The possible 2 Kate Winslet nominations

[flipp525]

I'm sort of on the fence about Winslet's speeches, somewhere halfway between Magilla and Uri, I suppose. While I thought that she was genuinely moved, surprised, excited and bubblingly effusive in both speeches (certainly moreso in the latter), there was something a little, dare I even say it, off-putting and, well, ersatz about her that surprised me. I can't quite put my finger on it, but the "Gather" moments certainly didn't help matters. Having not seen either of her two films I can't say whether or not she would be a deserving winner in either category (personally I'm rooting for Hawkins and Davis in the lead and supporting categories, respectively), but something keeps telling me that, even though all signs point in a certain direction, this still might not be her year.

[Big Magilla]

As Winslet indicated in her acceptance speech for Revolutionary Road, it wasn't that she was acting in a Sam Mendes film but rather that he directed a Kate Winslet film her at her request in a property she has had the rights to for several years.

Also, I thought it very telling that she mentioned everyone connected with The Reader except Harvey Weinstein, And if you looked closely, her biggest fan/cheerer on seemed to be her big sister from Sense and Sensibility, that most genuinely self-effacing and witty of modern British actresses, Emma Thompson.

Her acceptance speeches seemed quite genuine to me. This is not someone who is used to winning, but sitting there and smiling nicely while someone else gets to make the acceptance speech so yes, she probably had her speeches prepared but had psyched herself into not expecting to have to make them.

[Uri]

Given her classy acceptance speeches at the Globes

Really? I felt there was something quite contrived about her. It was like a rather clichéd acting etude of an actress winning awards. I guess it's me being cultural biased. She came as – here I go again – someone who assimilated the most banal of American mannerisms, but without putting on the accent - the way she does very well on screen - it didn't look right. I've learned to expect British thespians to possess, well, not necessarily irony, but a kind of awareness, a constant hint of detachment. Method acting, on and off screen/stage was always at odds with the English manners. And it's not about being deeply emotional or not – Hawkins obviously was, but it was exactly her awareness of the surreal situation she was in that made her so genuine. I haven't seen RR yet, but I'm afraid there're enough reasons for me to suspect that it might be another Sam Mendes attempt at obsessively and too often self-importantly out-Americanizing the Americans (when will he make a film about his own country?), and it's a pity he has slightly infected his wife.

[flipp525]

I still think Streep will win lead actress in the end, but a double win for Winslet now looks more likely than a win for Hathaway. The wild card is Hawkins given their history for awarding new talent in either the lead or supporting actress category.

I don't think that anyone is really all that passionate about Streep's performance in Doubt. For that reason, my money's on a surprise Hawkins win. Poppy is the kind of character a lot of these actresses wish they could pull off, but know that few would be able to. A Mike Leigh nod in director and screenplay and a surprise Eddie Marsan supporting nomination would go a long way to support a win for her. Hathaway, I've never felt confident about in this category. A welcome-to-the-club type nomination, sure, but a win? Her thoroughly amateurish speech at the BFCA's must've only cemented this fact for a lot of voters.



Edited By flipp525 on 1231879332

[Penelope]

Her performance in Revolutionary Road is classic Winslet and that ain't bad, but her performance in The Reader is iconic. It's something a Dietrich or a Garbo would have been proud of. I can't see her fellow actors not awarding that performance so if she wins for only one, I think that will be that one.

I don't know about "iconic," but it's better than her performance in Revolutionary Road; her turn in The Reader is still among her five greatest performances (the other 4 being Heavenly Creatures, Sense & Sensibility, Titanic and Eternal Sunshine).



Edited By Penelope on 1231878877

[OscarGuy]

The Golden Globe speech will have little impact on the Oscar ballot. Polls for Nominations Balloting closed on Monday, meaning unless people were L.A.-local and waited until the last minute, a Sunday-night show won't have as much impact on Monday voting.

[Big Magilla]

It doesn't matter which category is counted first. If she gets more votes for The Reader in lead than she does for Revolutionary Road but gets more votes The Reader overall in support she will be nominated in support for that performance. If, as in this scenario, the next highest vote getter in lead is her performance in Revolutionary Road she will be nominated for that as well.

At this point I don't see how she can fail to be nominated for both performances. When I last commented on this, I said it was unlikely that a large number of people would vote for her in both categories, that she would likely be nominated in both categories with different people voting for the two performances. I'm no longer sure that's so. Given her classy acceptance speeches at the Globes and the lackluster competition it's entirely possible that lots of people will give her their top spot on the ballot in both categories. Whether enough of them will vote to give her both awards come February is still a bit of a stretch but not out of the realm of possibility.

