Post-Globe Predictions
- OscarGuy
- Site Admin
- Posts: 13668
- Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
- Location: Springfield, MO
- Contact:
Winner predictions are a little amorphous at the present time. A lot depends on reception of the Oscars overall and nomination totals in particular. Plus, we'll have to see how things pan out with the SAG awards, PGA, DGA, etc...The only thing I'm focused on right now are nominations. I'll re-evaluate winners later in the game.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
- OscarGuy
- Site Admin
- Posts: 13668
- Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
- Location: Springfield, MO
- Contact:
And my final Nominations Predictions Analysis has been added.
Part III awaits:
http://www.oscarguy.com/Oscars/Annual/81st/Hopefuls.html
Part III awaits:
http://www.oscarguy.com/Oscars/Annual/81st/Hopefuls.html
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
- OscarGuy
- Site Admin
- Posts: 13668
- Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
- Location: Springfield, MO
- Contact:
Here are my final predictions. Some categories now have comments with my thoughts on the races. I'll be posting more tomorrow morning and the final set on Wednesday.
http://www.oscarguy.com/Oscars/Annual/81st/Hopefuls.html
http://www.oscarguy.com/Oscars/Annual/81st/Hopefuls.html
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
-
- Laureate
- Posts: 6384
- Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 10:03 pm
- Location: Manila
- Contact:
These are pretty much final:
BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Warner Bros./Paramount) Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall and Cean Chaffin, producers.
The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) Charles Roven, Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, producers.
Frost/Nixon (Imagine Entertainment) Ron Howard and Brian Grazer, producers.
Milk (Focus Features) Bruce Cohen, Dan Jinks and Michael London, producers.
Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) Christian Colson, producer.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Milk
Written by Dustin Lance Black
Rachel Getting Married
Written by Jenny Lumet
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Written by Woody Allen
WALL-E
Screenplay by Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon
Story by Andrew Stanton and Pete Docter
The Wrestler
Written by Robert D. Siegel
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Screenplay by Eric Roth
Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
Based on the short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald
The Dark Knight
Screenplay by Christopher Nolan and Jonathan Nolan
Screen story by Christopher, Jonathan Nolan and David S. Goyer
Based on the DC Comics created by Bob Kane
Frost/Nixon
Screenplay by Peter Morgan
Based on his play
The Reader
Screenplay by David Hare
Based on the novel by Bernard Schlink
Slumdog Millionaire
Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy
Based on the novel Q & A by Vikas Swarup
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Kung Fu Panda (Dreamworks) Mark Osborne and John Stevenson
WALL-E (Disney/PIXAR) Andrew Stanton
Waltz with Bashir (Sony Pictures Classics) Ari Folman
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Claudio Miranda, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight
Chris Menges and Roger Deakins, The Reader
Roger Deakins, Revolutionary Road
Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Lee Smith, The Dark Knight
Mike Hill and Dan Hanley, Frost/Nixon
Elliot Graham, Milk
Chris Dickens, Slumdog Millionaire
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
Australia
Catherine Martin (art direction) & Beverley Dunn (set decoration)
Changeling
James J. Murakami (art direction) & Gary Fettis (set decoration)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Donald Graham Burt (art direction) & Victor J. Zolfo (set decoration)
The Dark Knight
Nathan Crowley (art direction) & Peter Lando (set decoration)
The Reader
Briggite Broch (art direction) & Eva Stiebler (set decoration)
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Hans Zimmer, Frost/Nixon
Danny Elfman, Milk
A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Thomas Newman, WALL-E
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG
"Barking at the Moon", Bolt
Music & lyrics by Jenny Lewis
"Down to Earth", WALL-E
Music by Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman
Lyrics by Peter Gabriel
"Jai Ho", Slumdog Millionaire
Music & lyrics by A.R. Rahman
"O Saya", Slumdog Millionaire
Music & lyrics by A.R. Rahman
"The Wrestler", The Wrestler
Music & lyrics by Bruce Springsteen
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Catherine Martin, Australia
Deborah Hopper, Changeling
Jacqueline West, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Albert Wolsky, Revolutionary Road
Patricia Field, Sex and the City
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ren Klyce, David Parker and Michael Semanick.
The Dark Knight
Gary Rizzo, Lora Hirschberg and Ed Novick
Iron Man
Christopher Boyes, Lora Hirschberg and Michael Silvers.
