Observations on an Onrushing Race

[rolotomasi99]

i thought this rundown of the best picture race was a good cheat-sheet of what should be on our radar.


http://nymag.com/movies/features/52004/

[rain Bard]

It seems like a number of people are sort of thinking this year has a sort of 2005 vibe. But I don't see it. If Milk resonates like Brokeback Mountain did (and early reviews seem to indicate it might) I don't think there's anything on the radar that has the ability to play a Crash-like spoiler. I guess the logic is that the homophobia in the Academy runs so deeply that a gay-themed film will never win Best Picture? Call me naive, or locked into a November 2008 mindset that will have dissipated by Oscar time, but it seems to me like recent events have given Milk the inside track.

[Sabin]

'A Christmas Tale' is very quickly becoming IFC Films largest release in history so an Original Screenplay nomination is entirely possible considering that 'Rachel Getting Married' is viewed more as a Director's Film and there's always a screenwriting wild card. Arnaud Desplechin's films are like novels and that's very likely to appeal to the Writer's Branch.

I could see Jonathan Demme winning an award from the NYFCC's for Directing and potentially some acting awards, but I don't see 'Rachel Getting Married' crossing over as a picture. I think 'Slumdog' and 'Milk' will split the trophies. No idea what the National Society of Film Critics will go for this year. I am correct that '4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days' was in contention last year though, yes?

'Slumdog Millionaire' seems like a good bet for only four nominations whereas other films have a decent grab on more. Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay, and Best Film Editing. I think *that's* why most people are comparing it to 'Little Miss Sunshine' and 'Juno': because it doesn't have an innate grasp on more nominations. If it wins, 'Slumdog Millionaire' will be a Best Picture winner with one of the smallest tallies of nominations and wins. If it manages an acting nod or one for Sound Mixing, I think it's in. In a year where Barack Obama is our President, I think 'Slumdog Millionaire' might prove to be the perfect choice.



Edited By Sabin on 1226954155

[Sonic Youth]

Slumdog Millionaire... Little Miss Sunshine and Juno... a "little" independent film.

Guys, you know... it's been weeks since that media-created meme has been debunked.

Let's be leaders, not followers.

Questioned maybe, but not debunked.

If Slumdog wins one or two major precursors...the National Board of Review, the Golden Globe...the N.Y., L.A. or National Society of Film Critics even better...then it becomes a strong contender and good for Danny Boyle, good for Bollywood.. If, on the other hand, as may well happen, Milk wins most, if not all, the major precursors and goes into the Oscar race as the clear front-runner and something else, anything else, wins, then that film will forever suffer the stigma of the Crash win. If that happens, I would rather the winner be a Baz Luhrmann film than a Danny Boyle film. I want to see a Danny Boyle fiml win because people think it was the best of its year, not because they voted for it by default.

No, I edited your comments to highlight what I took issue to: the gotten-old Sunshine and Juno comparison, and the contention that it's a "little" independent film. It may be independent, sure, although who knows what's an independent company these days. But "little" it ain't. All accounts say it's sweeping and ambitious, if not grand.

Sometimes what makes a movie "little" in people's minds is "never heard of the cast".

[Big Magilla]

Slumdog Millionaire... Little Miss Sunshine and Juno... a "little" independent film.

Guys, you know... it's been weeks since that media-created meme has been debunked.

Let's be leaders, not followers.

Questioned maybe, but not debunked.

If Slumdog wins one or two major precursors...the National Board of Review, the Golden Globe...the N.Y., L.A. or National Society of Film Critics even better...then it becomes a strong contender and good for Danny Boyle, good for Bollywood.. If, on the other hand, as may well happen, Milk wins most, if not all, the major precursors and goes into the Oscar race as the clear front-runner and something else, anything else, wins, then that film will forever suffer the stigma of the Crash win. If that happens, I would rather the winner be a Baz Luhrmann film than a Danny Boyle film. I want to see a Danny Boyle fiml win because people think it was the best of its year, not because they voted for it by default.

[Mister Tee]

In the last decade, pretty much every Oscar-contending movie has been oversold. The combination of months-early festival screenings and internet gossip have created a situation where a film like, say, Benjamin Button, can go from being eagerly awaited to declared overrated to a backlash against the backlash...all before anyone with credibility has viewed or commented on the film. It's just the new normal.

I'd invoke BJ's bird-in-hand theory for Slumdog Millionaire: it's received mostly stellar reviews, audiences appear to love it, and it doesn't seem to be viewed as quite as trifling as Juno/Sunshine. It's probably not a critics' prize contender -- except maybe at NBR -- but there's no reason to thnk AMPAS will dismiss it from serious best picture consideration.

Obviously I'm in agreement with most, that the race centers on films that don't, upfront, interest me so much. But there's no reason there can't be a spirited contest in spite of that; absent overwhelming personal favorites, I root for the picture staying muddled as long as possible.

