Slant Magazine's Predictions

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Post by Sabin »

OSCAR RACE 2009: WINNER PREDICTIONS - PICTURE
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 02/22/2009 15:04:48 In: Oscars Comments: 0

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - 20%
Frost/Nixon - 5%
Milk - 10%
The Reader - 20%
Slumdog Millionaire - 45%


Because it pushes that button. Because it makes them feel like sitting on trains. Because you know Sharon Stone texted Dev Patel: U R A Q T. Because it got them wondering why everyone got hustle on their mind. Because they like the sound of them knocking on the doors of their hummers. Because Bucky done gone. Because they shake their ass, making moves on a mover. Because Indian chicks, they get men laid. Because of gold and diamond gems and jades. Because of painted nails, sunsets on horizons. Because the price of living in a shanty town just seems very high. Because they're sick of all the shit that's keepin' them down. Because it got them to whistle, whistle, blow, blow.

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: Not The Reader or Frost/Nixon
"How's the despair?"
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OSCAR RACE 2009: WINNER PREDICTIONS - SOUND MIXING
By: Eric Henderson On: 02/21/2009 17:14:15 In: Oscars Comments: 0

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - 10%
The Dark Knight - 25%
Slumdog Millionaire - 30%
WALL*E - 25%
Wanted - 10%

As the presence of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (which was snubbed in the other sound category) would attest, Sound Mixing is the category that far more obviously favors best picture players. It's Sound Editing that usually tips toward the Masters and Commanders, the Lords of the Rings, the Kings Kongs as though the entire category were one big tie-in with Visual Effects and Makeup. So if Slumdog Millionaire is the frontrunner (or, given the remote possibility that we're wrong, a very, very strong contender) in Sound Editing, there's absolutely no reason to think that it won't take this in a walk. If that's not enough to convince you, remember that previous winners in this category include Chicago, Ray, and Dreamgirls. Oscar loves a showtune, and Slumdog's clodhopping but exuberant train station throwdown is the closest thing this category has to a showstopper.

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: WALL-E
"How's the despair?"
Sabin
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OSCAR RACE 2009: WINNER PREDICTIONS - COSTUME DESIGN
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 02/20/2009 14:45:44 In: Oscars Comments: 0

Australia - 15%
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - 25%
The Duchess - 40%
Milk - 10%
Revolutionary Road - 10%

Lessons learned from the winners in this category in the last decade: gothic is a no-no (just ask Colleen Atwood, who's only won for Chicago and Memoirs of a Geisha); the frilliest attires almost always rule, regardless of whether the film that contains them is an abomination (Elizabeth: The Golden Age); and in the rare cases where the Pre-Frilly and Post-Frilly eras reign supreme, the films must be Best Picture honorees (Gladiator, The Aviator) and boast costumes that are at least as opulent as the Taj Mahal and Sharon Stone's affections for Dev Patel. Weird that Slumdog Millionaire didn't manage a nomination here, but that only makes this one of the easiest calls of the evening. Anyone who tells you otherwise doesn't know Oscar or their Prada from their Pucci.

Will Win: The Duchess

Should Win: The Duchess
"How's the despair?"
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OSCAR RACE 2009: WINNER PREDICTIONS - SOUND EDITING
By: Eric Henderson On: 02/19/2009 15:27:48 In: Oscars Comments: 0

The Dark Knight - 30%
Iron Man - 5%
Slumdog Millionaire - 35%
WALL*E - 20%
Wanted - 10%

When trying to figure out what will win the sound awards this year, it's probably best to ignore or at least downplay the two p's—precedent and precursors—and instead try to imagine what, exactly, Oscar voters likely remember they heard when they watched each film, especially when it comes to this category and its vestigial connection to what the Academy used to call "sound effects." To wit:

Iron Man: "Rattle rattle, thunder clatter, boom boom boom."
WALL-E: "Beep borp boop, beepity boppity boop, brap tap tooie. Put on your Sunday clothes there's lots of world out there. Eeee-va! Waaaa-lee! Eeee-va! Waaaa-lee!"
Wanted: "Sorry, let me move into the other room for a minute, dear. No, I didn't drop anything. The kids are watching my screener of Wanted in the other room."
The Dark Knight: "Operator surveillance, please give me Jesus (or a reasonably comparable martyr figure) on the line. And let him listen to all my phone conversations just like Bush did."
Slumdog Millionaire: "This is what it sounds like when doves collectively spunk you in the face with their hot-pink jizz."