Slumdog Millionaire
Richard Pryke, Ian Tapp and Resul Pookutty
WALL-E
Ben Burtt, Tom Myers and Michael Semanick
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
The Dark Knight
Richard King
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Ben Burtt and Richard Hymns
Iron Man
Frank Eulner
Kung Fu Panda
Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van Der Ryn..
WALL-E
Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Eric Barba, Paul Griffin, Steve Preeg and Whei Zeng.
The Dark Knight
Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Tim Angulo and Paul J. Franklin
Iron Man
John Nelson, Ben Snow, Hal Hickel and David Andrews
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Greg Cannom and Elaine L. Offers.
The Dark Knight
Conor O'Sullivan and Peter Robb-King
Tropic Thunder
Matthew W. Mungle and Michele Burke.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Baadof Meinhof Complex, Germany (Dune Films)
Uli Edel, director.
The Class, France (Sony Pictures Classics/Canal+)
Laurence Cantet, director.
Everlasting Moments, Sweden (IFC Films)
Jan Troell, director.
The Necessities of Life, Canada (Telefilm Canada)
Benoit Pilon, director.
Waltz with Bashir, Israel (Sony Pictures Classics)
Ari Folman, director.
BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Warner Bros./Paramount) Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall and Cean Chaffin, producers.
The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) Charles Roven, Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, producers.
Frost/Nixon (Imagine Entertainment) Ron Howard and Brian Grazer, producers.
Milk (Focus Features) Bruce Cohen, Dan Jinks and Michael London, producers.
Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) Christian Colson, producer.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Milk
Written by Dustin Lance Black
Rachel Getting Married
Written by Jenny Lumet
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Written by Woody Allen
WALL-E
Screenplay by Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon
Story by Andrew Stanton and Pete Docter
The Wrestler
Written by Robert D. Siegel
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Screenplay by Eric Roth
Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
Based on the short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald
The Dark Knight
Screenplay by Christopher Nolan and Jonathan Nolan
Screen story by Christopher, Jonathan Nolan and David S. Goyer
Based on the DC Comics created by Bob Kane
Frost/Nixon
Screenplay by Peter Morgan
Based on his play
The Reader
Screenplay by David Hare
Based on the novel by Bernard Schlink
Slumdog Millionaire
Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy
Based on the novel Q & A by Vikas Swarup
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Kung Fu Panda (Dreamworks) Mark Osborne and John Stevenson
WALL-E (Disney/PIXAR) Andrew Stanton
Waltz with Bashir (Sony Pictures Classics) Ari Folman
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Claudio Miranda, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight
Chris Menges and Roger Deakins, The Reader
Roger Deakins, Revolutionary Road
Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Lee Smith, The Dark Knight
Mike Hill and Dan Hanley, Frost/Nixon
Elliot Graham, Milk
Chris Dickens, Slumdog Millionaire
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
Australia
Catherine Martin (art direction) & Beverley Dunn (set decoration)
Changeling
James J. Murakami (art direction) & Gary Fettis (set decoration)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Donald Graham Burt (art direction) & Victor J. Zolfo (set decoration)
The Dark Knight
Nathan Crowley (art direction) & Peter Lando (set decoration)
The Reader
Briggite Broch (art direction) & Eva Stiebler (set decoration)
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Hans Zimmer, Frost/Nixon
Danny Elfman, Milk
A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Thomas Newman, WALL-E
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG
"Barking at the Moon", Bolt
Music & lyrics by Jenny Lewis
"Down to Earth", WALL-E
Music by Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman
Lyrics by Peter Gabriel
"Jai Ho", Slumdog Millionaire
Music & lyrics by A.R. Rahman
"O Saya", Slumdog Millionaire
Music & lyrics by A.R. Rahman
"The Wrestler", The Wrestler
Music & lyrics by Bruce Springsteen
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Catherine Martin, Australia
Deborah Hopper, Changeling
Jacqueline West, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Albert Wolsky, Revolutionary Road
Patricia Field, Sex and the City
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ren Klyce, David Parker and Michael Semanick.
The Dark Knight
Gary Rizzo, Lora Hirschberg and Ed Novick
Iron Man
Christopher Boyes, Lora Hirschberg and Michael Silvers.
Slumdog Millionaire
Richard Pryke, Ian Tapp and Resul Pookutty
WALL-E
Ben Burtt, Tom Myers and Michael Semanick
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
The Dark Knight
Richard King
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Ben Burtt and Richard Hymns
Iron Man
Frank Eulner
Kung Fu Panda
Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van Der Ryn..
