Tee, Animated Film won't be five. The rules say that only if there are 16 or more eligible films will there be five nominees. There aren't, so it's three.
I have also prepped a similar, slightly more detailed analysis Peter's already edited for me. I'll be posting that tonight along with the first of my pre-Oscar Final predictions.
Alphabet Soup
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Mister Tee
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Personal matters are keeping me from my usual devotion to this week's nominations -- I may not even be around on nominations morning. But I thought I'd try at least an abbreviated version of the alphabetical cues-to-listen-for as we hear the lucky names read off Thursday.
Supporting actor…If James Brolin isn't the first name heard, there'll be quite a stir -- either from the lucky unexpected nominee ahead of him, or in the Brolin household. Assume he comes first. One of the major questions will be answered next: Is Downey Jr. in or out? His glut of nominations has persuaded most of you he's set, but the unprecedented nature of his role makes me doubt to the end. Another gray-area guy comes next: James Franco, still on life-support for Milk. Should both he and Downey make it, the competition is over, as Hoffman and Ledger are locked in. Should one miss, we'll have to wait till the end to find out if it's Marsan, Patel or Shannon who's cashed in. (Amend that to two if Downey and Franco are both left off)
Supporting actress…A cutthroat game of musical chairs, as I see seven candidates for the five slots. Amy Adams, as three years ago, is in or out at the opening gun. Cruz and Davis would appear to be no-doubters. That leaves either one or two slots open before the certain Kate Winslet at the end -- to be fought over by barely-alive DeWitt, Henson, and Tomei.
Lead actor…Most of the action is at the top, fighting over two available spots (the rest to be claimed further on by Langella, Penn and Rourke). Long-long shot Del Toro leads off, with DiCaprio and Eastwood right behind, and Jenkins also preceding the big three. The only contender further down is Brad Pitt, who has the advantage/disadvantage of knowing his fate merely by how many of those four gentlemen turn up. If it's only one, Brad receives his first best actor nomination. Two, he's left out.
Lead actress…A similarly tough derby, but one more spread around. The seemingly unlikely but not dead Blanchett would come first. If she's in, only one of four shaky hopefuls (Hawkins, Jolie, Leo, Scott Thomas) will likely make it. If Hathaway -- a sure thing -- leads off, there's more room for the indie ladies. Hawkins, Jolie, Leo all follow Hathaway in order. It's exceedingly likely two at most will be named (unless there's a Winslet snub, something more likely here than in support). If only one is named -- following Hathaway -- then it would appear Kristen Scott Thomas' campaign stayed alive against all odds.
Director…Named alphabetically by film title, so I don't see how Fincher can fail to be named first. Next follow the two most vulnerable of the DGA five. First, Part one of The Big Question: is Nolan truly going to play in the Oscar leagues? And then, is Howard going to get another nod from the directors' branch, or was his Apollo 13 snub more indicative of general feeling toward him? If one or both of the two is left off, there'll be heavy jockeying to fill the spot(s), spaced around the reasonably certain van Sant and Boyle. Mike Leigh is first up, with the barely-alive Demme preceding Boyle, and Darren Aronofsky forced to wait till the end for a verdict. (Or is there a shocker out there I'm not seeing? It strikes me that, over recent years, the directors' branch has been the most likely to spring a surprise, either with a nominee we didn't envision at all -- Meirelles, Reitman -- or one that had seemed far down the list -- Almodovar, Leigh, Greengrass)
Adapted screenplay…I don't think there's anyone not predicting Button-Doubt-Frost/Nixon and Slumdog. The only suspense is that fifth slot. Again, if the answer is Yes on Dark Knight, it comes early. If not, the two Winslet "R" films seem most likely. But is there an unseen candidate out there -- a foreign-language effort, as the writers' branch has so often favored? I've been told Tell No One is ineligible, or I'd have pushed that. Is there another of which I'm not thinking?
Original screenplay…The widest, most unsettled field, by me -- I find ten contenders I can't 100% rule out. The early batch (all on the bubble) consists of Gran Torino, Happy Go Lucky and In Bruges (some might include Burn After Reading, but I can't take that seriously despite WGA). I'd be shocked if more than one of these made the cut, and not surprised a bit if all were left off. Milk is the first dead-certain nominee, followed by a make-or-break moment for Rachel Getting Married. If, at this point, Milk is the only nominee, I'd say the rest of the field will almost certainly be Vicky Christina, The Visitor, Wall E and The Wrestler. If there are two by then, drop The Vistor or The Wrestler. If three…your guess is as good as mine.
Animated feature…The main question appears to be, will Bolt be the first name read out? If so, it's likely Bolt, Kung Fu Panda and Wall E. Unless…they bump the category to five, the way they did in '02. In which case, Waltz with Bashir would remain alive, and titles like Horton Hears a Who or Madagascar 2 would be in the mix.
Film…Again, Benjamin Button should lead the way -- and then the moment that makes or breaks the dreams of fanboys throughout the nation: Dark Knight ruled in or out. Frost/Nixon faces a similar "is it really strong enough?" moment. I know many of you are publicly doubting Milk, but I think it's far too strong a contender to be omitted. So..imagine either Knight or Nixon isn't there. What then (besides the certain Slumdog)? Some on other sites are mimicking BAFTA and saying The Reader, but I can't imagine such a financially unsuccessful film knocking out major hits. The easy call is Wall E, and that's what I'd expect. But I'm not 100% ready to discount The Wrestler, if Aronofsky has made it for director and the script has slipped in.
