November 2009 Predictions

[ITALIANO]

And after the NBR's snub (and The Last Station is, on paper, the perfect movie for them) I think even its Oscar chances are slim, though Helen Mirren could always find a place.

[Damien]

I love this opening paragraph of A.O. Scott's review of The Last Station in the NY Times:

Leo Tolstoy wrote enormous novels that reached the very pinnacle of literary art. He was a master of both quality and quantity, which may be why “The Last Station,” a new movie about the end of Tolstoy’s life, confuses the two. You will certainly see better acting in a great many motion pictures (including from the cast of this one), but it is unlikely you will see more. To say that the actors — Helen Mirren, James McAvoy, Christopher Plummer and Paul Giamatti, among others — overdo it would be an understatement. I can’t handicap their Oscar chances, but isn’t there a scenery-eating contest every summer out on Coney Island?

[OscarGuy]

Well, the historical pattern of the Satellites has been to veer towards Indies. When they first started out, they wanted to thumb their nose at their progenitor, the Golden Globes. Their choices not only tended to be extremely similar, they also tended to skew more populist. However, as time has worn on, they've slid farther and farther away from the populist mantle of the Golden Globes.

Matter of fact, as much as we want to make fun of them (and they do make a lot of bonehead choices), they do seem to be embracing indie films far more readily than the Globes. I honestly think the Indie-style of this year's nominees is an aberration that won't be seen in the Globe nominations coming on December 15. However, if it is, then perhaps the Satellites will earn a little more respect...though, I guess being like the Globes again wouldn't be too terribly respectable, but at least they could claim some measure of satisfaction for being early prognosticators.

[ITALIANO]

Here's a link to last year's Satellite nominations (and those from the year before).

2008: http://www.oscarguy.com/Oscars/Annual/81st/Precursors.html#SATN
2007: http://www.oscarguy.com/Oscars/Annual/80th/Precursors.html#SATN

And, I don't think that it's a matter of them liking to nominate foreign actresses, but more that they want to nominate indie actresses. Last year, they had more than their fair share of such nominees.

Thank you for the links.

Yes, it seems that they have a slight tendency to nominate, if not foreign actors, at least actors (and especially actresses) from independent movies. Not as many as in this year though, and even on this board the only two actresses from major American movies who are considered possible nominees are Meryl Streep (and not Meryl Streep at her best) and, of all people, Sandra Bullock! I'm not saying that this is a new 1975 though, and honestly there have been years, like 1996, when this problem led to a brilliant Best Actress category (in 1996 however there WERE important American actresses who could have been nominated and were left out).



Edited By ITALIANO on 1259618467

[OscarGuy]

Here's a link to last year's Satellite nominations (and those from the year before).

2008: http://www.oscarguy.com/Oscars/Annual/81st/Precursors.html#SATN
2007: http://www.oscarguy.com/Oscars/Annual/80th/Precursors.html#SATN

And, I don't think that it's a matter of them liking to nominate foreign actresses, but more that they want to nominate indie actresses. Last year, they had more than their fair share of such nominees.

[ITALIANO]

(Though it may be that some critics, forced to compare it to 8 1/2 in its own medium, might turn harsh )

I thought so, too, and it will certainly be like this here in Italy, but then on second thoughts I doubt that all young American film critics have even seen 8 1/2, or realize its importance in film history. And anyway, as others has said, with the ten slots format, unless it's REALLY a big flop, it will get a Best Picture nomination.

I don't know anything about the Satellites, and I dont know if they do this every year (in which case it wouldnt mean much), but otherwise the fact that they nominated so many foreign actresses (and not only English speaking ones) is, I think, interesting; it doesnt mean that the Academy will do the same of course, but it could mean that at least Best Actress could surprise, if not on the big night, at least on nominations morning.

And yes, at least now it seems to be the typical situation when turning to a respected, beloved veteran would be the safe choice, but after having seen Julie & Julia (not Meryl Streep's best movie ever, and not her most impressive performance), well, I dont know, let's just say that they'll have to be REALLY desperate, if you know what I mean.

[Okri]

Does anyone think that the relative strength of Animated Film actually hurts Up's best picture chances? The thing with WALL.E is that it stood out, not simply amongst animated films that year, but going a few years back. Up, while definitely acclaimed (though I'm beginning to think critics hear Pixar and cheer before seeing the film), feels like one amongst many. Ponyo, Coraline and The Fantastic Mr. Fox all have pockets of love among critics and even Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs was warmly received. So it feels less special, and less like "the one" to finally breakthrough.

