First 2009 predictions - It's time...

Sabin
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Post by Sabin »

So, there's this rumor that 2009 sucks for movies? It doesn't. So far, I've seen at least ten movies that I enjoyed and wouldn't hestitate to give ***1/2. There just hasn't been much by way of **** masterpieces and/or movies that SCREAM Oscar. I ask you: is that a problem? DISTRICT 9, THE HURT LOCKER, INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS, and UP are in the Oscar hunt and are better than all of last year's Best Picture nominees save for MILK. There's big Oscar baiting on the horizon and some of them are likely to fall this Fall.

BEST PICTURE
DISTRICT 9
AN EDUCATION
THE HURT LOCKER
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
INVICTUS
THE LOVELY BONES
NINE
A SERIOUS MAN
UP
UP IN THE AIR

BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, THE HURT LOCKER
Joel & Ethan Coen, A SERIOUS MAN
Peter Jackson, THE LOVELY BONES
Jason Reitman, UP IN THE AIR
Quentin Tarantino, INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, UP IN THE AIR
Matt Damon, THE INFORMANT!
Daniel Day-Lewis, NINE
Morgan Freeman, INVICTUS
Michael Stuhlbarg, A SERIOUS MAN
...this looks like it's shaping up to be a weak year for Best Actor. I see nothing on the horizon. Someone like Stuhlbarg can't be in the lineup but who else?

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, MOTHER AND CHILD
Abbie Cornish, BRIGHT STAR
Penelope Cruz, BROKEN EMBRACES
Carey Mulligan, AN EDUCATION
Gabourey Sidibe, PRECIOUS

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christoph Waltz, INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
Does it matter?
Does it matter?
Does it matter?
Uh…Alfred Molina, AN EDUCATION

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz and/or Judi Dench, NINE
Vera Farmiga and/or Anna Kendrick, UP IN THE AIR
Mo’nique, PRECIOUS
Tragically not Edith Scob, SUMMER HOURS for a gloriously graceful performance that haunts the rest of the film
Rachel Weisz, THE LOVELY BONES but sadly not THE BROTHERS BLOOM




Edited By Sabin on 1253041562
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Post by MovieWes »

Big Magilla wrote:I do wish, however, they would go back to calling the film by its simple one-word title and not the totally ridiculous "Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire". There have been thousands of films based on novels with different titles and none have ever resorted to such long-winded tomfoolery. If the original title is so "precious" why not simply keep it?

I imagine that it has something to do with the fact that there was already a film released earlier this year by the title Push, so the studio changed it because the title was no longer available to them. It's kind of like how Paramount was forced to change the title of its upcoming film The Last Airbender because Avatar was already registered with the MPAA.




Edited By MovieWes on 1252639749
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

dreaMaker wrote:
rolotomasi99 wrote:
Mister Tee wrote: I really enjoyed THE BURNING PLAIN. I do not think it will be nominated for anything, but definitely recommend it to anyone who enjoyed 21 GRAMS and BABEL.
I enjoyed 21 Grams, but not Babel. However, i can't wait to see The Burning Plain.
I prefer 21 GRAMS to BABEL, but I was impressed with both.

Screenwriter Guillermo Arriaga's screenplay was much more focused on plot and actual character connections than his usual work. As some critics have pointed out, this is not necessarily a good thing. I kind of figured out where things were going early on, but I still enjoyed the journey.

Arriaga's directing debut, much like Charlie Kaufman last year, was quite impressive. The acting was good, but I am pretty sure the film will be completely ignored by the Academy. Still worth a rental.
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Post by dreaMaker »

rolotomasi99 wrote:
Mister Tee wrote: I really enjoyed THE BURNING PLAIN. I do not think it will be nominated for anything, but definitely recommend it to anyone who enjoyed 21 GRAMS and BABEL.
I enjoyed 21 Grams, but not Babel. However, i can't wait to see The Burning Plain.
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Post by dreaMaker »

rolotomasi99 wrote:
OscarGuy wrote:DISTRICT 9 seems like a good nominee, but there has been an issue lately with the mixing of make-up and computer generated effects. PLANET OF THE APES and THE HOURS both missed out on worthy nominations because of computer retouching of the make-up. I was thinking that might be an issue since I find it hard to believe there was no computer retouching on some of the alien effects.
Rejecting The Hours' and Planet of the Apes' makeup at the Oscars was total bullshit.
Why was Pirates of the Caribbean nominated? Or Click? Or Narnia? Or Revenge of the Sith? Or LOTR?
Give me a break.
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Post by Zahveed »

I can see a make-up nod for Inglourious Basterds. A "period piece" with a scarred neck, aging (Meyers), some detailed/graphic wounds, dirty basterds, and beautiful ladies - it can fit in.
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

OscarGuy wrote:My current predictions for nominations are:

Star Trek
Amelia
District 9

Other possible contenders include Inglouious Basterds, Harry Potter, Nine, Watchmen, Wolverine.


DISTRICT 9 seems like a good nominee, but there has been an issue lately with the mixing of make-up and computer generated effects. PLANET OF THE APES and THE HOURS both missed out on worthy nominations because of computer retouching of the make-up. I was thinking that might be an issue since I find it hard to believe there was no computer retouching on some of the alien effects.

