Flimsier then Pan's Labyrinth or United 93? I'm genuinely curious because, like you (and everyone, it seems), I'm not sure which film the critics will "raise up" as the critics' fave, like Sideways, and I was thinking that Rachel Getting Married could fit the bill quite nicely (but I also love the movie).Mister Tee wrote:This falls under the category of handicapped-by-having-seen-the-film, but, though Rachel got some enthusiastic reviews, I think it'd be the flimsiest critics' award winner in many years.
Observations on an Onrushing Race
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The Original BJ
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I have never been so completely and utterly bored by an Oscar race before; I think it'll be tough to fill some categories this year, barring an unbelievably great slate of films this next month and half (not looking promising.) I could certainly see the critics making some protest votes this year -- I agree a WALL-E Best Picture citation seems possible (it certainly has more across-the-board acclaim than any other picture so far this year). Supporting Actor is another category in which I could see at least one critics group giving us this year's equivalent of Vera Farmiga '05; barring exciting candidates, and wanting to choose someone other than obvious-choice Ledger, they could go for someone REALLY out of the Oscar sphere.
A couple more scattered thoughts:
Rachel Getting Married might be flimsy by critics' winner standards...but I never would have thought American Splendor would have walked off with TWO major critics prizes. I wouldn't write Rachel off just yet.
A perfect storm seems to be gathering for Kate Winslet. After five previous nominations, plus two seemingly great roles this year, there's a good chance that, like Susan Sarandon '95, the "it's your turn now" element could push her over the edge, even with strong competition. That being said, I've seen Hathaway, Hawkins, and Jolie, and none of them strike me as being strong enough candidates to win. I'll be catching Thomas soon, but two French-language winners back to back doesn't really seem possible. And would cries for Streep to win a third trump sentiment for Winslet to win her first? (This of course, assumes Winslet's work will grab attention -- as Mister Tee said, were her film to tank, this might be a whole different ballgame.)
I hope everyone who played the "I'm not predicting Ledger for a nomination, there are a lot more performances coming down the pike" card this summer (and fall) now realizes that the bird-in-the-hand rule, more often than not, applies. When you've got widespread individual acclaim in a tremendously popular film, you're golden for a nomination, no matter how early you arrive in the year. More often than not, a lot more award-worthy performances DON'T appear; certainly this doesn't appear to be a strong slate this year, and no one has emerged to really threaten Ledger's front-runner status yet.
I have a hunch the nominated songs this year are going to come from a strange crop of films -- outside of the WALL-E song, have any really been pegged as possible contenders?
A couple more scattered thoughts:
Rachel Getting Married might be flimsy by critics' winner standards...but I never would have thought American Splendor would have walked off with TWO major critics prizes. I wouldn't write Rachel off just yet.
A perfect storm seems to be gathering for Kate Winslet. After five previous nominations, plus two seemingly great roles this year, there's a good chance that, like Susan Sarandon '95, the "it's your turn now" element could push her over the edge, even with strong competition. That being said, I've seen Hathaway, Hawkins, and Jolie, and none of them strike me as being strong enough candidates to win. I'll be catching Thomas soon, but two French-language winners back to back doesn't really seem possible. And would cries for Streep to win a third trump sentiment for Winslet to win her first? (This of course, assumes Winslet's work will grab attention -- as Mister Tee said, were her film to tank, this might be a whole different ballgame.)
I hope everyone who played the "I'm not predicting Ledger for a nomination, there are a lot more performances coming down the pike" card this summer (and fall) now realizes that the bird-in-the-hand rule, more often than not, applies. When you've got widespread individual acclaim in a tremendously popular film, you're golden for a nomination, no matter how early you arrive in the year. More often than not, a lot more award-worthy performances DON'T appear; certainly this doesn't appear to be a strong slate this year, and no one has emerged to really threaten Ledger's front-runner status yet.
I have a hunch the nominated songs this year are going to come from a strange crop of films -- outside of the WALL-E song, have any really been pegged as possible contenders?
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Eric
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I was sort of thinking this year had a sort of 1995 vibe (i.e. Babe slipping in as the National Society's pick in the absence of too many other viable candidates ... and because Las Vegas had already had its day in the previous crix awards).Mister Tee wrote:(I could even imagine something odd, like Wall E winning a major critics’ prize)
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Mister Tee
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Damn, I never know those eligibility technicalities. If you're right, scratch that (though I think it's one of the more absurd rules: voters essentailly aren't allowed to vote for movies because they're released in different countries in different years?)
