2009 box-office Predix - Why not?

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Postby Sonic Youth » Sun May 24, 2009 10:27 pm

OscarGuy wrote:Unless things change tomorrow, the biggest shock of the year for me will be Terminator Salvation coming in SECOND at the box office to Night at the Museum 2. I'm astounded.

Really? No Cameron, no Schwarzenegger, a 34% on Rotten Tomatoes, a half-dozen years since the last Terminator film, 18 years since the last GOOD Terminator film, a direct-to-video worthy title, and a dwindling fanbase growing older and more disillusioned as they see what the new producers are doing to their beloved franchise.

At least fans of the original, 2 1/2 year old "Museum" film knew the sequel would offer more of exactly-the-same.
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Postby Zahveed » Sun May 24, 2009 9:13 pm

Terminator also had free previews on the military bases the weekend prior, which I doubt took that much business away.
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Postby OscarGuy » Sun May 24, 2009 8:15 pm

Terminator's Thursday preview won't count into the weekend numbers at all.

Night at the Museum wins the 3-day and is likely to carry through for the 4-day holiday weekend, but we'll have to wait until tomorrow afternoon.
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Postby Sabin » Sun May 24, 2009 7:57 pm

I'm so fucking confused. Which shitty sequel won this weekend?
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Sun May 24, 2009 7:24 pm

OscarGuy wrote:Unless things change tomorrow, the biggest shock of the year for me will be Terminator Salvation coming in SECOND at the box office to Night at the Museum 2. I'm astounded.

NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM 2 made $53 million from Friday to Sunday while TERMINATOR SALVATION made $43 million. However, TERMINATOR SALVATION also has Thursday so its total is really $56 million.

I still say it is fucking stupid of them to cram all these blockbusters together. They just cannibalize each other.




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Postby OscarGuy » Sun May 24, 2009 3:19 pm

Unless things change tomorrow, the biggest shock of the year for me will be Terminator Salvation coming in SECOND at the box office to Night at the Museum 2. I'm astounded.
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Postby Greg » Thu Apr 23, 2009 3:43 pm

Monsters,’ ‘Furious’ Chases Help Studios Buck Slump

By Michael White

April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Hollywood is heading toward its first $10 billion year at the box office, scoring with moviegoers during the recession by pulling films from the crowded summer schedule and releasing them in theaters earlier.

Ticket sales this year have gained 17 percent, according to Media By Numbers LLC, an industry researcher. Five movies have topped $100 million in sales, compared with one a year earlier, according to Box Office Mojo LLC, a competing tracking service.

The result is the fastest growth since 2002, according to Box Office Mojo, which puts this year’s gain at 14 percent. Films such as “Monsters vs. Aliens” are convincing studios the first quarter has more revenue potential, and may explain why ticket sales are increasing when U.S. joblessness is at a 25- year high.

“It’s great news when pictures like ‘Mall Cop,’ ‘Taken’ or ‘Fast & Furious’ work” outside summer and Christmas months, Jeff Blake, vice chairman of Sony Pictures Entertainment, said in an interview. Studios are looking to “put pictures in other months of the year.”

“Monsters vs. Aliens,” the 3-D comedy from DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc., is the top 2009 film with $164.8 million in sales as of yesterday, according to Burbank, California-based Box Office Mojo. The movie, about monsters protecting Earth from aliens, was originally set for late May and was moved to avoid competing with James Cameron’s “Avatar.”

Three previous “Fast & Furious” street-racing films from General Electric Co.’s Universal Pictures were summer releases.

Movie Slates

Based on the success of the comedy “Paul Blart: Mall Cop,” which has taken in $144.7 million in U.S. theaters, Sony rescheduled an Adam Sandler comedy for March 2010.

“It’s really what otherwise would have been a summer comedy,” Blake said.

News Corp.’s Fox, whose suspense thriller “Taken” with Liam Neeson has generated U.S. sales of $142.2 million since Jan. 30, moved “The Tooth Fairy,” starring Dwayne Johnson, to January 2010 from November 2009. “Date Night,” with Steve Carell and Tina Fey, opens in April 2010, and “Percy Jackson,” starring Uma Thurman and Pierce Brosnan, is set for February, according to Gregg Brilliant, a studio spokesman.