In plain English, you could spend a lot of time agonizing over what seems a pretty even playing field, but this is one of those years where the din of everything else stands to be drowned out completely by the unstoppable white noise of a juggernaut.

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: WALL-E
"How's the despair?"
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OSCAR RACE 2009: WINNER PREDICTIONS - CINEMATOGRAPHY
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 02/18/2009 14:44:11 In: Oscars Comments: 0

Changeling - 5%
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - 20%
The Dark Knight - 20%
The Reader - 15%
Slumdog Millionaire - 40%

Writing about what Eric calls the "most boringest" Oscar categories has become more boringer given the inevitability of a Slumdog Millionaire sweep on Sunday. So, why bring up the irony of Tom Stern finally snagging a nomination the same year the academy decided to keep Clint Eastwood out of the Best Picture race? Why consider the horrifying possibility of Roger Deakins winning an Oscar for a calculated awards-baiter such as The Reader and not for a Coen brothers flick? Why ponder if David Fincher's longtime lightning technician Claudio Miranda had to also tame his artistic vision to score an invite to the Oscars? Why contemplate how many more Chistopher Nolan films Wally Pfister will have to be nominated for before scoring a win here? Nope, we won't chew on any of those questions because, well, because you can't stop what's coming. Right?

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
"How's the despair?"
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OSCAR RACE 2009: WINNER PREDICTIONS - EDITING
By: Eric Henderson On: 02/17/2009 15:55:05 In: Oscars Comments: 0

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - 20%
The Dark Knight - 20%
Frost/Nixon - 5%
Milk - 15%
Slumdog Millionaire - 40%

The traditionalists view this as the "Best Picture-elect" category, and with four of the five contenders in that category in play here, it certainly looks like a done deal for what nearly every guild has now christened the only 2008 movie worth honoring. Slumdog Millionaire's suspense is pitched at about the same level as one of Regis Philbin's Meredith Vieira's pregnant pauses—which is to say it's a comfortable tease, but probably only works on those who are in the movie's hot seat. Fortunately, everyone who votes on movie awards this year seems to be pretty well strapped into that seat, and adding insurance are Slumdog's breathless, M.I.A.-infused montages and the fact that it sends audiences out with a production number. The other Best Picture nominees haven't got a prayer, though Benjamin Button's methodical, unshowy pacing is as responsible for the movie's alien, out-of-time effect as anything, and also allows the VFX team's work to weave itself into the tapestry without too much fanfare. (Too bad it will probably lose the vote of anyone who had to get up and change their colostomy bag during the film's 47-hour running time.) Of the two 1970s candidates, Milk's editing is defter by far, and should at least win a few points for the times when it chooses not to cut away (like when Sylvester wishes Harvey Milk a very gay birthday). Frost/Nixon only brings game when it parallels the central interviews with the spectacle of their respective handlers spiking footballs or recoiling in horror, but it's no All the President's Men. (And how do you let "I Feel Love" just sit there on the soundtrack without so much as a single syncopated cut?) If anything's going to beat Slumdog, it's The Dark Knight, because critically-acclaimed actioneers have proven stealth candidates in recent years here. But a lot of Knight's action sequences are spatially confusing, even by Paul Greengrass's standards.

Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: Milk
"How's the despair?"
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OSCAR RACE 2009: WINNER PREDICTIONS - DOCUMENTARY SHORT
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 02/16/2009 15:51:11 In: Oscars Comments: 0

The Conscience of Nhem En - 20%
The Final Inch - 25%
Smile Pinki - 30%
The Witness: From the Balcony of Room 306 - 25%

