Post-Globe Predictions

[OscarGuy]

Winner predictions are a little amorphous at the present time. A lot depends on reception of the Oscars overall and nomination totals in particular. Plus, we'll have to see how things pan out with the SAG awards, PGA, DGA, etc...The only thing I'm focused on right now are nominations. I'll re-evaluate winners later in the game.

[Sabin]

I mostly agree with your predictions but I don't think there's any chance that The Curious Case of Benjamin Button will win even close to eight Oscars.

[OscarGuy]

And my final Nominations Predictions Analysis has been added.

Part III awaits:

http://www.oscarguy.com/Oscars/Annual/81st/Hopefuls.html

[OscarGuy]

Part II has been posted.

[OscarGuy]

Here are my final predictions. Some categories now have comments with my thoughts on the races. I'll be posting more tomorrow morning and the final set on Wednesday.

http://www.oscarguy.com/Oscars/Annual/81st/Hopefuls.html

[anonymous1980]

These are pretty much final:

BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Warner Bros./Paramount) Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall and Cean Chaffin, producers.

The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) Charles Roven, Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, producers.

Frost/Nixon (Imagine Entertainment) Ron Howard and Brian Grazer, producers.

Milk (Focus Features) Bruce Cohen, Dan Jinks and Michael London, producers.

Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) Christian Colson, producer.


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING

David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight

Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino

Gus Van Sant, Milk

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino

Richard Jenkins, The Visitor

Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon

Sean Penn, Milk

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married

Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky

Meryl Streep, Doubt

Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Josh Brolin, Milk

Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire


BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Amy Adams, Doubt

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Viola Davis, Doubt

Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Kate Winslet, The Reader


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Milk
Written by Dustin Lance Black

Rachel Getting Married
Written by Jenny Lumet

Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Written by Woody Allen

WALL-E
Screenplay by Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon
Story by Andrew Stanton and Pete Docter

The Wrestler
Written by Robert D. Siegel


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Screenplay by Eric Roth
Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
Based on the short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald

The Dark Knight
Screenplay by Christopher Nolan and Jonathan Nolan
Screen story by Christopher, Jonathan Nolan and David S. Goyer
Based on the DC Comics created by Bob Kane

Frost/Nixon
Screenplay by Peter Morgan
Based on his play

The Reader
Screenplay by David Hare
Based on the novel by Bernard Schlink

Slumdog Millionaire
Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy
Based on the novel Q & A by Vikas Swarup


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Kung Fu Panda (Dreamworks) Mark Osborne and John Stevenson

WALL-E (Disney/PIXAR) Andrew Stanton

Waltz with Bashir (Sony Pictures Classics) Ari Folman


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY

Claudio Miranda, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight

Chris Menges and Roger Deakins, The Reader

Roger Deakins, Revolutionary Road

Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING

Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Lee Smith, The Dark Knight

Mike Hill and Dan Hanley, Frost/Nixon

Elliot Graham, Milk

Chris Dickens, Slumdog Millionaire


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION

Australia
Catherine Martin (art direction) & Beverley Dunn (set decoration)

Changeling
James J. Murakami (art direction) & Gary Fettis (set decoration)

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Donald Graham Burt (art direction) & Victor J. Zolfo (set decoration)

The Dark Knight
Nathan Crowley (art direction) & Peter Lando (set decoration)

The Reader
Briggite Broch (art direction) & Eva Stiebler (set decoration)


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE

Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Hans Zimmer, Frost/Nixon

Danny Elfman, Milk

A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire

Thomas Newman, WALL-E


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG

"Barking at the Moon", Bolt
Music & lyrics by Jenny Lewis

"Down to Earth", WALL-E
Music by Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman
Lyrics by Peter Gabriel

"Jai Ho", Slumdog Millionaire
Music & lyrics by A.R. Rahman

"O Saya", Slumdog Millionaire
Music & lyrics by A.R. Rahman

"The Wrestler", The Wrestler
Music & lyrics by Bruce Springsteen


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN

Catherine Martin, Australia

Deborah Hopper, Changeling

Jacqueline West, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Albert Wolsky, Revolutionary Road

Patricia Field, Sex and the City


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ren Klyce, David Parker and Michael Semanick.

