2009 box-office Predix - Why not?

[Franz Ferdinand]

Avatar defies the "slow box office day" of New Year's Eve by grossing $14.9M, nearly $3M more than it made on Christmas Eve. It now stands at $283.8M, passing The Hangover for fifth on 2009's list, and The Matrix Reloaded for #40 on the all-time domestic list. I think it will have a $60M weekend, and earn the title of Unbelievable.

Has James Cameron made any public statements on Avatar's box office performance?

[MovieWes]

In other news, the biggest box-office stars of 2009 were...

1) Zoe Saldana ("Avatar" and "Star Trek") - $526,616,093
2) Zach Galifianakis ("The Hangover", "G-Force", and "Up in the Air") - $427,591,273
3) Helena Bonham Carter ("Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" and "Terminator Salvation") - $427,281,666
4) Michelle Rodriguez ("Avatar" and "Fast and Furious") - $423,950,339
5) Sam Worthington ("Avatar" and "Terminator Salvation") - $394,208,543
6) Sandra Bullock ("The Blind Side", "The Proposal", and "All About Steve") - $390,782,934
7) Anton Yelchin ("Star Trek" and "Terminator Salvation") - $383,052,488
Eric Bana ("Star Trek", "The Time Traveler's Wife", and "Funny People") - $372,999,910
9) Ryan Reynolds ("X-Men Origins: Wolverine", "The Proposal", and "Adventureland") - $359,885,213

Plus the cast of "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen." Megan Fox attracted $418,316,663 worth of moviegoers.



Edited By MovieWes on 1262294429

[MovieWes]

Another $18.4 million on Wednesday. If it keeps this up, Titanic might finally be surpassed. If that happens, I guess it's only fitting that James Cameron was the one to orchestrate its defeat.

[Franz Ferdinand]

Spider-Man's third weekend record of $45M is about to be soundly beaten. I'm hoping to finally see it on New Year's Day. In IMAX 3D of course

[matthew]

It just made $18,290,628 on its second Tuesday, which is 13.7% higher than its first Tuesday. It looks like it is going to make more money in its second full week than its first!

[dreaMaker]

Avatar has just outgrossed The Dark Knight overseas and sits at $726,612,776 worldwide in just 12 days. It should be over $1 billion by Monday. Absolutely phenomenal.

totally amazing!!!

[MovieWes]

Avatar has just outgrossed The Dark Knight overseas and sits at $726,612,776 worldwide in just 12 days. It should be over $1 billion by Monday. Absolutely phenomenal.

[Hollywood Z]

Or, let's hope more along the lines of RoboCop 3 and Batman & Robin.

[MovieWes]

Well, I don't see Transformers 3 being a complete flop. It will probably gross over $300 million. I just think it will be like the drop-off similar to Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, Shrek the Third, and Attack of the Clones.



Edited By MovieWes on 1262125875

[rolotomasi99]

No, Transformers 2 made so much money because the first film was very popular. Transformers 3 won't make nearly as much money.

Also, Transformers 2 didn't drop 1.8% from its first weekend to its second weekend. It dropped 61.2%. After blockbuster opening weekends like Avatar had, movies typically drop 30-50% in their second weekends. We haven't witnessed a drop like the one for Avatar since Titanic.

I think the fact that not everyone was able to see AVATAR its first weekend certainly helped its second weekend.

Also, unlike summer, when fanboys have several films to choose from every weekend, AVATAR really is the only big f/x film playing wide right now. This certainly encourages them to see it twice in the first few weekends rather than waiting until later.

I certainly would be much happier with AVATAR as the number 1 film of the year than TRANSFORMERS 2, but it seems odd to say the box-office success of one f/x film is proof of its high quality while the box-office success of another f/x film was just the result of mindless action-film junkies.

As for your predictions for TRANSFORMERS 3, nothing would make me happier.