Than again, Peter Jackson avoided being that problem on his creature-feature trilogy (except the second one for some reason), so maybe WETA was able to pull of the effects without mixing computers and make-up too much.

I thought STAR TREK's make-up was pretty bad, though some characters like the green-girl were supposed to look cheesy on purpose as a knowing wink to the original show's low budget.

AMELIA seems possible since biopics often find themselves nominated in this category for aging the actor playing the titular character, but [spoiler] unfortunately Amelia Earhart disappeared at a young age while flying. Making Swank a red head might be Oscar-worthy enough.

I do not recall much make-up work in either THE HALF-BLOOD PRINCE or WATCHMEN, and WOLVERINE's effects were as laughably bad as STAR TREK.

INGLORIOUS BASTERDS would definitely get points for its THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST level of bodily destruction, but then again the newest SAW film will do the same quality of work without getting anywhere near a nomination (thank the movie godesses).

NINE could very well get the hair and make-up award for literally just doing all the ladies' hair and make-up. Seems like a waste of an Oscar to me, but whatever.




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1252600903
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Post by OscarGuy »

My current predictions for nominations are:

Star Trek
Amelia
District 9

Let's not forget that makeup can also include hair. While it does do a lot of prosthetic work, sometimes great hair styles can earn films nominations, though not all the time.

Other possible contenders include Inglouious Basterds, Harry Potter, Nine, Watchmen, Wolverine.
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Post by The Original BJ »

rolotomasi99 wrote:With THE WOLFMAN and THE TEMPEST pushed to 2010, what exactly is going to be nominated in the make-up category?
I have no doubt they will find some bottom-of-the-barrel film upon which to bestow the title "Oscar nominee."
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

Mister Tee wrote:Tree of Life has, I believe, been confirmed for this year -- and The Tempest has been pushed to 2010.

Not only did the new At the Movies boys trash The Burning Plain, it's been running on IFC on Demand, which I'm led to believe is a disqualifier.

With THE WOLFMAN and THE TEMPEST pushed to 2010, what exactly is going to be nominated in the make-up category? Maybe this year they will just scrap the category.

I really enjoyed THE BURNING PLAIN. I do not think it will be nominated for anything, but definitely recommend it to anyone who enjoyed 21 GRAMS and BABEL.




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1252530444
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Post by Big Magilla »

flipp525 wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:Gibourey Sidibe (Precious) for Best Actress and Mo'nique (Precious)

Interesting. I can't remember which thread it was, but I seem to recall you putting up quite the fight when I said Mo'Nique was a strong contender for Best Supporting Actress (and this was several months ago). I think I even invoked The Original BJ's "bird in the hand" rule for early contenders (i.e., the most touted early contender typically finds their way into the race) and made a Shelley Winters in A Patch of Blue comparison to boot.

Perhaps the dearth of female contenders this year has led you to take the Precious women more seriously at this juncture.

Yes, yes, I do recall, but now we're approaching the end of the year and there still aren't any other serious contenders aside from the women in Nine so yes, the dearth of female contenders has helped change my mind along with the fact that both women are now on everyone's short lists.

I do wish, however, they would go back to calling the film by its simple one-word title and not the totally ridiculous "Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire". There have been thousands of films based on novels with different titles and none have ever resorted to such long-winded tomfoolery. If the original title is so "precious" why not simply keep it?

To use your comparison, could you imagine even wanting to see something called "A Patch of Blue: Based on the Novel Be Ready With Bells and Drums by Elizabeth Kata"?




Edited By Big Magilla on 1252529703
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Post by Zahveed »

I remember such a discussion, Flipp. It went on for quite some time.
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Post by flipp525 »

Big Magilla wrote:Gibourey Sidibe (Precious) for Best Actress and Mo'nique (Precious)

Interesting. I can't remember which thread it was, but I seem to recall you putting up quite the fight when I said Mo'Nique was a strong contender for Best Supporting Actress (and this was several months ago). I think I even invoked The Original BJ's "bird in the hand" rule for early contenders (i.e., the most touted early contender typically finds their way into the race) and made a Shelley Winters in A Patch of Blue comparison to boot.

Perhaps the dearth of female contenders this year has led you to take the Precious women more seriously at this juncture.




Edited By flipp525 on 1252525593
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Post by OscarGuy »

Well, The Burning Plain looked Oscar baity, but I'm ok if it isn't in the running.

And, several of those names you listed, Magilla, are in my short list (as I don't just list the top 5 in each category), but I was reticent to include some, especially so many with little name recognition. I know that the Babel girls were relative newcomers to Oscar, but that isn't nearly as common as many of us would like.

I'm still working on them. After posting them I realized what crap I had included still.
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Post by Reza »

flipp525 wrote:
Reza wrote:What about The Last Train with Christopher Plummer and Helen Mirren as the Tolstoys?

It's actually called The Last Station.

Yes ofcourse it is. My mistake. Thanks for pointing it out Flipp.

Anyway it would be nice to see Plummer finally nominated.




Edited By Reza on 1252522145
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