[Greg]

Another scenario would be Fantastic Mr. Fox wins Best Animated Feature and Up wins Best Picture. That would really be one for the history books.

Also, Up could win for Original Screenplay and Fantastic Mr. Fox could win for Adapted Screenplay; so, the fiirst time an animated film wins a screenplay Oscar, both awards will go to animated films.

[Cinemanolis]

Cotillard, I doubt, but maybe it's because of my long-standing apathy toward her Piaf imitation which is not shared by the Academy.

And she was so awful in Public Enemies that the Academy should have taken back her statuette.

Actually i thought Cotillard was the best thing in the mediocre "Public Enemies" and that her best Actress win was the best moment in a dull Oscar night.

[Damien]

Cotillard, I doubt, but maybe it's because of my long-standing apathy toward her Piaf imitation which is not shared by the Academy.

And she was so awful in Public Enemies that the Academy should have taken back her statuette.

[Big Magilla]

I'm thinking Nine will win a slew of nominations, and unlike Dreamgirls, will get a Best Picture nod solely due to the fact that there are ten slots, but Marshall is pretty much out of it. Whereas Chicago benefited from a strong script (by Bill Condon) Nine is said to be adrift between songs. Cruz and Dench, yes, Day-Lewis, no. Cotillard, I doubt, but maybe it's because of my long-standing apathy toward her Piaf imitation which is not shared by the Academy.

[Mister Tee]

Magilla, I think you might be over-crediting a small pocket of reaction to Nine. The vibe I've got from the "technically not breaking embargo but chatting freely" crowd is that it's successful enough to yield many nominations, best picture certainly included in the year of ten. (Though it may be that some critics, forced to compare it to 8 1/2 in its own medium, might turn harsh -- the way some who raved about The Producers onstage flipped when seeing it in a visually similar style on film) I've actually been hearing more Cruz than Dench (more Cotillard than either, actually, but she's being promoted quixotically for lead actress). Both of course have roles that won Tonys in one of the Broadway incarnations.

I agree with your main point, that none of the withheld four appear to be "the Big One" the way Schindler's List or Titanic were in their years. (Though I think it's unfair to put that burden of December Savior year after year on mere movies) The Lovely Bones actually sounds like something I'd enjoy seeing, completely successful or not, for the gutsy effort. Invictus seems like a bore, and I can't help feeling there are critics just too afraid to say that out loud. And I'm as dubious about Avatar as you.

I HOPE Damon doesn't turn up in supporting, both because of my long-standing disdain for lead actors slumming in the lesser category, and because too many seem to be using that possibility as an excuse to dismiss his chances for stellar work in The Informant! I think that lead performance has some aspects of BJ's bird-in-hand theory -- it arrived relatively early in the season, and the movie made enough money (over $30 million, more than An Education, A Serious Man and The Hurt Locker combined) for consideration, but people have been so anxious to lock in unseen quantities like Day-Lewis and Freeman that they've cavalierly dropped him from consideration.

The outsized success of Blind Side does seem to be pushing Bullock into a Pursuit of Happyness style nod. (Where's Van Helsing? He must be beside himself with joy at the prospect) For her to win would be the ultimate fluke -- even if it's a year with no consensus and they opt for "popular/long overdue even if not great", Streep would be the choice before Bullock. I see this, as suggested elsewhere, as a Mr. Holland's Opus sort of nomination: career tribute for a big star, but no real hope of winning.



Edited By Mister Tee on 1259527404

[Big Magilla]

NONE of the closely guarded year-end behemoths are looking like winners any more with the possible exception of the still largely unseen Avatar, and that one I'll believe when I see it.

If that turns out to be the case, could it be possible that Up will not only win Best Animated Feature; but, will also become the first animated film to win Best Picture?

I doubt it, but anything is possible.

Another scenario would be Fantastic Mr. Fox wins Best Animated Feature and Up wins Best Picture. That would really be one for the history books.

[Greg]

NONE of the closely guarded year-end behemoths are looking like winners any more with the possible exception of the still largely unseen Avatar, and that one I'll believe when I see it.

If that turns out to be the case, could it be possible that Up will not only win Best Animated Feature; but, will also become the first animated film to win Best Picture?

[Big Magilla]

I'm not sure how valid Kris Tapley and Anne Thompson's opinions are in the overall scheme of things but they generally manage to get more things right than Tom O'Neill. If you've got thirty minutes or so to spare you might want to listen to their latest podcast regarding The Lovely Bones (both negative), Nine (mixed, but leaning toward negative) and Invictus (she liked it, he didn't but admits he's in the minority).


http://incontention.com/