The Dark Knight
Gary Rizzo, Lora Hirschberg and Ed Novick

Iron Man
Christopher Boyes, Lora Hirschberg and Michael Silvers.

Slumdog Millionaire
Richard Pryke, Ian Tapp and Resul Pookutty

WALL-E
Ben Burtt, Tom Myers and Michael Semanick


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING

The Dark Knight
Richard King

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Ben Burtt and Richard Hymns

Iron Man
Frank Eulner

Kung Fu Panda
Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van Der Ryn..

WALL-E
Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood.


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Eric Barba, Paul Griffin, Steve Preeg and Whei Zeng.

The Dark Knight
Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Tim Angulo and Paul J. Franklin

Iron Man
John Nelson, Ben Snow, Hal Hickel and David Andrews


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Greg Cannom and Elaine L. Offers.

The Dark Knight
Conor O'Sullivan and Peter Robb-King

Tropic Thunder
Matthew W. Mungle and Michele Burke.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Baadof Meinhof Complex, Germany (Dune Films)
Uli Edel, director.

The Class, France (Sony Pictures Classics/Canal+)
Laurence Cantet, director.

Everlasting Moments, Sweden (IFC Films)
Jan Troell, director.

The Necessities of Life, Canada (Telefilm Canada)
Benoit Pilon, director.

Waltz with Bashir, Israel (Sony Pictures Classics)
Ari Folman, director.

[dylanfan23]

Sonic,

good predictions...but if you do predict perfectly, i think there is no way they don't give kate the win in supporting after they ignore her for revolutionary road....the backlash over the snub will generate a guarenteed win for the reader...just my thoughts about that. But i honestly don't think she's getting ignored for rev road.

[dylanfan23]

I don't really enjoy the predicting part of this, i'd much rather root for my favorites...but here goes. I'll give my honest predictions, then i'll give which i think would be the replacements if mine don't get in, and then i'll give the most vulnerable of my nominees. Then i'll give my biggest wants, and that will only be out of films or performances that are realistic and some might be pretty much guarenteed, but they are my biggest wants in the catorgory.

Then i'll make comments...i'm at such a loss though because i'm so behind in seeing films because of some health problems...i'll be seeing curious case, gran torino and the wrestler this week...so its hard for me to deal with those without seeing them...i've seen mostly everything else.

Picture:

Curious Case
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionare
Wall E

Replacement: Dark Knight, Gran Torino
Most Vulnerable: Wall E, Milk, Frost/Nixon
Biggest Wants: Milk

Obviously slumdog and curious case are solid...i have to think frost/nixon and milk is going to get in but i wouldn't be shocked if one of them was left off. I don't think its going to be frost/nixon and i would be incredibly dissappointed if it was milk...but i have a bad feeling its going to be milk. It just feels like so long ago it was released, i hope they don't forget it. If thats the case than both dark knight and wall e would get in. But i feel one will get in and wall e is loved by many so i'm going to say wall e...if this was pre animated catorogry, i would say it would be guarenteed a spot, but i'll still say wall e and i hope milk.

Director:

Boyle
Fincher
Howard
Nolan
Van Sant

Replacement: Aranofsky, Stanton, Demme
Vulnerable: Nolan, Van Sant, Howard
Wants: Van Sant, Demme

This is a funky catorgory....only boyle and fincher are guarenteed spots in my mind. Just like with best picture i feel van sant and howard will get spots here...and where the dark knight fails in the other catorgory i think the directors will nominate nolan...just a hunch. Aranofsky could be here, stanton, demme...i hope its demme but anything is possible to replace maybe howard or van sant.

Actor

Dicaprio
Eastwood
Langella
Penn
Rourke

Replacements: Pitt, Jenkins
Vulnerable: Dicaprio, Eastwood
Wants: Penn, Dicaprio

I went out on the limb picking dicaprio, i think it might be because i saw revolutionary road and will be seeing button this week. Maybe after i see it i'll think differently. But i was very impressed with dicaprio and they nominated him before for lesser work. I think this was some of his best work of his career. His nomination will completely depend on how enthusiastic the actors are about revolutionary road and my gut tells me they will be enthusiastic. It also depends on if they fall in love with button or not...and my gut says a no to that one...so i say leo over brad. Eastwood is vulnerable and i'll have a better opinion after i see it, but if the movie is at all audience friendly i think he gets in, and i have a feeling it is.