WALL-E
Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Eric Barba, Paul Griffin, Steve Preeg and Whei Zeng.
The Dark Knight
Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Tim Angulo and Paul J. Franklin
Iron Man
John Nelson, Ben Snow, Hal Hickel and David Andrews
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Greg Cannom and Elaine L. Offers.
The Dark Knight
Conor O'Sullivan and Peter Robb-King
Tropic Thunder
Matthew W. Mungle and Michele Burke.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Baadof Meinhof Complex, Germany (Dune Films)
Uli Edel, director.
The Class, France (Sony Pictures Classics/Canal+)
Laurence Cantet, director.
Everlasting Moments, Sweden (IFC Films)
Jan Troell, director.
The Necessities of Life, Canada (Telefilm Canada)
Benoit Pilon, director.
Waltz with Bashir, Israel (Sony Pictures Classics)
Ari Folman, director.
-
- Temp
- Posts: 475
- Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 1:46 pm
- Location: Belleville, NJ
Sonic,
good predictions...but if you do predict perfectly, i think there is no way they don't give kate the win in supporting after they ignore her for revolutionary road....the backlash over the snub will generate a guarenteed win for the reader...just my thoughts about that. But i honestly don't think she's getting ignored for rev road.
good predictions...but if you do predict perfectly, i think there is no way they don't give kate the win in supporting after they ignore her for revolutionary road....the backlash over the snub will generate a guarenteed win for the reader...just my thoughts about that. But i honestly don't think she's getting ignored for rev road.
-
- Temp
- Posts: 475
- Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 1:46 pm
- Location: Belleville, NJ
I don't really enjoy the predicting part of this, i'd much rather root for my favorites...but here goes. I'll give my honest predictions, then i'll give which i think would be the replacements if mine don't get in, and then i'll give the most vulnerable of my nominees. Then i'll give my biggest wants, and that will only be out of films or performances that are realistic and some might be pretty much guarenteed, but they are my biggest wants in the catorgory.
Then i'll make comments...i'm at such a loss though because i'm so behind in seeing films because of some health problems...i'll be seeing curious case, gran torino and the wrestler this week...so its hard for me to deal with those without seeing them...i've seen mostly everything else.
Picture:
Curious Case
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionare
Wall E
Replacement: Dark Knight, Gran Torino
Most Vulnerable: Wall E, Milk, Frost/Nixon
Biggest Wants: Milk
Obviously slumdog and curious case are solid...i have to think frost/nixon and milk is going to get in but i wouldn't be shocked if one of them was left off. I don't think its going to be frost/nixon and i would be incredibly dissappointed if it was milk...but i have a bad feeling its going to be milk. It just feels like so long ago it was released, i hope they don't forget it. If thats the case than both dark knight and wall e would get in. But i feel one will get in and wall e is loved by many so i'm going to say wall e...if this was pre animated catorogry, i would say it would be guarenteed a spot, but i'll still say wall e and i hope milk.
Director:
Boyle
Fincher
Howard
Nolan
Van Sant
Replacement: Aranofsky, Stanton, Demme
Vulnerable: Nolan, Van Sant, Howard
Wants: Van Sant, Demme
This is a funky catorgory....only boyle and fincher are guarenteed spots in my mind. Just like with best picture i feel van sant and howard will get spots here...and where the dark knight fails in the other catorgory i think the directors will nominate nolan...just a hunch. Aranofsky could be here, stanton, demme...i hope its demme but anything is possible to replace maybe howard or van sant.
Actor
Dicaprio
Eastwood
Langella
Penn
Rourke
Replacements: Pitt, Jenkins
Vulnerable: Dicaprio, Eastwood
Wants: Penn, Dicaprio
I went out on the limb picking dicaprio, i think it might be because i saw revolutionary road and will be seeing button this week. Maybe after i see it i'll think differently. But i was very impressed with dicaprio and they nominated him before for lesser work. I think this was some of his best work of his career. His nomination will completely depend on how enthusiastic the actors are about revolutionary road and my gut tells me they will be enthusiastic. It also depends on if they fall in love with button or not...and my gut says a no to that one...so i say leo over brad. Eastwood is vulnerable and i'll have a better opinion after i see it, but if the movie is at all audience friendly i think he gets in, and i have a feeling it is.
