November 2009 Predictions

[OscarGuy]

Oops. I didn't even think about that when I typed it. Thanks for the catch.

Oh, and Flipp, which of those I listed were being considered supporting? I thought most of the ones I listed were leads?

[Sonic Youth]

And even a few maybes down the line:
Robin Wright <s>Penn</s>

I believe that's 'Robin Wright' from now on.

[OscarGuy]

To be honest, the only reason I haven't been including Mulligan is that I still can't figure out how to replace. Is Helen Mirren going to be bumped? What about Annette Bening. If she is, indeed moved to 2010, then she'd be the one I'd replace. I haven't finalized my release list, so I appreciate all of the suggestions.

But, considering the Actress slate is the only one I'm getting flack over, I feel rather positive about the rest of my list.

And, I was stating the reasons why I HADN'T considered her a serious contender was based on the trailer. I haven't discounted anyone's opinions of the film or her performance. I was just placing my initial estimation on what information I had at the time (which was months ago, btw).

And, I'll take your suggestions regarding Mulligan seriously, I'm not discounting them at all (like most of you do with my opinions on Streep). And I'm sorry if this is the first time I've read a serious discussion regarding Mulligan. I have been, admittedly, busy lately and it's hard for me to read through the long threads on the message board at times and the only reason I haven't been reading the UAADB thoughts on An Education is because most of them have been in the movie's review thread, which tends to lend itself towards spoilers, which I don't want to subject myself to.

I very much appreciate the thoughts on the matter. This isn't the first time I've posted my predictions soliciting opinions, so please don't act like this is my final list ever and that somehow I won't ever change my mind. I go through many revisions and I DO listen to a lot of what people say around here, not always when I should, but I do. I will probably include Mulligan in my final published list over Mirren at this point.

Her film really is an unknown player in the race this year. That the director of the film is Michael Hoffman who directed Soapdish, One Fine Day and The Emperor's Club should really give us pause when considering The Last Station. Matter of fact, it makes me think Plummer may remain nomination-less in the end. Even Restoration, which earned some Oscars wasn't a high level contender.

[The Original BJ]

I don't see how anything I said could be considered bullying.

I am just a bit puzzled, like Mister Tee, that you have missed those "ravishing" raves.



Edited By The Original BJ on 1257197341

[Mister Tee]

It was just announced today that Sony Classics has picked up Mother and Child, but no release date, which suggests that, as with earlier-acquisition Get Low, they're holding it for next year. (I think Last Station is their horse for '09)

I'm occasionally amazed around here that people who follow the Oscars as a general matter can miss deafening buzz -- I'd apply this to both Oscar Guy on Carey Mulligan and Magilla on Christopher Waltz. I don't care what other big names come along; the most highly praised perfomances of the year, when they appear in popular movies, are locked in for nominations.

As for Streep, I'll say what I've said the past: Every year, the powers that be moan and groan the nominees are from movies no one's seen. In that context, when a highly praised performance comes along in a commercial hit, there's no way Academy members turn a blind eye.

[The Original BJ]

Mulligan (which I know very little about at this point, but the trailer doesn't make it look like a very challenging role).

Dude, you just gotta start trusting those of us who've seen the film. Or at least check out some of the star-is-born raves she's been getting in the press.

Sonic is right -- meteors will strike before Mulligan is left off the Oscar list. Just trust us on this one.

[flipp525]

Carey Mulligan is in. It's a glowing, ravishing "debut". It's her Audrey Hepburn moment. You should probably listen to people who've actually seen the film and can attest to the performance rather than what you took away from A TRAILER.

She is a lock. So is Mo'Nique. So is, I'd say, Meryl Streep (for reasons I've gone into extensively in another thread), but to a lesser extent because of several unknown quantities (Mirren, Bening, Blethyn, etc.) Any predictions that don't have Mulligan and Mo'Nique listed are simply not worth taking seriously.

Also, several actresses you have listed below will be considered for supporting nominations, not lead.



Edited By flipp525 on 1257195351

[OscarGuy]

I guess I don't see this as such an non-crowded year for lead actresses.

Right now, in my list, I rank the actresses as follows (as far as my thoughts on their nominations):

Gabby Sidibe
Annette Bening
Saoirse Ronan
Hilary Swank
Helen Mirren

Now, I can see The Last Station bombing, which would bump out Mirren in place of Mulligan (which I know very little about at this point, but the trailer doesn't make it look like a very challenging role). And I can also see Annette Bening not making it simply because her film still doesn't have a distributor. And I wonder if it's that some studios can't see themselves spending what would need to be spent to get Bening a trophy even though, if she's nominated, I feel fairly confident this could be a win for her.

I'm not willing to call Swank dead as yet.

But, here's the shortest list of names outside of the five above I can come up with:

Carey Mulligan
Meryl Streep
Penelope Cruz
Sandra Bullock (you guys claim it's a weak year, so she should at least be considered)
Emily Blunt
Vera Farmiga
Shohreh Aghdashloo
Julianne Moore

And even a few maybes down the line:
Robin Wright Penn
Melanie Laurent
Samantha Morton
Jennifer Connelly
Abbie Cornish.