This falls under the category of handicapped-by-having-seen-the-film, but, though Rachel got some enthusiastic reviews, I think it'd be the flimsiest critics' award winner in many years.
Oh, so that's who that actress is! (Should have run IMDB) She was memorable in Hustle.
I considered I've Loved You So Long for script, but thought the category was too crowded.
This falls under the category of handicapped-by-having-seen-the-film, but, though Rachel got some enthusiastic reviews, I think it'd be the flimsiest critics' award winner in many years.
Oh, so that's who that actress is! (Should have run IMDB) She was memorable in Hustle.
I considered I've Loved You So Long for script, but thought the category was too crowded.
what film strikes you as an obvious candidate for the NY Critics’ Award?
I dunno - I thought Rachel Getting Married was a strong candidate from that group.
Mister Tee, is EW pushing Taraji P. Henson? If so, she was in Hustle and Flow as well, and has been the blogosphere's choice for quite some time (Nathaniel over at The Film Experience has been flogging her, given the type of role).
Is Tell No One even eligible? According to imdb, it was released in Europe in November of 2006.
From the oscar website
Anyway, it looks like this year will be the first since 2005 that we'll get an entirely English language writer's line-up (and only the second time this decade). Maybe Let the Right One In can sneak in the thin adapted field, or I've Loved You for So Long (voters already have screeners) in original.
I dunno - I thought Rachel Getting Married was a strong candidate from that group.
Mister Tee, is EW pushing Taraji P. Henson? If so, she was in Hustle and Flow as well, and has been the blogosphere's choice for quite some time (Nathaniel over at The Film Experience has been flogging her, given the type of role).
Is Tell No One even eligible? According to imdb, it was released in Europe in November of 2006.
From the oscar website
A picture first theatrically exhibited outside the U.S. prior to the Los Angeles qualifying run shall be eligible for submission provided the prior exhibition takes place in a commercial motion picture theater after January 1, 2007, with the following further conditions:
Anyway, it looks like this year will be the first since 2005 that we'll get an entirely English language writer's line-up (and only the second time this decade). Maybe Let the Right One In can sneak in the thin adapted field, or I've Loved You for So Long (voters already have screeners) in original.
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Mister Tee
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Election-obsession has kept me from commenting much on the progress of this year’s Oscar race. Now, of course, we’re scant weeks from kick-off, so a few thoughts – though, because personal circumstance has kept me from seeing many films this year, most of this is based on osmosis-through-reading rather than first-hand experience.
The first thing to note about the best picture race is how narrow its range is. There’ve been two big commercial Hollywood vehicles (Wall E and The Dark Knight) that received substantially more acclaim than the average summer blockbuster, and that puts them both in the conversation…but not as much more than minor possibilities. We had a decent yield of festival sleepers – Rachel Getting Married, The Wrestler, Slumdog Millionaire – that expanded the field slightly…but mostly in acting categories; only the latter is viewed as prime best picture material. Beyond that, we’re reduced to the same batch of big boppers we’ve had in view for six months: Milk, Australia, Doubt, Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Gran Torino, The Reader and Revolutionary Road. It’s unusual in my experience for an Oscar year to evolve without major curves – to have reached this stage and still be relying on those same few big-ticket items. It’s almost as if Hollywood, like everyone else, was so wrapped up in the election they didn’t have energy left over to spring surprises.
A corollary observation: seems to me we’re about to the point where we’re unlikely to see a breakout critics’ favorite. Not to say one of the unseen might not turn out to be quite good, and something has to win year end prizes -- but put it this way: what film strikes you as an obvious candidate for the NY Critics’ Award? Given uninspired source material/genres or, in some cases, directors (Howard, Daldry) it’s hard to imagine any of these late arrivals emerging with the consensus critical enthusiasm given, in recent years, to Far from Heaven, No Country for Old Men or Brokeback Mountain. I’d love to be proven wrong, but it just doesn’t seem there’s a huge artistic breakthrough on this year’s horizon. (I could even imagine something odd, like Wall E winning a major critics’ prize) What we’ll mostly have, it appears, are films in durable genres – biopic (Milk), generation-spanning epic (Australia), social-conscious uplift (Slumdog Millionaire), middle-class critique (Revolutionary Road) – hopefully given distinction by auteurist directors…and then some respectable actors’ vehicles – Doubt, Frost/Nixon, The Reader. Oh, and Gran Torino, from which I frankly have no idea what to expect…though it is getting a bit tiresome to have to rely on Eastwood to bail us out year after year.
