Oscar, Oscar, Who'll Get the Oscar?

Okri
Tenured
Posts: 3345
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:28 pm
Location: Edmonton, AB

Post by Okri »

Some responses.

1. Lower your expectations for Up in the Air, Italiano. It's not bad, but I'm genuinely puzzled at a lot of the praise. Vera Farmiga's terrific, and George Clooney does George Clooney as well as you'd believe, but I can give you a summary, you can shut your eyes, and you can largely imagine the film. Probably with less narrative hiccups.

2. The problem with Damon in lead, Original BJ, is that the fifth slot should be emptier, ideally, for that to happen. Bridges, Clooney, Freeman and Firth have all done well enough to think of their nominations penciled in, if not written in stone. So there's that fifth slot, except Renner's done better than expected, and The Hurt Locker is doing a bang up job of the precursors (getting in places where we wouldn't think of it normally (SAG ensemble, for example). Now, if AMPAS will drop anyone, it'll be Renner, but for Damon automatically? How about Mortensen, who basically carries his film?

3. I'm seeing Avatar tomorrow. I don't really want to, but I feel like I have to.

4. Meryl Streep was nominated for Out of Africa the year of Plenty, and rules mean one or the other. Plenty would've been the better choice, but I do enjoy Out of Africa. I do feel badly about it, though.
ITALIANO
Emeritus
Posts: 4076
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2003 1:58 pm
Location: MILAN

Post by ITALIANO »

This is the situation at the moment - as I see it. I haven't seen most of the important movies, so it's really just guessing.

BEST PICTURE
I DO have seen Avatar though. And from a certain point of view I found it an enjoyable experience - it's certainly an amazing technical accomplishment. It surely deserves a certain number of Oscars - but needless to say, I wouldnt even nominate it for Best Picture. The Academy will, though (and it would even under the old five slots system). Can it win? It's true that this kind of movies usually just gets nominated, and that even Star Wars was beaten by a "little" though intelligent comedy; but that was in the 70s, and things have much changed since then. For some reason there's been recently all this subtle but neverending talk about the Academy being not "popular" enough (Bill Condon was especially vocal about this), and losing touch with what the so-called ordinary people really like etc. Absurd, of course, but this, coupled with the fact that Avatar, simplistic as it is, still has a "message", and a message which can be seen as important today, could get it a relevant number of votes. A prediction is difficult right now, even because, as others have said, the newly approved voting system for Best Picture makes predictions even more complicated; but it certainly COULD win. It wouldnt be the worse Best Picture winner ever (I personally liked Gladiator or A Beautiful Mind less), but content-wise it will certainly be, with Greatest Show on Earth and Sound of Music, one of the less profound.
The other reson why it could win is the competition, which, based on what I read on this board, looks truly weak this year.
And based of what I've seen, too. The Hurt Locker, for example. What can I say? Not a bad movie. Reasonably absorbing and definitely well shot. But, I mean, if there's a movie genre in which American filmmakers have been truly great it's the war movies, from Lewis Milestone to Terrence Malick. So after hearing all these Americans, even here, calling this movie a masterpiece of this kind, I went there expecting much, much better. The fact that this watchable but not too exciting movie is considered by so many to be one of 2009's best gives me a clear idea of this year's Oscar race, and it's not a very good one.
(But now honestly, if there's a war - and now I'm not only anti-American, but anti-Italian too - where, even by conventional Hollywoiod movie standards, we were the "bad guys", because we were objectively downright wrong, it's Iraq. How can one make a movie about this war and conveniently ignore this issue? Now dont tell me that "realistically" American soldiers wouldnt have the doubts that everyone else in the world has - and by the way I'm not so sure about that - but it's the filmmaker's approach I'm talking about. A really "great" movie about the war in Iraq CANT avoid this point, otherwise it's cheating, or at least I, as a viewer, feel cheated. All the explosions in this movie couldnt distract me; but they can, it seems, distract even the most respected American critics, and the Academy will be gladly distracted too. I will still wait for the really GREAT movie about Iraq, and I feel that one day American cinema will give it to me).
I can only hope for Up in the Air to be very good now.

BEST DIRECTOR
This is where the anti-James Cameron camp (and there is one) could prevail. With the good excuse of a history-making choice: the first woman to win Best Director. Bigelow knows how to shoot an action movie, true. She's also well connected in Hollywood, which will certainly help. But let's face it: if she wins, it's because she made a movie exactly like a man would. The other few female nominees of the past werent all better than Kathryn Bigelow, but all three (yes, even Sofia Coppola) had an approach to certain aspects of filmmaking which were personal, and maybe even related to their being women. If Bigelow wins, it will be for the opposite reason - that she is like a man, "just like us", an adolescent view of things that would be unthinkable in Europe.
So will she win? Too early to say, but in this year I can see a Best Picture/Best Director split. And again, I can only have hope in Ivan Reitman.

