DGA Nominees

[OscarGuy]

The only thing that can be said for certain is that the Oscar winner will be one of these five people. There is no question. There is no hyperbole. There is just fact. Except in its first two years, the Academy Award winner for Best Director has been one of the Guild's five nominees.

Take out further '68, '72, '85, '95, '00 and '02 and the guild has predicted every Best Director winner with its own winner. But for right now, any prediction of a winner in this category would be abjectly wrong if it wasn't one of these five.

Nomination correlation is an entirely different matter. At least one of these directors will most likely not see an Oscar Nominations Morning. Only twice in the last 20 years has the DGA matched exactly the Oscar nominees. '98 and '05 were those years.

In those 20 years, exactly half the time, the nominees matched 4-for-5. The remaining 8 times it was a 3-for-5 connection. The most recent example of 3 is '06 and before that '01, so it wouldn't be inconceivable for two of these directors to get left off.

Boyle and Howard are virtually guaranteed slots. I know people are wondering why I'm including Howard, but he's been one of the names I've been fairly certain of for some time. I think Fincher is the person next most likely to keep his spot.

I could see both van Sant and Nolan getting left out, but with the auteur-leaning Academy seemingly at odds with the more populist DGA (how often is the guild more populist than the Academy?), I could see Nolan being left out before I could see van Sant getting knocked out.

For replacements, there is every likelihood that will be Mike Leigh. He's done it before and could do it again. But then again, the Directors Branch likes to go a bit out of the way for its surprise pick and that could very easily mean Jonathan Demme takes a spot. He's got a DGA award and an Oscar under his belt and he's got the indie flick under his belt that could put him into the ring. Of course, if two get left out, I could see it being both Leigh and Demme.

[MovieWes]

It's even more amazing that for the past six months or more, all the talk has been about The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, and Milk (and Slumdog Millionaire for the past three or four). And it's not as if Frost/Nixon came out of nowhere either, as its name has been tossed about alongside Doubt, The Reader, and Revolutionary Road.

[Zahveed]

It's amazing that a good chunk of our predictions have been these five guys the past two months.

[MovieWes]

With the PGA, DGA, and WGA trifecta, I think that The Dark Knight is all but locked up as one of the final 5 nominees.

[Mister Tee]

The five, as predicted:

Boyle
Fincher
Howard
Nolan
van Sant

I still say, with Wall E ineligible, not a dead-lock to match the best picture slate, but good news for all concerned.

And, truly, with the exception of Howard, a good day for auteurs. Remembering Trainspotting, seven/Fight Club/Zodiac, Memento, and Drugstore Cowboy/My Own Private Idaho -- that these men could be four of the five nominees at such an industry-stroking Guild is remarkable.