Anyway, as I see it: Slumdog, which had a big (limited) opening weekend, should make the list easily. The trade reviews had already inclined me to see Milk as likely, and I think the backwash of Prop 8 will make it a sure thing (and possibly put van Sant in position to continue the trend I noted earlier this year, of directors with previous nominations winning the directing Oscar). One of Doubt or Frost/Nixon will probably fill the actors’ movie slot; I doubt both can make it. And then it’s a matter of which of those last mystery guests will win over the critics and public. Benjamin Button and Revolutionary Road seem to be the betting favorites, but exposure to real world reviews could change that calculus in a blink. Oh, and, as you may have heard, Oprah is rhapsodizing over Australia. Now that she’s picked a president, isn’t influencing the Oscars kind of small potatoes for her?
This appears to be the rare recent year where both lead acting races are well-populated – the first time, to my view, since 2002. There’s near-universal agreement that Sean Penn, Mickey Rourke and Frank Langella – all already screened -- are set to compete for the male trophy. Other more iffy possibilities are the to-come DiCaprio, Pitt, Jackman and Eastwood (also maybe Will Smith, though it’s hard to see him lucking out like that twice in three years), and the already-out-there/maybe-too-small/but-mostly admired Richard Jenkins for The Visitor. Also, Dustin Hoffman is being promoted for a twee-sounding Last Chance Harvey, and you can’t overlook the possibility of a sentimental campaign getting him nominated. (Weird, an actor associated with groundbreaking films in the 60s/70s being pushed for such a nod; I guess we all become old-hat eventually)
It’s a familiar refrain in the best actress category: lots of solid candidates – Melissa Leo, Sally Hawkins, Kristen Scott-Thomas – in movies that may not have been seen by enough people. Anne Hathaway’s film is no world-beater, either, but it’s done enough business she’s almost sure to qualify. The most widely-seen of the in-release possibilities, Angelina Jolie, is actually the one with the least enthusiasm behind her. Any of these mentioned could make it to the final five – I’m betting most heavily on Hathaway and (pending a critics’ prize) Scott-Thomas – but most of the avid hopes are with the ladies still to come: Streep in Doubt, Kidman in Australia, Blanchett in Benjamin Button, and, the rooting choice of seemingly half the blogosphere, Winslet in Revolutionary Road. If that performance turns out a dud, the race will be thrown wide open.
Best supporting actor seems like the thinnest competition right now, which only increases the likelihood Heath Ledger will win by acclamation. Certainly his performance is the going-in favorite, with at least for the moment no major candidates to rival him. (Unless you go along with EW’s Robert Downey Jr. campaign. Not having seen Tropic Thunder, I can’t judge, but it strikes me as a wildly out-there pick) Of course, others will emerge: likely, someone from Milk will slip in – maybe Josh Brolin, in homage to his recent successful run. Philip Seymour Hoffman is apparently being quite seriously promoted as supporting in Doubt, and, given the role, he’d have an excellent shot at nomination. And everyone I know who’s read Revolutionary Road tells me the Michael Shannon character is very likely to get consideration. But that’s about all I see. Maybe Bill Irwin, unlikely in most years, will take advantage of the landscape and sneak in. Maybe Michael Sheen will decide to push for supporting after all. In any case, it’s odd to be this close to the end of the year and still see so few major possibilities for the category.
Penelope Cruz, we can say with some assurance, will get her second nomination for Vicky Christina. By all advance reviews, Viola Davis will stand alongside her, which doesn’t surprise me a whit, given that 1) the role onstage was a standout and 2) Davis is a whale of an actress. I also think general affection for Rachel Getting Married will put Rosemary DeWitt onto the slate; Debra Winger is a far more shaky proposition. Beyond that, it’s what buzz you believe. Marisa Tomei apparently will have a chance to extend her winner’s-redemption tour for The Wrestler. Amy Adams could bring an additional nod for Doubt. EW is pushing an actress of whom I’ve never heard for Benjamin Button; I’ll need more empirical evidence before I buy into that. And two big names – Kathy Bates/Revolutionary Road and Kate Winslet again/The Reader – are getting some buzz. I have a long-standing aversion to major stars lusting after second-tier Oscars, so I hope Winslet doesn’t go this route…but no one’s listened to me on this score in the past.
Best director will as usual mostly mirror best picture, which offers the chance of a real auteurists’ line-up – Fincher, Boyle, van Sant. Of people likely to compete for solitary director…early on I was going to say Mike Leigh, but Happy Go Lucky has performed disappointingly, so my two strongest picks would be Demme and Aronofsky.
