November 2009 Predictions

[Mister Tee]

Also strange to consider that Page was actually just a year older than Bridges is now when she won. I've seen the video...she seemed like an old lady, and she does in Trip to Bountiful too. Not many people would think of Jeff Bridges as an old man now, or Meryl Streep as an old lady. Have general society perceptions about age changed, or have I just changed?

I was actually wondering if it was simply because Bridges is in my age range, but you're far younger and apparently respond the same as I do.

It may be that people of Page's/my parents' generation accepted -- or, better, dove into -- aging in a way that subsequent generations didn't. Baby boomers like myself are the ones who still wear jeans, where our parents dropped them after their teen years, and there are various other aspects of grooming (and exercise) that distinguish today's middle-aged-and-past folk from their forebears. When I was growing up, with few exceptions, everyone's parents looked post-menopausal. Today people choose (or at least try) to remain vital (and sexually attractive) far longer.

[dws1982]

Magilla's early call on Brenda Blethyn is also being repeated elsewhere.

The problem with Blethyn is that her movie doesn't have a distributor. (Or didn't as of a few days ago.) The producers are financing a one-week qualifying run, but it still doesn't actually have a distribution deal.

Funny-- when this first crossed my mind, I thought, except Geraldine Page was really OLD when she won. And, indeed, she only lived less than two years past Trip to Bountiful's arrival. But, in Oscar terms, Jeff Bridges has actually been on the radar a few years longer than Page had at the time of her win.

Also strange to consider that Page was actually just a year older than Bridges is now when she won. I've seen the video...she seemed like an old lady, and she does in Trip to Bountiful too. Not many people would think of Jeff Bridges as an old man now, or Meryl Streep as an old lady. Have general society perceptions about age changed, or have I just changed?

[Big Magilla]

I'm wondering if The Last Station might court nominations for Christopher Plummer in lead, Helen Mirren in lead, and James McAvoy in support.

No, it's "courting" nominations for McAvoy and Mirren in lead and Plummer in support.

[Sabin]

I'm wondering if The Last Station might court nominations for Christopher Plummer in lead, Helen Mirren in lead, and James McAvoy in support.

[Big Magilla]

Jeffrey Wells' rave review of Mirren's performance and the British trailer for The Last Station here:


http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/

[Sabin]

It was already getting made. If only I could. Then again: I would pass on most scripts that come my way. That being said, Sandra Bullock is having an amazing year. Three motion pictures, all of them relatively commercial and profitable, none of them remotely appealing to me. She's back, there's no doubt about that. She's the biggest actress in Hollywood. I think she has a better shot at a Razzie for All About Steve than anything else.

[Greg]

There is indeed talk about Bullock in that schmaltzy-looking salvation-through-football movie (which is based on a highly-regarded non-fiction book) -- though not yet from reputable sources.

That will not happen. That movie looks terrible. I read it when I was a reader and wow, is it schmaltzy! I will be astonished if anybody speak of it in a month.

I take it you pased on the script.

[Greg]

Funny-- when this first crossed my mind, I thought, except Geraldine Page was really OLD when she won. And, indeed, she only lived less than two years past Trip to Bountiful's arrival. But, in Oscar terms, Jeff Bridges has actually been on the radar a few years longer than Page had at the time of her win.

Actually, Bridges is the same age that Page was. She was only 62 when she died; but, her character in The Trip To Bountiful was somewhat older than her.



Edited By Greg on 1257456541

[Sabin]

There is indeed talk about Bullock in that schmaltzy-looking salvation-through-football movie (which is based on a highly-regarded non-fiction book) -- though not yet from reputable sources.

That will not happen. That movie looks terrible. I read it when I was a reader and wow, is it schmaltzy! I will be astonished if anybody speak of it in a month.

[Mister Tee]

There is indeed talk about Bullock in that schmaltzy-looking salvation-through-football movie (which is based on a highly-regarded non-fiction book) -- though not yet from reputable sources. Magilla's early call on Brenda Blethyn is also being repeated elsewhere. And, perhaps most plausibly, there are now murmurs that Searchlight has decided Amelia est mort and they might instead promote Crazy Hearts, with Jeff Bridges approximating Duvall in Tender Mercies.

