The First Hopefuls List

barrybrooks8
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Post by barrybrooks8 »

It will be such a waste of an Oscar if Wall-E wins for screenplay.
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Post by Sabin »

Quick thoughts:

1) You say that Sean Penn couldn't push 'All the King's Men' into respectability. That movie had been pushed back for over a year and was plagued by horrible buzz throughout production. 'Milk' doesn't have any of that bad buzz and all advanced word is that Sean Penn is brilliant. He's playing not just a martyr but a genuinely beloved person. Who knows for the film itself but Penn seems like a decent bet.

2) 'Frost/Nixon' and 'Doubt' are begging to disappoint.

3) At this point, Edward Zwick is an embarrassing Oscar pariah and 'Defiance' looks like his most baiting film to date. It could certainly pull in some nominations for Liev Schreiber or Jamie Bell and some technical noms but Zwick hasn't demonstrated any real leaps in storytelling ability and I think people know it. It could certainly surprise but I'd wager against it. If Zwick's untold story of WWII Russian Jews beats out Spike Lee's untold story of WWII African Americans, look for a shit storm.

4) Fairly confident in saying that this is Michael Shannon's year to break through and 'Revolutionary Road' is that part and vehicle.
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Post by flipp525 »

jack wrote:The only films of interest thus far are WALL-E and Revolutionary Road. I think you're underestimating the idea of a DiCaprio nomination (the guy has to win, and soon).
I think that Revolutionary Road is at play in all four categories: Best Actor (DiCaprio), Actress (Kate Winslet), Supporting Actor (Michael Shannon), Supporting Actress (Kathy Bates).
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Post by OscarGuy »

As long as the Animated Feature category exists, animated films will not get Best Picture nomination.
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Post by jack »

Big Magilla wrote:OK, I watched the trailer and I'm still not impressed. Looks like Legends of the Fall II to me.
I agree. The trailer for Defiance grabs no interest.

The only films of interest thus far are WALL-E and Revolutionary Road. I think you're underestimating the idea of a DiCaprio nomination (the guy has to win, and soon). As of right now I hope WALL-E dominates. It's simply one of the best films I've seen in years.
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Post by Big Magilla »

OK, I watched the trailer and I'm still not impressed. Looks like Legends of the Fall II to me.
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Post by OscarGuy »

Watch the trailer for Defiance, Magilla... Matter of fact, you really should consider my weekly Previews updates where I briefly review trailers and posters that have been released. The Defiance trailer has been out for some time and when you consider the subject, it's Oscar baity enough to be a major player. And Edward Zwick may have his unevenness, but it's not like Glory, Legends of the Fall, Courage Under Fire, The Last Samurai and Blood Diamond were exactly anathema at the Oscars. none of them got Best Picture nominations, but they were all well considered and decently well reviewed and after his success financially with Blood Diamond, this kind of film sounds like it could carry him home.

I think the Brokebacklash may still affect Milk. Sean Penn couldn't drive All the King's Men, 21 Grams, I Am Sam or Before Night Falls into Best Picture nominations.

If this were a lesser film, sure. Her A Mighty Heart wasn't exactly a box office smash and couldn't muster much attention. But this is Clint Eastwood. His film's already received strong notices and the man seems to be a god in Hollywood. He got Sean Penn the Oscar he was "owed" and Hilary Swank picked up a second Oscar despite most of us believing she would be passed over for someone more experienced. I think Jolie's a strong threat.
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Post by Big Magilla »

I haven't heard anything about Defiance, but I doubt another World War II movie, especially one directed by the underwhelming Edward Zwick, is going to win any major Oscars, especially best picture and director.

Frost/Nixon could go either way. Ron Howard is always a threat. However, unless the Pat Nixon character is greatly expanded from the stage version Patty McCormack isn't going to be nominated, let alone win. Ellen Burstyn as the tsk-tsking Barbara Bush is a more likely former First Lady winner.

I also expect Gus Van Sant's Milk to do better with Sean Penn quite possibly overtaking Frank Langella to win his second best actor Oscar. Should the film pick up the lion's share of critics' awards it will be an almost certain best picture winner lest the Academy's already tainted reputation for denying Brokeback Mountain in the year that they are likely to reward Brokeback's Heath Ledger with the first posthumous acting Oscar in 32 years, and yes, they are, especially after being mortified by Tom O'Neill's revolting remarks to the Associated Press about Oscar voters not wanting to hug the dead.

No way are they going to give Angelina Jolie another Oscar any time soon. She couldn't even get nominated last year for a well received portrayal of a real life heroine. I fully expect Meryl Streep to pick up her first Oscar in more than a quarter century on her fifteenth nomination whether or not Doubt is a commercial success.

So, my early predictions are for Milk, Van Sant, Penn, Streep, Ledger and maybe Burstyn. She's a bit of a long shot, but her fellow actors love her, nominating her for an Emmy every time she appears on TV.
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Post by Zahveed »

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0472033/

It's still in production so the release date is subject to change.
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Post by OscarGuy »

Anonymous: I'm still not sold on the Heath Ledger hype. I think it could seriously backfire on them. Having said that, I'm not entirely ruling it out (it is in the list even if not as a nominee).

Haven't heard or seen anything about The Road, so I'm focusing on past nominees and bigger names.

Doubt I was very iffy on, but it has a strong cast. Frost/Nixon, however should buck the tradition. Being piloted by Ron Howard automatically makes it a stronger contender. And the reason Proof didn't do well is because it wasn't very good. History Boys I can't speak to.

Zahveed: 9 wasn't on any of the lists and I haven't seen a trailer. There is no ineligibility factor yet until their submissions list comes out in December, so I don't know if it's eligible. I don't even know when it releases.
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Post by Zahveed »

Is the animated film "9" not eligible?
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Post by anonymous1980 »

Unless there's a HUGE backlash, there's no way Heath Ledger is NOT going to be nominated for The Dark Knight. Genre bias be damned.

The supporting actor contender for The Road is Kodi Smit-McPhee.

I'm also seriously doubting the Oscar chances of Frost/Nixon and Doubt at this point in the game since Tony-winning plays haven't been doing too well lately (Proof, The History Boys).
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Post by OscarGuy »

Well, normally this list would have gone up in May, but I can't believe how busy I've been. So, while I express my normal caveat that it is subject to change (and usually about 80-90% of it does), I bring you my 2008 Oscar Hopefuls list based on what I've read or seen of the potential nominees.

Now, keep in mind I did make one specifically bold and unrealistic prediction: Australia as a submission for Foreign Language Film. They relaxed some of the linguistic rules, but I doubt it will be enough for this film to make it in. In spite of this and largely because I have no idea what some countries will submit, I have put it in there.

There's on prediction, I'm feeling fairly confident about: John Malkovich. Outside of Letters from Iwo Jima, which featured no veteran actors in supporting roles (at least that American audiences would recognize), Clint Eastwood's last other three Best Picture nominees all resulted in a Hollywood legend with an Oscar in Supporting Actor (Gene Hackman, Tim Robbins and Morgan Freeman). I see this is a great opportunity for Malkovich who many have felt for some time has deserved Oscar recognition.

Anyway, feel free to comment, but be forewarned these are early predictions and I already know that some of my choices are a bit far-fetched and fully expect them to be blown down. Also, feel free to mention film I might have missed. I used IMDB's Coming Soon section and the release schedule list from ComingSoon.net and took the rest of ideas from the many dozens of trailers I have seen so far for films with 2008-listed release dates. So, it's possible that some may not be out yet and might not be on the radar.
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