The Post-Festival Landscape
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Mister Tee
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There's been so much else to talk and write about -- see especially the Fall Campaign thread -- we've somehow managed to let the whole Venice/Telluride/Toronto festival period pass without serious comment or analysis. Herewith, my attempt to remedy that.
Various film pundits don't seem to have much cared for, especially, Toronto this year. The chief complaint appears to be there weren't enough Oscar hopefuls on display this year. But, as far as I can see, that's not really true: a number of films appeared from essentially nowhere and seem, by virtue of critical response, poised to solidly compete in this year's race. (And thank god: the official contenders' list prior had looked thin indeed) What the critics' gripe really amounts to is this: they didn't get to view the November/December biggies early. To which I say, Screw off, and wait, like the rest of us. Meantime, there's plenty to talk about, as the first of the year's possible contenders (well, after Heath Ledger and Penelope Cruz) have finally slipped into place.
The big surprise gainer appears to be Boyle's Slumdog Millionaire, which won Toronto's Audience award and is spoken of by all as a real crowd-pleaser, as well as an honorable work. This seems to make it a genuine hopeful for the best picture slate, whether at a lower, Full Monty/Miss Sunshine level, or as something higher. In any event, it's likely to make a solid run, as there's almost always some small-budget effort in among the big boppers. (Yet many allegedly professional Oscar bloggers will, year after year, predict a slate of all A-listers. Go figure) I've been a Boyle enthusiast since Trainspotting, and am certainly pleased he seems about to make a big leap.
It's harder to know just how high to rate The Wrestler. Despite its overall win at Venice, the vast portion of critical enthusiasm appears to be for Rourke -- he's now a near-certain best actor nominee, and might, with critical help, contend for the prize itself. Tomei has also received significant support, and could get her third nod. (As those "Jack Palance made a mistake" stories fade further into history) The question is whether the film can go further, into screenwriting/directing/film territory…and for that, we'll have to wait until audiences get to see it.
The next most likely contender appears to be Kristin Scott Thomas in I've Loved You So Long. I'm always dubious about foreign nominees -- last year's best actress notwithstanding -- but Scott Thomas' reviews have been so emphatically favorable that I've been won over. The fact that she's a familiar face, with an English-language nod behind her, presumably helps.
Next up is Rachel Getting Married, which, certainly to my surprise, has yielded major enthusiasm for Anne Hathaway. At the moment, she seems, along with Scott Thomas, the strongest of the viewed best actress candidates. There's also talk about Rosemary Dewitt and (in a smaller role) Debra Winger in support, and you'd have to think the original screenplay is also a possibility.
Equally possible for actress-screenplay mention is Happy Go Lucky. All deference to Precious Doll, who loathes it -- the critics appear to disagree in a big way. Obviously the film has to get out in the marketplace, and could fall down. But, for now, based on response, it has to be viewed as a significant contender.
Apart from that…there's a film called Lovely, Still, with Martin Landau and Ellen Burstyn, of which some are fond, but it seems a bit too wee a thing for Oscars -- esp. with Richard Jenkins already struggling for the low-grossing-indie spot, and the best actress category more competitive than in recent years… The Duchess gives off a "you'll like it if this is the sort of thing you like" vibe, and is unlikely for much -- except, of course, costumes, where recent history suggests it will romp. Anything I've missed?
Anyway, where does that leave us? 1, maybe 2 best picture possibilities on the scene (among Slumdog, Wrestler, Dark Night -- I can't imagine all three). One certain best actor (Rourke), with Jenkins in the gray area, and the rest still to come. As many as three actresses firmly in sight -- Scott Thomas, Hathaway, Hawkins -- with Jolie, already praised at Cannes, raising us to nearly a full slate with much to come. Supporting actor is Ledger running unopposed for the moment; the friend from Happy Go Lucky is being promoted strongest of anything so far seen. Supporting actress, however, is surprisingly stocked, given Cruz, Tomei and the pair from Rachel Getting Married.
Beyond that, of course, we just have to wait to see. Obviously there are films about which, based on pedigree, I'm far more sanguine than I am about others -- Benjamin Button, Milk, Revolutionary Road, The Changeling, The Reader, The Road. I'm willing to assume there will be acting contenders from Doubt and Frost/Nixon, even if the projects don't thrill me. I'm far more dubious about The Soloist, Defiance, Australia, or Body of Lies, but surprises can happen.
Here's a wild thought: suppose Benjamin Button, Changeling and Revolutionary Road make the best picture list (along with, say, Slumdog and The Wrestler). You could have Brad and Angelina, Kate and Leo all nominated -- an Oscar ratings dream line-up -- but all in worthy, non-crapola films. Who needs The Dark Knight to juice up interest when you've got something like that?
