Box Office Predix - What will be the blockbusters of 08?

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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Tue Jan 13, 2009 1:53 am

Between its Globe sweep, its 7 or 8 Oscar nods and 5 wins, Slumdog is going to be one of the highest-grossing Best Picture winners (OOPS I said it!) in a long time (ROTK notwithstanding).

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Postby Greg » Mon Jan 12, 2009 7:01 pm

I now think that there is enough momentum for Slumdog Millionaire for when it goes into wide release that it will end up making over $200 million in the U.S.
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Postby MovieWes » Sat Jan 10, 2009 12:13 pm

Here's a shocker. Can Gran Torino be a surprise $100 million hit?

EXCLUSIVE EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $10M, $3,561 PTA, $21M cume
2. NEW – Bride Wars (Fox) - $7.6M, $2,356 PTA, $7.6M cume
3. NEW – The Unborn (Rogue) - $7.5M, $3,183 PTA, $7.5M cume
4. Marley & Me (Fox) - $3.6M, $1,035 PTA, $115.96M cume
5. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $3.3M, $1,120 PTA, $88.17M cume
6. Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $3.1M, $883 PTA, $91.72M cume
7. Valkyrie (UA/MGM) - $2.75M, $969 PTA, $67.59M cume
8. Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $2.4M, $812 PTA, $85.65M cume
9. NEW – Not Easily Broken (Sony) - $2M, $2,762 PTA, $2M cume
10. Seven Pounds (Sony) - $1.68M, $686 PTA, $64.61M cume
11. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $1.1M, $1,839 PTA, $31.44M cume
12. Doubt (Miramax) - $1.1M, $855 PTA, $21.53M cume

EXCLUSIVE EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $30M, $10,684 PTA, $41M cume
2. NEW – Bride Wars (Fox) - $21.28M, $6,596 PTA, $21.28M cume
3. NEW – The Unborn (Rogue) - $18M, $7,640 PTA, $18M cume
4. Marley & Me (Fox) - $12.96M, $3,726 PTA, $125.32M cume
5. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $11.38M, $3,863 PTA, $96.26M cume
6. Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $11.16M, $3,179 PTA, $99.78M cume
7. Valkyrie (UA/MGM) - $8.8M, $3,101 PTA, $73.64M cume
8. Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $7.92M, $2,680 PTA, $91.17M cume
9. NEW – Not Easily Broken (Sony) - $5.8M, $8,011 PTA, $5.8M cume
10. Seven Pounds (Sony) - $5.56M, $2,265 PTA, $68.49M cume
11. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $4.03M, $6,711 PTA, $34.37M cume
12. Doubt (Miramax) - $4.01M, $3,120 PTA, $24.45M cume




Edited By MovieWes on 1231607937
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Sat Dec 27, 2008 8:53 pm

MovieWes wrote:I am not so sure that Click is a good comparison to Bedtime Stories. Click was a PG-13 rated comedy targeted at teenagers and Bedtime Stories is a PG rated Disney movie targeted at children. The only similarities between the two are the fantasy elements and Adam Sandler.

true, the pg-13 may have kept some littler kids away, but i was just going off of what critics said. many claimed CLICK was sandler trying to branch out from his usual teenager-college crowd. the previews made the film seem much more focused on family and fantasy elements. i am happy to see it under THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON for both thursday and friday. it will probably pull ahead on saturday, but at least one of the three top films this long weekend will be well made.
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Postby OscarGuy » Sat Dec 27, 2008 12:22 pm

Well, I can tell you why The Spirit isn't doing well. As you guys know, my friends often have deplorable taste in movies. And generally, this kind of movie would be right up their alley. Only one of my friends didn't like Sin City, the rest adored it and they also liked 300 quite a lot. However, I can't think of more than 1 or 2 that actually wanted to see this movie.

My mother and I saw Valkyrie on Christmas day and we were both surprised at how packed the auditorium was. Matter of fact, it was a complete 180 from Thanksgiving when there was virtually no one in or at the theater we chose. So, obviously there were better influences for this season. My friends have agreed to see Benjamin Button, so we'll see that on Sunday.




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Postby MovieWes » Sat Dec 27, 2008 12:10 pm

I'm not insulted. In fact, I'm hoping you're right and it doesn't make $200 million. But, considering the intelligence of modern moviegoers, I am afraid that is too much to ask for. Sadly, it probably won't make less than $180 million.

I am not so sure that Click is a good comparison to Bedtime Stories. Click was a PG-13 rated comedy targeted at teenagers and Bedtime Stories is a PG rated Disney movie targeted at children. The only similarities between the two are the fantasy elements and Adam Sandler.