One more sign of Slumdog Millionaire's appeal is the presence of two films in this category revolving around maladies affecting the lives of impoverished children in India. The stronger of the two films is Irene Taylor Brodsky and Tom Grant's elegantly shot The Final Inch, which focuses on a group of foot soldiers devoted to eradicating polio from the face of the earth. In India, a Good Samaritan reveals how Muslims are more likely to receive the vaccine she brings to impoverished regions of the country if she's wearing a bhurka, while in America a man cycles across Texas to raise polio awareness and a 70-year-old North Carolina woman wishes she could leave her iron long to do the same: As such, this is less an exposé of the disease's effects on the private lives of its victims than it is an inquiry into personal and global responsibility in preventing the spread of polio. Voting for the film will make academy members feel as if they're paying its message forward, but so will Smile Pinki. Thousands of children are born with cleft lips every year in India to largely poor and superstitious parents and Megan Mylan's film documents the concerted efforts of a group of social workers and medical professionals to give these children pro bono cosmetic surgery so they could live lives without shame. Even though you feel Sally Struthers could walk on screen at any moment and shed a tear, the documentary provides moving insight into the fears and insecurities of impoverished denizens of the third world. More interestingly structured is four-time Academy Award nominee Steven Okazaki's The Conscience of Nhem En, a loose portrait of the man who took photographs of the tens of thousands of citizens who passed through the Khmer Rouge's S21 processing center in Cambodia, but this one seems like an easy win for Smile Pinki, unless voters feel that a vote for the PBS-grade The Witness: From the Balcony of Room 306, a series of reflections by the last living witness to the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr., is a way of acknowledging how they helped realize MLK's dream by voting for our new president.

Will Win: Smile Pinki

Should Win: The Final Inch
"How's the despair?"
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OSCAR RACE 2009: WINNER PREDICTIONS - ACTOR
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 02/14/2009 16:25:10 In: Oscars Comments: 2

Richard Jenkins, The Visitor - 10%
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon - 10%
Sean Penn - 40%
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - 5%
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler - 35%

In this corner, Mickey Rourke: winner of countless critics awards for his performance in The Wrestler, who has apparently pissed off more people than Perez Hilton; who called Perez Hilton a faggot and no one gave a shit, whose Hollywood story mirrors that of his character, who won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA and who doesn't have an Oscar to his name and may never be nominated for another one again, whose fans are fierce but respectful of the other guy's posse. And in this corner, Sean Penn: winner of countless critics awards for his performance in Milk, who has ostensibly pissed off more people than Fidel Castro, who said that Fidel Castro was good for Cuba and no one gave a shit, who has come a long way from being married to Madonna and being scared of the dick to swapping saliva with James Franco the same year Prop 8 passed in Oscar's home state of California, who won the SAG and the BFCA, whose fans are fierce but respectful of the other guy's posse. Flip a coin or follow our logic: Yes, you empathize more with Rourke's character, but we're of the opinion that this undervalued actor's "story" is being talked up more than his actual performance. That's not to say voters aren't being swayed by that story, but does Hollywood as a whole really feel it owes Rourke anything? We know Penn already has an Oscar, which definitely matters in a year where an acting race is this close, but whatever votes Penn will lose because of this will be countered by any ones he'll inevitably get from those guilt-tripped into thinking by the shrill Brokeback Mountain cult that a vote for Crash a few years ago was one against gay rights. It's a nail-biter all right, but we have to give this one to the veteran whose completely transformative performance enlivens the milquetoastiness of a movie that's creepily in sync with our volatile contemporary political moment.

Will Win: Sean Penn for Milk

Should Win: Sean Penn for Milk



OSCAR RACE 2009: WINNER PREDICTIONS - ART DIRECTION
By: Eric Henderson On: 02/15/2009 14:03:40 In: Oscars Comments: 0

Changeling - 15%
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - 40%
The Dark Knight - 15%
The Duchess - 25%
Revolutionary Road - 5%

Let's not make this category any more difficult than it has to be. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button has this one in the bag, not because it's the only Best Picture contender in the running, and not because it even has the best art direction on display. Oscar favors periods in both this and costume design, and while The Duchess and Changeling both contain the opulent flourishes and seamlessly accurate locations, respectively, from other eras that would normally take the prize here, the former missed out on a nomination by the Art Directors Guild, while the craftsmanship of the latter may simply be too subtle and lived-in to register with academy members. (That will almost certainly be the case with Revolutionary Road's oppressively mundane suburban interiors; they serve their purpose and drive Kate Winslet justifiably bonkers, but Oscar voters often opt for sets that scream "Wish you were here!") Lord knows why the academy decided to nominate the Batman franchise's sets for the first time since the Tim Burton era; no other film in the series has more heavily leaned on existing (i.e. Chicagoan) urban decay. (It's a wonder Slumdog Millionaire didn't sneak in here in its stead.) So Benjamin Button has this one almost by default, but it would've probably coasted to a win in any number of years. There's only one thing that can trump a period piece, and that's a multi-period piece.

Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Should Win: Changeling
"How's the despair?"
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Post by Eric »

Ah go on. That was likely my climax of invective for the year. None of my remaining scheduled categories should inspire such ire.
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Post by Franz Ferdinand »

Scathing, so true.
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Post by flipp525 »

Amazing, Eric! Kudos!
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Post by Sabin »

Yeah. Word. Just up and down the line: word.
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Post by Bog »

Fantastic article Eric....just fantastic
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OSCAR RACE 2009: WINNER PREDICTIONS - DIRECTOR
By: Eric Henderson On: 02/13/2009 14:11:48 In: Oscars Comments: 0

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire - 40%
Stephen Daldry, The Reader - 20%
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - 25%
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon - 5%
Gus Van Sant, Milk - 10%


Dear AMPAS directors' branch, we're done now. In years past, we've praised you for your odd-man-out nominations, the ones that paid tribute to tomorrow's masterpieces that were clearly never going to snag nominations in Best Picture (Mulholland Drive, Talk to Her, Vera Drake). We were disappointed in you in 2005, when you snubbed David Cronenberg, Terrence Malick, and Woody Allen in favor of Bennett Miller and Paul Haggis, but we gave you a simple demerit and forgot about the indiscretion as, in the following years, you gave Martin Scorsese and the Coens the chance to accept their long overdue career achievement-in-disguise prizes. That goodwill is gone now and we're through making excuses for what is fast becoming the most disappointing branch in the entire Academy. You've rewarded a particularly unrewarding Best Picture lineup with a Best Director slate that mirrors the academy's shame in its every elephantine sag. You've shown that you're only a fan of vital auteurs when they reign in and tame everything about themselves that excites their fans (Fincher, Van Sant). You've capriciously decided to end your love affair with all things Clint at the precise moment when he makes a zeitgeist-tapping blockbuster. Jesus fucking Christ, you've now nominated Stephen Daldry for every goddamned film he's ever directed! We're left with no choice now but to remember the bad times. 2001 is no longer the year you nominated David Lynch and Robert Altman but rather the year you didn't snub Ron Howard, opening the door for his easy win. 2007 is no longer the year you orchestrated a face-off between the Coens and Paul Thomas Anderson but instead the year you declared Jason Reitman cinema's great white hope. Face it, directors, you are hacks bent on rewarding hackery, as incapable of venerating your reputation against that of the academy-at-large as the academy-at-large was incapable of voting a competitive Oscar into Alfred Hitchcock's meathooks. To the extent that we give a watery shit, the academy ought to continue riding the Slumdog Millionaire bandwagon here, just as they rode the Brokeback Mountain bandwagon the last time the Picture/Director slates matched exactly. Meanwhile, directors' branch, I think you better call on Tyrone.

Will Win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
"How's the despair?"
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Post by Sabin »

I think there is absolutely no telling what song will win this competition. I hope it is "O Saya".

OSCAR RACE 2009: WINNER PREDICTIONS - SONG
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 02/12/2009 14:18:33 In: Oscars Comments: 0

"Down to Earth" ~ WALL*E - 25%
"Jai Ho" ~ Slumdog Millionaire - 50%
"O Saya" ~ Slumdog Millionaire

We aren't buying this theory that WALL-E will benefit from a vote split here because (a) the two Slumdog Millionaire songs don't suck, unlike that unholy trifecta from Dreamgirls two years ago (or the Enchanted ones from last year); (b) the Grammy-winning WALL-E tune sounds as if it was composed by Randy Newman; and © the academy doesn't really care about correcting epic-length losing streaks in the tech categories (sorry Thomas Newman). We're not even sure that "Down to Earth" has more support than "O Saya," because we know how many more times the latter has been downloaded and listened to, and no praise we've read for "Down to Earth" has equaled that of YouTube poster amoebchen's fondness for "O Saya": "Makes me want to dance, laugh, dream and cry at the same time!!!" For better capturing the essence of Slumdog Millionaire, or because I can't listen to "Jai Ho" without thinking of it as a Bollywood remix of Despina Vandi's "Gia," my personal vote goes to "O Saya," but I'm okay with it losing as long as M.I.A.'s water doesn't break for another two weeks. And though it's true that "Jai Ho" has yet to provoke homages from third-world prisons in its honor, it's still the only song here that can be reasonably called a phenomenonthe song that plays during Slumdog Millionaire's ecstatic closing credits, inviting the audience's applause before sending them on their giddy way.

Will Win: "Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire

Should Win: "O Saya" from Slumdog Millionaire
"How's the despair?"
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