First Post-SAG Predictions

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Mike Kelly
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Post by Mike Kelly »

Anyone seen Kate Winslet on Ricky Gervais's Show Extras? Here's a segment - it's a bit long and Winslet's scenes come in around the 4:30 mark. Great show, with each episode having a guest star lampooning his or her image.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Xoug4pGwys&feature=related
flipp525
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Post by flipp525 »

Okay, she officially wants it this year:

Winslet Dreams Of Oscar Win

Kate Winslet has her heart set on winning an Academy Award at this year's ceremony - because she is sick of missing out on the accolade.

The actress has been nominated three times for Best Actress and twice for Best Supporting Actress, but has yet to be handed the award.

But with nominations for the Oscars set to be announced later this month, Winslet is hopeful for a nod for her roles in The Reader or Revolutionary Road - and would be ecstatic if she walked away with the prize on the night.

She tells Britain's Reveal magazine, "I want to win, I'm not denying that. I don't want to be sitting there with a fixed grin on my face while someone else wins. But we all do that, don't we?"
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

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Post by mashari »

Hey guys, just saw the screener of Revolutionary Road tonight and I have to say that Leo, Kate and Michael Shannon were all very, very good and Kate's suffering housewife role will definitely appeal to voters, but IMO she's gonna still need to nab either the SAG or Drama Globe to emerge as a serious threat. I think than Anne has a pretty good shot for at least one of those, same for Meryl. Hopefully Leo can make it in too, but his chances are getting slimmer. The Wrestler is next on my list.



Edited By mashari on 1231228317
"The only thing I regret about my past is the length of it. If I had to live my life again, I'd make the same mistakes... only sooner."--Tallulah Bankhead
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Post by mashari »

I don't think voters will snub Jolie for second time in a row, especially in such a weak year. It would be too obvious and the fact that Clint directed it and the performance itself was very strong helps. I reckon that Melissa Leo will be this category's biggest snub-very under the radar.

I also don't think that many Oscar voters are just dying to award Kate Winslet this year as some of you all assume. If she goes lead for Rev Road, I don't see that film pushing her into the winner's circle and Penelope just about has BSA sewn up, with Davis as the dark horse. Meryl had a great year, but for some odd reason I'm thinking that her 'Prada' co-star, solid contender Hathaway, could pick up enough steam to edge everyone else out. We shall see.

Speaking of Clint, I do sincerely hope they don't award him over Penn, assuming the vet's nominated. He's got enough Oscar recognition already, geesh.




Edited By mashari on 1231200650
"The only thing I regret about my past is the length of it. If I had to live my life again, I'd make the same mistakes... only sooner."--Tallulah Bankhead
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Post by Big Magilla »

Penelope wrote:I still can't understand how anybody could watch The Reader and not conclude that Winslet is Lead. Oh, well.
It could be considered either lead or supporting. I think rain Bard and I laid it out as well as we could without giving away too much.

Had this film not been released at the same time as Revolutionary Road she probably would have been promoted as lead, but it did and so here we are.
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Post by Penelope »

flipp525 wrote:Michelle Williams in Wendy and Lucy seems like the kind of out-of-nowhere choice that just might happen. Are there some folks who might put her down as a #1 choice right alongside their Heath Ledger #1 in support?
Not to be ghoulish, but it would provide for a, um, memorable Oscar night: if nominated, she would be pretty much guaranteed to be there to accept for Ledger, should he win.
"...it is the weak who are cruel, and...gentleness is only to be expected from the strong." - Leo Reston

"Cruelty might be very human, and it might be cultural, but it's not acceptable." - Jodie Foster
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Post by flipp525 »

Penelope wrote:I haven't had a chance to see Happy Go Lucky yet, but it seems to me all this talk about Eddie Marsen has just emerged within the past few days; I think the love for Slumdog Millionaire will bring Dev Patel into a nomination before Marsen.