Okri, this obviously bleeds into areas of personal taste, but, yes, I'd say Rachel's critical profile is substantially inferior to that of United 93 and Pan's Labyrinth. I don't know how seriously you take Metacritic, but the former rates a 90 over there, and Pan rises to a spectacular 98. For comparison, Sideways was a 94, Brokeback Mountain an 87. Rachel is a perfectly good but not great 82 -- tied with Tell No One (to re-mount my hobby-horse), 2 points below Slumdog, and out of the year's top ten. The year's winner so far? (I swear I didn't know this ahead of time) Wall E, a 93. It's possible deep enthusiasm from critics like Gleiberman could push Rachel above the rest, but it's not comparable to those recent winners you cite.

Magilla, interesting angle on Frost/Nixon. I'd been leaning against it and toward Doubt, strictly for Ron Howard reasons, but on the other hand I'm not familiar with the play Frost/Nixon, where I know and am unenthusiastic about Doubt except as a performance vehicle. Also, multiple-Milk nods is a possibility I hadn't considered -- maybe because double-nominations have lately tended to cluster in supporting actress more often that supporting actor (Mystic River, The Departed and No Country for Old Men are just three recent major films that could have yielded additional supporting males but failed to).

Am I like most in pre-discounting Australia because 1) Luhrmann fails to float my boat and 2) the trailer makes it look like Far-er and Away-er? This might be a film to fear, given how it greases the long-estabished Academy prejudice Magilla mentions.



Edited By Mister Tee on 1226950610

[barrybrooks8]

I finally saw the trailer for Slumdog Millionaire in the theatre, and I'll have to admit, it brought tears to my eyes, the same way Millions did. I am extremely excited for it!

[Sonic Youth]

Yeah, it's stealing all of Benjamin Button's and Revolutionary Road's year-old press coverage.

[Eric]

Is Slumdog Millionaire already being oversold? I'm sick of hearing about it.

Oversold is the very definition of about 95% of Oscar nominees.

[Penelope]

Is Slumdog Millionaire already being oversold? I'm sick of hearing about it.

[Sonic Youth]

I have no evidence to back this up, and no analysis either. But I think this is Penn's year. It just feels like the right role at the right time, considering the political and cultural atmosphere. His reviews have been magnificent and it's a career departure for him. He won recently, but not really, five years isn't too recent. If AMPAS remains squeamish about rewarding "Milk" Best Picture, this would serve as a consolation prize, but it sounds like Penn is good enough to earn the Oscar on the basis of his performance rather than other "consolation" factors. There's no rational reason, just zetigeistism, stars aligning, like that.

Am I getting a 2000 vibe (Kevin Spacey's repeat win?) or a 2006 vibe (Philip Seymour Hoffman's gay celebrity performance?) or what?

[Sonic Youth]

Slumdog Millionaire... Little Miss Sunshine and Juno... a "little" independent film.

Guys, you know... it's been weeks since that media-created meme has been debunked.

Let's be leaders, not followers.



Edited By Sonic Youth on 1226932837

[Eric]

Slumdog Millionaire seems like a slam-dunk nominee, though like Little Miss Sunshine and Juno, the nomination may be deemed enough for such a "little" independent film.

You know, I was sort of thinking this year had a sort of 2004 vibe, where voters are likely to vote with the nominee that has the most emotional heft (Million Dollar Baby). Unless Benjamin Button turns out to have that in spades, I would not at all be surprised to see Slumdog emerge as the easy winner this year.

[Big Magilla]

Good analysis as usual, Tee. I, too, have never been so bored by an Oscar race, maybe because the Presidential race was so exciting this year, maybe because so many of this year's films are just so dull or dull sounding.

Taraji P. Henson has (had?) a staring role in TV's Boston Legal as one of the attorneys brought in last season. Though mostly wasted, she was one of the bright spots in a show that has become for me virtually unwatchable.

I had thought Benjamin Button would emerge Forrest Gump-like as the front-runner but leaks about Fincher having gone overboard to de-sentimentalize the story having the effect of draining the drama out of it and comments about its special effects being less than polished now make it seem like an also-ran at best. Pitt and Blanchett's characters reportedly don't have any emotional peaks, leaving Henson's adoptive mother the surest acting bet.

Slumdog Millionaire seems like a slam-dunk nominee, though like Little Miss Sunshine and Juno, the nomination may be deemed enough for such a "little" independent film.

Australia could grab a slew of nominations in by virtue of its technical expertise, and a win in the traditon of Out of Africa, The Last Emperor and The English Pateint is possible, but I dunno.

Frost/Nixon in this political year is more likely than Doubt to be the Broadway transfer that sneaks in.

I suspect the critical favorite will be Milk, buoyed by the proposition 8 debacle and it will go into the Oscar race with the most precursor wins behind it. It also has the potential of being the first film in some time to score three acting bods in one category, with Josh Brolin, James Franco and Emile Hirsch all possible supporting actor possibilities. The big question will be can it win or will the homophobes in the Academy pull a Crash and give it to something else instead? Stay tuned.

[Eric]

I have never been so completely and utterly bored by an Oscar race before

I was sort of thinking this year had a sort of 2003 vibe.

I almost want to say that Winslet might not be the only winner who will owe victory to a vacuum at the top.



Edited By Eric on 1226930822