[MovieWes]

Yes he did; a devil called "3-D". It helps explain a lot of these box office numbers. $4 extra each ticket to see it in 3-D hereabouts; more still to see it in IMAX.

The film's quality and word-of-mouth still wins this argument. They could charge $30 a ticket, but if the movie is no good, or if people didn't like it, they wouldn't see it again or recommend it. No doubt the inflated prices help Avatar to such lofty numbers, but the word-of-mouth is the true fuel of this movie's receipts.

So it was high quality and word of mouth that earned TRANSFORMERS 2 so much money? ???

No, Transformers 2 made so much money because the first film was very popular. Transformers 3 won't make nearly as much money.

Also, Transformers 2 didn't drop 1.8% from its first weekend to its second weekend. It dropped 61.2%. After blockbuster opening weekends like Avatar had, movies typically drop 30-50% in their second weekends. We haven't witnessed a drop like the one for Avatar since Titanic.

[rolotomasi99]

Did James Cameron make a pact with the devil or something?

Yes he did; a devil called "3-D". It helps explain a lot of these box office numbers. $4 extra each ticket to see it in 3-D hereabouts; more still to see it in IMAX.

The film's quality and word-of-mouth still wins this argument. They could charge $30 a ticket, but if the movie is no good, or if people didn't like it, they wouldn't see it again or recommend it. No doubt the inflated prices help Avatar to such lofty numbers, but the word-of-mouth is the true fuel of this movie's receipts.

So it was high quality and word of mouth that earned TRANSFORMERS 2 so much money? ???

I am very happy for AVATAR's success, but I have to agree that the huge numbers are in large part to the extra cost from 3-D and Imax tickets.

From the $75 m AVATAR made in its second weekend, $57.9 m came from 3-D tickets and $8.8 m from Imax.

If you added $4 to even just half of every ticket THE DARK KNIGHT sold, it would have easily passed $600 m.

[Franz Ferdinand]

Did James Cameron make a pact with the devil or something?

Yes he did; a devil called "3-D". It helps explain a lot of these box office numbers. $4 extra each ticket to see it in 3-D hereabouts; more still to see it in IMAX.

The film's quality and word-of-mouth still wins this argument. They could charge $30 a ticket, but if the movie is no good, or if people didn't like it, they wouldn't see it again or recommend it. No doubt the inflated prices help Avatar to such lofty numbers, but the word-of-mouth is the true fuel of this movie's receipts.

[rain Bard]

Did James Cameron make a pact with the devil or something?

Yes he did; a devil called "3-D". It helps explain a lot of these box office numbers. $4 extra each ticket to see it in 3-D hereabouts; more still to see it in IMAX.

[rolotomasi99]

Well, the recession may have sucked for everyone else, but it has been golden for Hollywood. With less money to spend on expensive vacations or big nights out, the cinema has been the cheapest way for families and friends to be entertained. 2009 is the first year the total domestic box-offic has passed $10 billion, and will probably end with around $10.5 billion.

12 films in 2009 which made more than $100 m were released outside of the four months of cinema summer, with ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS, SHERLOCK HOLMES, and IT'S COMPLICATED sure to follow, bringing the number to 15. That is up from the 12 in 2008 and 2007, and 8 and 9 in 2006 and 2005 respectively.

What is even more incredible is how much those films have made in their first couple of weeks, as opposed to the slower runs of past non-summer films. Just this year alone saw two of the biggest first two weeks from films released in November and December, with NEW MOON making $233 m in 11 days and AVATAR making $232 m in the same amount of time.

2010 seems to have even more more possible non-summer blockbusters. At least 12 films will be released pre and post summer which have a very good shot at making more than a $100 m, not counting the surprise successes which are bound to happen. At least four of those films have the potential to make more than $200 m, and the new Harry Potter could easily make more than $300 m.

Then of course you have the several huge summer films which will probably allow for the biggest summer ever. $11 billion for 2010 is an amazing possibility.