Actress:

Hathaway
Hawkins
Streep
Williams
Winslet

Replacements: Jolie, Leo, Blanchett, Thomas
Vulneralbe: Williams, Hawkins
Wants: Winslet, Streep, Hawkins, Hathaway

I said jolie until today....and i really have no reason for picking williams over jolie. I just keep seeing a love for wendy and lucy in different critics places. It just reminds me of the love for in america, and morton got a nomination out of that, so i say williams gets in over jolie. I personally liked changeling very much so i want it to get in somewhere. The other four nominees were all in top form, much like all the nominees two years ago when mirren won...leo was also very good so i wouldn't be shocked if she found her way in but i just have a hunch its williams.

Supporting Actor:

Brolin
Downey
Franco
Hoffman
Ledger

Replacements: Patel, Marsan
Vulneralbe: Franco, Downey
Wants: Ledger, Marsan, Franco, Irwin

I'm fairly confident with this lineup but only if they really like milk. If they don't then i can see a shocker here. If they like milk than franco will get in, if not anyone can get in. I would love to see marsan but life isn't that fair...so maybe feinnes could sneak in. But hopefully they will like milk and that lineup will be the lineup. Or better yet, they leave downey out and put franco and marsan in.

Supporting Actress

Adams
Cruz
Davis
Tomai
Winslet

Replacement: Henson
Vulnerable: Adams, Tomai
Wants: Winslet, Adams, Cruz, Dewitt

I'll have a better idea after i see button this week, i am starting to feel the same about henson as i am feeling for shannon in the actor catorgory, all hype and no love. If they love botton i can see her replacing tomai or adams. Moreso tomai. Maybe they will come to there senses and sit tomai and henson and pick dewitt.

Adapted Screenplay

Curious Case
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionare

Replacements: Dark Knight, The Reader
Vulnerable: Revolutionary Road, Doubt, Frost/Nixon
Wants: Frost Nixon, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionare

I really have no idea...i can see them leaving off doubt or frost/nixon....they will probably leave off revolutionary road though if they put the dark knight or the reader in. Again i have a feeling they put rev road in and leave the dark knight out.

Original Screenplay

Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall E
Wrestler

Replacements: Happy Go Lucky, Gran Torino, Changeling, Visitor, Burn After Reading
Vulnerable: Rachel Getting Married, Wrestler, Wall E, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wants: Milk, Rachel Getting Married, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Changeling

I really have no idea with this one....i could get one right here and i wouldn't be shocked. I picked the films i think they will be passionate about, rachel getting married, the wrestler and wall e...and then woody...thats how i came about the five...they could easily go with the visitor or happy go lucky though...and if they go with burn after reading i'll be very dissappointed.

[Sonic Youth]

Predictions. * means winner.

Best Picture

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
*Slumdog Millionaire

Best Director

Woody Allen - Vicki Cristina Barcelona
*Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Chris Nolan - The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant - Milk

(No guts, no glory: Woody takes that "fifth slot". I'm wondering if support for it runs deeper than we realise. It had a far better precursor run than "Match Point" did.)

Best Lead Actor

Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
*Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

(I'm vacillating between Penn and Rourke, but I'm thinking the momentum changed when Rourke thanked his yappy dogs --- No guts, no glory: no Eastwood, no way, no how... maybe.)

Best Lead Actress

*Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Meryl Streep - Doubt

(No guts, no glory: no Kate Winslet, and a significant internet sub-culture pulls a Jonestown.)

Best Supporting Actor

Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey, Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
*Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire


Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams - Doubt
*Penelope Cruz - Vicki Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Kate Winslet - The Reader

(Is not predicting Winslet for the win a NGNG move?)

Best Original Screenplay

*Milk
Vicki Cristina Barcelona
The Visitor
Wall-E
The Wrestler

(I'm so, so tempted to put Burn After Reading here as the ultimate in NGNG. Let's pretend I predicted it if it gets nommed, okay? Thanks.)

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
*Slumdog Millionaire



Edited By Sonic Youth on 1232368139

[rolotomasi99]

barrybrooks8's long-shot predictions made me think about my own wtf possibilities. these are definitely the nominations you know are not going to happen but yet somehow still seem plausible.