All of which suggests we might see something I recently lamented was gone for good: the late-emerging Oscar surprise (by late I don't mean "at Toronto" -- I mean post-October). The combination of a less-than-bursting slate and a thin November/December release schedule (owing to the demise of so many specialty units) might actually bring back some spontaneity to this becoming-all-too-ossified process.

Kris Tapley is arguing Jeff Bridges could threaten for the win, and, obviously not having seen the film, I'd agree on the basis of profile. The chief contenders for best actor appear to be a sort-of-known-but-hardly-beloved actor in a "challenging" role (Firth), a hugely popular but not especially deep actor who just won recently (Clooney), a well-regarded star in a movie that split opinion (Damon), and a couple of other recent winners unseen (Freeman, Day-Lewis). In that context, Bridges could be Geraldine Page, coming along to resolve a muddled contest, winning on achievement mixed with career sentiment.

Funny-- when this first crossed my mind, I thought, except Geraldine Page was really OLD when she won. And, indeed, she only lived less than two years past Trip to Bountiful's arrival. But, in Oscar terms, Jeff Bridges has actually been on the radar a few years longer than Page had at the time of her win.

[Sabin]

I've noticed this several times before from you but still cannot be certain to question it...due to the inability to feel sarcasm through type with 100% accuracy (and I am not trying to nitpick at all)...but the word "pithy" is almost purely positive and I believe actually means meaningful, forceful, thoughtful as in expression.

Well, now I feel like an idiot. I thought it meant something totally different...sigh...I used to be a spelling bee champ. At least I spelled it correctly.

Amelie is pure shit and Tatou's performance in it is vomit-inducing preciousness. How could voters have preferred In the Bedroom and Gosford Park over it? They had taste.

That's what I'm trying to say. No, they don't. The minute I saw Amelie, I predicted it would be nominated for nine Academy Awards (Picture, Director, Foreign-Film, Actress, Original Screenplay, Original Score, Cinematography, Film Editing, Art Direction) if not more.

[Bog]

but it's pretty pithy stuff and at times incredibly annoying.

I've noticed this several times before from you but still cannot be certain to question it...due to the inability to feel sarcasm through type with 100% accuracy (and I am not trying to nitpick at all)...but the word "pithy" is almost purely positive and I believe actually means meaningful, forceful, thoughtful as in expression.

[flipp525]

I find it pretty hard to believe that voters enjoyed In the Bedroom and Gosford Park more than Amelie.

Amelie is pure shit and Tatou's performance in it is vomit-inducing preciousness. How could voters have preferred In the Bedroom and Gosford Park over it? They had taste.

[Big Magilla]

I just came across this article from Dave Karger at EW, dated 11/3. Had I seen this earlier I would have posted it instead of coming up with my own explanation of why I think Mirren is in:

I know that when it comes to scoring an Oscar nomination, it helps to be fresh in voters’ minds, but this is a little ridiculous. In the past few weeks, Oscar-qualifying runs were announced for The Last Station, with Helen Mirren, and The Loss of a Teardrop Diamond, starring Bryce Dallas Howard. And now comes word of a one-week release for the festival drama London River, featuring Brenda Blethyn (who gave what I still believe is one of the best performances ever in Secrets & Lies). Clearly these last-minute moves speak to how sparse the Best Actress race is this year—Julie & Julia’s Meryl Streep, An Education’s Carey Mulligan, and Precious‘ Gabourey Sidibe are likely in, leaving two slots for the taking. But can any of these 11th-hour entries actually make it into the final five? Off the three, I’d give Mirren the edge; her performance as Leo Tolstoy’s wife, Sophia, is fiery and intense, and she’s got Sony Pictures Classics releasing the film. But with other promising contenders yet to be seen (Nine’s Marion Cotillard, The Lovely Bones‘ Saoirse Ronan), scoring a nomination as a last-minute contender is definitely going to be an uphill battle.

[FilmFan720]

The entire movie is incredibly annoying...that could be why.