First 2009 predictions - It's time...

Big Magilla
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Post by Big Magilla »

Mister Tee wrote:Again, I don't see why you guys are so down on Streep -- the best reviewed mainstream female perfomance of the year, in a box-office hit. Magilla, you doubted Prada all the way down the line. Are you trying to repeat that performance?
I don't recall saying she wouldn't be nominated for Prada, though I may have. I do recall saying she wouldn't win.

Prada was a cultural phenomenon, Julie& Julia is not - a Golden Globe nomination for sure and maybe even another win, but I just don't see an Oscar win. The nomination all depends on how the competition shapes up.
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Post by Zahveed »

The amount of potential Best Picture nominations, given the number now allowed, has made it difficult to narrow down possibilities in other categories. On the surface it seemed that a nod in those other categories gave the Best Picture nominations justifcation to be in their position, but with an abudance of films - good or bad being an opinion - who outside of the Academy can make a good call? You know for a fact there are those in the membership that vote based on who is in what and not on who was actually better.



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Post by FilmFan720 »

BEST PICTURE
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
The Road
Up
Up in the Air
Where the Wild Things Are

BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
John Hillcoat, The Road
Peter Jackson, The Lovely Bones
Rob Marshall, Nine

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Matt Damon, The Informant!
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Viggo Mortensen, The Road

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, Mother and Child
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Saorsie Roman, The Lovely Bones
Meryl Streep, Julia and Julia
Hilary Swank, Amelia

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Judi Dench, Nine
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo’Nique, Precious
Mia Wasikowska, Amelia
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flipp525
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Post by flipp525 »

rolotomasi99 wrote:You better believe I am going to be seeing this film as soon as E Street Cinema has it.

E Street Cinema is amazing. Everyone on this board would easily love it there.




Edited By flipp525 on 1253043382
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rolotomasi99
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

flipp525 wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:Venice Film Festival winner Colin Firth (A Single Man) on the male side.
What an obnoxiously pretentious trailer.
Agreed.

This is how you do an exciting movie trailer:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bs79_5n848Q
:p


On the other hand, seeing Colin Firth make out with another guy has been one of my personal fantasies since I saw him in BRIDGET JONES'S DIARY. You better believe I am going to be seeing this film as soon as E Street Cinema has it.
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Post by Mister Tee »

Big Magilla wrote:I think the feeling is that Streep has waited so long for a third Oscar that they don't want to just give it to her for anything. so while she may be nomianted for Julie and Julia there's probably not much chance of her winning.

The same is true for Swank. She's way too young to have three Oscars for a limited body of work, though she's more likely to get a nomination if her film proves award worthy in other categories. Streep's film has nothing going for it beyond Streep.

I think if there are five stronger performances, the two may not even be nominated, but where are those five performances? Mirren (The Last Station) and Bening (Mother and Child) are in vehicles that still don't have distributors. Same for Christopher Plummer (The Last Station) and Venice Film Festival winner Colin Firth (A Single Man) on the male side.

If you look under the TIFF and other Stuff thread, you'll see that A Single Man does indeed have a distributor...some guys name of Weinstein? Escalate expectations accordingly.

(On edit: Cross-posted with rolo)

Again, I don't see why you guys are so down on Streep -- the best reviewed mainstream female perfomance of the year, in a box-office hit. Magilla, you doubted Prada all the way down the line. Are you trying to repeat that performance?




Edited By Mister Tee on 1253041461
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Post by The Original BJ »

Amelia looks like it could have been made in '40's with Susan Hayward and it probably would have been the same movie Mira Nair made.

I'll echo Sabin's comments about District 9 being in the Best Picture race, something I remarked upon when I saw the film. Its genre makes it nothing like a sure thing, but I think it's solidly in the hunt.

I have no idea what they'll do with Inglourious Basterds, but its box-office success cannot be denied, and it's certainly staked its claim as a pop cultural talking point. It's more in the race than I ever would have thought upon seeing the film.

Both Up and The Hurt Locker strike me as very likely Best Picture nominees. The big question with The Hurt Locker will be whether its reach extends to director, and especially acting & screenplay categories.

