Odd Man Out - Which director will it be

[Sabin]

After all the hubbub over Weinstein/Rudin/Daldry, I wouldn't doubt if Daldry got the nod for artistic integrity.

I think it goes both ways. Scorsese got the nod for 'Gangs of New York' when his vision was in question. Daldry is dealing with immovable forces he can't begin to budge. I'm sure that will inspire sympathy but if 'The Reader' is received better than 'Cold Mountain', I don't think he has much to worry about.

Most often, the odd man director is a well respected director who has never gotten significant career recognition. That could mean Edward Zwick could get the nod...

I'm very dubious that Edward Zwick has an Oscar movie in him. He's basically Rob Reiner at this point. He makes the same movie again and again with the same misguided self-righteousness. I think his shot was for 'Glory' and he missed it. Sometimes it's as simple as that. We'll have to see if there's any chance that 'Defiance' inspires more enthusiasm than 'Blood Diamond' or 'The Last Samurai' but I sincerely doubt it because Zwick tends to work with the same creative forces again and again and they haven't sophisticated his approach in any capacity.

...or a left field Bryan Singer nod.

I don't think so only because Tom Cruise has an eyepatch but maybe. Honestly. It's certainly possible that 'Valkyrie' will be a far more efficient piece of entertainment than we all thought, and quite frankly Singer is a solid craftsman and there's no reason to believe that (Tom Cruise with an eyepatch aside) it won't be a compelling film. I think a slew of tech nods and perhaps a supporting nod tbd.

Charlie Kaufman could pick the odd man prize...

All preview audiences indicate that his script could have used a more cohesive directorial voice and that he probably shouldn't leave his desk. I still can't wait.

...or it could be Darren Aronofsky.

This is totally possible. I think there's a lot of directorial good will going towards him for doing 'Requiem' and actually finishing 'The Fountain'. 'The Wrestler' is getting fantastic notices.

Then there's possibility some others could come back and do it like Ron Howard...

The reason I don't think so is that the play is an enjoyable lecture that probably needs something else. I don't see Ron Howard bringing it to life. 'Apollo 13' and 'A Beautiful Mind' are compelling stories on the page. 'Frost/Nixon' is a compelling stageplay perhaps wrongheadedly adapted.

Joe Wright...

Possible but GODDAMN! does that movie look sappy as hell!

Oliver Stone...

Who the fuck knows? Honestly? That one could be anything. I can't wait.

Or this could be super bizarre and it could be Spike Lee.

No chance in hell. Movie is DOA.

[OscarGuy]

After all the hubbub over Weinstein/Rudin/Daldry, I wouldn't doubt if Daldry got the nod for artistic integrity.

Most often, the odd man director is a well respected director who has never gotten significant career recognition. That could mean Edward Zwick could get the nod or a left field Bryan Singer nod. Charlie Kaufman could pick the odd man prize or it could be Darren Aronofsky. Then there's possibility some others could come back and do it like Ron Howard, Joe Wright, Oliver Stone. Or this could be super bizarre and it could be Spike Lee.

[rolotomasi99]

in the past 30 years only two years (the films of 1981 and 2005) have seen the five nominees for best picture line up with the five nominees for best director. most of the time on of the director nominees will be for a film not nominated for best picture, though every once in awhile there will be two directors.

while there are a wide variety of best picture possibilities, figuring out which of those five films will not be nominated for best director and which film will replace it is always a fun challenge.

my predictions for best picture currently are:
CHANGELING
THE DARK KNIGHT
MILK
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
WALL-E

my predictions for best director are:
CHANGELING
MILK
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
THE READER
THE ROAD

as of now, i feel confident about all of my best picture nominees except WALL-E, which could easily be replaced by THE READER, FROST/NIXON, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, AUSTRALIA, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BEJAMIN BUTTON, or DOUBT.

of the best director nominees, i am pretty confident that if MILK, CHANGELING, and REVOLUIONARY ROAD are nominated for best picture they will receive a corresponding director nomination. i am equally confident THE DARK KNIGHT has a strong chance for a best picture nomination, but little chance of a director nomination.

it is the two odd men out that i am having trouble with.

THE READER seems like a strong possibility for best director whether it receives a best picture nomination or not. daldry has had both situations with his previous two films -- odd man out and picture/director combo.

movies like FROST/NIXON, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, AUSTRALIA, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BEJAMIN BUTTON, or DOUBT all seem like they would absolutely need a best picture nomination to secure a director nomination.

of those best picture nominees, FROST/NIXON seems to have a shot at a director nomination. howard has found himself left out of the director lineup despite a best picture nomination, and has also had a director/picture match where he ended up winning in both categories. however, i would think since the film is not likely to be nominated in many technical categories it is riding on its acting, screenplay, and directing nominations to justify best picture.
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BEJAMIN BUTTON seems like it could easily go either way. prior to ZODIAC i would have said fincher is purely a visual director, but with his last film he proved to me and many critics he had really matured and grown as a director. i could see the film being nominated basedly solely on the strength of its non-dramatic aspects, but if the directors are impressed they may recognize him as finally having grown up.
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, AUSTRALIA, or DOUBT seem like perfect candidates for a best picture nomination without a director nomination.
boyle's film is small, he has no clout in hollywood, and he is sharing directing duties.
luhrmann's film (like ATONEMENT last year) will probably be nominated because of its technical skills and sweeping storytelling, but the directors will not be impressed -- and luhrmann has already experienced this exclusion before.
shanley is a playwright who has directed few films, and his move is all about the script and the performances.

as for who the director replacing these best picture nominees, like i said THE READER seems a possibility. daldry seems well respected among the directors, and this film in particular has all the potential to be great.

THE ROAD also seems possible. it strikes me as the type of film which just is too bleak to get a best picture nomination but impresses the directors (like LEAVING LAS VEGAS or DEAD MAN WALKING). THE WRESTLER could also fit this description and finally bring a nomination for aronofsky.

what does everyone else think?



Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1222980830