2009 box-office Predix - Why not?

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Postby Greg » Sun Jan 31, 2010 4:41 pm

Greg wrote:I'm guessing Avatar top $2 billion worldwide.

It did so this weekend.
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Postby Sabin » Tue Jan 26, 2010 4:44 pm

Now if only people would stop trying to measure newborn penises against 12-year-old penises and try comparing the penises as if they were the same age I'd be less annoyed by these whole stupid box office record things.

I could be mistaken but I don't think the word "penises" has ever been used three times in the same sentences. On the one hand, it's a little awkwardly phrased, but on the other hand I don't know how to rephrase it so that one could still shoehorn "penises" three times into the same sentence.

Let me try:

"I'd be less annoyed by these whole stupid box office record things if people would stop trying to measure newborn penises against 12 year-old penises and try comparing the penises as if they were the same age."

You see, this way you have no idea that you're going to hear the word "penises" three times in the same sentence! And:

"...especially when there's a 70 year-old penis that's bigger than all of them!"

Call up, Guinness. We have a record.
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Postby OscarGuy » Tue Jan 26, 2010 1:41 pm

What's more interesting, dws, is that there's a 70-year-old penis that's bigger than both of them. :)



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Postby Damien » Tue Jan 26, 2010 12:45 pm

dws1982 wrote:Interesting analogy, there, OG.

LOL!
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And you also have to take into consideration show-ers vs. grow-ers. :D
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Postby dws1982 » Tue Jan 26, 2010 12:27 pm

Interesting analogy, there, OG.

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Postby OscarGuy » Tue Jan 26, 2010 12:13 pm

Oh yay...Avatar beat a 12-year-old record with ticket prices higher than they were and on 3-D screens which further increases ticket prices. It's such an achievement.

Now if only people would stop trying to measure newborn penises against 12-year-old penises and try comparing the penises as if they were the same age I'd be less annoyed by these whole stupid box office record things.




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Postby jack » Tue Jan 26, 2010 10:45 am

From the Gaurdian:


It's official: Avatar sinks Titanic's record

James Cameron trumps James Cameron for the title of king of the all-time box-office record
by Ben Child


In the end, the only man capable of defeating James Cameron was James Cameron. Titanic, the film-maker's epic 1997 romance set on the doomed ocean liner, yesterday lost its crown as the top grossing movie of all time to Avatar, an epic 3D romance set on an Earth-like moon orbiting a distant star.

The science-fiction saga almost overtook its predecessor's record of $1.843bn at the weekend, after six weeks topping box-office charts around the globe. Twentieth Century Fox confirmed yesterday that the record had finally been broken.

Many pundits had predicted Titanic's record would never be beaten. Yet, early in Avatar's run it was clear it was repeating the pattern of multiple repeat viewings that had been the making of Cameron's previous film. Avatar also benefited from the higher price of tickets for 3D screenings, which have accounted for more than 80% of US earnings and 65% of those elsewhere. The film was so successfully hyped as the first must-see stereoscopic experience that few wanted to compromise with a 2D viewing. In addition, its record-breaking success in China and Russia, markets harder to crack back in 1997, certainly helped to lift its bottom line.

Avatar's box-office victory was, however, won without adjustment for inflation. Figures that do so show how far it's eclipsed by the likes of 1939's Gone With the Wind – that film grossed $400m worldwide, which equates to at least $6bn in today's money, more than three times Avatar's figure.

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Postby jack » Fri Jan 15, 2010 11:18 am

The $850 million prediction was a bit out there, but I do believe that it will beat Titanic - Avatar, that is. Not by much, though.

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Postby MovieWes » Fri Jan 15, 2010 10:51 am

--rolotomasi99 wrote:
--MovieWes wrote:I think that the furthest The Dark Knight can possibly go (and this is as liberal as possible) is no more than $560 million, but honestly I believe that it won't make more than $510 million. Titanic is at least safe for now.

That said, there are two other films on the horizon that I think could pose a possible threat to Titanic. The first is next Christmas's big release Avatar, which just happens to be James Cameron's first feature since Titanic, and which is said to have the most photo-realistic visual effects ever committed to film (and it's also going to be in 3-D, so people are going to want to see it in the theater). If the script and acting are great, then I believe it could gross as much as $850 million.

The second is The Hobbit in December 2011, which I think will gross between $650-700 million. After all, The Phantom Menace grossed an inflation adjusted total of $600 million and The Hobbit is going to be every bit as anticipated as that film was.

???

"the most photo-realistic visual effects ever committed to film." where have i heard that compliment before. oh, right! the FINAL FANTASY film. considered one of the biggest bombs in box office history.
great f/x may help a film have a huge opening, but are not enough to keep a movie going. THE DARK KNIGHT has hardly any big f/x scenes, and yet it is beating the pants off of all the other f/x heavy films of this year.
the other sentence which i found odd was, "If the script and acting are great..." uh, i love james cameron as much as the next fanboy, but since when have his movies been known for great scripts or acting? despite all its nominations, the writers refused to recognize TITANIC for its screenplay.

