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Big Magilla
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Post by Big Magilla »

flipp525 wrote:I said "lack of a high-calibre career preceding this film", which is not the way you seem to have read my post.
I must not have been fully awake when I read that! :cool:
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Post by flipp525 »

Thanks for the response and explanation. As I suspected, you haven't actually seen the performance.

Also, I said "lack of a high-calibre career preceding this film", which is not the way you seem to have read my post. In no way was I implying that Mo'Nique's film oeuvre was of a superior quality.

Nor was I positing that Mo'Nique was a "sure-thing" or a "lock". I was only trying to get at what your criteria was for such immediate disposal/dismissal of her chances. I'm still sort of wondering, to a certain extent, but we can move on...
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Post by Big Magilla »

Excuse me for living but I never heard of this person before so I have no idea what you're talking about when you refer to a high-calibre career preceding this film which I still haven't seen though I may do so in the next few days after which I may have an epiphany, join the chorus, sing hallelujahs and light candles in her support.

As for Shelley Winters in A Patch of Blue, I thought she was good but I was more impressed with the performances of Elizabeth Hartman and Wallace Ford whose scenes together seemed more natural. I never got over Winters' reported comments that she knew she would win because the competition was lousy. The competition which was not lousy included Ruth Gordon (Inside Daisy Clover) who wrote the part that launched Winters' career in A Double Life.

As to why I don't think the film or its star won't win much of anything, though I could be dead wrong, is that early front-runners have a way of being left by the wayside when the actual awards start coming in. Several of these groups have breakthrough awards for which Ms. Sidibe is a likely winner so she'll get the consolation prize for that and that may be enough. This film seems to have as many detractors as it has supporters. It's also nothing new. TV shows like Law & Order: Special Victims Unit have told similar stories for years.

I don't know which side I will be on after I've seen it, but I know the story, I know the ending and I don't care how hard Oprah pushes it, it's still going to be a hard sell for Oscar voters just as I knew it would be a hard sell for the National Board of Review.

Supporting Actress is not open and shut. Mo'Nique may be the front-runner and may win it in the end, but there are no guarantees. Just ask Lauren Bacall.
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Post by Reza »

flipp525 wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:The year began with Mo'Nique the only "sure thing" about Precious. I think it will end with neither the film nor its star winning much of anything and with Anna Kendrick winning the NBR award for Supporting Actress it may be the first indication that Mo'Nique isn't such a "sure thing" either.
I'm still trying to figure out what it is about Mo'Nique's performance that is so throwing your Oscar universe off-kilter, Big Magilla. Is it the lack of a solid high-calibre career that had preceded her Precious work? Her comedic background? Her, for lack of a better word, crassness, her unique Mo'Nique-ness (all of which is what makes her such a great comedian, of course). Were you this much against Shelley Winters' nomination (and eventual win) back in '65 for her own despicable mother performance in A Patch of Blue?

When Eric first offered up the possibility back in, I think, late March, you turned your nose up at the very idea of it almost immediately. "Who is this Mo'Nique person?" you all but said. When the accolades started trickling in, you seemed to perk up to the sheer inevitability of it, although it still seemed like a burden your predictions just had to bear. And now, with only one of the big groups having chimed in for someone else, you claim her all but finished, as if all you needed was a bone thrown to a more traditional, and yes, safe performance in order to justify your initial misgivings.

I mean, what is it? Am I taking it for granted the fact that you've even seen her performance?
Maybe Magilla is just bugging you Flipp....and, judging by your tedious tirade, you fell for it.?
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Post by flipp525 »

Big Magilla wrote:The year began with Mo'Nique the only "sure thing" about Precious. I think it will end with neither the film nor its star winning much of anything and with Anna Kendrick winning the NBR award for Supporting Actress it may be the first indication that Mo'Nique isn't such a "sure thing" either.

I'm still trying to figure out what it is about Mo'Nique's performance that is so throwing your Oscar universe off-kilter, Big Magilla. Is it the lack of a solid high-calibre career that had preceded her Precious work? Her comedic background? Her, for lack of a better word, crassness, her unique Mo'Nique-ness (all of which is what makes her such a great comedian, of course). Were you this much against Shelley Winters' nomination (and eventual win) back in '65 for her own despicable mother performance in A Patch of Blue?

When Eric first offered up the possibility back in, I think, late March, you turned your nose up at the very idea of it almost immediately. "Who is this Mo'Nique person?" you all but said. When the accolades started trickling in, you seemed to perk up to the sheer inevitability of it, although it still seemed like a burden your predictions just had to bear. And now, with only one of the big groups having chimed in for someone else, you claim her all but finished, as if all you needed was a bone thrown to a more traditional, and yes, safe performance in order to justify your initial misgivings.

