The Post-Festival Landscape

[Eric]

Please, lets not do this in Mister Tee's fine thread.

Of course, if we must, then yes, anyone who didn't know Penelope Cruz is getting major Oscar buzz at the moment is living under a rock or (like Pen) mostly excluding all exposure to Oscar buzz lately. That's not to say Cruz's buzz won't taper in the coming months, but she was definitely the only other name aside from Ledger being tossed about this summer.



Edited By Eric on 1221678964

[OscarGuy]

I may take some of this personally, Flipp, but I find it rather insulting to be lambasted for not reading other prognosticators in making my PERSONAL selections. It's why I don't read film reviews until after I've written my own. I'll check out general consensus information or average ratings, sure, but I won't read the body of most reviewers' articles because I don't want to feel unduly influenced.

All I was stated was I hadn't heard anything about it either, echoing Penelope's "first I've heard it" response. Others mentioned that she had been receiving notices, which is fine and grand, but then Tee responded making it sound like I'm some fool for not having read anyone else. I wasn't taking a disrespectful tone when I posted, but it sure sounded like he was being disrespectful in his post.

But, it doesn't matter. I have not yet said Cruz isn't going to get nominated. I also haven't said she is. I have a wait-and-see attitude about many of these things until the critics start handing out accolades. First and foremost, we've all been burned by such predictions too early that the critics didn't support and thus crashed a potential nominee's chances. Secondly, for a Woody Allen film, these days, to be an Oscar contender, he must pick up critic group recognition. If he doesn't, his films usually collapse under the weight of the positive critics who didn't like it enough to push it further.

Again, I'm not saying she won't get nominated and while other prognosticators (who probably crib off one another anyway) may have chosen to put her in a guaranteed-nomination position, I'm not so altruistic. I like to see the entire landscape. Yes, I've weighed in early, but most of my predictions (as are others' on this board), they are based on traditionally-known quantities and have a lot of history built into them. It's why I was against declaring Amy Ryan a foregone conclusion last year. It didn't fit well historically to me and it turned out I was right.

Yes, I've made some bad early calls (No Country for instance), for which I've taken responsibility, but I didn't let facts stand in my way of changing my position. I did end up predicting No Country for a BP nom and eventually predicted it as a winner. Sure, it's nice to say "I made a bold prediction early on and was right", but for every one that any one of us make, there are at least two or three dozen others we don't get.

So, while I may have taken it too personally, I still felt the tone was rather disrespectful, which explains why I went on the defensive.

[flipp525]

No disrespect intended, OscarGuy (and I think you're taking this all a bit personally) but the Amy Ryan example only serves to work in our favor in this argument. Similar to Cruz, Ryan was singled out by various critics, Oscar prognosticators, and even average filmgoers as a standout from her film which was also released rather early in the season and, therefore, found herself on many Best Supporting Actor frontrunner lists even before she started racking up awards.

True, many here and elsewhere, declared Ryan the frontrunner heading into the ceremony, only to be surprised by Tilda Swinton who, if it hadn't been for her BAFTA win, would've truly been an out-of-nowhere kind of choice. But no one is saying that Penelope Cruz is the frontrunner to win the Oscar (at least on here) only that she's becoming, day-by-day, one of the cemented final five.

[OscarGuy]

Well, you know what my response to that is: Amy Ryan.

Yeah, cause she for sure didn't get nominated last year.

You know what I meant (don't be disrespectful). I called long before she lost that she wouldn't win and countless people on this board and especially on other Oscar sites, kept saying she would win. It was proof that just because others say it's so doesn't make it so.

[FilmFan720]

Well, you know what my response to that is: Amy Ryan.

Yeah, cause she for sure didn't get nominated last year.