In original screenplay, I chalk up the obligatory Woody Allen nomination for Vicky Christina, and the any-good-Pixar nod for Wall E (though the latter is more a director’s than writer’s movie). Mike Leigh could well extend his string in this category for Happy Go Lucky. And, though I think the script is Rachel Getting Married’s weakest element, I have little doubt Jenny Lumet is a strong contender. This nearly-full slate could, of course, be upset by latecomers. I’m never certain how scripts are classified – Milk, though obviously based on sources, seems to have been put on this side of the aisle, and I have no inside info about Australia or Gran Torino. But, all of them, and I believe The Wrestler, could get into the mix.
The adaptation side is a bit thinner, but as usual holds a ton of heavyweights: Benjamin Button, Revolutionary Road, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, The Reader and Slumdog Millionaire all reside here. Some variation of these will dominate the nomination slate, but we should never overlook the possibility of a smaller/foreign film taking a slot (a la Away from Her, The Motorcycle Diaries, About a Boy, City of God). I may be alone in advocating this, but I say don’t overlook Tell No One.
It’s silly to even speculate about the techs until we see the big ticket year-end films.
The first thing to note about the best picture race is how narrow its range is. There’ve been two big commercial Hollywood vehicles (Wall E and The Dark Knight) that received substantially more acclaim than the average summer blockbuster, and that puts them both in the conversation…but not as much more than minor possibilities. We had a decent yield of festival sleepers – Rachel Getting Married, The Wrestler, Slumdog Millionaire – that expanded the field slightly…but mostly in acting categories; only the latter is viewed as prime best picture material. Beyond that, we’re reduced to the same batch of big boppers we’ve had in view for six months: Milk, Australia, Doubt, Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Gran Torino, The Reader and Revolutionary Road. It’s unusual in my experience for an Oscar year to evolve without major curves – to have reached this stage and still be relying on those same few big-ticket items. It’s almost as if Hollywood, like everyone else, was so wrapped up in the election they didn’t have energy left over to spring surprises.
A corollary observation: seems to me we’re about to the point where we’re unlikely to see a breakout critics’ favorite. Not to say one of the unseen might not turn out to be quite good, and something has to win year end prizes -- but put it this way: what film strikes you as an obvious candidate for the NY Critics’ Award? Given uninspired source material/genres or, in some cases, directors (Howard, Daldry) it’s hard to imagine any of these late arrivals emerging with the consensus critical enthusiasm given, in recent years, to Far from Heaven, No Country for Old Men or Brokeback Mountain. I’d love to be proven wrong, but it just doesn’t seem there’s a huge artistic breakthrough on this year’s horizon. (I could even imagine something odd, like Wall E winning a major critics’ prize) What we’ll mostly have, it appears, are films in durable genres – biopic (Milk), generation-spanning epic (Australia), social-conscious uplift (Slumdog Millionaire), middle-class critique (Revolutionary Road) – hopefully given distinction by auteurist directors…and then some respectable actors’ vehicles – Doubt, Frost/Nixon, The Reader. Oh, and Gran Torino, from which I frankly have no idea what to expect…though it is getting a bit tiresome to have to rely on Eastwood to bail us out year after year.
Anyway, as I see it: Slumdog, which had a big (limited) opening weekend, should make the list easily. The trade reviews had already inclined me to see Milk as likely, and I think the backwash of Prop 8 will make it a sure thing (and possibly put van Sant in position to continue the trend I noted earlier this year, of directors with previous nominations winning the directing Oscar). One of Doubt or Frost/Nixon will probably fill the actors’ movie slot; I doubt both can make it. And then it’s a matter of which of those last mystery guests will win over the critics and public. Benjamin Button and Revolutionary Road seem to be the betting favorites, but exposure to real world reviews could change that calculus in a blink. Oh, and, as you may have heard, Oprah is rhapsodizing over Australia. Now that she’s picked a president, isn’t influencing the Oscars kind of small potatoes for her?