--best picture--
synecdoche, new york

--director--
synecdoche, new york

--adapted screenplay--
paranoid park

--original screenplay--
tropic thunder

--actor--
robert downey - iron man

--actress--
michelle williams - wendy and lucy

--supporting actor--
brad pitt - burn after reading

--supporting actress--
misty upham - frozen river

--editing--
iron man

--cinematograph--
paranoid park

--set--
hellboy 2

--costume--
mamma mia

--score--
the happening

--sound--
tropic thunder



Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1232345816

[barrybrooks8]

Here are my final predictions before Thursday, with a long-ish shot for each category:


BEST PICTURE

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Longshot: Doubt


BEST DIRECTOR

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
Gus Van Sant, Milk

Longshot: Laurent Cantet, The Class

BEST ACTOR

Benicio Del Toro, Che
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Longshot: Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon

BEST ACTRESS

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Longshot: Emma Thompson, Last Chance Harvey

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr, Tropic Thunder
Ralph Fiennes, The Reader
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Longshot: Emile Hirsch, Milk

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Longshot: Emma Thompson, Brideshead Revisited

BEST ANIMATED PICTURE

Bolt
Wall-E
Waltz with Bashir

Longshot: $9.99

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall-E

Longshot: Frozen River

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Longshot: The Class

BEST SCORE

Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

Longshot: Iron Man

BEST SONG

"Down to Earth," Wall-E
"Gran Torino," Gran Torino
"Jai Ho," Slumdog Millionaire
"Little Person," Synecdoche New York
"The Wrestler," The Wrestler

Longshot: "Right to Dream," Tennessee

BEST EDITING

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Longshot: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Revolutionary Road

Longshot: Doubt

BEST COSTUME

Brideshead Revisited
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
The Reader

Longshot: The Dark Knight


BEST MAKEUP

The Dark Knight
The Reader
Synecdoche, New York

Longshot: Tropic Thunder

BEST SOUND

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

Longshot: The Wrestler

BEST SOUND EDITING

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Mamma Mia!
Wall-E

Longshot: The Bank Job

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Iron Man
Journey to the Center of the Earth

Longshot: Australia

BEST FOREIGN FILM

Departures, Japan
The Necessities of Life, Canada
Revanche, Austria
Tear This Heart Out, Mexico
Three Monkeys, Turkey

Longshot: Der Baader Meinhof Komplex, Germany


BEST DOCUMENTARY

Blessed is the Match
Glass
I.O.U.S.A.
Man on Wire
They Killed Sister Dorothy

Longshot: The Betrayal

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Downstream
The Final Inch
Tongzhi in Love

Longshot: Viva La Causa



Am I crazy that I am leaving off Franco, Pitt, Jolie, and Jenkins? The 3/5 Picture-Director match-up? I also had a very hard time including Hawkins...my gut tells me she'll be left off the list in favor of Jolie or Scott-Thomas.

[MovieWes]

Call me crazy, but I've got a hunch that this year's surprise nominee (like out of left field like Tommy Lee Jones was last year) is going to be a Best Actress nomination for Michelle Williams in Wendy and Lucy.

Don't you think Michelle Williams is TOO left field? Tommy Lee Jones has more of a name and was around for decades....and a previous Oscar winner to boot. In fact it would have been a crime if he hadn't been nominated for Elah. A greater performance than the over praised Day-Lewis last year.

Think Melissa Leo (Frozen River) instead.

I don't know. She's a previous Oscar nominee and she's gotten some great reviews for her performance. I've heard her name mentioned as a possible surprise on TV. Plus, with Heath Ledger as this year's sentimental choice, she could get swept up in all the sentiment as well.

[Reza]

The Globe certainly but not by the Academy....for Mamma Mia.

[Okri]

No, we wouldn't be. She doesn't get nominated for everything, even though it certainly feels like it.

[barrybrooks8]

Random thought regarding Doubt:

If Doubt had not come out this year, would we all be predicting Meryl Streep for Mamma Mia instead. Despite the fact that I think she can do no wrong, she has become the person who gets nominated no matter what (Music of the Heart). Would she have nabbed a nod?