First 2009 predictions - It's time...

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Okri
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Post by Okri »

Zahveed wrote:I agree on Matt Damon and maybe throw adapted screenplay as a possibility. I don't believe anything else in the film is strong enough though.
Score? The musical branch is notoriously clique-y and it is Hamlisch.
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

Big Magilla wrote:
Mister Tee wrote:Again, I don't see why you guys are so down on Streep -- the best reviewed mainstream female perfomance of the year, in a box-office hit. Magilla, you doubted Prada all the way down the line. Are you trying to repeat that performance?
I don't recall saying she wouldn't be nominated for Prada, though I may have. I do recall saying she wouldn't win.

Prada was a cultural phenomenon, Julie& Julia is not - a Golden Globe nomination for sure and maybe even another win, but I just don't see an Oscar win. The nomination all depends on how the competition shapes up.
THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA made $124 million at the US boxoffice while JULIE AND JULIA will probably end up making around $95 million.

I am not sure what you mean by "cultural phenomenon," but it sounds like you are saying Meryl Streep might not be nominated for her performance because this film missed the $100 million mark by a couple million dollars.

I absolutely agree she is as unlikey to win for this performance as she was for her THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA performance, but I think a nomination seems pretty certain.

Betting against a Meryl Streep nomination is liking betting against a John Williams nom. If his score is even somewhat good and it is part of an even slightly Oscar-y film, he is most likely going to be nominated. The same with Streep. Her film was praised by critics, embraced by the public, and she is playing someone famous. If any nomination at this point in the race seems assured, it is Streep's.
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Post by Zahveed »

I agree on Matt Damon and maybe throw adapted screenplay as a possibility. I don't believe anything else in the film is strong enough though.



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Post by Sabin »

Considering that this looks to be a somewhat weak year for leading men, I think Matt Damon has to be taken into serious consideration for a nomination. Perhaps he'll even win a Comedy/Musical Golden Globe.

(Just for the sake of bumping an argument before it begins, I do not accept the notion that Daniel Day-Lewis is a "lock" for the Golden Globe anymore than I can accept the notion that anything is a lock for anything. Outside of the fact that Christoph Waltz is probably going to be nominated for Best Supporting Actor.)
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Post by Eric »

Mister Tee wrote:Okay, since everyone's talking about movies that may or may not live up to the hype...I know the advance word on Precious is fabulous, and Mo 'Nique and all that, but...a movie about an abused teenager who rescues her life thanks to a kindly school teacher? Does that not sound like a night in Oprah-ville? I certainly hope the buzz is correct, and the execution transcends the set-up. But the plot description doesn't do one thing to draw me in.
Agreed. In contrast to most of the other Oscar prognosticators who are starting to predict a full slate of nods for the movie, everything I've read so far is telling me the buck stops with Mo'Nique and maaaybe screenplay.
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Post by The Original BJ »

Just to chime in on Jeremy Renner's chances -- I agree with Mister Tee that he seems like a pretty weak candidate. I love The Hurt Locker, and think its Best Picture chances are safe, but Best Actor would have to be a wholly underwhelming field for a performance as non-dominant as Renner's to place. I think his characterization is very interesting, and it wouldn't be unworthy work to recognize, but let's just say it's the kind of performance that completely lacks an Oscar clip.

Also, the suggestion that Renner might be pushed for supporting was something I'd thought while watching the film, and didn't dare mention at the time for fear something that dumb would actually transpire. I truly hope people realize that just because a performance isn't dominant (like Renner's), doesn't mean it's supporting anybody. Not that anyone needs any more evidence to know how I feel about that subject.
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Post by Mister Tee »

Assorted comments:

Have all the people touting Jeremy Renner actually seen The Hurt Locker? Only a few of us have commented in the film's thread, and even BJ -- the film's biggest supporter -- expressed some doubt the performance meets the traditional Academy metric of big-ness. He's very good, but in a recessive sort of way. (O'Toole in Lawrence isn't remotely analogous) Occasionally such a performance can slip through (Dexter Gordon, Round Midnight), but it will take substantial critical support.

I don't get the sense Whip It is an Oscar movie at all. What I've read suggests an enjoyable crowd-pleaser -- i.e., about what you'd expect from Drew Barrymore. The directors, certainly, have never shown much inclination toward a nominee like that.