I mean, what is it? Am I taking it for granted the fact that you've even seen her performance?




Edited By flipp525 on 1259949259
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Post by anonymous1980 »

jack wrote:A bit of a aside, but someone mentioned below about the Coen's being a sole Director contender. With the ten Best Picture line-up, will the sole Director nominees be a thing of the past now? If so, could we take the five Best Director nominess and their films to be the only realistic contenders?
Actually, during the early days of the Oscars where there were 10 Best Picture nominees, the "lone director" nominee happened TWICE. So it's not completely out of the question to have a lone director nominee.
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Post by jack »

A bit of a aside, but someone mentioned below about the Coen's being a sole Director contender. With the ten Best Picture line-up, will the sole Director nominees be a thing of the past now? If so, could we take the five Best Director nominess and their films to be the only realistic contenders?
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Post by Eric »

After watching UitA this evening, I say (subjectively) that I can't see it losing to Precious, if indeed those are the only two major contenders for the win as we see it at this point. It's not necessarily better, but it's more bloodlessly professional, more falsely uplifting and definitely more calculatedly of-the-moment. And it goes down so much easier.

Magilla would be right to imagine (with what I detect to be a tiny bit of satisfaction) Mo'Nique starting to sweat a little for her pole position, but I'm not sure which between the two UitA contenders could usurp her. Kendrick gets the self-evident big scene (in Detroit), but Farmiga is the one who has that overall Virginia Madsen vibe in the third act.




Edited By Eric on 1259902258
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Post by FilmFan720 »

The Original BJ wrote:I'm still very curious to see how far some of these films can go, particularly movies like Inglourious Basterds and District 9, which seem destined to be remembered as special movies from this year, but which seem pretty much off-Oscar.
I think that is what is making this year seem so exciting, at least compared to recent years. Nothing is standing out, and with 10 films up for Best Picture, it seems like we have to redefine our definition of off-Oscar. Could a District 9 or Up or Inglorious Basterds or even a Star Trek, a film that would never be talked about seriously at this point in the year, become a contender. And like you said, films like A Serious Man don't have to dominate awards in order to make a strong showing with a Best Picture nomination like it would have had to last year or the year before. Or, are we blowing steam out our asses and will the lackluster December pictures rule the day. I think that if this experiment becomes a permanent one, we are going to be seeing a few years of adjusting all of our rules for predicting.
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Post by The Original BJ »

Some thoughts:

I was pretty surprised to see Precious miss the list completely. I don't doubt this will be a minor bump in its road, but it's nice to know at least it won't be dominating awards season. Agreed that this is a big boost for Up in the Air.

Both George Clooney and Clint Eastwood have received quite a bit of recent love from this organization. In addition to their prizes this year, both men won recent Best Actor awards (for Michael Clayton and Gran Torino) AND Special Achievement awards (for Confessions of a Dangerous Mind and Million Dollar Baby).

The Hurt Locker is going to win at least one of the big critics awards. It was far too unanimously well-reviewed to not make a strong showing somewhere. I think An Education has a strong shot at one of them too. (Although I realize as I type this that I might as well jinx all of my favorites this year.) But it sure doesn't seem like there are all that many films that could conceivably contend for these prizes.

I keep vacillating on Bullock's chances (though I haven't seen her film). On one hand, the box office success of her picture is a giant plus. On the other hand, her film looks pretty lame, even by Oscar standards, and Bullock doesn't have the pedigree that brought Meryl Streep and Sean Penn their default nominations for schmaltzy work. (Though, to be fair, I've read a lot of negative comments on other boards about how Bullock isn't an Oscar-caliber actress, and to me those are pretty unfair comments given some of the actresses who have been nominated and won over the past decade.) Maybe I just like to hope she'll be left out so I don't have to see that thing.

A Serious Man is looking to me like the type of film that could really benefit from the ten-wide list (not, as the press keeps pimping, popcorn fare like Star Trek). It's hard to see A Serious Man really contending for that many nominations; with the old format, it'd be screenplay only, I think. But it's been showing up on these early lists, and it's filling out the bottom rungs of quite a few pundits' predictions. I could see it getting only two nominations, but one of them being Best Picture.

Supporting actor really does seem to have some wide open possibilities. Even if you assume Plummer is in (and Tucci, for that matter, given how polarizing Lovely Bones appears to be), that's still one open spot with barely a contender who's been mentioned as anything more than a dark horse. I, too, would push for Mackie, but I'm not sure he's a very strong candidate; most of The Hurt Locker's buzz has extended only faintly to its actors.

