Predict! - Come on, it s not too early. :P

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MovieWes
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Post by MovieWes »

My first predictions of the year...

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Director
Darron Aronofsky- The Wrestler
Danny Boyle- Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan- The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant- Milk

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio- Revolutionary Road
Benicio del Toro- Che
Viggo Mortensen- The Road
Sean Penn- Milk
Mickey Rourke- The Wrestler

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Angelina Jolie- Changeling
Anne Hathaway- Rachel Getting Married
Keira Knightley- The Duchess
Kate Winslet- Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin- Milk
James Franco- Milk
Toby Jones- Frost/Nixon
Heath Ledger- The Dark Knight
John Malkovich- Changeling

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams- Doubt
Kathy Bates- Revolutionary Road
Penelope Cruz- Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis- Doubt
Amy Ryan- Changeling

Best Original Screenplay
Changeling
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
Wall-E
The Wrestler

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Che
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
The Road

Best Animated Feature
Kung Fu Panda
9
Wall-E

Best Film Editing
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Cinematography
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Revolutionary Road
The Road

Best Art Direction
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
The Reader
Revolutionary Road

Best Costume Design
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road
Valkyrie

Best Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army

Best Sound Mixing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
The Road
Wall-E

Best Sound Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Iron Man
Wall-E

Best Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Iron Man
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

ABC wants the Oscars moved to March

Claiming concern that the February 2009 transition to HD will leave many viewers in analogue limbo and staring at static on Oscar night, ABC wants to move the Oscars to March. Variety says:

The Oscars are set to be broadcast from the Kodak Theater on Sunday, Feb. 22 — just five days after the country’s much-ballyhooed transition to digital TV takes place…

That’s why, insiders confirm, the Alphabet web had been hoping to move the Academy Awards back into March, even though the awards season has been moving earlier and earlier in recent years. Next year’s Golden Globes, for example, are set to air Jan. 11 — the show’s earliest date yet.

Buried deeper in paragraph 5, the reason for ABC’s anxiety is better explained:

A one-time push of the Oscarcast into March would help ABC avoid any transition-related hiccup — and at the same time keep the kudos inside a sweeps month. Nielsen Media Research has already moved next February’s sweeps period to March in order to give stations time to iron out any digital transition problems.

Sure, ABC/Disney wants everybody to see WALL-E win Best Animated Feature, but mainly they want to keep their big event safely inside the adjusted sweeps month calendar


i found this on awardsdaily. even before this was posted though i was wondering what the fallout of last year's super low ratings was going to be.

i certainly have never thought the academy should nominate films based on their popular appeal and how that would translate in the ratings, but i have wondered if it ever effects the way some members vote.

i think it is unlikely most academy members choose their best picture nominees just to get people to watch the show, but if ever there were a year this might effect people's voting it could very well happen now.

this is also one of the few years i actually agree that two blockbuster films -- THE DARK KNIGHT and WALL-E -- actually would be worthy of best picture nominations. i am certainly not saying they are necessarily going to be in the top five best films of the year, but we all know best picture never reflects the best of a year.

to me best picture (as chosen by the academy) is more about the five films that best define the year in cinema. i certainly think THE DARK KNIGHT and WALL-E helped redefine (though not necessarily revolutionize) their genre. i think recognizing genuine pieces of commercially successful art (yes, i am calling these two movies art!) would not be outrageous or disrespectful. i think they would be far better choices than cinematically boring films like MICHAEL CLAYTON or JUNO.

most important of all, though, is the simple fact that if WALL-E and (even more so) THE DARK KNIGHT were nominated, the oscar telecast would probably break the record of the night TITANIC swept the oscars. since i do not think THE DARK KNIGHT or WALL-E would actually win, this would be good for the eventual winner -- hopefully MILK or CHANGELING.

winning best picture is always a financial boost to a film, but winning with that many people watching (even if they are rooting for another film) is even better.