I still can't understand how anybody could watch The Reader and not conclude that Winslet is Lead. Oh, well.

I think Eddie Marsan deserves a spot in this line-up over both Patel and Brolin. He could very well be one of the "surprise" nominees come nomination morning.

Kate Winslet is not a lock in support. She has a good chance, but lock? That's a bit overstepping it.

Michelle Williams in Wendy and Lucy seems like the kind of out-of-nowhere choice that just might happen. Aren't there some Academy members who might put her down as a #1 choice right alongside their Heath Ledger #1 in support?

I've been saying this for awhile now, but Williams is, without a doubt, one of the best working actresses in Hollywood of any age. Her stature in the industry will only continue to grow. If she misses out here, look for even more awards attention to come her way for Shutter Island next year.




Edited By flipp525 on 1231186634
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
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Post by Penelope »

I haven't had a chance to see Happy Go Lucky yet, but it seems to me all this talk about Eddie Marsen has just emerged within the past few days; I think the love for Slumdog Millionaire will bring Dev Patel into a nomination before Marsen.

I still can't understand how anybody could watch The Reader and not conclude that Winslet is Lead. Oh, well.
"...it is the weak who are cruel, and...gentleness is only to be expected from the strong." - Leo Reston

"Cruelty might be very human, and it might be cultural, but it's not acceptable." - Jodie Foster
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Post by Sabin »

For the first time in a while, I have absolutely no idea who is going to be nominated in all four acting category. Each lineup has three sewn up and then another ten trying to get in:

BEST ACTOR LOCKS - Langella, Penn, Rourke.

The acclaim for Langella absolutely mystifies me as his impersonation is not successful and only at the end does he create a character, if still not Richard Nixon. I hope that Frost/Nixon looks like old news by Oscar morning and WALL-E elbows in, BUT...

In the running are Benicio Del Toro, Leonardo DiCaprio, Clint Eastwood, Ricahrd Jenkins, and Brad Pitt. Del Toro will have his fair share of No. 1 votes on the ballot and that could be enough. The twenty people who have seen it are very passionate about Che. DiCaprio seemed safe enough a month ago but now he seems to be running behind everybody else. I don't know if Revolutionary Road was just poorly marketed or if people just don't like it but he seems to be carrying the brunt of what doesn't work. I haven't seen it so I can't attest. Richard Jenkins seems to be bringing up the middle of the rung as somebody whom everybody loves with a performance that everybody seems to like...that came out a year ago...

Then there's Eastwood and Pitt whom I can't believe people are taking seriously. Pitt is a vacuous product of Special FX devoid of personality and he's picked up both Golden Globe and SAG nominations while Clint Eastwood is picking up last minute traction for a career best nomination despite no Globe or SAG nominations. How could he get in? He's never been nominated for the Golden Globe or the Screen Actor's Guild and received nominations under such circumstances and Gran Torino is fresher in people's minds than Revolutionary Road. That should be enough for him to overcome nay-sayers. But Pitt would seem to ride the bottom end of the ballot for his performance in a movie that not everybody likes and even those who do like don't seem to have much praise for his acting abilities. Is that enough for Del Toro's scant No. 1 votes to push him in? Or those bevy of actors who have worked with Jenkins in the past?

Best Guess? - Eastwood, Jenkins, Langella, Penn, Rourke


BEST ACTRESS LOCKS - Anne Hathaway, Meryl Streep, Kate Winslet

Kate Winslet is probably a lock in that she is an industry and Academy darling very much established ahead of the likes of Cate Blanchett, Sally Hawkins, Angelina Jolie, Melissa Leo, Kristen Scott Thomas, and even Michelle Williams whose film it seems has just not picked up enough traction but has passionate fans. Wendy and Lucy is a quiet movie with a beautiful performance but it might not be the year for it to break through (though she AND the film surely should). The same is true for Kristen Scott Thomas who seems to have peaked far too early and never really happened like she needs to. Melissa Leo on the other hand never really peaked in the first place and that could be just as bad. Her SAG nomination certainly helps but her film isn't yet out on DVD and won't be coming out for some time...but that doesn't matter in the age of screeners now does it?

