November 2009 Predictions

[Sabin]

In the Bedroom and Gosford Park are very good. I don't like Amelie. It has some beautiful imagery and a gorgeous score, but it's pretty pithy stuff and at times incredibly annoying.

[criddic3]

It was in a foreign language. Simple as that. For all their high-minded talk about honoring "art," very few foreign language films get picture and acting awards at the Oscars, as you know. Though I will say that In the Bedroom and Gosford Park were both very well done.

[Sabin]

Probably slim to none. Audrey Tautou is going to have to do something she hasn't done before. I think Amelie was her shot and it didn't happen. In retrospect, I'm a little surprised that she and her movie didn't fare much, much better. I find it pretty hard to believe that voters enjoyed In the Bedroom and Gosford Park more than Amelie. Then again, I find it hard to believe they liked those two films more than Black Hawk Down or Memento.

I'd be astonished if Tautou is mentioned again outside this discussion.

[criddic3]

What are Audrey Tatou's chances for Coco Before Chanel?

[Sabin]

Jeff Bridges is allegedly in the Oscar hunt for Crazy Heart.

[FilmFan720]

In regards to Sandra Bullock, when I first saw her name on OG's list the only film I could think of was "The Proposal," and thought OscarGuy had finally flipped his lid. Glad to hear there is something even slightly more apropos for her to be in consideration for

[rolotomasi99]

I guess I don't see this as such an non-crowded year for lead actresses.

But, here's the shortest list of names outside of the five above I can come up with:

Sandra Bullock (you guys claim it's a weak year, so she should at least be considered)

I am assuming you mean a nomination for her performance in ALL ABOUT STEVE. I did not see it, but I hear she plays a deranged stalker who hunts down this man she has become obsessed with to force him to fall in love with her. Supposedly, there has not been as terrifying a performance as her's since Anthony Hopkins in THE SILENCE OF THE LAMBS.

All About Steve is a comedy featuring Thomas Haden Church and Bradley Cooper in the titular role that was almost universally panned upon its early September release.

I think he's referring to Bullock's role in the upcoming The Blind Side.

Oh. Well, that is just crazy-talk.

Her performance in that film looks absolutely dreadful and boring.

Her performance in ALL ABOUT STEVE, on the other hand, looks like it took real courage to pull off.

[Big Magilla]

At least we cleared up that I didn't misread your post, Magilla. And in response, I'll refer you to my reply down below, which is as valid now as it was 2.5 hours ago when I posted it.

Misread, no, misunderstood, yes.

[Big Magilla]

Is there a trailer out for The Last Station?

I saw one some place.

[Sonic Youth]

At least we cleared up that I didn't misread your post, Magilla. And in response, I'll refer you to my reply down below, which is as valid now as it was 2.5 hours ago when I posted it.

[flipp525]

That you can so easily slip into the psyche of Martha Hyer is, at once, delightfully fey and somewhat bizarre.

Is there a trailer out for The Last Station? I want to say I saw this as a play on stage in college (...?). A Christopher Plummer nomination still seems like such a pipedream to me for some reason.



Edited By flipp525 on 1257364733

[Big Magilla]

I'm not conscious of talking about "winning" nominations - I'd have to see what I said in context to know what that's about.

As far as the Oscar nomination process goes, actors list five performances on their ballots by preference in the four acting categories. They list the nominees in the order in which they would like to see them eventually win. So if I'm, say, someone who, like Martha Hyer, worked with the realAudrey Hepburn in Sabrina, I may think this girl Carey Mulligan is a talented young actress but she's no Audrey - let's not get ahead of ourselves and award her a premature Oscar, let's wait until she's proven herslf in something else. After all, Audrey, by the time she won her Oscar was already starring on Broadway in Ondine for which she would soon win the Tony over Deborah Kerr in Tea and Sympathy. She also had our film, Sabrina, on tap. What is this Carey person doing besides dating that Transformers kid?

On the other hand, I, Martha, know that Helen Mirren was brilliant in The Last Station because buoyed by her win at the Rome Film Fest I made it a point to pick that film out of all the screener DVDs that came to my house. So, damn it, Carey Mulligan may deserve a nomination, she may even win, but I'm voting for Helen.

By the way this is a purely hypothetical scenario. For all I know, Martha Hyer will place Mulligan or Sidibe first on her ballot and not even consider Mirren.



Edited By Big Magilla on 1257362165

[OscarGuy]

Well, as a frame of reference, I edit Magilla's articles for my website and he often talks about individuals "winning" a nomination. It may just be a choice of words that gives the incorrect impression, but from the conversation that was going on and his statements, I took it to mean in relation to the nominations only, not the awards. Magilla, along with everyone else on this board, knows that making winner predictions this early can be a fruitless proposition.

[Sonic Youth]

Oh no no no, I have no argument with that point.

But I was responding to "It may be enough for the old-timers who are reluctant to give an award to a newcomer they know very little about." So, it wasn't about nominating in that sentence. It was about winning: "giving an award" to someone.

If I'm misreading that, then I'm at a loss as to how but I guess I'm open to explanations.

[OscarGuy]

Sonic, there's a difference between suggesting someone will get a nomination and that they will win.

His entire point was that Mirren was a more likely person to get a nomination than some of the others in the category because she's already been awarded. He's not saying that Mirren will win because of some award back in October. He's just talking about the nominations and who he would recommend I remove from my list IN FAVOR OF Carey Mulligan, not in place of her.