“When we get into tough economic times this industry has shown the ability to be very resilient,” Michael Campbell, chief executive officer of Regal Entertainment Group, the world’s largest theater chain with 6,782 screens, said in an interview. “I’m not going to say any industry is recession proof, but we’re certainly recession resilient.”

Good Times, Bad Times

From the Depression on, Hollywood has a mixed record coping with economic slumps, doing well in years when there’s a strong slate of pictures and stumbling other times.

Americans at first flocked to theaters after the 1929 stock market crash triggered America’s worst depression. Ultimately, the sinking economy took Hollywood with it as average weekly admissions plunged by a third over two years to 60 million in 1932 from 90 million in 1930, according to Media By Numbers. Fox Film Corp., Paramount Pictures Corp. and RKO Radio Pictures Inc. filed for bankruptcy. Warner Bros. had to sell assets, according to the Schirmer Encyclopedia of Film.

“The bottom fell out of the movie business,” Leonard Maltin, a film critic and historian, said in an e-mail.

Ticket sales also fell in 1949, 1953 and 1957, the first three recessions after World War II. Revenue declined again in 1980 and 1991, both years the economy slumped.

Sony Corp., based in Tokyo, gained 35 cents to $25.88 at 4:01 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. New York-based News Corp. fell 11 cents to $7.67 and Regal, based in Knoxville, Tennessee, rose 23 cents to $14.07.

Fond Memories

Sales are showing the same strength in the current recession that they demonstrated in the 1973-75 and 1981-82 slumps, the two longest since World War II.

Attendance has increased 15 percent through April 19, according to Media By Numbers. Ticket sales this year may reach $10 billion, estimates the Los Angeles-based researcher’s president, Paul Dergarabedian.

Many of today’s studio executives came of age in the 1970s and 1980s. U.S. box-office revenue rose 25 percent in 1974, during the Arab oil embargo, and another 11 percent in 1975, years that included “Blazing Saddles,” “Godfather II” and “Jaws,” the all-time leader in its day. Revenue jumped 7.7 percent in 1981, when “Raiders of the Lost Ark” was released, and 16 percent the next year, led by another all-time leader, “E.T.: The Extra Terrestrial.”

Technological Boost

A more severe or extended economic slump may make it hard for Hollywood to continue the winning streak, Jan-Christopher Horak, a film professor at the University of California-Los Angeles, said in an interview.

People have more at-home entertainment options, including the Internet, cable television and video games, Horak said.

There are parallels to 1929, including the use of technology to bring in audiences, as Hollywood did with the first talking pictures back then. Studios are releasing more than a dozen 3-D films this year, charging higher prices for an experience that can’t be duplicated at home.

Studio executives are aware the current surge may not last.

“If anyone has champagne, let’s keep it corked for now,” Jim Gianopulos, co-chairman of News Corp.’s Fox Film Entertainment, told an exhibitor conference in Las Vegas in March. “Obviously the economic downturn is quite serious and will affect every aspect of business.”


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps....er=muse

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Postby rolotomasi99 » Sun Apr 12, 2009 1:51 pm

Franz Ferdinand wrote:What does everyone think of "Fast & Furious"' hyper-awesome $71M debut numbers? We've seen it before, and this won't be the last time, but....What. Were. You. Thinking. America??

well, the second weekend numbers were terrible. $27.2 million from $70.9 m is a 61.6% drop. that is pretty bad, even for an action flick like this. at this rate, the full run might be only $155 m. the first one made $144 m back in 2001, so while this fourth one will be the highest grosser it is not that impressive...especially when you compare the budget for the first one ($38 m) and the latest one ($85 m).

i hear the are already set to make a fifth one, set in south america this time. it will probably be called FAST/FURIOUS or something.




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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Thu Apr 09, 2009 7:32 pm

What does everyone think of "Fast & Furious"' hyper-awesome $71M debut numbers? We've seen it before, and this won't be the last time, but....What. Were. You. Thinking. America??

