NBR Predictions

[Big Magilla]

I hate to brag but I'm a little astonished that I actually got 6 out of 10 including the Best Picture pick as well as one of tie winners for Best Actor, Best Actress, both Breakthrough Performers and the runners-up for Supporting Actress and both screenplay awards.

Believe it or not two of the three they didn't include, The Last Station and Precious were not on my initial hastily prepared list while three of the ones I omitted, 500 Days of Summer, Up and Where the Wild Things were films I considered listing. Star Trek is the only one that surprised me.



Edited By Big Magilla on 1259869495

[Big Magilla]

As we wait...

1. Up in the Air
2. The Hurt Locker
3. Nine
4. The Messenger
5. An Education
6. Precious
7. The Last Station
8. Invictus
9. A Serious Man
10. Inglourious Basterds

Best actor: George Clooney (ru: Jeff Bridges)
Best actress: Carey Mulligan (ru: Meryl Streep)
Best sup. actor: Stanley Tucci (ru: Christopher Waltz)
Best sup. actress: Samantha Morton (ru: Anna Kendrick)
Best director: Kathryn Bigelow (ru: Jason Reitman)
Adapted screenplay: An Education (Up in the Air)
Original screenplay: 500 Days of Summer (Inglourious Basterds)

Breakthrough Male: Jeremy Renner
Breakthrough Female: Gabourey Sidibe
Ensemble: Nine
Animation: Up
First Feature: A Single Man
Foreign Film: Broken Embraces

[Big Magilla]

I don't know. The fun kind of went out of predicting the NBR when they went back to apphabetical listings and making a separate list for independent features.

There's always the Peter Travers Top Ten List contest.

I've never found Travers fun, but maybe I'll take a stab at it.

[Sonic Youth]

I don't know. The fun kind of went out of predicting the NBR when they went back to apphabetical listings and making a separate list for independent features.

There's always the Peter Travers Top Ten List contest.

[Mister Tee]

I've been meaning to do this for days, but work and private chaos have intruded. You guys have mostly paved the way, but a few comments:

I wouldn't be sure, Magilla, about Lovely Bones being omitted. Yes, they ignored the trilogy, but that was more a matter of sticking to their guns after skipping the first one. They DID select one Jackson film, Heavenly Creatures, to which this bears a resemblance. I'm getting the impression -- from recent reviews -- that Todd McCarthy's slam will not be universally echoed. The film seems divisive, but it might have its champions. In fact, I think Jackson is a dark horse for best director here, as they seem to favor big names.

I'm probably taking a chance leaving off Invictus, since they've fawned over most Eastwood movies this decade, but I think this one's going to tank, and this could be the tell-tale sign.

It's hard finding a high profile enough contender that meets all NBR's specs -- politically progressive, period piece, esthetically soothing. But here's my list, in order, in case they opt to go that way again:

1. Precious
2. The Hurt Locker
3. Nine
4. A Single Man
5. Up in the Air
6. A Serious Man
7. The Lovely Bones
8. The Blind Side
9. Inglourious Basterds
10. An Education

other possibles: The Last Station, Bright Star

Best actor: Jeff Bridges (ru: Colin Firth)
Best actress: Carey Mulligan (ru: Meryl Streep)
Best sup. actor: Stanley Tucci (for both Julie & Bones) (ru: Christopher Waltz)
Best sup. actress: Mo 'Nique (ru: Anna Kendrick)
Best director: Kathryn Bigelow (ru: Peter Jackson)
Adapted screenplay: An Education (Up in the Air)
Original screenplay: A Serious Man (500 Days of Summer)

Breakthrough Male: Jeremy Renner
Breakthrough Female: Gabourey Sidibe
Ensemble: Nine
Animation: Up
First Feature: A Single Man
Foreign Film: Broken Embraces

Special Achievement: George Clooney, for Up in the Air, Men Who Stare at Goats and Fantastic Mr. Fox

[Sabin]