Her performance in Revolutionary Road is classic Winslet and that ain't bad, but her performance in The Reader is iconic. It's something a Dietrich or a Garbo would have been proud of. I can't see her fellow actors not awarding that performance so if she wins for only one, I think that will be that one.

I still think Streep will win lead actress in the end, but a double win for Winslet now looks more likely than a win for Hathaway. The wild card is Hawkins given their history for awarding new talent in either the lead or supporting actress category.



Edited By Big Magilla on 1231878455

[Heksagon]

Do they really count lead first? In that case it should easier to get nominated in lead. Suppose for instance:

Lead Actress:
Streep 1000
Hathaway 900
Leo 800
Scott-Thomas 700
Winslet - The Reader 601
Winslet - Revolutionary Road 600

Supporting Actress:
Winslet - The Reader 2000
Davis 900
Adams 800
Cruz 700
Tomei 600
Henson 500

In this case, Winslet would get a single nomination, in lead, in spite of far more votes in supporting. Right?

[barrybrooks8]

It was explained to me like this once. Each category will be independently counted. Let's say it comes out like this:

ACTRESS:
Streep 1000
Hathaway 900
Leo 800
Winslet, Rev Road 700
Winslet, Reader 600
Scott-Thomas 500

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Davis 1000
Adams 900
Cruz 800
Winslet 700
Tomei 600

Winslet would get nominated in both, and Scott-Thomas would get in.

Now, if it looked like this:

ACTRESS
Streep 1000
Winslet, Reader 900
Hathaway 800
Leo 700
Winslet, Rev Road 600
Scott-Thomas 500

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Davis 1000
Tomei 900
Adams 800
Winslet, Reader 700
Cruz 600

Winslet would only get nominated in Lead, for The Reader.

[OscarGuy]

What will happen is this. The vote counters tabulate one category at a time. They will start with Best Picture and work their way around. They will do the lead categories first, if I remember correctly.

They separate the votes into piles based on all first-ranked mentions. Anyone with more than, I think, 21% of ballots will be automatically saved. If not, or even after that, they go to the pile with the smallest number of 1st place votes and re-sort that pile by second place votes and then keep working backwards until they have a candidate with 21% of ballots and set that stack aside. They keep doing this until all ballots are set in one of five piles. So, if Winslet happens to get the required number of votes for The Reader before she gets them for Revolutionary Road, I believe they would give her the nod in Best Actress for The Reader and then divvy up her Revolutionary Road ballots to other nominees. Thus, she'd be nominated lead for The Reader and would therefore be ineligible for Supporting Actress.

Someone who's more familiar with the process than I am can probably shed better light on it than I.

[rudeboy]

I honestly don't think it's an issue. Winslet's performance in The Reader has, it seems, been successfully pushed as supporting. Oscar voters have had no trouble voting for clearly lead roles in this category before, and with a second lead performance eligible and likely to be nominated, they'll have no problem listing her in support here too. She'll probably pick up a smattering of lead votes for The Reader, but not enough to deny her a supporting nomination.

[Cinemanolis]

I am curious about something. Lets assume that after the tabulating for the nominations phase the results turn out like this:

BEST ACTRESS
Meryl Streep 100
Anne Hathaway 100
Sally Hawkins 95
Winslet -RR 95
Winlset - The Reader 90

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cruz 100
Viola Davis 100
Amy Adams 90
Marisa Tomei 90
Winslet- Reader 80

My question is what is the first thing they do in the case of Kate Winslet - The Reader which shows up in both categories.

They could say that since Kate Winlset in the Best Actress category has 2 mentions, they'll go with her mention for 'Revolutionary Road' since for this movie she got more votes than for 'the Reader' in this particular category. So she will get a Best Actress nod for RR and then get a Supporting nod for 'the Reader'.

Or they could first decide in which category Kate Winslet for 'The Reader' will be competing on. In that case she has more votes in the Best Actress category (90) than in the Supporting Actress category. So they could decide that Kate Winlet for 'The Reader' will be competing in the Best Actress category where she has the most votes. Then since she would be a double nominee in Best Actress, they include her for 'Revolutionary Road', and only gets 1 nomination. (even though her performance in 'The Reader' was in the top5 of both categories)

Could the second version happen, or the voting system of the Academy Awards works in such a way that could prevent this? (which i realise has a very slim possibility in the first place). If i am not wrong the Academy counting 'works' with percentages for the top choices in the top5s. I suppose this could happen with percentages as well.



Edited By Cinemanolis on 1231843565