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Postby rolotomasi99 » Sat Dec 27, 2008 11:54 am

MovieWes wrote:Very, very strange. Marley and Me is going to be the WTF?! sleeper hit of the year with a possible $60 million 5-day haul, which means that it could make more than $200 million (making it this year's Alvin and the Chipmunks). The Curious Case of Benjamin Button will be at around $50 million after 5 days and will probably make north of $200 million. Not a huge surprise, though. Valkyrie is not doing bad at all and will have a $35-40 million 5-day haul and will probably make about $100-110 million, which is basically The Last Samurai territory. Bedtime Stories probably isn't going to be Adam Sandler's biggest hit, but it will make around $150 million by the end of its run.

I'm so glad that nobody is going to see The Spirit. It looks damn near unwatchable.

do not be insulted moviewes, but i sure hope you are wrong about MARLEY AND ME making more than $200 m. that truly would be the equivalent of ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS making so much money -- just disgusting and ridiculous. i am hoping everyone who wants to see the damn movie will have seen it by sunday. even if it has good word of mouth, it will have exhausted its audience base and very few people will go to see it the next weekend and the weekends after that. if it makes $120 m like FOUR CHRISTMASES, it will be far less painful.

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON is doing well and deserves success most of all the new films released this holiday weekend. though i have problems with the film, i do think it is magical. it will probably have pretty good word of mouth, though i do think the long running time was pretty tough for people. then if it sweeps the oscar nominations like many of us are assuming, it will get a very nice box office boost from that. i think the $150 m range is quite possible with many oscar noms, and $200 is only possible with many oscar wins including best picture.

i am sure tom cruise is breathing a little easier. you are right moviewes, VALKYRIE will probably just limp past $100 m like THE LAST SAMURAI did. i am surprised BEDTIME STORIES is in third place. that may change by the end of the weekend. considering sandler's last child-friendly film CLICK only made $137 m, i am assuming parents just do not want to take their kids to see the usually raunchy movie star. also, his usual teenager and college crowd do not want to see him in kid-friendly mode. i am surprised THE SPIRIT is so far down. i figured the fanboys would at least be able to secure a healthy opening weekend even if the movie ultimately bombed.

all around, a very interesting christmas movie weekend.




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Postby MovieWes » Sat Dec 27, 2008 11:32 am

EXCLUSIVE FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Marley & Me (Fox) - $14.06M, $4,042 PTA, $28.56M cume
2. NEW – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) - $10.2M, $3,414 PTA, $22M cume
3. NEW – Bedtime Stories (Disney) - $10.1M, $2,744 PTA, $20.4M cume
4. NEW – Valkyrie (MGM/UA) - $8M, $2,951 PTA, $16.4M cume
5. Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $5.5M, $1,602 PTA, $38.72M cume
6. Seven Pounds (Sony) - $4.55M, $1,653 PTA, $29.92M cume
7. NEW – The Spirit (Lionsgate) - $3M, $1,196 PTA, $6.8M cume
8. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) - $2.2M, $919 PTA, $57.42M cume
9. Tale of Despereaux (Universal) - $2.14M, $691 PTA, $20.83M cume
10. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) - $2.09M, $833 PTA, $108.67M cume
11. Doubt (Miramax) - $1.47M, $1,160 PTA, $4.55M cume
12. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $1.28M, $2,096 PTA $16.18M cume

Very, very strange. Marley and Me is going to be the WTF?! sleeper hit of the year with a possible $60 million 5-day haul, which means that it could make more than $200 million (making it this year's Alvin and the Chipmunks). The Curious Case of Benjamin Button will be at around $50 million after 5 days and will probably make north of $200 million. Not a huge surprise, though. Valkyrie is not doing bad at all and will have a $35-40 million 5-day haul and will probably make about $100-110 million, which is basically The Last Samurai territory. Bedtime Stories probably isn't going to be Adam Sandler's biggest hit, but it will make around $150 million by the end of its run.

I'm so glad that nobody is going to see The Spirit. It looks damn near unwatchable.




Edited By MovieWes on 1230395724
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Mon Dec 22, 2008 5:56 pm

christmas is always a busy time for movies, but this is the first christmas weekend i remember to have 5 new wide releases.

BEDTIME STORIES, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON, MARLEY AND ME, THE SPIRIT, and VALKYRIE will all be competing for audiences on december 25.

in this showdown, i think BEDTIME STORIES has the best shot at number 1 since kids and their parents are stupid. THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON will come in second for all the folks without kids. MARLEY AND ME will probably come in third, with THE SPIRIT and VALKYRIE close behind. YES MAN will come in at number 6, and various other films will follow.

hopefully THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON has a solid opening holiday weekend, and stays strong the following weeks with good word of mouth. january has absolutely no big releases, but the few remaining oscar hopefuls will expand throughout that month. looking forward to REVOLUTIONARY ROAD.
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Postby MovieWes » Sat Dec 20, 2008 12:36 pm

It looks as if Will Smith's streak has finally been broken. Seven Pounds will be his lowest grossing picture since Ali. $85 million tops for this one. On a high note, though, Yes Man is also a flop as well. It will top out at around $95 million at best. The big hit of the holiday season will now be either Bedtime Stories or The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Hopefully it will be the latter, but the Sandler flick will probably appeal to the same audience that made Night at the Museum the second highest grossing film of 2006.

