What about Michelle Williams?Precious Doll wrote:I'd rather see Hiam Abbass nominated in the best actress catergory for Lemon Tree (though I don't think it has been released in the US) but would settle for a supporting nod for The Visistor.
Another surprise nominee could be Misty Upham who co-stars with Melissa Leo in Frozen River - she's equally as good as Leo is.
First Post-SAG Predictions
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anonymous1980
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I don't think Richard Jenkins is a "sure thing". He has a good shot but I think Clint Eastwood might easily take his spot at the Oscars.barrybrooks8 wrote:I think a shocking nomination may come for Hiam Abbass for the Visitor. Jenkins seems to have a bit of backing, and his love interest may get to ride on the coat-tails of the lead that is for sure getting nominated, a la Rachel Griffiths, Ethan Hawke, and Catherine Keener (Hilary and Jackie, Training Day, Capote).
All of those you mentioned also got a SAG nomination. Hiam Abbass is a relative unknown with neither a SAG nod nor a major critics' prize in her name (so far at least) so an Oscar nomination would truly be a major shocker.
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Precious Doll
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I'd rather see Hiam Abbass nominated in the best actress catergory for Lemon Tree (though I don't think it has been released in the US) but would settle for a supporting nod for The Visistor.
Another surprise nominee could be Misty Upham who co-stars with Melissa Leo in Frozen River - she's equally as good as Leo is.
Another surprise nominee could be Misty Upham who co-stars with Melissa Leo in Frozen River - she's equally as good as Leo is.
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barrybrooks8
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I think a shocking nomination may come for Hiam Abbass for the Visitor. Jenkins seems to have a bit of backing, and his love interest may get to ride on the coat-tails of the lead that is for sure getting nominated, a la Rachel Griffiths, Ethan Hawke, and Catherine Keener (Hilary and Jackie, Training Day, Capote).
A surprising snub? Sally Hawkins, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Kate Winslet, or Gus Van Sant?
A surprising snub? Sally Hawkins, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Kate Winslet, or Gus Van Sant?
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Precious Doll
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Maybe Josh Brolin?flipp525 wrote:dreaMaker wrote:The Academy every year delivers some shocking add-ins and shocking snubs (or at least surprising), i can't wait to see them.. I hope it's going to be more interesting than our predictions...
Who's gonna be this year's Dennis Quaid?
"I want cement covering every blade of grass in this nation! Don't we taxpayers have a voice anymore?" Peggy Gravel (Mink Stole) in John Waters' Desperate Living (1977)
Who's gonna be this year's Dennis Quaid?dreaMaker wrote:The Academy every year delivers some shocking add-ins and shocking snubs (or at least surprising), i can't wait to see them.. I hope it's going to be more interesting than our predictions...
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rolotomasi99
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i know. i just cannot bring myself to include her. her exclusion is more wishful thinking than actual predicting.flipp525 wrote:No Penelope Cruz? She's a lock.
also, oscarguy i definitely think you should have FROST/NIXON down for editing. in general i was far more impressed with the movie than i expected to be, but i found the editing particularly surprising and fresh. plus the editing team of hanley and hill have done pretty well with a nomination for CINDERELLA MAN and A BEAUTIFUL MIND and a well deserved win for APOLLO 13. i think if the movie is going to be nominated for best picture, they are definitely going to earn an editing nomination.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
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rolotomasi99
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my post sag nominations. feel pretty confident about best picture, as do most people since i keep seeing the same lineup. the odd-man-out director is a puzzler for me. i chose REVOLUTIONARY ROAD just to be different. have a few choices in the acting category which are not impossible, but may go against conventional wisdom. the cinematic/tech categories are still mysterious, but these choices seem pretty good. we have to wait until january to hear from any more major guilds, and the critics are all over the place. it looks like we are stuck in a holding pattern until 2009. hope everyone has a happy holidays.
BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
DIRECTOR
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
ADAPTED
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
Revolutionary Road
ORIGINAL
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Synecdoche, New York
Wall-E
The Wrestler
L. ACTOR
Sean Penn - Milk
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
Leonardo Dicaprio - Revolutionary Road
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
L. ACTRESS
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
S. ACTOR
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Josh Brolin - Milk
James Franco - Milk
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road
S. ACTRESS
Kate Winslet - The Reader
Viola Davis - Doubt
Amy Adams - Doubt
Taraji Henson - The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
EDITING
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Australia
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Revolutionary Road
SET
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Valkyrie
COSTUME
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
The Other Boleyn Girl
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
SCORE
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
SOUND
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull
Wall-E
SOUND EDITING
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull
Wall-E
VISUAL EFFECTS
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Iron Man
The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull
MAKE-UP
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Hellboy 2
The Reader
Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1229744098
BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
DIRECTOR
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
ADAPTED
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
Revolutionary Road
ORIGINAL
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Synecdoche, New York
Wall-E
The Wrestler
L. ACTOR
Sean Penn - Milk
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
Leonardo Dicaprio - Revolutionary Road
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
L. ACTRESS
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
S. ACTOR
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Josh Brolin - Milk
James Franco - Milk
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road
S. ACTRESS
Kate Winslet - The Reader
Viola Davis - Doubt
Amy Adams - Doubt
Taraji Henson - The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
EDITING
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Australia
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Revolutionary Road
SET
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Valkyrie
COSTUME
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
The Other Boleyn Girl
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
SCORE
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
SOUND
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Defiance
The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull
Wall-E
SOUND EDITING
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull
Wall-E
VISUAL EFFECTS
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Iron Man
The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull
MAKE-UP
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Hellboy 2
The Reader
Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1229744098
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress are the most interesting races this year, mainly due to the Kate Winslet enigma.
If Winslet is only nominated for Best Actress, it will be probably for The Reader, and she will be a possible (though far from sure) winner. But if the Oscars follow the Globes and the SAG, Winslet will end up with her two nominations - and she's the kind of actress that the Academy won't want to send back home empty-handed. But where will they vote for her? Revolutionary Road doesnt seem to generally get much love, so the outcome of Best Actress will be really a mystery - and this despite any even strong precursor - till the Big Night itself (and Big Magilla is right, in the end the winner could even turn out to be, memorable performance or not, Meryl Streep, a bit a la Katharine Hepburn when she kept winning all those undeserved Oscars late in her career - because she was overdue, true, but also because, "in Doubt", voting for her was the safe choice to do). This would of course leave Kate Winslet very close to the Best Supporting trophy - which is the way in the past these double acting nominations used to be settled. But Penelope Cruz will be a tough rival (Viola Davis wouldnt have any chance in such a situation).
There is, of course, a third, not even too remote possibility - that Winslet is only nominated as Best Supporting Actress for The Reader. Which, I think, will lead to Cruz winning it.
If Winslet is only nominated for Best Actress, it will be probably for The Reader, and she will be a possible (though far from sure) winner. But if the Oscars follow the Globes and the SAG, Winslet will end up with her two nominations - and she's the kind of actress that the Academy won't want to send back home empty-handed. But where will they vote for her? Revolutionary Road doesnt seem to generally get much love, so the outcome of Best Actress will be really a mystery - and this despite any even strong precursor - till the Big Night itself (and Big Magilla is right, in the end the winner could even turn out to be, memorable performance or not, Meryl Streep, a bit a la Katharine Hepburn when she kept winning all those undeserved Oscars late in her career - because she was overdue, true, but also because, "in Doubt", voting for her was the safe choice to do). This would of course leave Kate Winslet very close to the Best Supporting trophy - which is the way in the past these double acting nominations used to be settled. But Penelope Cruz will be a tough rival (Viola Davis wouldnt have any chance in such a situation).
There is, of course, a third, not even too remote possibility - that Winslet is only nominated as Best Supporting Actress for The Reader. Which, I think, will lead to Cruz winning it.