Okay, kids, that’s all I can manage.
Supporting actor…If James Brolin isn't the first name heard, there'll be quite a stir -- either from the lucky unexpected nominee ahead of him, or in the Brolin household. Assume he comes first. One of the major questions will be answered next: Is Downey Jr. in or out? His glut of nominations has persuaded most of you he's set, but the unprecedented nature of his role makes me doubt to the end. Another gray-area guy comes next: James Franco, still on life-support for Milk. Should both he and Downey make it, the competition is over, as Hoffman and Ledger are locked in. Should one miss, we'll have to wait till the end to find out if it's Marsan, Patel or Shannon who's cashed in. (Amend that to two if Downey and Franco are both left off)
Supporting actress…A cutthroat game of musical chairs, as I see seven candidates for the five slots. Amy Adams, as three years ago, is in or out at the opening gun. Cruz and Davis would appear to be no-doubters. That leaves either one or two slots open before the certain Kate Winslet at the end -- to be fought over by barely-alive DeWitt, Henson, and Tomei.
Lead actor…Most of the action is at the top, fighting over two available spots (the rest to be claimed further on by Langella, Penn and Rourke). Long-long shot Del Toro leads off, with DiCaprio and Eastwood right behind, and Jenkins also preceding the big three. The only contender further down is Brad Pitt, who has the advantage/disadvantage of knowing his fate merely by how many of those four gentlemen turn up. If it's only one, Brad receives his first best actor nomination. Two, he's left out.
Lead actress…A similarly tough derby, but one more spread around. The seemingly unlikely but not dead Blanchett would come first. If she's in, only one of four shaky hopefuls (Hawkins, Jolie, Leo, Scott Thomas) will likely make it. If Hathaway -- a sure thing -- leads off, there's more room for the indie ladies. Hawkins, Jolie, Leo all follow Hathaway in order. It's exceedingly likely two at most will be named (unless there's a Winslet snub, something more likely here than in support). If only one is named -- following Hathaway -- then it would appear Kristen Scott Thomas' campaign stayed alive against all odds.
Director…Named alphabetically by film title, so I don't see how Fincher can fail to be named first. Next follow the two most vulnerable of the DGA five. First, Part one of The Big Question: is Nolan truly going to play in the Oscar leagues? And then, is Howard going to get another nod from the directors' branch, or was his Apollo 13 snub more indicative of general feeling toward him? If one or both of the two is left off, there'll be heavy jockeying to fill the spot(s), spaced around the reasonably certain van Sant and Boyle. Mike Leigh is first up, with the barely-alive Demme preceding Boyle, and Darren Aronofsky forced to wait till the end for a verdict. (Or is there a shocker out there I'm not seeing? It strikes me that, over recent years, the directors' branch has been the most likely to spring a surprise, either with a nominee we didn't envision at all -- Meirelles, Reitman -- or one that had seemed far down the list -- Almodovar, Leigh, Greengrass)
Adapted screenplay…I don't think there's anyone not predicting Button-Doubt-Frost/Nixon and Slumdog. The only suspense is that fifth slot. Again, if the answer is Yes on Dark Knight, it comes early. If not, the two Winslet "R" films seem most likely. But is there an unseen candidate out there -- a foreign-language effort, as the writers' branch has so often favored? I've been told Tell No One is ineligible, or I'd have pushed that. Is there another of which I'm not thinking?
Original screenplay…The widest, most unsettled field, by me -- I find ten contenders I can't 100% rule out. The early batch (all on the bubble) consists of Gran Torino, Happy Go Lucky and In Bruges (some might include Burn After Reading, but I can't take that seriously despite WGA). I'd be shocked if more than one of these made the cut, and not surprised a bit if all were left off. Milk is the first dead-certain nominee, followed by a make-or-break moment for Rachel Getting Married. If, at this point, Milk is the only nominee, I'd say the rest of the field will almost certainly be Vicky Christina, The Visitor, Wall E and The Wrestler. If there are two by then, drop The Vistor or The Wrestler. If three…your guess is as good as mine.
Animated feature…The main question appears to be, will Bolt be the first name read out? If so, it's likely Bolt, Kung Fu Panda and Wall E. Unless…they bump the category to five, the way they did in '02. In which case, Waltz with Bashir would remain alive, and titles like Horton Hears a Who or Madagascar 2 would be in the mix.
Film…Again, Benjamin Button should lead the way -- and then the moment that makes or breaks the dreams of fanboys throughout the nation: Dark Knight ruled in or out. Frost/Nixon faces a similar "is it really strong enough?" moment. I know many of you are publicly doubting Milk, but I think it's far too strong a contender to be omitted. So..imagine either Knight or Nixon isn't there. What then (besides the certain Slumdog)? Some on other sites are mimicking BAFTA and saying The Reader, but I can't imagine such a financially unsuccessful film knocking out major hits. The easy call is Wall E, and that's what I'd expect. But I'm not 100% ready to discount The Wrestler, if Aronofsky has made it for director and the script has slipped in.
Okay, kids, that’s all I can manage.