Actress:
Hathaway
Hawkins
Streep
Williams
Winslet
Replacements: Jolie, Leo, Blanchett, Thomas
Vulneralbe: Williams, Hawkins
Wants: Winslet, Streep, Hawkins, Hathaway
I said jolie until today....and i really have no reason for picking williams over jolie. I just keep seeing a love for wendy and lucy in different critics places. It just reminds me of the love for in america, and morton got a nomination out of that, so i say williams gets in over jolie. I personally liked changeling very much so i want it to get in somewhere. The other four nominees were all in top form, much like all the nominees two years ago when mirren won...leo was also very good so i wouldn't be shocked if she found her way in but i just have a hunch its williams.
Supporting Actor:
Brolin
Downey
Franco
Hoffman
Ledger
Replacements: Patel, Marsan
Vulneralbe: Franco, Downey
Wants: Ledger, Marsan, Franco, Irwin
I'm fairly confident with this lineup but only if they really like milk. If they don't then i can see a shocker here. If they like milk than franco will get in, if not anyone can get in. I would love to see marsan but life isn't that fair...so maybe feinnes could sneak in. But hopefully they will like milk and that lineup will be the lineup. Or better yet, they leave downey out and put franco and marsan in.
Supporting Actress
Adams
Cruz
Davis
Tomai
Winslet
Replacement: Henson
Vulnerable: Adams, Tomai
Wants: Winslet, Adams, Cruz, Dewitt
I'll have a better idea after i see button this week, i am starting to feel the same about henson as i am feeling for shannon in the actor catorgory, all hype and no love. If they love botton i can see her replacing tomai or adams. Moreso tomai. Maybe they will come to there senses and sit tomai and henson and pick dewitt.
Adapted Screenplay
Curious Case
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionare
Replacements: Dark Knight, The Reader
Vulnerable: Revolutionary Road, Doubt, Frost/Nixon
Wants: Frost Nixon, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionare
I really have no idea...i can see them leaving off doubt or frost/nixon....they will probably leave off revolutionary road though if they put the dark knight or the reader in. Again i have a feeling they put rev road in and leave the dark knight out.
Original Screenplay
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall E
Wrestler
Replacements: Happy Go Lucky, Gran Torino, Changeling, Visitor, Burn After Reading
Vulnerable: Rachel Getting Married, Wrestler, Wall E, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wants: Milk, Rachel Getting Married, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Changeling
I really have no idea with this one....i could get one right here and i wouldn't be shocked. I picked the films i think they will be passionate about, rachel getting married, the wrestler and wall e...and then woody...thats how i came about the five...they could easily go with the visitor or happy go lucky though...and if they go with burn after reading i'll be very dissappointed.
Then i'll make comments...i'm at such a loss though because i'm so behind in seeing films because of some health problems...i'll be seeing curious case, gran torino and the wrestler this week...so its hard for me to deal with those without seeing them...i've seen mostly everything else.
Picture:
Curious Case
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionare
Wall E
Replacement: Dark Knight, Gran Torino
Most Vulnerable: Wall E, Milk, Frost/Nixon
Biggest Wants: Milk
Obviously slumdog and curious case are solid...i have to think frost/nixon and milk is going to get in but i wouldn't be shocked if one of them was left off. I don't think its going to be frost/nixon and i would be incredibly dissappointed if it was milk...but i have a bad feeling its going to be milk. It just feels like so long ago it was released, i hope they don't forget it. If thats the case than both dark knight and wall e would get in. But i feel one will get in and wall e is loved by many so i'm going to say wall e...if this was pre animated catorogry, i would say it would be guarenteed a spot, but i'll still say wall e and i hope milk.
Director:
Boyle
Fincher
Howard
Nolan
Van Sant
Replacement: Aranofsky, Stanton, Demme
Vulnerable: Nolan, Van Sant, Howard
Wants: Van Sant, Demme
This is a funky catorgory....only boyle and fincher are guarenteed spots in my mind. Just like with best picture i feel van sant and howard will get spots here...and where the dark knight fails in the other catorgory i think the directors will nominate nolan...just a hunch. Aranofsky could be here, stanton, demme...i hope its demme but anything is possible to replace maybe howard or van sant.
