First Post-SAG Predictions

[Penelope]

Best Supporting Actor:

James Brolin – Milk

Definitely not happening. Josh Brolin, on the other hand... :p

Ooops! :p

[MovieWes]

Best Supporting Actor:

James Brolin – Milk

Definitely not happening. Josh Brolin, on the other hand... :p

[Penelope]

My first predictions of the season:

Best Picture:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Director:

Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
Jonathan Demme – Rachel Getting Married
David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant – Milk

Best Actor:

Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn – Milk
Brad Pitt – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler

Best Actress:

Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Melissa Leo – Frozen River
Kristen Scott Thomas – I’ve Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actor:

James Brolin – Milk
Robert Downey, Jr. – Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
Dev Patel – Slumdog Millionaire

Best Supporting Actress:

Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis – Doubt
Rosemarie DeWitt – Rachel Getting Married
Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler
Tilda Swinton – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

[MovieWes]

One can only wonder what the makeup branch has in store for us THIS year...

Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay perhaps? Or maybe The Love Guru? :p



Edited By MovieWes on 1230680079

[Okri]

I'm refusing to recognize that Downey Jr. is a legitimate contender until after the nominations. I might not even then. Even if he does get nominated, such is the strength of my obstinancy.

[The Original BJ]

Okay, well at least I only wade through the crap once it's actually nominated.

Though I did sit through Tropic Thunder, because Downey Jr.'s nomination seems all but inevitable. What a horrid movie.

One can only wonder what the makeup branch has in store for us THIS year...

[Mister Tee]

Okay, this is a way down-ballot/who cares? issue, but...

The other night, in my quest to catch up on crap that might be nominated for something, I got through The Other Boleyn Girl. Mostly a been there/done that snooze, which I was only watching because so many people mark it as a costume contender. And I found myself thinking, Good god, I've been looking at those costumes for almost 40 years now. How many times do I have to check out Henry VIII's array just to be up to date on the Oscars? (And this film offered a particularly desultory version; if there's such a thing as costumes that put you to sleep, these qualify)

A few nights later, I put myself through Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day -- a lame, sometimes excruciating effort only marginally redeemed by a few performers I like. Here, though, the costumes (and sets, even) were at least alive. Though one would hardly call them any breakthrough, they were far more fun to look at than those Tudor dirges.

So, just saying: if I had a vote, Pettigrew would top Boleyn any day. But I assume it'll go the other way.

[rolotomasi99]

i thought this article about new oscar voters was interesting.


New Oscar voters excited to receive ballots
Academy mailed 5,810 official ballots on Friday; there are 105 new voters
----------------------------------------------------------

BEVERLY HILLS, Calif. - The holidays may be winding down, but for Oscar fans, the season of celebration has just begun.

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences mailed 5,810 official Oscar nominations ballots to voting members Friday, and perhaps no one was more excited — or more daunted — to cast votes than its 105 newest members.

“It’s like ‘Wayne’s World.’ I’m not worthy,” said Doug Cooper, 35, who just joined the short films and feature animation branch. “Basically, it’s fear. You have to make a decision.”

Cinematographer Jonathan Brown said he and his industry pals have been doing their own Oscar polling for years — but this time, his vote really counts.

“The idea that now it matters is so cool,” he said. “We can, in a small way, have an influence in people getting recognized.”

New academy inductees were recently toasted at a private reception in Beverly Hills, where they mingled with fellow members and reflected on what it means to belong to Hollywood’s most exclusive club.

Producer Armyan Bernstein said he’s been preparing to cast Oscar votes since he was a child.

“My mom would get dressed up on Oscar night and make a special dinner,” he said. “The next day, we didn’t have to go to school. It was like a Jewish holiday.”

Academy President Sid Ganis welcomed the group and reminded them of their power as Oscar voters.

“Conscientiously wield that power,” he said. “Fill out ballots as thoughtfully as you can. This is your area of expertise.”

Each of the academy’s 15 branches is responsible for nominating those in their field — so actors nominate actors and sound engineers nominate sound engineers — based on the eligible films released that year. (There were 281 in 2008.) Oscar’s final winners are determined by the entire voting membership, regardless of what branch they claim.