FilmFan, I'd say when the Weinsteins were promoting envelope-pushers like Crying Game/Piano/Pulp Fiction early this decade, their sales technique -- in addition to what you document -- consisted of running high concept campaigns almost extraneous to the films themselves. The Crying Game was The Big Secret; Pulp Fiction was Look at This Wacky Chatterbox Tarantino; Sling Blade, Check Out This Guy Whose Name Sounds Like He Fell Off a Turnip Truck; Good Will Hunting, Two Nice Kids from the Neighborhood Write a Movie. Sadly, they've mostly abandoned such films in favor of more obvious (and low-rent) Oscar bait. A Single Man might require them to go back to days of old. My guess? They'll sell everyone on, How could Colin Firth have been around so long without ever getting noticed?

Okay, since everyone's talking about movies that may or may not live up to the hype...I know the advance word on Precious is fabulous, and Mo 'Nique and all that, but...a movie about an abused teenager who rescues her life thanks to a kindly school teacher? Does that not sound like a night in Oprah-ville? I certainly hope the buzz is correct, and the execution transcends the set-up. But the plot description doesn't do one thing to draw me in.
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Post by Big Magilla »

Eric wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:It's a long shot but maybe Drew Barrymore could make it two female directors alongside Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker).
There could definitely be two female directors in this year's competition, but the one likely joining Bigelow would be Jane Campion or Lone Scherfig, not Barrymore.
I knew someone was going to bring Campion up, but I thought Bright Star was turning out to be less than was originally expected. I did say it was a long shot for Barrymore but what's the point of making predictions if you can't pull something crazy out of the air that actually turns out to be real in the end?
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Post by flipp525 »

Big Magilla wrote:will The Lovely Bones be another Lord of the Rings or another King Kong in terms of quality?

I think Heavenly Creatures might make for a more apt comparison.




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Post by Eric »

Big Magilla wrote:It's a long shot but maybe Drew Barrymore could make it two female directors alongside Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker).
There could definitely be two female directors in this year's competition, but the one likely joining Bigelow would be Jane Campion or Lone Scherfig, not Barrymore.
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Post by FilmFan720 »

Okri wrote:6. I don't know about the Weinsteins anymore. I know, The Reader means that they're back. But given how they botched I'm Not There, Control, Boy A, Breaking and E ntering and Factory Girl in recent years, I'm not holding out hope for A Single Man beyond Colin Firth.

Do you really think those Weinstein films you mentioned had any real shot at Oscar hope? I'm Not There had clearly the strongest profile, but an awful lot of people I know just found it baffling, so I'm not surprised it was limited to the one nod. And the others just didn't crack through with critics, which they needed to do to get support. Harvey doesn't revive the dead; he simply (to extend this metaphor to abusrdity) gets the sick to sit up, and helps the well run the marathon.[/quote]
I think that in certain ways the abilities of the Weinsteins are being overly praised here. Movies like Control and Boy A were never on Oscar's radar, nor ever really had a shot at being on their radar. The Weinsteins have had success at the Oscars in two ways.

The first is finding "Oscar-baity" films and pushing them to the point that they overachieve expectations, regardless of quality or critical reaction. The Reader last year was a prime example of this. Here is a film that seemed to have Oscar written all over it: twice nominated director, Oscar-beloved star, holocaust themes, hailed literary source, major character overcoming disability. Then, the reviews start coming out and no one likes it, yet the Weinsteins still manage to squeak out major nominations for it, much like they had Finding Neverland a few years before. When they find an Oscar-friendly film that people actually really like (The English Patient, Shakespeare in Love, Good Will Hunting), they still get it to overperform.

The second way that the Weinsteins are able to achieve Oscar success is finding culturally important films and turning them into cultural milestones. The way they can get films like The Crying Game or Pulp Fiction (neither of which screamed Oscar) into the race is by making them important moments in American culture and by turning them into the most talked about films of the year. They became so large and important that there was no way the Academy could avoid them. This way doesn't always lead to a lot of wins, but it certainly pushes them into the ring in a big way.

