flipp525 wrote:Has a predominantly non-English performance ever won in support?
No I don't think a predominantly non-English performance by an actress has ever won in support (De Niro won his first for one though) but there is always a first time.....and it is, after all, in a Woody Allen film....and she did speak in English as well.
Anyway it was just my personal opinion. Cruz was a front runner for a very long time until Winslet came along and there was confusion as to which category the latter would fit in.....the general consensus being that she would eventually get nominated in both categories especially after her dual wins at the Globes. I just think Cruz is a well known personality / actress in Hollywood which already got her one nod. It is just a feeling....a personal one....that I think she is the one who will win. I could be wrong ofcourse. Let's see.
However, my own pick from the five would be Tomei.
Eric wrote:I guess all this confusion means Tomei's going to win again, huh?
No, she's not. La Cruz will win.
Why, though? What's your reasoning? Personally I think Cruz peaked way too early -- she's sort of the Amy Ryan of this race. And I don't get the sense that there's either tons of vocal support for her performance or any desperate need to award her. Has a predominantly non-English performance ever won in support?
Because of the Kate Winslet situation, I think every "rule of thumb" has sort of been thrown to the dogs in this category. It's very exciting. With the lack of clear consensus frontrunner and so many other factors swirling around voters minds, I think we could have something of a big surprise (and yes, as Sabin and Eric, have intimated, even Tomei could walk away with the award at this point). All I say is thank god. I was dreading the inevitability (and sheer category fraud) of Winslet winning this. Her promotion to lead is the best thing that ever happened to these women.
Edited By flipp525 on 1233929315
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."
The appeal of Amy Adams' performance is way beyond me, but I can at least sort of see how she could clear a path to a win. Henson, on the other hand, I'm at a loss for both the performance and its Oscar viability. I'd argue Cate Blanchett's character and, to a lesser extent, her daughter represent the entire emotional heft of the movie. And it's not a particularly emotional movie anyway. I also don't see Henson winning on a sympathy vote for the movie, given it will probably pick up a small handful of tech awards. (Plus I don't understand the concept of a sympathy vote for a movie nominated for 13 awards.)
I guess all this confusion means Tomei's going to win again, huh?
Having just seen Vicky Cristina Barcelona, I have gone from predicting Penelope Cruz as the winner to her being the least likely to prevail. Basically, she's just doing a hot blooded Latino, and there's little more to her character than that (although she will get some support from some horny straight men for her lesbianics). Plus, most of her performance is in Spanish. And she's not funny (but then again, neither was the excruciating Mira Sorvino).
I really think Henson will win, being the emotional core of Benjamin Button, with Amy Adams as runner up. Viola Davis's role is too small and the scene is just not powerful enough for the victory -- if they didn't give it to a legend like Ruby Dee for her one big scene, I can't see them giving it to this little-known actress.
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"Y'know, that's one of the things I like about Mitt Romney. He's been consistent since he changed his mind." -- Christine O'Donnell
I agree with Magilla, I think voters could throw the Benjamin love toward Taranji, but I think Davis has it in the bag. Cruz is practically begging to get upset by now.
Edited By mashari on 1233858560
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FilmFan720 wrote:Taraji P. Henson seems to be falling into a hole that will be hard to climb out of. Benjamin Button is fading quickly, and Henson's best chance is to ride a bandwagon into a win (a la Juliette Binoche) but the bandwagon seems to have stalled.
Which is all the more reason why she may the film's big consolation prize.
Let's not forget that this category has seen more upsets than any other.
I think it's interesting how Kate Winslet has hurt this race. Everyone seemed so ready to give her the award here that they forgot how heavy a front-runner Penelope Cruz was what? A month ago?
I think that everyone is solidly IN the race, even Marisa Tomei. It's interesting to me that every single actor in this race is playing a fairly stereotypical archetype. The Innocent. The Crazy Genius. The Long-Suffering Mother. The Long-Suffering Mammy. The Long-Suffering Stripper/Mother.
This seems to be the most hotly contested race of the year, and one that should provoke a lot of conversation. Most of that stems from the fact that the SAG, Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award, the three most high profile and televised precursors, all chose Kate Winslet for the Reader, whereas the Oscars moved her into the lead category. I asked this before, and I don't think anyone could come up with one, but has there ever been a category in recent memory (since the influence and influx of precursors) where no one in the category has picked up one of these three? I don't think so.
That being said, I think the only candidate who I can rule out here is Marisa Tomei. While she has become well-liked by the Academy in recent years, especially after her initial win in 1992 garnered so much backlash, there doesn't seem to be a lot of sentiment that she should win a second award out there. On top of that, she gives the kind of performance that can garner a nod but not a win. She doesn't have any huge emotional moment, but gives a consistently wonderful performance throughout the film. I don't even know what scene they will choose for her.
Amy Adams gives a very polarizing performance in Doubt. Many people really like it, others find it grating and shallow. Those kind of performances can sneak through, and Adams is becoming quickly beloved around Hollywood. She could have the sentiment to sneak through, but I think anyway you look at it, she is second to another nominee (Davis is better in the same film, Cruz is flashier and more established in Hollywood).
Taraji P. Henson seems to be falling into a hole that will be hard to climb out of. Benjamin Button is fading quickly, and Henson's best chance is to ride a bandwagon into a win (a la Juliette Binoche) but the bandwagon seems to have stalled. She is another up and coming actress, but she is on her first nomination (unlike Adams and Cruz) in a role that again doesn't have any big, flashy moments to remember. She will get a chance later at another nod, and I don't think this is her year.
This leaves Viola Davis and Penelope Cruz, the two front-runners. Davis has the serious, more challenging role, asked to sell an idea in Doubt that most actors could not sell. She is excellent, but she is also a complete newcomer (most haven't heard of her) in an extremely small role. It is only that one scene, and although it is an important and memorable scene, the trend in recent years is to honor performances more bordering on lead than cameo. Cruz, on the other hand, is a gorgeous young Hollywood starlet with an extremely flashy role in a Woody Allen film, on her second nomination who has proven over the last few years that she has formidable talent on top of her looks. On paper that is a surefire win in this category. However, the film is very polarizing and could not even muster Allen a screenplay nod. The road to a win for her is much bumpier than it should be.
I think Cruz will sneak by...
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