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OscarGuy
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I think there are two big potentials to take over for Nolan whom I don't think will get nominated. Mike Leigh has upset before and he's got a crowd pleaser on his hands...but I really think it could be a surprise Jonathan Demme. He's been away for so long after his win for Silence of the Lambs that I think he could end up in the sentimental journeyman slot without a truly foreign director around to really pull the slot.
For Best Picture, I have not seen Curious Case, but will see it opening weekend with my friends who have shown an interest. Milk I have on screener and started watching it, but got pulled away so haven't had a chance to finish yet, so I will either watch it Sunday or over the Christmas break.
Of Slumdog, Dark Knight and Frost/Nixon, all of which I've seen, Slumdog is a clear favorite of the three. Frost/Nixon will go the way of the Queen and The Dark Knight's recognition would be a nomination. What I think the big difference between Slumdog and Benjamin Button is that I think this will be a critics/audience split with Button winning in the end.
It may have a rumored maudlin ending (who doesn't think that one or both of them is going to die?), it is the kind of film the Academy has shown a fondness for: a heavy visual tearjerker with solid visual effects and charismatic leads. I'd say it is more in line with winners like English Patient, Lord of the Rings and other epics including Titanic. And I'm almost positive it will be a huge box office hit, which will seal a victory.
Slumdog is so unlike any other pic to win Best Picture I really can't fathom the Academy going for it. It's biggest obstacle, the no-name cast(Irfan Kahn barely excluded), has dwindled as a drawback with the SAG nod, but does not go away. The Full Monty had a SAG ensemble nod as did Little Miss Sunshine, My Big Fat Greek Wedding and Chocolat. They each appealed to the same demographic of the Academy and the only difference between most of these and Slumdog (Sunshine shares it) is the critical support. Full Monty had some and so did Wedding, but genuinely these were crowd pleasers vying for the Oscars. In the end, they don't tend to win because there is another film, either romantic or topical that has more emotional and political weight that catches the Academy's eyes. I really think that's Benjamin Button.
For Best Picture, I have not seen Curious Case, but will see it opening weekend with my friends who have shown an interest. Milk I have on screener and started watching it, but got pulled away so haven't had a chance to finish yet, so I will either watch it Sunday or over the Christmas break.
Of Slumdog, Dark Knight and Frost/Nixon, all of which I've seen, Slumdog is a clear favorite of the three. Frost/Nixon will go the way of the Queen and The Dark Knight's recognition would be a nomination. What I think the big difference between Slumdog and Benjamin Button is that I think this will be a critics/audience split with Button winning in the end.
It may have a rumored maudlin ending (who doesn't think that one or both of them is going to die?), it is the kind of film the Academy has shown a fondness for: a heavy visual tearjerker with solid visual effects and charismatic leads. I'd say it is more in line with winners like English Patient, Lord of the Rings and other epics including Titanic. And I'm almost positive it will be a huge box office hit, which will seal a victory.
Slumdog is so unlike any other pic to win Best Picture I really can't fathom the Academy going for it. It's biggest obstacle, the no-name cast(Irfan Kahn barely excluded), has dwindled as a drawback with the SAG nod, but does not go away. The Full Monty had a SAG ensemble nod as did Little Miss Sunshine, My Big Fat Greek Wedding and Chocolat. They each appealed to the same demographic of the Academy and the only difference between most of these and Slumdog (Sunshine shares it) is the critical support. Full Monty had some and so did Wedding, but genuinely these were crowd pleasers vying for the Oscars. In the end, they don't tend to win because there is another film, either romantic or topical that has more emotional and political weight that catches the Academy's eyes. I really think that's Benjamin Button.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
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rolotomasi99
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no odd-man-out this year? i do find it hard to figure out which director might be dropped, and even more difficult to figure out who will be included.Big Magilla wrote:Best Director
Will mirror best picture nominations if they are as stated above. The win could be split, however, with Benamin Button taking best picture and Slumdog's popular Danny Boyle taking best director over Benjamin Button's disliked Fincher. If, however, Fincher wins this one, Benjamin Button is assured the best picture win.
if i had to pick the director to be dropped, i would say nolan. who would replace him is a mystery.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
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Big Magilla
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Lots of diversity this year, but as usual the pre-cursors tend to center around the same films leaving very little open for surprises on Oscar nomination morning.