[barrybrooks8]

Cruz did her best work in Vicky Cristina Barcelona. I was reluctant to see it, but I am a fan of Allen, especially the talky dramas (Interiors, Match Point, and I consider September the best picture of that year). She was for sure the highlight of the film. Scarlet Johannsen has disappointed me greatly with some of her choices. While she was refreshing in Ghost World, Match Point, Lost in and Translation, and In Good Company (and even Scoop, which I didn't think was THAT bad), she was useless in The Prestige, The Other Boleyn Girl, and especially The Black Dahlia. She was completely overshadowed by Cruz and newcomer Rebecca Hall.

[Penelope]

My excuse is this: I recently moved from Chicago to Florida and I've yet to land a job--I keep applying, but nobody ever calls; at the same time, I'm working on going back to school; my on-line interest has focused on politics, lately; I read very little of the other Oscar bloggers anymore, anyway, depending y'all here to keep me posted about who's getting the buzz; and Vicky Christina Barcelona just opened in my part of the world last week. So forgive me for not being aware.

[OscarGuy]

And what happened to Scarlett Johansson whom I heard a lot of talk about back in 2005 for Match Point? Nothing. What about Elaine May in Small Time Crooks?

Ever since the Bullets Over Broadway/Mighty Aphrodite back-to-back in 1994/1995, people have cited Woody as having a chance. This might change this year, sure (I mean what Oscar voter doesn't like girl-on-girl kissing?), but we cannot ignore the recent failures. I got burned with Johansson, so I'm a bit reticent this year to recognize Cruz even in spite of Woody's past successes getting Supporting Actress nominations for his projects.

I had thought of Cruz some time ago (without hearing any buzz, mind you), but then I thought of Johansson and relented. Maybe I should have included her and then I wouldn't be getting this crap, but I didn't. So be it.



Edited By OscarGuy on 1221665601

[FilmFan720]

I've seen it in non-Oscar material too...many of the reviews cited her as the front runner for the Oscar, and mainstream writers have mentioned it in regards to her.

[flipp525]

It truly boggles my mind you could say you haven't heard anything about her at this point.

I have to agree. Cruz has been consistently cited by almost every prognosticator I've encountered. And, as FilmFan mentioned, people who are not even into "art house" films have also singled her out. My sister, who works on Wall Street and rarely comes up for air (especially these days), mentioned her performance to me right off the bat.

[OscarGuy]

Heaven forbid I read articles that aren't on OTHER Oscar "bloggers'" sites. Obviously, because other Oscar prognosticators say so, I must as well. Well, you know what my response to that is: Amy Ryan. And I'm not the only one who wasn't aware she was getting "buzz". Penelope was surprised too. So, why aren't you chastising HIS comments?



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[Mister Tee]

This is the first I've really hard Cruz talked up for Vicky Cristina Barcelona. It just seems like such a slight film, though I guess Woody Allen films almost always have a supporting actress in contention, but I agree with Pen not having heard anything much about her.

Okay, sorry if this sounds disrespectful, but...do you even read anyone else? Cruz's performance has been WIDELY praised...and, as FilmFan says, the film is commercially on a par with any of Woody's greatest recent-decade successes. I don't necessarily have ultimate regard for any of the other Oscar bloggers individually, but every single one of Kris Tapley, Sasha Stone, Scott Feinberg and Nathaniel at Film Experience has her down on the list of predicted supporting actress nominees. It truly boggles my mind you could say you haven't heard anything about her at this point.

[FilmFan720]

Penelope Cruz has been garnering a lot of buzz, and it has been doing better at the box office than Woody Allen has done in a while. I know lots of non-art house folk who have seen and liked (really liked) it. I think Cruz is a near lock for a nomination (as much as one can be this early), and has been getting quite a lot of press as such.

[OscarGuy]

This is the first I've really hard Cruz talked up for Vicky Cristina Barcelona. It just seems like such a slight film, though I guess Woody Allen films almost always have a supporting actress in contention, but I agree with Pen not having heard anything much about her.

[Penelope]

I admit that my interests have been elsewhere lately, but has Penelope Cruz really been receiving Oscar buzz for the Woody Allen film (I can never remember the title)? I probably should see it, but I just. have. no. desire.



Edited By Penelope on 1221597841