This appears to be the rare recent year where both lead acting races are well-populated – the first time, to my view, since 2002. There’s near-universal agreement that Sean Penn, Mickey Rourke and Frank Langella – all already screened -- are set to compete for the male trophy. Other more iffy possibilities are the to-come DiCaprio, Pitt, Jackman and Eastwood (also maybe Will Smith, though it’s hard to see him lucking out like that twice in three years), and the already-out-there/maybe-too-small/but-mostly admired Richard Jenkins for The Visitor. Also, Dustin Hoffman is being promoted for a twee-sounding Last Chance Harvey, and you can’t overlook the possibility of a sentimental campaign getting him nominated. (Weird, an actor associated with groundbreaking films in the 60s/70s being pushed for such a nod; I guess we all become old-hat eventually)
It’s a familiar refrain in the best actress category: lots of solid candidates – Melissa Leo, Sally Hawkins, Kristen Scott-Thomas – in movies that may not have been seen by enough people. Anne Hathaway’s film is no world-beater, either, but it’s done enough business she’s almost sure to qualify. The most widely-seen of the in-release possibilities, Angelina Jolie, is actually the one with the least enthusiasm behind her. Any of these mentioned could make it to the final five – I’m betting most heavily on Hathaway and (pending a critics’ prize) Scott-Thomas – but most of the avid hopes are with the ladies still to come: Streep in Doubt, Kidman in Australia, Blanchett in Benjamin Button, and, the rooting choice of seemingly half the blogosphere, Winslet in Revolutionary Road. If that performance turns out a dud, the race will be thrown wide open.
Best supporting actor seems like the thinnest competition right now, which only increases the likelihood Heath Ledger will win by acclamation. Certainly his performance is the going-in favorite, with at least for the moment no major candidates to rival him. (Unless you go along with EW’s Robert Downey Jr. campaign. Not having seen Tropic Thunder, I can’t judge, but it strikes me as a wildly out-there pick) Of course, others will emerge: likely, someone from Milk will slip in – maybe Josh Brolin, in homage to his recent successful run. Philip Seymour Hoffman is apparently being quite seriously promoted as supporting in Doubt, and, given the role, he’d have an excellent shot at nomination. And everyone I know who’s read Revolutionary Road tells me the Michael Shannon character is very likely to get consideration. But that’s about all I see. Maybe Bill Irwin, unlikely in most years, will take advantage of the landscape and sneak in. Maybe Michael Sheen will decide to push for supporting after all. In any case, it’s odd to be this close to the end of the year and still see so few major possibilities for the category.
Penelope Cruz, we can say with some assurance, will get her second nomination for Vicky Christina. By all advance reviews, Viola Davis will stand alongside her, which doesn’t surprise me a whit, given that 1) the role onstage was a standout and 2) Davis is a whale of an actress. I also think general affection for Rachel Getting Married will put Rosemary DeWitt onto the slate; Debra Winger is a far more shaky proposition. Beyond that, it’s what buzz you believe. Marisa Tomei apparently will have a chance to extend her winner’s-redemption tour for The Wrestler. Amy Adams could bring an additional nod for Doubt. EW is pushing an actress of whom I’ve never heard for Benjamin Button; I’ll need more empirical evidence before I buy into that. And two big names – Kathy Bates/Revolutionary Road and Kate Winslet again/The Reader – are getting some buzz. I have a long-standing aversion to major stars lusting after second-tier Oscars, so I hope Winslet doesn’t go this route…but no one’s listened to me on this score in the past.
Best director will as usual mostly mirror best picture, which offers the chance of a real auteurists’ line-up – Fincher, Boyle, van Sant. Of people likely to compete for solitary director…early on I was going to say Mike Leigh, but Happy Go Lucky has performed disappointingly, so my two strongest picks would be Demme and Aronofsky.
In original screenplay, I chalk up the obligatory Woody Allen nomination for Vicky Christina, and the any-good-Pixar nod for Wall E (though the latter is more a director’s than writer’s movie). Mike Leigh could well extend his string in this category for Happy Go Lucky. And, though I think the script is Rachel Getting Married’s weakest element, I have little doubt Jenny Lumet is a strong contender. This nearly-full slate could, of course, be upset by latecomers. I’m never certain how scripts are classified – Milk, though obviously based on sources, seems to have been put on this side of the aisle, and I have no inside info about Australia or Gran Torino. But, all of them, and I believe The Wrestler, could get into the mix.
The adaptation side is a bit thinner, but as usual holds a ton of heavyweights: Benjamin Button, Revolutionary Road, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, The Reader and Slumdog Millionaire all reside here. Some variation of these will dominate the nomination slate, but we should never overlook the possibility of a smaller/foreign film taking a slot (a la Away from Her, The Motorcycle Diaries, About a Boy, City of God). I may be alone in advocating this, but I say don’t overlook Tell No One.
It’s silly to even speculate about the techs until we see the big ticket year-end films.