Golden Globe Award Nominations

[Mister Tee]

What REALLY took a hit today was 'WALL-E', which would have EASILY trumped the Comedic/Musical nominees and solidified its chance as a Best Picture contender if it wasn't shunted to the Animated Feature ghetto.

I'm under the impression that was 100% a classification matter -- that it wasn't eligible for comedy/musical. Am I wrong?

[Mister Tee]

Yeah, Sabin, I have to side with the crowd here and say 1) Kudos for predicting the Globers would pass on Dark Knight but 2) that doesn't translate to "they were never going to nominate it". It seems to me the Globes have almost always reflected the more populous (as opposed to critic-based) side of the Oscars, and this film could easily have fit their criteria. That they only slipped it in for the unavoidable Ledger nod is a surprise to me.

Which is not to say it can't recover and fly later on. It's almost certainly going to be a PGA nominee -- the group that went for Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone obviously loves money, and money plus critical approbation won't be denied. I also think the SAG ensemble nod is a decent bet, especially given the early deadline, which, let's not forget, led to early-year popcorn faves like Hairspray and American Gangster getting named last year. (Mostly off topic, I also think an already-in-video effort like Jenkins/The Visitor could score under this system, as opposed to late releasers like DiCaprio or Pitt)

The DGA might be the arbiter of how high Dark Knight is truly going to soar. Nolan was of course nominated there before, for Memento, but this is a totally different animal. It's a matter of whether directors see voting for it as more validation of commerce or hipsterism (or both, which might get it votes from both ends of the divided spectrum).



Edited By Mister Tee on 1229023313

[Sabin]

I don't NEED an excuse to discount the Globes. They're horrible, terrible star-fuckers.

It certainly hurts 'The Dark Knight' but not nearly as much as 'Milk'. The issue is that I wasn't expecting 'The Dark Knight' to make it in in a lineup with the likes of Stephen Daldry, Ron Howard, and Sam Mendes. These are all Capital-I Important films that all have the capacity to be left by the wayside once the other precursors start rolling in. The Director's and Producer's Guild will embrace 'The Dark Knight', maybe the Writer's Guild, and the Screen Actor's Guild is more likely to cite 'The Dark Knight', 'Frost/Nixon', 'Milk', and 'Slumdog Millionaire' and either 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button' or 'Doubt'. I still say that 'The Reader' and 'Revolutionary Road' are in some degree of trouble with all those guilds. 'The Dark Knight' and 'Milk' are not.

What REALLY took a hit today was 'WALL-E', which would have EASILY trumped the Comedic/Musical nominees and solidified its chance as a Best Picture contender if it wasn't shunted to the Animated Feature ghetto.



Edited By Sabin on 1229022225

[OscarGuy]

I think you're giving too much credit to a crowded field for this one. Sounds like you're looking for an excuse to discount the Globes.

While I still think it will get nominated in the end at this point, The Globe failure does push Dark Knight to the edge. You can claim that The Lord of the Rings films were a completely different animals, but I contend that they are a perfect example. I have read people here say that if LOTR can ignore the genre bias that exists in Hollywood, The Dark Knight can too. The LOTR films, which made slightly more than Dark Knight did at the foreign box office, were not the ideal star-fucking vehicles for the Golden Globes. It had only a handful of minorly-known stars in it but was bolstered by the critical support of the film despite its genre. It managed to transcend that bias and get nominated. Dark Knight, no matter how stiff competition was (and I don't really think it was that contentious as I don't think Revolutionary Road or The Reader were that much more of a they absolutely want to recognize them kind of pictures). The failure here is a bad omen. You may not want to recognize that and may try to ignore it, but you shouldn't.

SAG is unlikely to recognize it for ensemble, but could. I guarantee the PGA will nominate the film because they'll pick anything with a box office pulse. DGA, I think, is less likely to recognize Nolan than WGA is. WGA I could see nominating the film. I'm not saying it's chances are dead. None of us are (which seems to me the reason why you are so heavily flogging the idea). We just think that a Globe loss in the Best Picture category was a serious blow.

[Sabin]

Hell, they nominated Mamma Mia. Why not The Dark Knight?

Because that's a comedy. 'The Dark Knight' isn't and the field was too crowded. 'The Dark Knight' was never going to be nominated in this field. The Director's branch, the Producer's branch, and the Screen Actor's Guild will be FAR more kind.

