WGA Announces Today

[OscarGuy]

Now, let's put WGA in perspective. For the last 7 years, only three of their Original Screenplay nominees carried over to the Oscars. Before that was a 4-year streak with 4-for-5. 1996 was the last time there was an exact duplication, with 1991, '92 and '93 as the only other times since 1977 that has occurred. Four used to be more common in Original Screenplay until these last 7 years, so either we'll see a similar fate this year (in which case, I wouldn't doubt if The Visitor and Burn After Reading failed to make the list and were replaced by WALL-E and Happy-Go-Lucky). Then again, what about Rachel Getting Married? Could it replace The Wrestler? or will it make it in ahead of Vicky Cristina Barcelona. There are too many films in this category to really say for sure who goes through.

Adapted Screenplay has been less static with a mostly four-for-five correlation in the last 20 years with 1990 and 2005 as the only perfect matches they've had. 3-out-of-5 has occurred a little more frequently in 1993, '96 and '01 in addition to the last two years.

So, it's more common to have 4-out-of-5 which certainly works against Dark Knight simply because I can't imagine any of the other four (maybe Doubt) being dropped. But what to take its place? Revolutionary Road and The Reader might have seemed like strong contenders had their guild support not been so abhorrently weak. The Scripters have a terrible track record matching up to the Oscars, but they picked Iron Man over Dark Knight, so they obviously have no bias against "super hero" movies. But even they can't help in this situation as they nommed both The Reader and Revolutionary Road and left out both Doubt and Frost/Nixon, the latter of which I'm seeing a strong chance at nomination.

I would then have to go by the critics which seem to favor Revolutionary Road far more than The Reader. None of the critics groups cited either film for a win, The Reader made it in at the Globes, but not at the Broadcast Critics (Where Road wasn't a nominee either) and both got Satellite nominations.

So, gut instinct would suggest Revolutionary Road over The Dark Knight, but if the Globes do pick The Reader as the winner, then it could make for a chance of Dark Knight getting a nom after all.

[Mister Tee]

With WGA, you always have to wonder if technicalities led to certain omissions. Wall E was certainly ineligible, as all previous PIXARs have been. Happy Go Lucky may have been, as well (Mike Leigh's only managed one prevous nomination, for all his Oscar success). But what about Rachel Getting Married? -- definitely the most shocking omission of this awards season so far if it's not based on contract issues. Original screenplay, in fact, only lists two (Milk & Vicky Christina) that were in my predicted Oscar five.

The big news on the adapted side is of course the Dark Knight inclusion -- the first true sign that fanboys' dream may come true on Oscar morning. The question: is this just the populist/comedy-voting segment of WGA -- the ones who've voted for Bend It Like Beckham/Mean Girls/The Devil Wears Prada over the years -- making its to-be-replaced-by-the-Oscars gesture, or a genuine sign the film is on its way to serious best picture contention? And does it mean lethal rejection for the two deadly-serious Winslet movies?

[Mister Tee]

The nominees, per Kris Tapley's site


Best Adapted Screenplay
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Eric Roth; based on the short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald)
“The Dark Knight” (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan; based on characters appearing in DC Comics)
“Doubt” (John Patrick Shanley; based on his play)
“Frost/Nixon” (Peter Morgan; based on his play)
“Slumdog Millionaire” (Simon Beaufoy; based on the novel “Q&A” by Vikas Swarup)

Best Original Screenplay
“Burn After Reading” (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
“Milk” (Dustin Lance Black)
“Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (Woody Allen)
“The Visitor” (Thomas McCarthy)
“The Wrestler” (Robert D. Siegel)

[criddic3]

Oops wrong thread

[OscarGuy]

Criddic, those are the American Society of Cinematographers nominees, not the WGA...

And we already had those results posted here real early this morning. And have also been on my site since before 7:00am.

[criddic3]

Let's pretend I didn't do that.



Edited By criddic3 on 1231346417

[OscarGuy]

I will post here the nominations when I find out what they are.

But, they are supposed to announce today some time.

Tomorrow's even bigger with DGA and Cinema Audio Society announcing nominees and Broadcast Critics announcing their winners.

Then we have Art Directors on Friday and Golden Globes on Sunday...am I the only one who feels like I'm being rushed through Oscar season?