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Postby Zahveed » Fri Apr 03, 2009 6:51 pm

I'm going to do the same.

NEW:
1. The Half-Blood Prince
2. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
3. Terminator Salvation
4. Avatar
5. X Men Origins: Wolverine
6. Up
7. Disney's A Christmas Carol
8. Star Trek
9. Ice Age 3
10. Where The Wild Things Are

OLD:
1. The Half-Blood Prince
2. Watchmen
3. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
4. Terminator Salvation
5. X Men Origins: Wolverine
6. Avatar
7. Angels and Demons
8. Disney's A Christmas Carol
9. Star Trek
10. Up
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Postby rolotomasi99 » Fri Apr 03, 2009 4:43 pm

well, with THE WATCHMEN being the first official flop of 2009 and WOLVERINE bound to suffer due to the dvd leak, i am readjusting my box-office predictions.

new top ten:
1) The Half-Blood Prince -- $360
2) Transformers 2 -- $350
3) Terminator Salvation -- $275
4) Up -- $240
5) Star Trek -- $230
6) New Moon -- $220
7) Angels & Demons -- $210
8) Avatar -- $200
9) Ice Age 3 -- $180
10) Wolverine -- $175

old top nine:
1) The Half-Blood Prince -- $360
2) Transformers 2 -- $350
3) Watchmen -- $300
4) Wolverine -- $275
5) Terminator Salvation -- $250
6) Up -- $230
7) Angels & Demons -- $210
8) Avatar -- $200
9) Star Trek -- $180
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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Sat Mar 14, 2009 6:25 pm

Watchmen crumbled 78% from its last Friday gross. A little bit of an inflated number, but it should not expect anything better than a 60% drop and cries of "BOMB".

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Postby Greg » Thu Mar 12, 2009 7:58 pm

Box office booms in 'off' season
2009 releases earning big, but why?

By PAMELA MCCLINTOCK

Domestic B.O. for January and February was up 13%. Admissions rose nearly 10%. With a slew of high-profile projects set to open in the next two months, Hollywood hopes to maintain this torrid pace.
But the studios' good fortune comes with vexing questions: Why is this happening, and how on earth do they keep it up?

The past few weeks have been full of theories as to why the public has taken an interest in the normally dormant early months of the year. The most frequent explanation is that a recession-weary populace has been anxious for an escape. But there's also the fact that studios, flush with product from the days when hedge fund money flowed into Hollywood, just needed a place to put their movies -- and audiences welcomed the product.

In the past four years, private equity money flowed into Hollywood, creating a surplus of movies and forcing studios to rethink their long-established release patterns.

It has required Hollywood to start something it had previously paid lip service to: a genuine year-round calendar, where high-profile releases are dispatched on weekends that used to be box office dumping grounds.

Traditionally, studios have saved their heavyweight titles for Easter, summer and year-end holidays.

Partly this is due to timidity -- with huge sums of money riding on a film, you have to play it safe -- and partly it's because talent always insisted on long-established key opening dates.

But with an overcrowded release schedule, studios have begun launching more prominent films in off-peak months, and audiences have responded with enthusiasm.

For the first time ever, three films -- Warners' "Gran Torino," Sony's "Paul Blart Mall Cop" and 20th Century Fox's "Taken" -- made more than $100 million between Jan. 1 and Feb. 28. Fox Searchlight's "Slumdog Millionaire" nearly hit that mark, and its overseas tallies sent it soaring past $200 million.

While conventional wisdom says showbiz is recession-proof, many doubted whether the current economic crash would lead to a surge in moviegoing, because audiences have so many other entertainment options.

Studios hope that the increased filmgoing will maintain its momentum.

"You are going to have a lot of goodwill built upon on the part of moviegoers," said Disney prexy of domestic distribution Chuck Viane. "It also means more people are seeing trailers for summer films."

But before you think that the studios have found the formula for a year-round box office nirvana, consider this: The fiscal crunch has slowed up hedge-pics, and the 2008 WGA strike, along with fears of a SAG walkout, have severely slowed production. That means next year's slate may be underpopulated.