Actor
Dicaprio
Eastwood
Langella
Penn
Rourke
Replacements: Pitt, Jenkins
Vulnerable: Dicaprio, Eastwood
Wants: Penn, Dicaprio
I went out on the limb picking dicaprio, i think it might be because i saw revolutionary road and will be seeing button this week. Maybe after i see it i'll think differently. But i was very impressed with dicaprio and they nominated him before for lesser work. I think this was some of his best work of his career. His nomination will completely depend on how enthusiastic the actors are about revolutionary road and my gut tells me they will be enthusiastic. It also depends on if they fall in love with button or not...and my gut says a no to that one...so i say leo over brad. Eastwood is vulnerable and i'll have a better opinion after i see it, but if the movie is at all audience friendly i think he gets in, and i have a feeling it is.
Actress:
Hathaway
Hawkins
Streep
Williams
Winslet
Replacements: Jolie, Leo, Blanchett, Thomas
Vulneralbe: Williams, Hawkins
Wants: Winslet, Streep, Hawkins, Hathaway
I said jolie until today....and i really have no reason for picking williams over jolie. I just keep seeing a love for wendy and lucy in different critics places. It just reminds me of the love for in america, and morton got a nomination out of that, so i say williams gets in over jolie. I personally liked changeling very much so i want it to get in somewhere. The other four nominees were all in top form, much like all the nominees two years ago when mirren won...leo was also very good so i wouldn't be shocked if she found her way in but i just have a hunch its williams.
Supporting Actor:
Brolin
Downey
Franco
Hoffman
Ledger
Replacements: Patel, Marsan
Vulneralbe: Franco, Downey
Wants: Ledger, Marsan, Franco, Irwin
I'm fairly confident with this lineup but only if they really like milk. If they don't then i can see a shocker here. If they like milk than franco will get in, if not anyone can get in. I would love to see marsan but life isn't that fair...so maybe feinnes could sneak in. But hopefully they will like milk and that lineup will be the lineup. Or better yet, they leave downey out and put franco and marsan in.
Supporting Actress
Adams
Cruz
Davis
Tomai
Winslet
Replacement: Henson
Vulnerable: Adams, Tomai
Wants: Winslet, Adams, Cruz, Dewitt
I'll have a better idea after i see button this week, i am starting to feel the same about henson as i am feeling for shannon in the actor catorgory, all hype and no love. If they love botton i can see her replacing tomai or adams. Moreso tomai. Maybe they will come to there senses and sit tomai and henson and pick dewitt.
Adapted Screenplay
Curious Case
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionare
Replacements: Dark Knight, The Reader
Vulnerable: Revolutionary Road, Doubt, Frost/Nixon
Wants: Frost Nixon, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionare
I really have no idea...i can see them leaving off doubt or frost/nixon....they will probably leave off revolutionary road though if they put the dark knight or the reader in. Again i have a feeling they put rev road in and leave the dark knight out.
Original Screenplay
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall E
Wrestler
Replacements: Happy Go Lucky, Gran Torino, Changeling, Visitor, Burn After Reading
Vulnerable: Rachel Getting Married, Wrestler, Wall E, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wants: Milk, Rachel Getting Married, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Changeling
I really have no idea with this one....i could get one right here and i wouldn't be shocked. I picked the films i think they will be passionate about, rachel getting married, the wrestler and wall e...and then woody...thats how i came about the five...they could easily go with the visitor or happy go lucky though...and if they go with burn after reading i'll be very dissappointed.
- Sonic Youth
- Tenured Laureate
- Posts: 8005
- Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 8:35 pm
- Location: USA
Predictions. * means winner.
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
*Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director
Woody Allen - Vicki Cristina Barcelona
*Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Chris Nolan - The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant - Milk
(No guts, no glory: Woody takes that "fifth slot". I'm wondering if support for it runs deeper than we realise. It had a far better precursor run than "Match Point" did.)
Best Lead Actor
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
*Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
(I'm vacillating between Penn and Rourke, but I'm thinking the momentum changed when Rourke thanked his yappy dogs --- No guts, no glory: no Eastwood, no way, no how... maybe.)
Best Lead Actress
*Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Meryl Streep - Doubt
(No guts, no glory: no Kate Winslet, and a significant internet sub-culture pulls a Jonestown.)
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey, Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
*Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - Doubt
*Penelope Cruz - Vicki Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Kate Winslet - The Reader
(Is not predicting Winslet for the win a NGNG move?)
Best Original Screenplay
*Milk
Vicki Cristina Barcelona
The Visitor
Wall-E
The Wrestler
(I'm so, so tempted to put Burn After Reading here as the ultimate in NGNG. Let's pretend I predicted it if it gets nommed, okay? Thanks.)