i think the biggest stumbling block for AVATAR (in addition to its horrible title) is the fact that it is an unkown commodity. almost all the films in the box office top ten are either sequels or adapted from a popular comic book character. only the first STAR WARS, ET, and TITANIC where original films. ET was released at the apex of spielberg's popularity, so he was the known commodity. TITANIC was the "perfect" film, being able to attract every demographic of filmgoer, faced no competition, and received a huge boost from its oscar triumph. STAR WARS is the only film in the top ten to come out of nowhere to become a blockbuster. the STAR WARS films are also the only movies in the box office top twenty to take place in outer space, as AVATAR does.

sure, james cameron's name alone will get some people excited, but outside of fanboy and movie websites most people are not familiar with his name. the more than 10 year span since TITANIC has left james cameron without the cache to open a film on his celebrity alone. i think AVATAR will make $300 million at the most.

as for THE HOBBIT, since warner bros decided to split one perfectly good book into two movies, as well as THE DEATHLY HOLLOWS, i am praying to the movie gods to punish the greedy studio. just like THE PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN sequels and THE MATRIX sequels (also warner bros), the executives are taking one movie's worth of a story and stretching it out to two movies so they can rake in as much cash as possible. i know some believe THE HOBBIT should/could be adapted into three movies, but the story is one book for a reason. it is not epic like THE LORD OF THE RINGS trilogy. it reads more like a travelogue, with amusing side stories and fastidious descriptions of meals and such.

the same goes for THE DEATHLY HOLLOWS. it is not necessary to stretch that book into a five hour movie split in two.

i think audiences will pick up on the studio fucking with them just like they did with THE PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN and THE MATRIX sequels where the second sequel did far less than the first...or at least i hope so. warner bros deserves to be punished for its arrogance and greed. hopefully audiences agree. :angry: :p

Well, I was using the first Star Wars film and Titanic as the precendent for this statement. From everything I've read and heard about the film, it's going to be like nothing anyone has ever seen before, which one of the reasons why both of those films achieved such astronomical box-office receipts. And the fact that Avatar is going to be completely 3-D (there isn't going to be a traditional 2-D print for this film), it's not the type of film that people are going to want to wait to see on DVD. In fact, I've heard that it's not really the type of movie that would play well on any home theater system (or, at the very least, will lose much of its impact when it makes the jump to DVD).

The fact is, you can almost get the big-screen experience now with all the home theater technology that we have nowadays, which is why we aren't seeing huge grosses like Titanic and Star Wars anymore (both of those films would gross between $900 million and $1 billion at today's ticket prices). And Avatar is going to be one of those movies that is going to change the way movies are watched, much like the introduction of Cinemascope in the '50s (this alone will make the film almost impossible to pirate). That's why I think it's going to be huge.


I hate to bring this back up a year and a half after this post was made, but would it offend anyone if I gloated for a little bit? This doesn't happen often (although my prediction of $850 million clearly isn't going to happen). :p

Now let's see how big The Hobbit is going to be.




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Postby Zahveed » Thu Jan 07, 2010 2:47 pm

By the way:

Avatar Becomes the #2 Film of All Time!
Source:erc BoxOffice January 7, 2010


James Cameron's Avatar became the second-highest grossing film worldwide of all time on Wednesday, its 20th day in theaters.

Domestically, the blockbuster added $6.91 million to push its total to $374.4 million. The film has climbed to the 12th spot on the all-time domestic list, surpassing Spider-Man 2 ($373.6 million).

Internationally, Avatar has earned $760.9 million.

The combined worldwide total stands at $1,135,383,229, which surpasses The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King's $1,119,110,941. The movie now only trails Cameron's own #1 global blockbuster Titanic, which earned $1,842,879,955.
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Postby Sabin » Tue Jan 05, 2010 3:09 am

Just pointing out that the hyperbole around Cameron's film is not quite as big as some would like to think it is...

It/he is.
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Postby matthew » Mon Jan 04, 2010 7:11 pm

Sabin wrote:
Spielberg still shits on Cameron as far as the popularity of his films go in North America. Adjusted, Cameron has only 2 films (soon to be 3) in the top 100 of all time (in today's dollars)

Oh, calm down! Cameron's going to have three films in the all-time high-grossers club compared to Spielberg's eight. That makes him a colleague, not somebody Spielberg is shitting on in any way shape or form.

I'm quite calm...zen-like in fact.

Just pointing out that the hyperbole around Cameron's film is not quite as big as some would like to think it is...

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Postby dreaMaker » Mon Jan 04, 2010 2:58 pm

Sabin wrote:
Spielberg still shits on Cameron as far as the popularity of his films go in North America. Adjusted, Cameron has only 2 films (soon to be 3) in the top 100 of all time (in today's dollars)

Oh, calm down! Cameron's going to have three films in the all-time high-grossers club compared to Spielberg's eight. That makes him a colleague, not somebody Spielberg is shitting on in any way shape or form.

Exactly.. Besides the fact Spielberg made 25 movies and Cameron only 8.

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Postby Sabin » Mon Jan 04, 2010 8:20 am

Spielberg still shits on Cameron as far as the popularity of his films go in North America. Adjusted, Cameron has only 2 films (soon to be 3) in the top 100 of all time (in today's dollars)

Oh, calm down! Cameron's going to have three films in the all-time high-grossers club compared to Spielberg's eight. That makes him a colleague, not somebody Spielberg is shitting on in any way shape or form.
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Postby OscarGuy » Mon Jan 04, 2010 7:36 am

At least it's James Cameron and not Michael Bay. That's all I'm saying.
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