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1221661735
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Post by Zahveed »

Well, I got my info from Wikipedia, so it could very well be faulty. It looks like a sure contender if it is released though.
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Post by OscarGuy »

If it does. Where are you getting your release data? IMDB lists it as February 2009. But that's about the same time as the Weinsteins have often released their animated films after limited runs, so it's possible.

But, you should be forewarned that it doesn't always work for them, so it may not work for Focus.
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Post by Zahveed »

OscarGuy wrote:Zahveed, Coraline is scheduled for a 2009 release.
It's limited in December, so as long as it opens in NYC/LA it'll be eligible, right?
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Post by Reza »

It is early....but here goes (and I'll be the first to say that this list is boring!):

2008

Best Picture
Australia
The Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Revolutionary Road

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Hugh Jackman, Australia
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Actress
Drew Barrymore, Grey Gardens
Anjelina Jolie, The Changeling
Nicole Kidman, Australia
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
James Franco, Milk
Emile Hirsch, Milk
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Jessica Lange, Grey Gardens

Best Director
Clint Eastwood, The Changeling
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Baz Lurhmann, Australia
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
Gus Van Sant, Milk




Edited By Reza on 1220894610
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Post by OscarGuy »

Zahveed, Coraline is scheduled for a 2009 release.
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Post by OscarGuy »

I think an animated nominee in Best Picture is a long way from fruition. With the Best Animated Feature category, the Academy's larger voting branches will likely see that as sufficient reward. Yes, we've had films compete in both Foreign Language Film and Best Picture, but they are also not as common.

It would be nice to see, but I think the Academy created the category in large part to give those films a chance at recognition when the larger body was clearly not willing to put it into the Big Boys Race.
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Post by Sabin »

I really hope you're correct about 'WALL*E'.
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Post by Zahveed »

Best Picture:
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Revolutionary Road
Wall-E

Best Director:
Clint Eastwood - Changeling
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Baz Lurmann - Australia
Sam Mendes - Revolutionary Road
Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight


Best Actor:
Josh Brolin - W
Leonardo DiCaprio - Revolutionary Road
Robert Downey Jr. - The Soloist
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Actress:
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Nicole Kidman - Australia
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - The Reader

Best Supporting Actor:
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Richard Dreyfuss - W
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
John Malcovich - Burn After Reading

Best Supporting Actress:
Elizabeth Banks - W
Cate Blanchett - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frances McDormand - Burn After Reading
Amy Ryan - Changeling
Tilda Swinton - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Animated Picture:
9
Coraline
Kung Fu Panda


Tons of tech noms for Wall-E and The Dark Knight
Best Original Song nom for "Rock Me Sexy Jesus" - Hamlet 2
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Post by flipp525 »

Here's a very, very early set of predictions.

Best Picture
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Milk

alt. Revolutionary Road

The Dark Knight seems like it might have the legs to appear in more than just one category in the top six. Hollywood congratulates a money-maker that happens to be a great film.

Best Director
Clint Eastwood, Changeling
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

alt. Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino

Which film will Eastwood be honored for? Or could it be both?

Best Actor
Benicio del Toro, Che
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langhella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

alt. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Synecnoche, New York

A murky category with some near certainties starting to take form (Langhella, Penn and Pitt seem to be at the top of the list)

Best Actress
Drew Barrymore, Grey Gardens
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

alt. Melissa Leo, Frozen River

La Streep versus Kate Winslet with a Hawkins/Barrymore spoiler.

Best Supporting Actor
James Franco, Milk
Emile Hirsch, Milk
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
John Malkovich, Changeling

alt. Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder

Ledger is the surest bet in a weak field.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Kathy Bates, Revolutionary Road
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

alt. Jessica Lange, Grey Gardens

Any of the Synecdoche, New York women could find their way onto this list.




Edited By flipp525 on 1220541316
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

flipp525 wrote:
rolotomasi99 wrote:S. ACTRESS

Amy Adams -- Changeling


Do you mean Amy Ryan?