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
*Slumdog Millionaire
Edited By Sonic Youth on 1232368139
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
*Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director
Woody Allen - Vicki Cristina Barcelona
*Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Chris Nolan - The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant - Milk
(No guts, no glory: Woody takes that "fifth slot". I'm wondering if support for it runs deeper than we realise. It had a far better precursor run than "Match Point" did.)
Best Lead Actor
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
*Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
(I'm vacillating between Penn and Rourke, but I'm thinking the momentum changed when Rourke thanked his yappy dogs --- No guts, no glory: no Eastwood, no way, no how... maybe.)
Best Lead Actress
*Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Meryl Streep - Doubt
(No guts, no glory: no Kate Winslet, and a significant internet sub-culture pulls a Jonestown.)
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey, Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
*Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - Doubt
*Penelope Cruz - Vicki Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Kate Winslet - The Reader
(Is not predicting Winslet for the win a NGNG move?)
Best Original Screenplay
*Milk
Vicki Cristina Barcelona
The Visitor
Wall-E
The Wrestler
(I'm so, so tempted to put Burn After Reading here as the ultimate in NGNG. Let's pretend I predicted it if it gets nommed, okay? Thanks.)
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
*Slumdog Millionaire
Edited By Sonic Youth on 1232368139
"What the hell?"
Win Butler
Win Butler
- rolotomasi99
- Professor
- Posts: 2108
- Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:13 pm
- Location: n/a
- Contact:
barrybrooks8's long-shot predictions made me think about my own wtf possibilities. these are definitely the nominations you know are not going to happen but yet somehow still seem plausible.
--best picture--
synecdoche, new york
--director--
synecdoche, new york
--adapted screenplay--
paranoid park
--original screenplay--
tropic thunder
--actor--
robert downey - iron man
--actress--
michelle williams - wendy and lucy
--supporting actor--
brad pitt - burn after reading
--supporting actress--
misty upham - frozen river
--editing--
iron man
--cinematograph--
paranoid park
--set--
hellboy 2
--costume--
mamma mia
--score--
the happening
--sound--
tropic thunder
Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1232345816
--best picture--
synecdoche, new york
--director--
synecdoche, new york
--adapted screenplay--
paranoid park
--original screenplay--
tropic thunder
--actor--
robert downey - iron man
--actress--
michelle williams - wendy and lucy
--supporting actor--
brad pitt - burn after reading
--supporting actress--
misty upham - frozen river
--editing--
iron man
--cinematograph--
paranoid park
--set--
hellboy 2
--costume--
mamma mia
--score--
the happening
--sound--
tropic thunder
Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1232345816
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-
- Temp
- Posts: 463
- Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2008 1:34 pm
- Location: Milwaukee
Here are my final predictions before Thursday, with a long-ish shot for each category:
BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Longshot: Doubt
BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Longshot: Laurent Cantet, The Class
BEST ACTOR
Benicio Del Toro, Che
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Longshot: Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon
BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Longshot: Emma Thompson, Last Chance Harvey
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr, Tropic Thunder
Ralph Fiennes, The Reader
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Longshot: Emile Hirsch, Milk
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Longshot: Emma Thompson, Brideshead Revisited
BEST ANIMATED PICTURE
Bolt
Wall-E
Waltz with Bashir
Longshot: $9.99
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall-E
Longshot: Frozen River
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Longshot: The Class
BEST SCORE
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Longshot: Iron Man
BEST SONG
"Down to Earth," Wall-E
"Gran Torino," Gran Torino
"Jai Ho," Slumdog Millionaire
"Little Person," Synecdoche New York
"The Wrestler," The Wrestler
Longshot: "Right to Dream," Tennessee
BEST EDITING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Longshot: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Longshot: Doubt
BEST COSTUME
Brideshead Revisited
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
The Reader
Longshot: The Dark Knight
BEST MAKEUP
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Synecdoche, New York
Longshot: Tropic Thunder
BEST SOUND
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Longshot: The Wrestler
BEST SOUND EDITING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Mamma Mia!
Wall-E
Longshot: The Bank Job
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Iron Man
Journey to the Center of the Earth
Longshot: Australia
BEST FOREIGN FILM
Departures, Japan
The Necessities of Life, Canada
Revanche, Austria
Tear This Heart Out, Mexico
Three Monkeys, Turkey
Longshot: Der Baader Meinhof Komplex, Germany
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Blessed is the Match
Glass
I.O.U.S.A.