I think Meryl Streep is a lot more likelier than not for a nomination. On paper there look like a good number of Actress possibilities, but a lot of them will prove to be non-starters. I'm not as certain about this nomination as I was with Prada (although perhaps I found her work in that film more special), but, as Mister Tee said, Meryl in a box-office hit for which she got quite strong reviews? That's not something I'd bet against at this point.
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

Big Magilla wrote:Mirren and Bening are in vehicles that still don't have distributors. Same for... Venice Film Festival winner Colin Firth (A Single Man) on the male side.
A SINGLE MAN was just picked up by the Weinsteins for a full Oscar push. Beyond Firth and Moore, I cannot imagine any other nominations. No way the directors nominate first-timer (not to mention former designer) Tom Ford and unfortunately the adapted screenplay field is pretty crowded.

Firth and Moore's chances really improved though, so I am very optimistic.

http://www.thewrap.com/article/twc-gets-single-man_7153
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Post by flipp525 »

Big Magilla wrote:Venice Film Festival winner Colin Firth (A Single Man) on the male side.
What an obnoxiously pretentious trailer.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
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Post by Sabin »

I think if there are five stronger performances, the two may not even be nominated, but where are those five performances? Mirren (The Last Station) and Bening (Mother and Child) are in vehicles that still don't have distributors. Same for Christopher Plummer (The Last Station) and Venice Film Festival winner Colin Firth (A Single Man) on the male side.

Yup. We're looking at a low-rated telecast.
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Post by Big Magilla »

I think the feeling is that Streep has waited so long for a third Oscar that they don't want to just give it to her for anything. so while she may be nomianted for Julie and Julia there's probably not much chance of her winning.

The same is true for Swank. She's way too young to have three Oscars for a limited body of work, though she's more likely to get a nomination if her film proves award worthy in other categories. Streep's film has nothing going for it beyond Streep.

I think if there are five stronger performances, the two may not even be nominated, but where are those five performances? Mirren (The Last Station) and Bening (Mother and Child) are in vehicles that still don't have distributors. Same for Christopher Plummer (The Last Station) and Venice Film Festival winner Colin Firth (A Single Man) on the male side.
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Post by OscarGuy »

But Mamma Mia landed $144 M to Prada's $124 M, so, wouldn't it have gone to figure that a success would have meant Meryl for Mamma?

I don't doubt that Meryl could get a nomination for reading the phone book, but let's not call her a lock just yet. I was beginning to think her chances were slowly slipping away...

And Amelia was an Oscar Hopeful as early as late last year. I don't know why people would just now be starting to talk about it. I had Swank pegged for a nod months ago.
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Post by Mister Tee »

When people start talking about Amelia as one of the Fall's hopefuls, I LOSE hope. It truly looks dreary.

What'll be interesting in the actress category is, how much youth can be served at one time? Sidibe and Mulligan are both getting serious critical buzz, but they're both beyond unknown, and can they both take slots from established names like Bening, Moore, Streep, Swank? And maybe Ronan in Lovely Bones will be a third youngster in the mix.

I think the possibility of Streep being euchred out is very slight. Remember, alot of folks were dubious about Devil Wears Prada. Julie and Julia is a bona fide commercial hit, and Streep got wonderful personal notices. I think that meets BJ's bird-in-hand definition quite nicely. Meyers' film would have to offer a CLEARLY better performance to slpit the vote.
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Post by Sabin »

Between Julie and Julia and Nancy Meyers' new movie, she may split the vote. It's certainly possible that she can get in.

I actually forgot about Amelia for reasons that it looks like an insane bore. If Cate Blanchett can get in over Elizabeth: The Golden Age, then Hilary Swank can get in. I guess let's sadly drop Sidibe for Swank.
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Post by flipp525 »

Sabin wrote:...I just read that Rodrigo Garcia's new film MOTHER AND SON features a brilliant performance by Annette Bening.

Let's get Hilary Swank in there for Amelia and we'll have Hilary v. Annette, Round 3!

Aren't you missing Meryl in this lineup? Four actresses under the age of 27 seems rather bold at this point.




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-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
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