron drop.



Edited By Zahveed on 1262893440

[rolotomasi99]

The last decade of non-transitioning directors:

2008: Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
2007: Sean Penn - Into the Wild
2006: Bill Condon - Dreamgirls; Jonathan Dayton, Valerie Faris - Little Miss Sunshine
2004: Marc Forster - Finding Neverland
2003: Gary Ross - Seabiscuit
2002: Peter Jackson - The Two Towers
2001: Baz Luhrmann - Moulin Rouge; Christopher Nolan - Memento
2000: Cameron Crowe - Almost Famous
1999: Frank Darabont - The Green Mile

Looking at this list I think it is interesting that many people are assuming Lee Daniels is going to be dropped when it seems like James Cameron would be the more likely suspect.

Of the 11 films represented on the above list, 5 did not receive a Best Picture nomination while 6 did.

Of the six films on the list above which were nominated for Best Picture but not director, all of them were more mainstream films which were replaced by a director from a more art house film.

Much like Peter Jackson in 2002, I think the directors are far more likely to drop James Cameron and nominate someone like the Coen brothers or Lone Sherfig. Then again, with ten nominees, precedent means less these days.



Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1262893469

[Zahveed]

When did you start doing commentary on your site, OG?

[Big Magilla]

As Colbert would put it -- I CALLED IT!

The expected four, plus Daniels.

As did I.

http://www.oscarguy.com/2010....nations

[Mister Tee]

Who can we expect to be dropped? Daniels?

Dropped from what? The DGA list was always more effective in predicting the best picture nominees, not the director slate. (Several of the years Oscar Guy notes below as exceptions DID match up DGA/Academy best picture) All five here are certainly going to be nominated in this year's slate of ten.

Daniels is the most likely to be left out of the Academy's directing five. He could be replaced by one of the names bandied about here today -- Eastwood, Blomkamp -- or someone more adventurous (for me, the Coens, but your mileage may vary).

People have been saying that, with the best picture expansion, the best director list would become the de facto old-five, but that ignores the history of the lone director. It's probably safer to assume that these DGA picks are the prime best picture contenders, regardless of what other five lucky-duckies join them on Feb 2.

[Zahveed]

Who can we expect to be dropped? Daniels?

[OscarGuy]

I don't think anyone's really that surprised. Even my prediction of Neill Blomkamp was just speculative and mostly wishful thinking. I can rest assured in the fact that the DGA hasn't transferred 100% to the Oscars but 4 times ever (2005, 1998, 1981 & 1977).

The last decade of non-transitioning directors:

2008: Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
2007: Sean Penn - Into the Wild
2006: Bill Condon - Dreamgirls; Jonathan Dayton, Valerie Faris - Little Miss Sunshine
2004: Marc Forster - Finding Neverland
2003: Gary Ross - Seabiscuit
2002: Peter Jackson - The Two Towers
2001: Baz Luhrmann - Moulin Rouge; Christopher Nolan - Memento
2000: Cameron Crowe - Almost Famous
1999: Frank Darabont - The Green Mile



Edited By OscarGuy on 1262889019

[Mister Tee]

As Colbert would put it -- I CALLED IT!

The expected four, plus Daniels.

[OscarGuy]

The DGA, PGA and SAG winners will have no effect on nominations. The polls close on the same day as the SAG Awards which come before both PGA and DGA, so voters won't be able to use the winners as a guide.

[Hollywood Z]

I think he means taking so long to announce today.

Are the DGA announcing this morning or just at some point today?

If that's the case, I apologize for misreading.

Though I will point out, it's not even 9AM in LA. They have no obligation to pander to East Coast conditions.

Yeah, that's what I meant. I'm so used to the awards being announced around 5:30am (8:30am for us Eastern Coasters). Sucks being on the East Coast when your Achilles Heel is controlled on the West Coast. Guess I'll check back later around 1pm (my time).