Man on Wire
They Killed Sister Dorothy
Longshot: The Betrayal
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Downstream
The Final Inch
Tongzhi in Love
Longshot: Viva La Causa
Am I crazy that I am leaving off Franco, Pitt, Jolie, and Jenkins? The 3/5 Picture-Director match-up? I also had a very hard time including Hawkins...my gut tells me she'll be left off the list in favor of Jolie or Scott-Thomas.
BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Longshot: Doubt
BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Longshot: Laurent Cantet, The Class
BEST ACTOR
Benicio Del Toro, Che
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Longshot: Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon
BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Longshot: Emma Thompson, Last Chance Harvey
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr, Tropic Thunder
Ralph Fiennes, The Reader
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Longshot: Emile Hirsch, Milk
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Longshot: Emma Thompson, Brideshead Revisited
BEST ANIMATED PICTURE
Bolt
Wall-E
Waltz with Bashir
Longshot: $9.99
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall-E
Longshot: Frozen River
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Longshot: The Class
BEST SCORE
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Longshot: Iron Man
BEST SONG
"Down to Earth," Wall-E
"Gran Torino," Gran Torino
"Jai Ho," Slumdog Millionaire
"Little Person," Synecdoche New York
"The Wrestler," The Wrestler
Longshot: "Right to Dream," Tennessee
BEST EDITING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Longshot: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Longshot: Doubt
BEST COSTUME
Brideshead Revisited
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
The Reader
Longshot: The Dark Knight
BEST MAKEUP
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Synecdoche, New York
Longshot: Tropic Thunder
BEST SOUND
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Longshot: The Wrestler
BEST SOUND EDITING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Mamma Mia!
Wall-E
Longshot: The Bank Job
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Iron Man
Journey to the Center of the Earth
Longshot: Australia
BEST FOREIGN FILM
Departures, Japan
The Necessities of Life, Canada
Revanche, Austria
Tear This Heart Out, Mexico
Three Monkeys, Turkey
Longshot: Der Baader Meinhof Komplex, Germany
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Blessed is the Match
Glass
I.O.U.S.A.
Man on Wire
They Killed Sister Dorothy
Longshot: The Betrayal
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Downstream
The Final Inch
Tongzhi in Love
Longshot: Viva La Causa
Am I crazy that I am leaving off Franco, Pitt, Jolie, and Jenkins? The 3/5 Picture-Director match-up? I also had a very hard time including Hawkins...my gut tells me she'll be left off the list in favor of Jolie or Scott-Thomas.
"Jesus! Look at my hands! Now really, I am too young for liver spots. Maybe I can merge them together into a tan."
- MovieWes
- Professor
- Posts: 2019
- Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:33 pm
- Location: San Antonio, Texas, USA
- Contact:
I don't know. She's a previous Oscar nominee and she's gotten some great reviews for her performance. I've heard her name mentioned as a possible surprise on TV. Plus, with Heath Ledger as this year's sentimental choice, she could get swept up in all the sentiment as well.Reza wrote:MovieWes wrote:Call me crazy, but I've got a hunch that this year's surprise nominee (like out of left field like Tommy Lee Jones was last year) is going to be a Best Actress nomination for Michelle Williams in Wendy and Lucy.
Don't you think Michelle Williams is TOO left field? Tommy Lee Jones has more of a name and was around for decades....and a previous Oscar winner to boot. In fact it would have been a crime if he hadn't been nominated for Elah. A greater performance than the over praised Day-Lewis last year.
Think Melissa Leo (Frozen River) instead.
"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)
-
- Temp
- Posts: 463
- Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2008 1:34 pm
- Location: Milwaukee
Random thought regarding Doubt:
If Doubt had not come out this year, would we all be predicting Meryl Streep for Mamma Mia instead. Despite the fact that I think she can do no wrong, she has become the person who gets nominated no matter what (Music of the Heart). Would she have nabbed a nod?
If Doubt had not come out this year, would we all be predicting Meryl Streep for Mamma Mia instead. Despite the fact that I think she can do no wrong, she has become the person who gets nominated no matter what (Music of the Heart). Would she have nabbed a nod?
"Jesus! Look at my hands! Now really, I am too young for liver spots. Maybe I can merge them together into a tan."