On the other side of things are Cate Blanchett and Angelina Jolie. The latter is an actress who is very widely seen but not terribly respected in a film that is somewhat widely seen but not terribly liked in some circles. Those that do are apparently the more mature circles and those who do like the film are more likely to favor it than others this year, even locks like Rachel Getting Married or Revolutionary Road. That could help her. Blanchett on the other hand should have picked up some precursor traction if she was going to by now. Nobody really likes her bedside framing device but she certainly is luminous elsewhere, and she has to reconcile both in a movie that not everybody loves.

Somewhere in between those two is Sally Hawkins for Happy-Go-Lucky who failed to get a SAG nomination over Jolie and Leo as Blethyn and Staunton have in the past. Those who love the film will cite her above anything else but the field is so spread out that that might be enough. Ironically, I think that the two performers that voters will be most passionate about are Jolie and Hawkins whose chances I don't think are fantastic.

Best Guess? - Hathaway, Hawkins, Jolie, Streep, Winslet


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR LOCKS - Robert Downey, Jr., Philip Seymour Hoffman, Heath Ledger

Josh Brolin can't be considered a lock because he has to reconcile with so many other performances in that movie that are just as likely to pick up favor most specifically James Franco. He also plays the uncomfortable villain, the emotionally shifty one who is almost impossible to pity. Nobody can say an unkind word about Brolin and everybody concedes the year he is having is fantastic so that might be enough. What he has to contend with are performers that inspire more love: Marsan, Patel, and Shannon. Marsan and Shannon play unstable characters, the former in a movie that is not widely seen or loved but is as showy and as brilliant a true supporting actor as anyone this year. The third is an allegedly blistering glorified cameo that walks away with the movie almost undermining it. People have been talking about Shannon for months now but the movie's star is falling and his performance might be too short.

Then there's Dev Patel who is a lead, a subtle one at that, with those soulful eyes full of destiny. This is the hardest performance for me to gauge in that I see little by way of strong moments but affecting presence overall. Nobody knows who is he outside of his role and nobody really thinks he is supporting. This pushed Keisha Castle-Hughes into a lead nomination in a much weaker year that cannot happen this year. I certainly don't want him to be nominated but neither do I want to see Eastwood or Pitt. People love it along with Milk. I think the big snub of the year will quite likely be Brolin but I can't bring myself to leave him off the list just yet. They love Slumdog but only some love Happy-Go-Lucky and Hawkins but those who do will inevitably blown away by Marsan who is gaining visibility.

Best Guess? - Josh Brolin, Robert Downey, Jr., Philip Seymour Hoffman, Heath Ledger, Eddie Marsan


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS LOCKS - Viola Davis, Penelope Cruz, Kate Winslet

In the past five years, Russell Crowe, Paul Giamatti, Ryan Gosling, Angelina Jolie, Evan Rachel Wood, Ziyi Zhang all got Globe and SAG nods and failed Oscar nominations. The only supporting performer to befall the same fate was Maria Bello in A History of Violence. So despite the fact that nobody seems particularly impassioned about her performance, Amy Adams still have a very good chance in this category if beyond that then because there seems to be little consensus as to whom else should take her slot. The other contenders seem to be Rosemarie DeWitt, Taraji P. Henson, and Marisa Tomei. DeWitt is fantastic but her role eschews Oscar-worthy moments and 'Mad Men' partisans probably don't make a high enough constituency amongst Oscar voters.