[OscarGuy]

I think the real correlation there, MovieWes is Lord of the Rings, specifically Two Towers. Most expected the first and final film get nominated. Many were predicting Two Towers wouldn't make the final Best Picture cut because it was a bridge movie and had the least solid opening and least solid conclusion, making it not feel like a movie, which some thought would disqualify it. Yet, NBR, as with all the films, didn't include it in their list (The Dark Knight made it in, though), BFCA nominated it (as they did Dark Knight), It earned a Satellite nomination (same with Dark Knight), Golden Globes nominated (but they did nod Dark Knight). I'd say that given their track record, the Globes would have gone for it...they go for nearly every critically-lively worldwide box office phenom. Hell, they nominated Mamma Mia. Why not The Dark Knight? These guys are the biggest star fuckers in the world and they LOVE when lots of people tune into their shows. Yet, they didn't nominate the biggest blockbuster of the year...

[Sabin]

'The Lord of the Rings' is different. The others were comedies and animated films before the Animated Feature ghetto was erected. The Dramatic Feature lineup was crowded with prestige picks and if the crowded out 'Milk', what chance did 'The Dark Knight' have? These are Holocaust films, Nixon films, films with marriage problems, films that age backwards, films that rose from the ADORABLE ghettos of Mumbai to win it big on 'Who Wants to Be a Millionaire' and win that adorably anonymous ethnic fuck-stick that I assume has some form of personality in there somewhere.

'The Dark Knight' took a hit but it's fine.

[MovieWes]

I don't know, Sabin, if I agree with your assessment of The Dark Knight's Globe chances. Yeah, you were ultimately right in the end since it wasn't nominated, but this is the same organization that nominated Shrek for Best Picture - Musical/Comedy. They've also nominated The Incredibles, all three Lord of the Rings pictures, The Mask of Zorro, and Men in Black. I think that The Dark Knight's chances were as good as anyone's. Apparently, they were about as good as Milk's chances.

[Sabin]

No, it doesn't! 'The Dark Knight' was never going to be nominated by these people. Nolan still has a good shot at a DGA nod, the film at a PGA nod, and the film's ensemble could be nominated by SAG. I'd take its chances over 'The Reader''s any day.

[The Original BJ]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Please God, if you're really out there, please please please do not let Miley Cyrus become an Oscar nominee. That would be such an embarrassment.

What's really bizarre is that -- pardon me while I take the Song category and Disney movies too seriously -- while "I Thought I Lost You" is painful, Bolt actually has a song that WOULD be worthy of a nomination: Jenny Lewis's country ballad "Barking at the Moon," which is prominently featured during the film and appears again at the end of the picture.

But leave it to awards bodies to just nominate something slapped on the end credits if it's sung by two stars.

[FilmFan720]

I think Tom Cruise gave the years worst performance...shame on you HFPA for nominating him.

I think this makes The Dark Knight's battle much more uphill. People keep saying that Nolan could be an odd-man-out director nominee, but I don't know. I can see the director's branch not embracing him at all. The most common criticism of that movie, even from people who really liked it, is that the action sequences are confusing and amateurish...will the picky director's branch really honor that?

[Sabin]

The minute I saw 'Frost/Nixon', I put the score down. It's dramatic and aids its film immeasurably in creating suspense.

I'm erasing my original assessment ("This shit is fucking stupid.") and I've decided to more shrewdly state that it's hard to take a lesson seriously when the teacher is naked, running around, and shitting on the floor. I don't think these nominations mean anything.

Sad to say, 'Frost/Nixon' is probably in. It'll probably pick up the SAG Ensemble nomination and that should be enough to bolster its chances to survive either a DGA or PGA slight if one is to occur. 'Slumdog' is in, so this doesn't matter. 'Milk' is in (it WILL get a SAG Ensemble nod), so this doesn't matter. 'The Dark Knight' was never going to be nominated by these people. 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button' gets some help. 'Revolutionary Road' and 'The Reader' are still in serious trouble because nobody in America seems to like their films. And except for Sally Hawkins, nobody in a comedy this year has a shot at anything.

I am pleased to say that it appears that overseas they have decided as well that anything of interest in 'Sex and the City' has - like the women themselves - dried up forever.



Edited By Sabin on 1229017825

[flipp525]

Frank Langella is also looking more and more like this year's Helen Mirren as well.

Hardly. Helen Mirren took, if I recall correctly, every single Best Actress prescursor in existence except for one which went to Ellen Page for Hard Candy. She was a juggernaut. Langella simply cannot boast a similar track record. Has he even won a Best Actor precursor? I know he's been nominated and runner-up.



Edited By flipp525 on 1229018670

[Mister Tee]

What are the chances of "Changeling" or "happy Go Lucky" being released on DVD before the Oscars?

I'd guess "high" and "moderate" respectively.

Changeling's release schedule (when it arrived and when it left) was almost identical to Flags of Our Fathers, and that hit DVD a week or two before the Oscars.

Indies are generally slower to hit DVD. I'd say with an actress/screenplay/?director set of nods, Happy Go Lucky would be more likely to get a minor re-release -- at least in bigger cities -- than to hit home video prior to late Feb.

[OscarGuy]

I think MacLaine is almost a lock to win for Coco.