“Don’t vote in any category in which (a) you haven’t seen all the nominated achievements, or (b) you don’t feel qualified to make a sophisticated critical judgment,” Ganis said. “Don’t vote if you haven’t got all the information. It’s the honorable thing to do.”

Membership in the academy is by invitation based on professional accomplishment. Academy members typically spend hours and hours watching the nominated films on DVD or in theaters before casting their final votes.

Helena Packer, a new member in the visual effects branch, said anxiety about the voting process began when she joined the academy.

“When a movie grabs you, you’re not thinking in critical terms,” she said. “This will require repeated viewing.”

But Jim Houston, a new member at large, said that as a filmmaker, he feels qualified to weigh in on others’ work.

“Once you start making movies, you have an internal critic going at all times,” said the 49-year-old, adding that he’s as interested in the academy’s science and technology council as he is in casting Oscar votes.

[rolotomasi99]

i thought this roundtable discussion between rahman, desplat, elfman, shore, and kaczmarek very fascinating. i recommend to anyone interested in hearing what the leading composers think about film music these days.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr....621de8e

[HarryGoldfarb]

I hate the fact that Wall-E, being the film it is, it's all the sudden being considered as another animated film and his qualities aren't highlighted as much as it deserves. It wouldn't be a big deal hadn't we had to suffer all the hype a few years ago about Rattatouile, Pixar's nadir that everyone considered some kind of milestone and a sure winner at oscar time...

Newman's score is addictive, so beatifully done, musically perfect, subtle, elegant, stylish, haunting and misterious. 2815 a.d is a little piece of art on its own right. "Wall-e" amd "Eve" are pieces of score that clearly underlined the character's motif. Define Dancing is such a beatiful theme... and I could go on and on...

[Sabin]

Yeah, this sounds like Academy music. I personally think that A.R Rahman is going to win because his Slumdog Millionaire theme is incredibly iconic and does so much of the film's heavy lifting.

I really hope that Thomas Newman is nominated for WALL-E. I'm rather resigned to the fact that The Dark Knight just isn't the kind of score they choose, but Howard and Zimmer will each be nominated for other work this year. Desplat is in for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and A.R. Rahman will win for Slumdog Millionaire. As he should.

[HarryGoldfarb]

the problem is, unlike bertoclucci, pollack, and minghella, fincher is not exactly widely respected and loved by the academy.

Fincher is arriving to the oscars with a better reputation than Minghella, at least he's by far better known among the industry. Minghella came virtually out of nowhere to win the award over Forman and Mike Leigh.

[rolotomasi99]

I'm listening to the Defiance score right now and I can't see it not being nominated. It may even win James Newton Howard his first Oscar... Or The Dark Knight may.

i have not had a chance to listen to the whole thing, but the following track is quite beautiful.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3ntWqHggvY

[jack]

I'm listening to the Defiance score right now and I can't see it not being nominated. It may even win James Newton Howard his first Oscar... Or The Dark Knight may.



Edited By jack on 1230344498

[rolotomasi99]

critics agreed the film was gorgeous and expertly made, but they just did not connect with the characters and the story the way you should. this was supposed to be a romantic movie (or at least it is being sold that way in trailers), but i felt nothing for the central romance. i honestly did not care if benjamin and daisy got together.

Didn't you say you loved the movie? Isn't this the linchpin on the whole deal? I certainly agree with you but this is imperative to the film's success as a story.

i admired it. about half-way through i just gave up caring about the characters and just admired the music, cinematography, fx, and costumes. i admired it the way i admire GONE WITH THE WIND or THE LAST EMPEROR. i can look at how well the film is made and acknowledge it took talent, but fincher was not right for this project when it came to giving the film a heart.

i still think fincher is a great director, but for this project he did not do everything a director should. it is more than making the film look good. the director must find the right tone for the film through the acting and screenplay and certain other touches.

it is very difficult to describe how the director accomplishes setting the tone of a film, but by the time the credits were rolling i felt like he had failed in that area. i was amazed at the movie's beauty but i felt like i never got to truly know or empathize with the characters.

i still think it could be nominated for best picture just due to the fact that it excelled in so many different categories, but in terms of people falling in love with the movie as a whole...i just wonder which type of academy voter that is.



Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1230340324