I think The Curious Case of Benjamin Button has a better chance in Best Adapted Screenplay than, I don't know, Frost/Nixon, maybe.
thank you for the correction.

do you say "better chance" because THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON is going to be far superior to FROST/NIXON, or because you have the utmost confidence in the academy to realize that for themselves? i would think after all these years you would realize those are two entirely different things.
after all, just in the past few years the academy has nominated such screenplays as BORAT, FINDING NEVERLAND, SEABISCUIT, MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING, among many others; while ignoring screenplays like KINSEY, THE DOOR IN THE FLOOR, ABOUT SCHMIDT, REQUIEM FOR A DREAM, among many others.
i am against any nomination for a play that uses every word of its original script for the stage without changing a word for the screen. i have no idea how much was changed for the film version of FROST/NIXON, but i would guess far more adaptation occurred to bring THE CURIOUS LIFE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON to the screen.
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Post by flipp525 »

rolotomasi99 wrote:S. ACTRESS

Amy Adams -- Changeling


Do you mean Amy Ryan?

I think The Curious Case of Benjamin Button has a better chance in Best Adapted Screenplay than, I don't know, Frost/Nixon, maybe.




Edited By flipp525 on 1220245156
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

well, since labor day is usually considered the end of summer, i suppose the beginning of fall means it is not too early to make my first tentative predictions.
really interesting year. two strong popcorn films could actually muscle out many of the more oscar-bait flicks.
acting noms are always my weakest area (not that i feel strongly about any of these very early predix). the upcoming film festivals will help spotlight which films and performances we should be paying attention to.


BEST PICTURE

Changeling

The Dark Knight

Milk

Revolutionary Road

Wall-E

DIRECTOR

Changeling

Milk

The Reader

Revolutionary Road

The Road

ADAPTED

Blindness

Frost/Nixon

Revolutionary Road

The Reader

The Road

ORIGINAL

Burn After Reading

Changeling

Milk

Synecdoche, New York

Wall-E

L. ACTOR

Sean Penn -- Milk

Leonardo Dicaprio -- Revolutionary Road

Ralph Fiennes -- The Reader

Frank Langella -- Frost/Nixon

Josh Brolin -- W

L. ACTRESS

Kate Winslet -- Revolutionary Road

Meryl Streep -- Doubt

Julianne Moore -- Blindness

Angelina Jolie -- Changeling

Melissa Leo -- Frozen River

S. ACTOR

Richard Dreyfuss -- W

Heath Ledger -- The Dark Knight

Michael Sheen -- Frost/Nixon

John Malkovich -- Changeling

James Franco -- Milk

S. ACTRESS

Amy Ryan -- Changeling

Kate Winslet -- The Reader

Frances McDormand -- Burn After Reading

Emma Thompson -- Brideshead Revisited

Viola Davis -- Doubt

EDITING

Body Of Lies

The Dark Knight

Defiance

Milk

Revolutionary Road

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Australia

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Milk

Revolutionary Road

SET

Australia

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Reader

Revolutionary Road

Synecdoche, New York

COSTUME

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Duchess

The Other Boleyn Girl

Revolutionary Road

The Young Victoria

SCORE

Blindness

The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

The Reader

Revolutionary Road

Wall-E

SOUND

The Dark Knight

Defiance

Iron Man

The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull

Wall-E

SOUND EDITING

The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Iron Man

The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull

Wall-E

VISUAL EFFECTS

The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

Iron Man

The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull

MAKE-UP

The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

Hellboy 2

The Reader




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1220278176
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Post by Sabin »

I wrote for a small college publication called filmmonthly.com and in 2006, I saw a sneak preview of 'The Lives of Others' and placed it on my 2006 list. I placed it against on my 2007 when I realized that nobody really could have seen it so early in America besides critics. I'll be placing '4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days' on my 2008 list along with 'The Band's Visit' which no doubt is a 2007 film.
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