First Post-SAG Predictions

[Big Magilla]

I continue to be mystified by all the Tropic Thunder hate.

Well, OK, there's a lot to hate in it beginning with Jack Black, but Downey and yes, Cruise, are terrific.

On the other hand, I hated Borat to the core so maybe I'm just on a different wavelength.

[Eric]

After leaving Earth, real people apparently evolved into cartoon characters over the course of 700 years.

Real people are cartoons here and now, and WALL-E is the best movie I've seen all year (though fairly well shy of "masterpiece"/"great" designation).

[flipp525]

Okri, I was torn between Hawkins and Thomas; I opted for the latter only because I'm a fan. I could, and very likely will, be wrong.

What a travesty it'll be if Sally Hawkins does not receive a nomination for Happy-Go-Lucky. If Slumdog Millionaire is apparently the salve to an uncertain, dark and depressing state of the world (I'm seeing it tonight alongside The Wrestler), Hawkins' Poppy is most certainly some sort of companion -- a beacon of light; a model of how to live a happy life when everything else is conspiring to get you down.

[The Original BJ]

Anyone who sat through Norbit has no standing to mock anyone.

This is true, hahaha.

[Mister Tee]

Okay, well at least I only wade through the crap once it's actually nominated.

Though I did sit through Tropic Thunder, because Downey Jr.'s nomination seems all but inevitable. What a horrid movie.

Anyone who sat through Norbit has no standing to mock anyone.

I'm sorry to hear Tropic Thunder is that bad. It just arrived in my home via Netflix; I was hoping it would have redeeming value (i.e., a few decent laughs). Why this Downey boom?

Penelope/Eric, I began the season seeing, like you, Demme as the directorial substitute, but I've been troubled by the film's poor showing (Hathaway aside) in all the West Coast trial heats (Broadcasters, Globes). I wonder if he plays a lot better outside LA than he does in.

If Demme does get a nomination -- along with Lumet's script and, most devoutly wished, Dewitt in support -- Hathaway could become the resolution to the year's best actress riddle. Without that wide support, I think she's a long shot, but, with it, her profile (Hollywood child breaks through adult, a la Jodie Foster and Reese Witherspoon) might outweigh that of Winslet (whose film won't be particularly liked) and Streep (whose performance isn't universally liked, let alone loved).

[MovieWes]

I hate the fact that Wall-E, being the film it is, it's all the sudden being considered as another animated film

Well, it IS an animated film. If they wanted a better chance to compete in the Best Picture race, they should have made a real movie, not a cartoon.

Umm... have you seen Wall-E, Damien? It is a real movie. Fred Willard is the first actor to ever actually appear in a Pixar movie. After leaving Earth, real people apparently evolved into cartoon characters over the course of 700 years.

[barrybrooks8]

BEST PICTURE

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST DIRECTOR

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
Gus Van Sant, Milk

BEST ACTOR

Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

BEST ACTRESS

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Kristin Scott-Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr, Tropic Thunder
Ralph Fiennes, The Reader
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Kate Winslet, The Reader

BEST ANIMATED PICTURE

Bolt
Wall-E
Waltz with Bashir

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Wall-E

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST SCORE

Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

BEST SONG

"Down to Earth," Wall-E
"Gran Torino," Gran Torino
"Jai Ho," Slumdog Millionaire
"Little Person," Synecdoche New York
"The Wrestler," The Wrestler

BEST EDITING

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Revolutionary Road

BEST COSTUME

Brideshead Revisited
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
The Other Boleyn Girl

BEST MAKEUP

The Dark Knight
The Reader
Synecdoche, New York

BEST SOUND

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

BEST SOUND EDITING

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Mamma Mia!
Wall-E

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Iron Man
Journey to the Center of the Earth

BEST FOREIGN FILM

Captain Abu Raed, Jordan
Everlasting Moments, Sweden
No One's Son, Croatia
Tony Manero, Chile
Waltz with Bashir, Isreal

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Glass
I.O.U.S.A.
Man on Wire
They Killed Sister Dorothy
Trouble the Water

[FilmFan720]

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aaronofsky, The Wrestler
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
James Franco, Milk
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Syndechdoce, New York
Wall-E
The Wrestler

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

[Penelope]

Okri, I was torn between Hawkins and Thomas; I opted for the latter only because I'm a fan. I could, and very likely will, be wrong.

[Okri]

Penelope, why no Hawkins? I've seen that a couple times, but it's rare for the winner of both NY and LA not to go on to get a nod - I think it's happened twice since the beginning of the LA Film Critics.

If Nolan misses out on a DGA nod, I think I'll be ready to count the film completely out. Even if he gets it, I think it's far from a sure thing or even a solid bet. I think he's comfortably in for an oscar nomination, though.

[Zahveed]

I doubt most, if not any, animators are making films so they can be the next best picture contender since Beauty and the Beast. Live-action filmmakers are more likely to make films to contend for awards than animators are. So I think that could be the last thing on their mind.

[Damien]

I hate the fact that Wall-E, being the film it is, it's all the sudden being considered as another animated film

Well, it IS an animated film. If they wanted a better chance to compete in the Best Picture race, they should have made a real movie, not a cartoon.

[Penelope]

I assume that there will be at least one odd man out in the Picture/Director field, and imagine the likely beneficiary will be Demme, who's received his best notices in years, and the likely loser will be Ron Howard, since Frost/Nixon isn't exactly getting noticed as a "director's" film.

Likewise, although many sources indicate that Frost/Nixon is a sure bet for Best Picture, I think it's chances are about even with The Dark Knight, Milk and WALL-E; I just excluded the latter because of the Animated Film category, but I could be surprised.

I honestly can't imagine any viewer watching The Reader and not recognizing Winslet as Lead, although a couple of organizations have done that; I just think the Academy will decide to look elsewhere, especially given the film's lukewarm response (and, I must humbly admit, The Goddess's slightly skewed view of the film's central relationship may not help).

I haven't seen Frozen River (was it ever released outside of NY and LA?), so I'm only going on the near-unanimous praise she's received. Tilda Swinton is my real wild-card choice--even most of us here, despite our mixed responses to the film as whole, admit that she's undoubtedly one of the best elements of the film, and shines in a way that long-buzzed about Taraji P. Henson doesn't quite do (she tries, but the script lets her down, imho).



Edited By Penelope on 1230688478

[Eric]

i just did some idle predix today with a highligher and came up with a surprising number of similar wildcards as you, Pen ... predominately, I see a Demme director nod, a Melissa Leo nod/Angelina Jolie snub, and Kate Winslet only figuring into lead, not supporting. Of course, I think Frost/Nixon craps out and makes way for WALL•E, so I might be going a bit far.

[cam]

Those look pretty good, Penelope.