The list of "failures" you listed really had no chance of achieving either of these, except maybe Breaking and Entering. That was definitely botched. As for this new film, they may be able to push it into their second category, claiming this is the next great milestone in gay cinema, but I don't see it getting much more than a strong Best Actor nomination.
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Post by Big Magilla »

I tried to come up with my own predictions but I can't. There's still too much unknown.

Avatar, despite the underwhelming trailer may turn out to actually be a good movie. Invictus, despite the subject matter and Eastwood's usually assured direction, may turn out to be a snoozer.

We can pretty much guess that Nine will have the Chicago pizzazz, but will The Lovely Bones be another Lord of the Rings or another King Kong in terms of quality? Will The Tree of Life be another New Land or another Thin Red Line in terms of Oscar strength?

Of films already in release or seen by the critics at major film festivals, The Hurt Locker remains the critical favorite while Up in Air seems to be the one headed for surefire commercial success.

The directors of those two films, Kathryn Bigelow and Ivan Reitman seem to be the only real contenders in their category thus far.


The acting categories are starting to shape up but we still have a way to go.

George Clooney (Up in the Air), Colin Firth (A Single Man) and Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker) would seem to have the edge for Best Actor right now. With Daniel Day-Lewis (NIne) and Morgan Freeman (Invictus) penciled in by practically everyone since the beginning of the year to fill two of the slots, that doesn't leave much room for anyone else unless, of course, one or both of them fail to live up to expectations. Then who?

Best Actress, as Mister Tee and others have pointed out is skewering rather young this year, which likely means that at lest one slot will go to a veteran actress deservedly or not. Right now that would appear to be Meryl Streep (Julie and Julia) yet again. The award itself, though, is more likely to go to a Carey Mulligan (An Education), a Gibourey Sidibe (Precious) or an Ellen Page (Whip It). Saoirse Ronan (The Lovely Bones) and Hilary Swank (Amelia) are still unknowns at this point. Annette Bening who could take the token middle-aged actress spot, now generally assumed to be reserved for Streep, is in a film (Mother and Child) that so far lacks a distributor.

The Supporting Actor race thus far looks to be between heretofore unknowns Christoph Waltz (Inglorious Basterds), Anthony Mackie and Brian Geraghty (both The Hurt Locker).

The Supporting Actress race, except for Mo'Nique, about whom we've been hearing all year, could well be dominated by former winners such as Judi Dench and Penelope Cruz in Nine; Marcia Gay Harden in Whip It and Rachel Weisz in The Lovely Bones. Harden is getting rave reviews in Toronto, Dench and Cruz are in proven awards bait roles from their film's stage version and Weisz is playing an Oscar baity grieving mother.
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Post by Big Magilla »

Wells is high on A Single Man and Colin Firth's performance. I wouldn't underestimate this one, especially with Firth's Venice win already in the bag.

From Wells:

I caught and very much liked Tom Ford's A Single Man this morning. It's basically about passing through grief and despair and coming out alive on the other side. We're speaking of a very lulling and haunting thing to settle into. I can't rouse myself into full-on review mode, but the thoroughly readable feelings in the features of star Colin Firth -- longing, grief, numbness, curiosity, contentment -- keep the film aloft.

Along with the immaculate visual values, of course. A Single Man reminded me at times of Michelangelo Antonioni's Red Desert and La Notte. The conservative gayish vibe will mean box-office issues with hinterland heteros, I suppose (i.e., support hose), but it's so exquisitely composed and refined and well-written, etc. A huge hit with urban gay audiences, but film lovers of all persuasions owe it to themselves.
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Post by Big Magilla »

Whip It is getting surprisingly good reviews out of Toronto.

Add Ellen Page to Best Actress and Marcia Gay Harden to Best Supporting Actress. It's a long shot but maybe Drew Barrymore could make it two female directors alongside Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker).

Adding to the topicality both women have strong Patrick Swayze connections. Barrymore on screen (Donnie Darko), Bigelow behind the camera (Point Break) which could pick up some attention at the video store in the wake of Swayze's death which could help Bigelow's visibility.
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Post by rudeboy »

OscarGuy wrote:Supporting Actress:
Susan Sarandon
I'd dump Sarandon (assuming this prediction is for The Lovely Bones). Unless they've drastically fleshed out her character from the book she won't have much to work with. Weisz is a strong possibility for a supporting nod, but I doubt it'll get two unless Ronan is demoted to support.
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