Best Film - Up in the Air (total crap-shoot. Could just as easily opt for An Education or The Last Station, both of which looks NBR-innocuous to me) (r.u. -- The Last Station)

...An Education
...The Hurt Locker
...Inglourious Basterds
...Invictus
...The Last Station
...Nine
...Precious
...A Serious Man
...Up

Best Independent Films
...(500) Days of Summer
...Afterschool
...Crazy Heart
...Humpday
...In the Loop
...Julia
...Me and Orson Welles
...Sin Nombre
...A Single Man
...Tetro

Best Foreign-Language Film - The White Ribbon
...35 Shots of Rum
...Broken Embraces
...Revanche
...Summer Hours
...Tokyo Sonata

Best Documentary - The Cove
...Anvil! The Story of Anvil
...Defamation
...Food, Inc.
...Capitalism: A Love Story

Best Animated Film - Up (r.u. -- Fantastic Mr. Fox)

Best Actor - Colin Firth, A Single Man (r.u. -- Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart)
Best Actress - Helen Mirren, The Last Station (r.u. -- Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia)
Best Supporting Actor - Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (r.u. -- Alfred Molina, An Education)
Best Supporting Actress - Mo'nique, Precious (r.u. -- Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air)
Best Director - Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (r.u. -- Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds)

Breakthrough Performance Male - Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds (r.u. -- Michael Stuhlburg, A Serious Man)
Breakthrough Performance Female - Carey Mulligan, An Education (r.u. -- Gabby Sidibe, Precious)
Best Ensemble Cast - A Serious Man (r.u. -- Inglourious Basterds)
Best Directorial Debut - Tom Ford, A Single Man (r.u. -- Marc Webb, (500) Days of Summer)
Best Original Screenplay - Scott Neuststadter & Michael H. Webb, (500) Days of Summer (r.u. -- Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker)
Best Adapted Screenplay - Jason Reitman, Up in the Air (r.u. -- (really bailing on a hunch here!) Michael Hoffman, The Last Station)

Special Achievement Award - Wes Anderson, Fantastic Mr. Fox



Edited By Sabin on 1259781579

[Big Magilla]

I don't know. The fun kind of went out of predicting the NBR when they went back to apphabetical listings and making a separate list for independent features. It was never difficult too predicting which films would be on the list, the fun was guessing the order in which they would place.

In the old days I would have expected Up in the Air; The Hurt Locker and An Education to head the list with Precious probably next in line. Nine would probably have made it along with A Serious Man and A Single Man, but I'm not so sure about Inglorious Basterds. Sometimes they embrace war movies, sometimes they snub them.

Forget The Lovely Bones. If they couldn't find room for any of the Lord of the Rings films on their lists, chances are they're not going to go for Peter Jackson's latest.

Sometimes they give their top film award to a film no one else will such as Hitchcock's Topaz, Far From the Madding Crowd and The Shoes of the Fisherman. If they revert to that this year, Invictus could be that film.

There will more than likely be an acting winner no one is predicting, though which actor in which category have no idea.



Edited By Big Magilla on 1259781483

[flipp525]

Really? No predictions yet for the first biggie of the year? Well, I'll roll it out then:

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker

Top ten:

The Hurt Locker
An Education
A Serious Man
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
A Single Man
Up in the Air
Nine
Inglorious Basterds
The Lovely Bones
(500) Days of Summer

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
(r/u: George Clooney, Up in the Air)

Best Actress: Carey Mulligan, An Education
(r/u: Gabourney Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire)

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds
(r/u: Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones)

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
(r/u: Rosamund Pike, An Education)

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
(r/u: Lee Daniels, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire)

Best Original Screenplay: A Serious Man
(r/u: Inglorious Basterds)

Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
(r/u: The Lovely Bones)

Breakthrough Male: Michael Stuhlburg

Breakthrough Female: Gabourey Sidibe

Best Ensemble: Nine

Best Animated Feature: Up

Best First Feature: A Single Man

Best Foreign Film: Broken Embraces



Edited By flipp525 on 1259867541