I know not all of these would strike you as contenders, but most of them have baity roles and are in baity films and make for a much stronger competition than people are suggesting.

[rolotomasi99]

Also, I hate to dwell on this since it's been discussed before, but I continue to be surprised that people don't view Meryl Streep as a really strong nomination candidate. Certainly she's in a better position than the not-dead-but-pretty-weak-tea Swank, not to mention some of the unseen candidates whose films really haven't been tested yet.

Believe me, I have done everything in my power to understand why people are betting against Streep at this point, but it is completely beyond me. Not every Streep performance is nomination worthy, but this one seems good and it is not a particularly crowded year.

Oh, well. I guess that is the curse of being so wonderful. People start to take you for granted. At this point I doubt Streep even cares about Oscar nominations.

[Sonic Youth]

At this point in time, I don't necessarily think Swank's nomination ain't gonna happen. She's hanging off a slippery ledge by her fingertips, but performances from lousy movies during weak years have happened before. I Am Sam, anyone?

But I'm more likely in the next 15 seconds to be struck by a meteor - twice - than Carrie Mulligan is to be passed over for a nomination. I'm more willing to allow the slight possibility of a suprise by a Streep omission, depending on what happens in the next few months. Call it a one-meteor certainty, but I won't fully dismiss the possibility. But Mulligan may as well have an ingraved invitation to this year's ceremony in triplicate.

I find no James Cameron nod for Best Director very intriguing. I suspect "A Sing[le Man" will be passed over for any major nod, and I'm wondering if 10 slots is too few to allow "A Serious Man" to get in. It hurts to see no "Coraline" for Best Animated Film, even though that may well happen. And the commercials I've seen for "Invictus" don't look promising, but we'll have to wait and see. And I guess that's all I have to say for now.

I'm getting a premonition that this is Clooney's year. That he's won an Oscar recently is of no matter since it was a supporting Oscar for a film no one considers (if they remember it at all) to be a career-defining moment. "Up In the Air" has been very well received, and the reviews claim this is very much a tailor-made George Clooney role, meaning it's the sort of role you can't see anyone else do, and I'm sure it'll pull better box office numbers than "Michael Clayton". I don't necessarily think he'll sweep the critics awards, but I can envision a Globes, SAG, BFCA gut-punch.



Edited By Sonic Youth on 1257187505

[The Original BJ]

Are we certain that Swank is DOA? I mean, she's got two Oscars under her belt already and while the film didn't get great notices, I thought she had bucked the trend. Is it really all that far-fetched?

As far as Mulligan, because of the list I had, I just couldn't justify getting her in there. Right now, I think Helen Mirren is probably the second weakest on my list. A lot depends on the reception for The Last Station.

Swank is not totally DOA, but she's completely underwhelming in Amelia, the film bombed critically and commercially, and it's curious to me that one could think her a stronger contender than Carey Mulligan, who has received the most glowing reviews of any actress so far this year in a film that is a very likely Best Picture contender. I'm curious to know why you can't justify her getting in? At this point -- at least until Precious opens next week -- she seems the MOST likely acting nominee in ANY category we've seen thus far. (Maybe you haven't seen An Education -- to me she's an absolute slam-dunk nominee, no questions asked.)

Also, I hate to dwell on this since it's been discussed before, but I continue to be surprised that people don't view Meryl Streep as a really strong nomination candidate. Certainly she's in a better position than the not-dead-but-pretty-weak-tea Swank, not to mention some of the unseen candidates whose films really haven't been tested yet.

[FilmFan720]

I'm beginning to think Nine will repeat Slumdog Millionaire and win eight Oscars withaout picking up a single acting trophy.

Well, that can be a problem when you fill every role of your film with Oscar winners. The roles that usually garner award notice are Day-Lewis, Kidman, Cotillard, Cruz and Dench, and they are all recent winners who no one is clammoring to give another award too (excpet maybe Dench)...Loren has a nostalgia factor, but no one really thinks she deserves two Oscars either, do they?

[Greg]

I'm beginning to think Nine will repeat Slumdog Millionaire and win eight Oscars withaout picking up a single acting trophy.

[OscarGuy]

Are we certain that Swank is DOA? I mean, she's got two Oscars under her belt already and while the film didn't get great notices, I thought she had bucked the trend. Is it really all that far-fetched?

As far as Mulligan, because of the list I had, I just couldn't justify getting her in there. Right now, I think Helen Mirren is probably the second weakest on my list. A lot depends on the reception for The Last Station.

[The Original BJ]

Actress:
Annette Bening
Hilary Swank
Helen Mirren
Saoirse Ronan
Gabby Sidibe

Have you seen Amelia? There is absolutely no way on God's green earth that Hilary Swank will be nominated INSTEAD of Carey Mulligan and Meryl Streep.

It just AIN'T. GONNA. HAPPEN.