Various film pundits don't seem to have much cared for, especially, Toronto this year. The chief complaint appears to be there weren't enough Oscar hopefuls on display this year. But, as far as I can see, that's not really true: a number of films appeared from essentially nowhere and seem, by virtue of critical response, poised to solidly compete in this year's race. (And thank god: the official contenders' list prior had looked thin indeed) What the critics' gripe really amounts to is this: they didn't get to view the November/December biggies early. To which I say, Screw off, and wait, like the rest of us. Meantime, there's plenty to talk about, as the first of the year's possible contenders (well, after Heath Ledger and Penelope Cruz) have finally slipped into place.
The big surprise gainer appears to be Boyle's Slumdog Millionaire, which won Toronto's Audience award and is spoken of by all as a real crowd-pleaser, as well as an honorable work. This seems to make it a genuine hopeful for the best picture slate, whether at a lower, Full Monty/Miss Sunshine level, or as something higher. In any event, it's likely to make a solid run, as there's almost always some small-budget effort in among the big boppers. (Yet many allegedly professional Oscar bloggers will, year after year, predict a slate of all A-listers. Go figure) I've been a Boyle enthusiast since Trainspotting, and am certainly pleased he seems about to make a big leap.
It's harder to know just how high to rate The Wrestler. Despite its overall win at Venice, the vast portion of critical enthusiasm appears to be for Rourke -- he's now a near-certain best actor nominee, and might, with critical help, contend for the prize itself. Tomei has also received significant support, and could get her third nod. (As those "Jack Palance made a mistake" stories fade further into history) The question is whether the film can go further, into screenwriting/directing/film territory…and for that, we'll have to wait until audiences get to see it.
The next most likely contender appears to be Kristin Scott Thomas in I've Loved You So Long. I'm always dubious about foreign nominees -- last year's best actress notwithstanding -- but Scott Thomas' reviews have been so emphatically favorable that I've been won over. The fact that she's a familiar face, with an English-language nod behind her, presumably helps.
Next up is Rachel Getting Married, which, certainly to my surprise, has yielded major enthusiasm for Anne Hathaway. At the moment, she seems, along with Scott Thomas, the strongest of the viewed best actress candidates. There's also talk about Rosemary Dewitt and (in a smaller role) Debra Winger in support, and you'd have to think the original screenplay is also a possibility.
Equally possible for actress-screenplay mention is Happy Go Lucky. All deference to Precious Doll, who loathes it -- the critics appear to disagree in a big way. Obviously the film has to get out in the marketplace, and could fall down. But, for now, based on response, it has to be viewed as a significant contender.
Apart from that…there's a film called Lovely, Still, with Martin Landau and Ellen Burstyn, of which some are fond, but it seems a bit too wee a thing for Oscars -- esp. with Richard Jenkins already struggling for the low-grossing-indie spot, and the best actress category more competitive than in recent years… The Duchess gives off a "you'll like it if this is the sort of thing you like" vibe, and is unlikely for much -- except, of course, costumes, where recent history suggests it will romp. Anything I've missed?
Anyway, where does that leave us? 1, maybe 2 best picture possibilities on the scene (among Slumdog, Wrestler, Dark Night -- I can't imagine all three). One certain best actor (Rourke), with Jenkins in the gray area, and the rest still to come. As many as three actresses firmly in sight -- Scott Thomas, Hathaway, Hawkins -- with Jolie, already praised at Cannes, raising us to nearly a full slate with much to come. Supporting actor is Ledger running unopposed for the moment; the friend from Happy Go Lucky is being promoted strongest of anything so far seen. Supporting actress, however, is surprisingly stocked, given Cruz, Tomei and the pair from Rachel Getting Married.
Beyond that, of course, we just have to wait to see. Obviously there are films about which, based on pedigree, I'm far more sanguine than I am about others -- Benjamin Button, Milk, Revolutionary Road, The Changeling, The Reader, The Road. I'm willing to assume there will be acting contenders from Doubt and Frost/Nixon, even if the projects don't thrill me. I'm far more dubious about The Soloist, Defiance, Australia, or Body of Lies, but surprises can happen.
Here's a wild thought: suppose Benjamin Button, Changeling and Revolutionary Road make the best picture list (along with, say, Slumdog and The Wrestler). You could have Brad and Angelina, Kate and Leo all nominated -- an Oscar ratings dream line-up -- but all in worthy, non-crapola films. Who needs The Dark Knight to juice up interest when you've got something like that?