So Hollywood will have to confront the fact it may have created its own speed bump for the fast-moving B.O. buildup.

Moreover, the idea of a year-round box office will be tested further in the near term, as studios release a spate of films in the coming months that approach the level of summer blockbusters.

"The audience has gotten into the rhythm of going to the movies. There's been a constant flow of attractive product since Christmas," Paramount co-chair Rob Moore says.

Hot on the heels of the March 6 bow of Zack Snyder's "Watchmen," there are Dwayne Johnson family pic "Race to Witch Mountain" (March 13), Julia Roberts-Clive Owen starrer "Duplicity" (March 20), DreamWorks Animation's "Monsters vs. Aliens" (March 27), "Hannah Montana: The Movie" (April 10), and "State of Play" (April 17).

Over the decades, there have been plenty of winter and spring hit pics, but Hollywood usually dismissed them as flukes. There's never been this sort of sustained winning streak. Films are seeing huge multiples, since they have less competition than they would in summer.

Partly the studios have been emboldened by the success of other pics in off-peak slots.

Warner Bros.' "300," which looked an awful lot like a summer tentpole, debuted in early March 2006 to $70 million, with a domestic cume of $210.6 million and $456.1 million worldwide -- the biggest number ever for a March pic. Last year, Warners went for it again, opening Roland Emmerich's "10,000 B.C." the same weekend in March. The pic cumed $94.8 million domestically and $269.8 million worldwide.

This year, studio opened Snyder's "Watchmen" in the same frame.

In January, Twentieth Century Fox caught the competish off-guard by opening "Taken" over Super Bowl weekend. No one had ever dared open a male-driven actioner on that date. Yet it worked.

"Now, every studio is going to look at Super Bowl weekend differently," one exec says.

Fifteen years ago, summer box office began post-Memorial Day. Now, the season begins the first weekend in May.

Last year, when Jeffrey Katzenberg announced Paramount would release the 3-D "Monsters vs. Aliens" on March 27, he quipped that summer now begins the end of March.

Katzenberg's hand was forced to some degree. "Monsters" was scheduled to open in May, but then Fox dated James Cameron's 3-D "Avatar" for the same month, meaning too few 3-D screens for one of the films. (Fox subsequently pushed "Avatar" back to December.")

There's a huge silver lining to the move: "Monsters" gets out of the way of Fox's family pic "Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian," which opens May 22.

Fox helped pioneer the spring toon-tentpole with the "Ice Age" duo and last year's "Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who." The three films respectively cumed $195 million, $176.4 million and $154.2 million domestically.

Universal prexy of distribution Nikki Rocco has been a longtime proponent of a year-round calendar. She has no misgivings about the studio's decision to move the release of "Fast and Furious 4" from June 12 to April 4.

"Why not? With a sequel that's a built-in franchise, it gives you playability that the summer doesn't afford because it's such a crowded marketplace," Rocco says.

U also opted to debut Russell Crowe-Ben Affleck-Rachel McAdams topliner "State of Play" on April 17.

One exec maintains that a key remaining challenge is convincing filmmakers and talent that it can be a good thing to avoid summer. "Part of the issue is perception. Talent thinks that a studio doesn't believe in their movies."

Last year, Disney had a blockbuster hit with the 3-D limited run "Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour," which opened to $31.1 million in early February on its way to $65.3 million domestically.

This year, Disney followed with "Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience," which had a solid, but unspectacular, opening of $12.5 million over the Feb. 27-March 1 weekend. The Mouse House opens "Hannah Montana: The Movie" on April 10. The studio also has "Race to Witch Mountain."


http://www.variety.com/article....13&cs=1

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Postby Franz Ferdinand » Sun Mar 08, 2009 6:54 pm

A prediction of $55.7M. I will go out on a limb and say it will be even lower tomorrow - possibly as low as $53M. Bring on the massive second weekend drop and "disappointment" tag!

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Postby Sabin » Sat Mar 07, 2009 8:53 pm

You've got the "load" part right...
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