First Post-SAG Predictions

Sabin
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Post by Sabin »

critics agreed the film was gorgeous and expertly made, but they just did not connect with the characters and the story the way you should. this was supposed to be a romantic movie (or at least it is being sold that way in trailers), but i felt nothing for the central romance. i honestly did not care if benjamin and daisy got together.

Didn't you say you loved the movie? Isn't this the linchpin on the whole deal? I certainly agree with you but this is imperative to the film's success as a story.

to me, the real heart of the film is queenie. i can totally see why taraji henson is being nominated for such a small part. her scenes with benjamin as a baby and helping him grow up were the only time i connected with the movie emotionally. i would have preferred to have seen more of her raising him and helping him through the difficult process of growing up as an old man and a little child.

And she's barely in it, and when she is she is far broader than necessary. This is because Fincher knows nothing of intimate scope. There is no sense of discovery when she finds Benjamin or when she makes up her mind. She's curiously absent most of the time. What are we to make of her death when Benjamin - like the film itself - has moved forward, dry-faced? It wouldn't shock me to learn she wasn't nominated. Henson has been better in Hustle & Flow and even Smokin' Aces where she carves a more vibrant figure. She is woefully underused.
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

Mister Tee wrote:Again, I'm speaking from total ignorance, not having seen the films. But It's not unprecedented for a film thought too cool to win best picture, if it's elaborate enough. The Last Emperor would be one example; Out of Africa another (the second a film also thought to have had a weak central romance). Hell, alot of people even said it about The English Patient, as well.

hmm. see i think THE ENGLISH PATIENT and OUT OF AFRICA are sexy as hell...even though they are totally heterosexual. to me, one of the most romantic film images is robert redford washing meryl streep's hair with gorgeous africa in the background. also, i cared about meryl streep's character in OUT OF AFRICA, especially when she fends off a lion with a bullwhip. shit, you better respect her after that. i also cared about the characters in THE ENGLISH PATIENT.

i do agree with you about THE LAST EMPEROR, that movie is cold. if it were not bertolucci and just a stunning piece of cinema, then perhaps it would not have won. that year was light on large, cinematic films. the four other best picture nominees were two small comedies, a modest english war film, and a cheapie thriller. the problem is, unlike bertoclucci, pollack, and minghella, fincher is not exactly widely respected and loved by the academy. they cannot deny how well made the film is, but they may shock us with their complete indifference toward it for best picture.

i am not nailing the coffin shut or anything. if nominated, i still think it is SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE's biggest competition. i just wonder how many people are going to love it enough to put it at the top of their ballot for best picture rather than just at number two or three when nominees are being chosen.




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1230330820
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Post by Mister Tee »

Again, I'm speaking from total ignorance, not having seen the films. But It's not unprecedented for a film thought too cool to win best picture, if it's elaborate enough. The Last Emperor would be one example; Out of Africa another (the second a film also thought to have had a weak central romance). Hell, alot of people even said it about The English Patient, as well.
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

Sabin wrote:No, it'll be nominated. That's pretty clear. If nominated, I don't think that Roth's screenplay will be the worst nominated but only because it's just as problematic as Beaufoy's is simplistic. Frost/Nixon has some issues with its screenplay as well. I haven't seen Doubt, Revoutionary Road or The Reader but I already don't care for the front-runners for this prize.
it just seems the whole "cold" tag that has been placed on THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON is very similar to what was said about COLD MOUNTAIN. critics agreed the film was gorgeous and expertly made, but they just did not connect with the characters and the story the way you should. this was supposed to be a romantic movie (or at least it is being sold that way in trailers), but i felt nothing for the central romance. i honestly did not care if benjamin and daisy got together.

to me, the real heart of the film is queenie. i can totally see why taraji henson is being nominated for such a small part. her scenes with benjamin as a baby and helping him grow up were the only time i connected with the movie emotionally. i would have preferred to have seen more of her raising him and helping him through the difficult process of growing up as an old man and a little child. that part was far more interesting than him working on the tug boat or being a part of the war or daisy and benjamin's life together or his travels across the world after the baby is born. queenie was the only character i actually cared about.

i definitely admire the film's visual style, but i agree with those who say david fincher was the wrong director. maybe you need a spielberg or even ron howard to direct those kinds of movies. fincher was just to mechanical with the film, making sure all the pieces fit together. it is probably why he was so perfect as the director for ZODIAC.

i just wonder whether the emotional distance of the film will keep the academy from putting the film at the top of their ballots, which is what is required to be nominated. the only reason i think it will be nominated is just because it excels in the cinematic and technical categories, despite being lacking in the dramatic categories.
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Post by Sabin »