Best Picture
Looks like a race between Slumdog Millioaire and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, with the latter winning unless it tanks at the box office which I don't think is going to hapen.
Frost/Nixon and Milk are almost certain to fill two of the other slots with The Dark Knight edging out the competition for the fifth one.
Best Actor
Sean Penn, MIckey Rourke and Frank Langella are almost certain nominees with Richard Jenkins having more support and thus more momemntum than Clint Eastwood for the old geezer slot. Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt will fight it out for the pretty boy slot. I'd say Leo, but I wouldn't want to bet on it. It will be a race to the finish line between Penn and Rourke.
Best Actress
The year's only real question mark. If Kate Winselt is nominated here for eiher Revolutionary Road or The Reader and not in support, she will probably be the safest bet. If, however, she is nomianted in both categories her chances for winning in the latter are probably stronger which means that Meryl Streep could very likely win this one, her first in 25 years.
Anne Hathaway is all but guaranteed a spot on the roster, with Melissa Leo, Kristin Scott Thomas, Sally Hawkins and ANgelina Jolie batling it out for the other two slots. At this point it's probably Leo and Hawkins.
Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger's to lose, with Josh Brolin, Robert Downey, Jr. and Philip Seymour Hoffman his likeliest competition. James Franco would seem to be the most likely fifth nominee.
Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz and Viola Davis for sure, Tarai P. Henson likely, with Amy Adams, Marisa Tomei and Winslet in contention for the other two slots. If Winselt is nominated in this category, she takes it, otherwsie it's an open field.
Best Director
Will mirror best picture nominations if they are as stated above. The win could be split, however, with Benamin Button taking best picture and Slumdog's popular Danny Boyle taking best director over Benjamin Button's disliked Fincher. If, however, Fincher wins this one, Benjamin Button is assured the best picture win.
Best Picture
Looks like a race between Slumdog Millioaire and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, with the latter winning unless it tanks at the box office which I don't think is going to hapen.
Frost/Nixon and Milk are almost certain to fill two of the other slots with The Dark Knight edging out the competition for the fifth one.
Best Actor
Sean Penn, MIckey Rourke and Frank Langella are almost certain nominees with Richard Jenkins having more support and thus more momemntum than Clint Eastwood for the old geezer slot. Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt will fight it out for the pretty boy slot. I'd say Leo, but I wouldn't want to bet on it. It will be a race to the finish line between Penn and Rourke.
Best Actress
The year's only real question mark. If Kate Winselt is nominated here for eiher Revolutionary Road or The Reader and not in support, she will probably be the safest bet. If, however, she is nomianted in both categories her chances for winning in the latter are probably stronger which means that Meryl Streep could very likely win this one, her first in 25 years.
Anne Hathaway is all but guaranteed a spot on the roster, with Melissa Leo, Kristin Scott Thomas, Sally Hawkins and ANgelina Jolie batling it out for the other two slots. At this point it's probably Leo and Hawkins.
Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger's to lose, with Josh Brolin, Robert Downey, Jr. and Philip Seymour Hoffman his likeliest competition. James Franco would seem to be the most likely fifth nominee.
Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz and Viola Davis for sure, Tarai P. Henson likely, with Amy Adams, Marisa Tomei and Winslet in contention for the other two slots. If Winselt is nominated in this category, she takes it, otherwsie it's an open field.
Best Director
Will mirror best picture nominations if they are as stated above. The win could be split, however, with Benamin Button taking best picture and Slumdog's popular Danny Boyle taking best director over Benjamin Button's disliked Fincher. If, however, Fincher wins this one, Benjamin Button is assured the best picture win.