I'm still very curious to see how far some of these films can go, particularly movies like Inglourious Basterds and District 9, which seem destined to be remembered as special movies from this year, but which seem pretty much off-Oscar.
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Post by Mister Tee »

In my hours away from the computer, I was running some thoughts through my head; lo and behold, I come back on and find Sonic and Magilla have more or less covered the first one or two.

I'm with Sonic: unless Up in the Air is way better than I'm thinking, this was probably it's only shot at a major win prior to the Broadcast/Globes confabs. So showing up here was big. Conversely, I doubt Precious is likely to win the top prize from any of the serious groups, either, based on their recent history. (The other groups -- San Diego, Las Vegas, etc. - who cares?) So, in the category of "movies that were decently reviewed and seem like they'll do respectable business", Up in the Air took a stride ahead of its chief competitor today. (And it is offically drama at HFPA)

With the tie here today, and given that I expect Colin Firth, Matt Damon and maybe Jeff Bridges to make stronger showings in NY and LA, it could be we'll have a fairly spirited contest for best actor. Which makes it even more irritating than usual that the Broadcasters will do everything in their power to "pick" the winner.

I've been thinking Sandra Bullock has a good shot at nailing a best actress nomination, simply because the field beyond Mulligan/Streep/Sidibe is so shapeless. But this would have been an opportune time for her or her film to show up, and both fell short. I'd say she needs to appear on the Broadcast or Globe list to really be a serious hopeful.

A few hours later, I'm wondering if Harrelson might have a shot at the Oscars after all. The only certainties for supporting actor appear to be Waltz, Molina and Tucci (for one movie or the other). People are saying Christopher Plummer, but it remains to be seen if Last Station will actually register. Films that open in December looking to qualify performers but not the film itself have a far greater history of falling short than of succeeding -- for every Iris, there are ten Grace is Gone's. (Crazy Heart is in that iffy category as well) After Plummer? Anthony Mackie would be deserving but he's hardly locked in. Harrelson could slip in simply from lack of strong alternatives.

My dark heart agrees with Sonic that Serious Man will be limited to screenplay, but the strong showing so far (here and at the Satellites) makes me probably-false-hope for more -- it's a lone director possibility, and, in the realm of ten, such films may even slip onto the best picture slate.
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Post by MovieWes »

WTF is District 9 doing on the indie list? When your movie costs $35 million, has Peter Jackson as your producer, and is made by a major studio, it's not an indie. Plus, it's more expensive than half the movies on the main list.



Edited By MovieWes on 1259891020
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Post by Big Magilla »

I think Up in the Air will win just about everything this year. Its reviews seem to indicate it's "old-fashioned" but in a good way and with its focus on lay-offs, what could be more topical? I think it's the surest bet serio-comedy (or dramedy if you will) since The Apartment.

The year began with Mo'Nique the only "sure thing" about Precious. I think it will end with neither the film nor its star winning much of anything and with Anna Kendrick winning the NBR award for Supporting Actress it may be the first indication that Mo'Nique isn't such a "sure thing" either.
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Post by Sonic Youth »

Hmm...

Until we get to the Broadcast Film Critics, it's possible this may very well be it for "Up in the Air" (the film, not the performances) with the major critics' awards. But it's conceivable it could do quite well with the Globe and SAG nominations. If it does, and if it can pick up several more acting awards from the critic's groups along the way, I see no reason why this can't be considered the front-runner for Best Picture, at least at this point.

Is "Up in the Air" campaigning for Comedy or Drama for the Globes?

I wonder if Mulligan and Sidibe's awards could just as easily been switched. My wholly invented scenario envisions a close vote between the two, with Mulligan barely ekeing out the win over Sedibe, while both of them overpowered the Establishment: Meryl and Sandra. Of course there's no way of knowing this. Streep or Bullock could very well have been the runner-up Actress. But thinking of the newcomers dominating the race is so much more refreshing.

Screenplay is probably the Coen's best - and only - hope for a nomination.

I think Magilla's on to something here. Objectively speaking, the mainstream fare was particularly interesting this year. Unfortunately, most of it doesn't fall under the category of "Oscar fodder" as we know it. So it probably won't mean much for this year's race. (I should say, though, I'm speaking as someone who didn't care for "Star Trek", "Up", "The Fantastic Mr. Fox", or "(500) Days of Summer".)
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Post by Greg »

The ads for Up In The Air and Invictus, the two biggest winners here, both leave me cold.
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