Oh, no. I think The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is in. I think it's going to get the most nominations of the year and some of the most of the decade. It could become an enormous hit. It may even win the Golden Globe for Best Dramatic Picture. But it doesn't have the same jolt of emotion and energy that Slumdog Millionaire does and that's a problem. You leave The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and you remember images without the inflection of memory. That's a problem.
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Post by Mister Tee »

You guys may be jumping the gun in being so dismissive of Benjamin Button. Have you seen the opening day numbers? Close to $12 million. That's nearly as much as Slumdog has made since opening (I know; uneven number of theatres). The point is, those reports from screenings months back may have been accurate: barring catastrophic word of mouth, this looks like a major hit. A movie that doesn't have a super hero or other truly exploitable elements and does that well usually has major impact at the Oscars.

I'm neutral on the outcome for now, because I haven't seen any of the late-year big items (Milk, Slumdog, Button or Revolutionary Road). But, a general observation: I can't recall a year where the critics were more divided. Critics for whom I have soem lingering respect have loved and dismissed both Button and Revolutionary Road. I wonder if the compression of seeing all these films in a short window of time (especially this year, where year-long disappointment has left everyone looking for The Big One in December), combined with the rush of awards voting/Globe & Guild nominations, has pushed critics more into warring camps than they would be had they seen these films at a more leisurely pace over months.
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Post by Sabin »

No, it'll be nominated. That's pretty clear. If nominated, I don't think that Roth's screenplay will be the worst nominated but only because it's just as problematic as Beaufoy's is simplistic. Frost/Nixon has some issues with its screenplay as well. I haven't seen Doubt, Revoutionary Road or The Reader but I already don't care for the front-runners for this prize.



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Post by rolotomasi99 »

Sabin wrote:I would not be shocked if Eric Roth's screenplay to The Curious Case of Benjamin Button failed to be nominated.
really?

i figure FROST/NIXON and SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE are locks in adapted.

then we have REVOLUTIONARY ROAD and THE READER as strong possibilities.

then maybe DOUBT is possible, and THE DARK KNIGHT is a longshot.

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON would certainly not be the worst screenplay nominated, but it was pretty lifeless.

do you think it might not get nominated for best picture sabin?

with set, costume, cinematography, editing, score, sound, make-up, fx, supporting actress as very strong nomination possibilities that would make the film tied with THEY SHOOT HORSES DON'T THEY as the most nominated film (9) without a best picture nomination.
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Post by Sabin »

I would not be shocked if Eric Roth's screenplay to The Curious Case of Benjamin Button failed to be nominated.

In addition, if it's really looking like Best Picture is going to the Curious Case of Slumjamin Buttonaire, then I really need Milk or The Dark Knight or (god willing) WALL-E to at least be nominated because as is I like the new Ron Howard movie a helluva lot more than the new Boyle or Fincher and that shit ain't right.
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Post by FilmFan720 »

Maybe more shades of Marcia Gay Harden?
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Post by anonymous1980 »

flipp525 wrote:
anonymous wrote:All of those you mentioned also got a SAG nomination. Hiam Abbass is a relative unknown with neither a SAG nod nor a major critics' prize in her name (so far at least) so an Oscar nomination would truly be a major shocker.

Shades of Shoreh Agdashloo.
She won NYFCC and LAFC. Abbass doesn't even have an Indie Spirit nomination.
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Post by flipp525 »

My "surprise" nominees:

Best Actor: Dustin Hoffman, Last Chance Harvey
Best Actress: Michelle Williams, Wendy and Lucy
Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Marsan, Happy-Go-Lucky
Best Supporting Actress: Samantha Morton, Synecdoche, New York




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Post by flipp525 »

Hustler wrote:
Precious Doll wrote:
flipp525 wrote:
Who's gonna be this year's Dennis Quaid?

Maybe Josh Brolin?

Brolin is kind of a lock in supporting.

That's the whole idea though. Dennis Quaid was a "lock in supporting" going into nomination day yet he was somehow left off the list.




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Post by Hustler »

Precious Doll wrote:
flipp525 wrote:
dreaMaker wrote:The Academy every year delivers some shocking add-ins and shocking snubs (or at least surprising), i can't wait to see them.. I hope it's going to be more interesting than our predictions...

Who's gonna be this year's Dennis Quaid?

Maybe Josh Brolin?
Brolin is kind of a lock in supporting.
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Post by flipp525 »

anonymous wrote:All of those you mentioned also got a SAG nomination. Hiam Abbass is a relative unknown with neither a SAG nod nor a major critics' prize in her name (so far at least) so an Oscar nomination would truly be a major shocker.
Shades of Shoreh Agdashloo.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
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