Best Supporting Actor

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Post by flipp525 »

Sabin wrote:That's my way of joining the club. That's why I'm saying it.

Oh, okay. Cheers then, mate.

In Michael Clayton, Tom Wilkinson gave a hammy poor man's Howard Beale performance. His spot should've gone to either Josh Brolin or Tommy Lee Jones for No Country for Old Men or Max von Sydow for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.




Edited By flipp525 on 1232292465
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Post by Sabin »

That's my way of joining the club. That's why I'm saying it.

The reason that Marsan has a good chance is that everybody who votes for Hawkins however many that may be will likely vote for him as well which as I scour Ed Gonzalez's post - (doop be doo) - isn't exactly what he says but close enough. I thought last year's lineup of Supporting Actors was one of the best of my lifetime, easily the best since 1994 with the exception of Tom Wilkinson's bullshit performance (are we to believe that Clooney and Wilkinson are close friends and colleagues, let alone reside in the same universe?). I haven't seen Hoffman but if the lineup includes Brolin, Downey, Jr., Ledger, and Marsan, it's a damn fine follow-up.

Incidentally, Mike Kelly is pretty darn good in Changeling and considering how badly acted most of that film is, his character is something of a small movie in and of itself.




Edited By Sabin on 1232047553
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Post by flipp525 »

Sabin wrote:I've been thinking Marsan for a month now.

Join the club. That's what we've been saying.




Edited By flipp525 on 1232047503
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
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Post by Sabin »

I've been thinking Marsan for a month now.
"How's the despair?"
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Post by flipp525 »

The Original BJ wrote:I SOOOO wish I had posted my prediction line-up with Eddie Marsan, pre-National Society prize, just to have proof. At that point, he seemed like a non-contender, but now plenty of people are predicting him for that fifth spot.

Eddie Marsan was my "way-off guess" for awhile there too, but I suppose, as you stated, BJ, he's no longer as off-the-radar as he was when his film first arrived on the scene.

Now, I'm going with a completely out-of-nowhere nomination for Michael Kelly whose subtle and powerful performance as Det. Lester Ybarra in Changeling, the detective who inadvertently stumbles upon a horrific crime, provided for the quiet moral beacon in a bevy of corruption portrayed by his, at times, overacting fellow supporting players.

Btw, does Ed Gonzalez have similar articles for the other acting races available?




Edited By flipp525 on 1232038335
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
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Post by Reza »

Big Magilla wrote:If Patel is nominated it should be in lead.
I agree because his is a lead role although with the current lineup of lead contenders it would be easier for the Academy to fit him into the supporting category instead. If anyone in Slumdog belongs in the supporting category it is Anil Kapoor.
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Post by barrybrooks8 »

I am sticking with my way-off guess of Ralph Fiennes, for the Reader.
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Post by OscarGuy »

Wow. I just realized that I didnt have Eddie Marsan anywhere on my list. I don't remember anyone mentioning it, but I just realized he's not there as I was looking for other contenders. I think there's one that no one has been talking about, but which I could see making a real shocking mention: Kevin Bacon. He gives perhaps one of his strongest performances ever and while I don't like the character he plays, he does nail it. With all the love for Frost/Nixon, I'm surprised they haven't tried to get more nomination. Wouldn't it be an absolute hoot if Bacon, the one actor from Mystic River who didn't get a nomination, managed to come out of nowhere and pick one up?
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Post by Big Magilla »

I would prefer James Franco in Milk to either Marsan or Patel. If Patel is nominated it should be in lead.
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Post by The Original BJ »

I SOOOO wish I had posted my prediction line-up with Eddie Marsan, pre-National Society prize, just to have proof. At that point, he seemed like a non-contender, but now plenty of people are predicting him for that fifth spot.

If he makes the list, I will feel both totally excited and totally smart.

And if he doesn't, well, I'll certainly emote my feelings more expressively than anything Dev Patel does onscreen.
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Post by Franz Ferdinand »

Oscar Race 2009: Nomination Predictions - Supporting Actor
By: Ed Gonzalez On: 01/14/2009 16:41:33

Why a person is nominated for a supporting actor or actress Oscar often has a lot to do with riding coattails, which probably explains why it takes so long for awards prognosticators to pin down the nominees in these two categories: It's all about waiting to see which films catch fire at the box office—or on the blogosphere, where most Oscar campaigns seem to be launched nowadays. At the start of the awards season, which begins for some almost as soon as the credits roll on any given year's Oscar ceremony, few of this year's likely nominees seemed to be on anyone's radar. Even Heath Ledger, whose death has been largely attributed to his intense thesping as the Joker in Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight, was making few shortlists many months ago until everyone collectively agreed that a nomination for the late actor would be something more than just a gesture of remorse. Another sure lock, Robert Downey Jr. will receive his first nomination in more than a decade for his role in Ben Stiller's wretched Tropic Thunder in a bid that seems less like a reward than a consolation for there being no room for him in the Best Actor category for his performance in Iron Man. And seeing as Sean Penn and Meryl Streep are locks in the Best Actor and Actress categories, it seems impossible to imagine Josh Brolin and Philip Seymour Hoffman missing out here given how their respective performances in Milk and Doubt are inextricably bound to those of their costars.

That leaves one wild spot, and though we're tempted to give it to Dev Patel for Slumdog Millionaire, to do so would acknowledge that the Screen Actors Guild nailed this lineup when the group announced its nominees several weeks ago, but SAG has accurately forecasted the five nominees in this category exactly once. So, assuming Patel is unable to ride the immense success and popularity of Slumdog to a nomination, that leaves the fifth spot open for either Michael Shannon or Eddie Marsan. Though Shannon has gotten raves across the board for his memorable performance as a mental patient in Revolutionary Road, the buzz surrounding Sam Mendes's prestige picture fizzled out almost as soon as it came out. Months ago, no one was raving as loudly about Marsan's turn as a lunatic driving instructor in Mike Leigh's Happy-Go-Lucky, but just as the collective critical community has practically made Sally Hawkins a frontrunner in the Best Actress category, they've also made Marsan something of one here. It'll be a close one, but we say: En Ra Ha!

Will Be Nominated: Josh Brolin for Milk, Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder, Philip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt, Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight, and Eddie Marsan for Happy-Go-Lucky

Should Be Nominated: Bill Irwin for Rachel Getting Married, John Malkovich for Burn After Reading, Eddie Marsan for Happy-Go-Lucky, Danny McBride for Pineapple Express, and Jeffrey Wright for Cadillac Records
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