That leaves Henson and Tomei, both Globe-less recipients of Screen Actor's Guild nominations. Henson is a wonderful actress on her way up trapped in a role devoid of Oscar-worthy moments and I'm fairly certain a close-up as well. From the looks of the trailer, I thought she was a sure thing. She has far more personality in Smokin' Aces. I'm seeing Marisa Tomei's film today but more than anything else I think Tomei stands a good chance of being nominated because she has developed a rather solid body of work as of late (as well as otherwise). Because I haven't seen the movie I can't attest to her scenes opposite Rourke but it's clearly Rourke's show. I'm guessing that because her visibility has risen considerably since her status as a punch-line and Seinfeld guest star, she should be able to secure her third career nomination.

Best Guess? - Amy Adams, Penelope Cruz, Viola Davis, Marisa Tomei, Kate Winslet



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Mike Kelly
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Post by Mike Kelly »

For some, the big hurdle may be getting nominated. After that, I think the voting dynamic changes. Other than Best Picture, the number of voters increases, there is more time to watch films a voter may have missed, precursors influence less and intangibles take over. Someone like Eastwood can go from a near miss for a nomination to a win due to those factors (directors votes, sentiment, etc.)
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Post by Penelope »

Mike: with the exception of Actress and Supporting Actress, I think the #1 films in these categories are the most likely winners; the close tally of the votes/points in the former categories indicates a greater competitiveness--right now, I suspect Hathaway and Davis will take those categories.
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"Cruelty might be very human, and it might be cultural, but it's not acceptable." - Jodie Foster
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Post by Mike Kelly »

With a tip of the hat to Sijmen's Experiment, here's my precursor tally as it stands before the guild awards. It is not exhaustive and I simply give 3 points to any win and 1 point to a nomination or runner-up award. There were 27 precursors used and were given equal weight (which may or may not be good, but I simply don't really know which of the ridiculous number of award groups correlate best with AMPAS nominations)

PICTURE
1. Slumdog Millionaire - 42 Points
2. WALL-E - 17
3. Milk - 16
4. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - 14
5. The Dark Knight - 14
6. Frost/Nixon - 9

DIRECTOR
1. Danny Boyle - 50 Points
2. Gus van Sant - 11
3. Christopher Nolan - 10
4. David Fincher - 9
5. Ron Howard - 8
6. Tie: Andrew Stanton and Mike Leigh - 6

ACTOR
1. Sean Penn - 44 Points
2. Mickey Rourke - 41
3. Frank Langella - 10
4. Richard Jenkins - 9
5. Clint Eastwood - 7
6. Brad Pitt - 4

ACTRESS
1. Sally Hawkins - 28 Points
2. Anne Hathaway - 27
3. Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road) - 13.5
4. Meryl Streep - 13
4. Melissa Leo - 13
6. Angelina Jolie - 8

SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Heath Ledger - 65 Points
2. Josh Brolin - 12
3. Robert Downey, Jr. - 10
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman - 6
4. Eddie Marsan - 6
4. Michael Shannon - 6

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Penelope Cruz - 27 Points
2. Marisa Tomei - 25
3. Viola Davis - 19
4. Rosemarie DeWitt - 16
5. Kate Winslet (The Reader) - 13.5 (7 Supporting, 6.5 Lead)
6. Taraji P. Henson - 7
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Post by Reza »

Damien wrote:
Reza wrote:
Damien wrote:I was at a party tonight at which there were three Academy members

What age group?

One early 50s, two early-mid 60s.
Well surely the Academy has more ''young'' members now and they will outvote the old geezers' choice of Eastwood?
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Post by Penelope »

Sabin wrote:Even over The Curious Case of Benjamin Button? I think that film is more Oscar-ly beautiful.
I don't. I think the heavy darkness, apparently needed to assist in the makeup effects, renders the film rather blah. Slumdog Millionaire and Revolutionary Road are far more impressive.
"...it is the weak who are cruel, and...gentleness is only to be expected from the strong." - Leo Reston

"Cruelty might be very human, and it might be cultural, but it's not acceptable." - Jodie Foster
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Post by Sabin »

Even over The Curious Case of Benjamin Button? I think that film is more Oscar-ly beautiful.
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