EXCLUSIVE EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $6.7M, $1,951 PTA, $6.7M cume
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) - $5.3M, $1,922 PTA, $5.3M cume
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) - $3.8M, $1,224 PTA, $3.8M cume
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) - $3.1M, $871 PTA, $41.57M cume
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) - $3.06M, $871 PTA, $95.47M cume
6. Twilight (Summit) - $1.55M, $521 PTA, $154.79M cume
7. Bolt (Disney) - $1.31M, $443 PTA, $92.06M cume
8. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $1.24M, $2,120 PTA, $10.23M cume
9. Milk (Focus) - $804,000, $2,257 PTA, $9.48M cume
10. Australia (Fox) - $763,000, $345 PTA, $40.38M cume

EXCLUSIVE EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Yes Man (Warner Bros) - $18.76M, $5,463 PTA, $18.76M cume
2. NEW – Seven Pounds (Sony) - $15.63M, $5,669 PTA, $15.63M cume
3. NEW – Tale of Despereaux (Universal) - $15.27M, $4,921 PTA, $15.27M cume
4. The Day the Earth Stood Still (Fox) - $10.07M, $2,830 PTA, $48.55M cume
5. Four Christmases (Warner Bros) - $9.49M, $2,701 PTA, $101.9M cume
6. Bolt (Disney) -$5.66M, $1,908 PTA, $96.41M cume
7. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $4.86M, $8,268 PTA, $13.85M cume
8. Twilight (Summit) - $4.83M, $1,616 PTA, $158.06M cume
9. Milk (Focus) - $2.93M, $8,237 PTA, $11.61M cume
10. Australia (Fox) - $2.59M, $1,172 PTA, $42.21M cume




Edited By MovieWes on 1229794998
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Thu Dec 18, 2008 11:41 am

Okri wrote:Mamma Mia! is now the highest grossing film in UK history, outpacing Titanic.

MAMMA MIA's boxoffice success is quite fascinating. yeah, abba is "popular" all around the world, and the musical is pretty much pure "fun" if you like sacchrine musicals...but still! the movie has made almost $428 million outside of the united states alone. that places it third in terms of highest international grosses, with only about $25 m separating it from THE DARK KNIGHT and THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL. this could easily change since MAMMA MIA has not even opened in japan yet; and while i am not sure how the japanese feel about abba, they seem to like musicals -- $27 m for CHICAGO and $16 m for DREAMGIRLS.

in sweden MAMMA MIA made $24 m, which is impressive since the next two biggest films this year were QUANTUM OF SOLACE with $8 m and THE DARK KNIGHT with $7 m.

i am surprised the film did not do better in australia, since i first learned about abba from watching australian films. THE DARK KNIGHT made the most there with $39 m, and MAMMA MIA came next with $29 m. however, THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL, SEX AND THE CITY, and KUNG FU PANDA were all only a couple million dollars behind, so the musical clearly did not impress all that much.
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Postby Okri » Wed Dec 17, 2008 9:55 pm

Mamma Mia! is now the highest grossing film in UK history, outpacing Titanic.

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Postby MovieWes » Tue Dec 16, 2008 7:15 pm

Yeah, Role Models got better reviews than many of the other big holiday releases such as Quantum of Solace and Twilight.
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Postby OscarGuy » Tue Dec 16, 2008 5:50 pm

Movies are, to many, a form of escapism, which means they go to get away from their lives. That small bit of money is their only form of entertainment sometimes as sitting at home often feels like a waste of time when one has the day or the weekend off.

As for Role Models, that film actually got some solid reviews. Nothing earth shattering or anything, but it certainly shouldn't be lumped into a group with Four Christmases or Step Brothers.
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Tue Dec 16, 2008 5:40 pm

OscarGuy wrote:I think the failure at the box office also has something to do with how terrible the film looks in the preview. It looked horrid...I couldn't have imagined anyone wanting to see it, let alone doing so.

i do not understand why people go to see most movies coming out of hollywood.

i get the appeal of big movies like THE DARK KNIGHT, IRON MAN, TROPIC THUNDER, etc., but just the low budget garbage that seems even worst than some youtube videos which end up being modest hits just saddens me -- ROLE MODELS, FOUR CHRISTMASES, STEP BROTHERS, etc.

do all the smart people just not go to movies? how can people supposedly be losing their home and not have enough money for food, yet they can put down $10, plus snacks and gas money, weekend after weekend for just unmitigated crap? it is so bizarre.
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