BEST ACTOR
The most interesting of this year's acting categories, if only because it seems to be the most potentially unpredictable. Right now I'd still say George Clooney, but if Up in the Air is really as disappointing as some here say, there's always an old, never before awarded veteran around to give an Oscar to, and Jeff Bridges is enough well liked to be the man for the job.

BEST ACTRESS
Meryl Streep will very probably win, and it will be, of course, a popular Oscar. Most will gladly ignore the simple fact that she lost for French Lieutnant's Wonan, A Cry in the Dark, and for countless other great performances (and wasnt even nominated for Plenty) and then she gets it for Julie & Julia. Nobody will complain; she deserves a third Oscar for her career, if not for her performance, which is only good. And the Academy is problably one of the very few important American film awards which havent honored this screen legend in the last 25 years; the New York film critics gave recently their seal of approval to Julie & Julia, so there can be only very few doubts now. Had Streep won last year for Doubt the girl from An Education would have some chances now; but then it would probably be Streep's fourth (rather than third) Oscar next March. They gave consecutive Oscars to Hepburn too, after all.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Cristoph Waltz, for many reasons. His is a typically showy Oscar performance (any of his scenes in Inglorious Basterds would be a perfect clip when his nomination is read in the Oscar show); it will be the only place where his obviously much liked movie will get to win; and well, there are other reasons too, but I'm sure that my friend Uri is already writing a long essay on this, so I wont steal it from him...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mo'nique, for some of the same reasons.

So now let's just hope that the Globes and the Guilds will prove me completely wrong (and it could happen) to provide some badly needed excitement in these races...




Edited By ITALIANO on 1262131781
The Original BJ
Emeritus
Posts: 4312
Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2003 8:49 pm

Post by The Original BJ »

A couple thoughts I've had over the past week:

1) Avatar as a Best Picture winner.

A couple people, both here and elsewhere, have brought that up as a genuine possibility, and I still have to lean toward "no" on that one. When I look at Oscar history -- particularly Jaws, Star Wars, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, Raiders of the Lost Ark, E.T., Beauty and the Beast, Babe, the Pixar films, The Dark Knight, et al. -- I don't really see much precedent for an Avatar victory, given the way genre films tend to not make their way up to the podium (if they get invited to the party at all).

I guess The Return of the King is the obvious exception, but to me, the fact that it took until the third film for the series to win any major Oscar category is more evidence than not of the organization's aversion to genre films. (You could CERTAINLY add Fellowship and the nomination-hobbled Two Towers to the above list.)

Then, there's the rarity of living directors with double Best Picture winners. Eastwood did it, as did Coppola (though he lost Director the first time out.) Milos Forman got lucky. Am I forgetting someone? Spielberg and Stone both came close, but their films didn't quite make it. Isn't there a real likelihood that voters feel James Cameron has been rewarded enough, particularly when he hasn't even made another film since Titanic's eleven-category sweep?

I think the ten-wide Best Picture slate is a real variable here -- we can't really know what affect that will have on things. But I think Avatar is a lot less of a major player that some. (Of course, given a race between The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air, two films I really like, it would be typical of these people to award a third option that gives me a headache.)

2) Will Oscar play the category fraud game this year? And to what extent?

Last year, Oscar rejected the Kate Winslet supporting campaign, nominating her in lead, despite all the major precursors voting otherwise. (They also rejected Dev Patel's SAG-approved supporting push, not nominating him at all.) It's interesting that at both the Globes AND the SAGs, individual voters can't choose which category to nominate an actor...but at the Oscars they CAN, which I think complicates the award hopes of a couple acting contenders.

First up, Matt Damon, ridiculously campaigned as a supporting actor for Invictus. Not only is he a lead, but, he's a BIG star, more along the lines of a Kate Winslet than a Casey Affleck. Is there a chance voters choose to recognize a character actor (like, hey...Alfred Molina!!) instead of Damon slumming?

Follow-up question...how does this affect Damon's Lead Actor push? Unlike Winslet, it seems very unlikely that Damon's Invictus performance would be bumped up to lead, both because of Freeman and because, well...IT'S COMPLETELY EMPTY. But what about his really fun turn in The Informant? I wonder if there will be any voters who don't fall for the category fraud, who'd still like to honor Damon (an actor who's built up quite a solid resume since his first brush with Oscar). Might they do so by honoring his comedic work?

Turning the attention to the ladies, both Marion Cotillard and Melanie Laurent have received lead pushes for what to me are supporting roles in ensemble films. Their costars -- Cruz and Kruger -- scored SAG nods for less-buzzed performances (in films which also scored SAG Ensemble bids). I can't really imagine either Cotillard or Laurent breaking into the lead actress race...but in a crowded supporting field, those final supporting actress spots seem like anyone's game. Might we see an appearance by one of these ladies here?

With so many precursors rubber-stamping the same names, it's interesting that these category-confused contenders seem like the most ripe to surprise, simply because the precursors maybe haven't been the best test of their strengths (Cotillard & Lauren) or weaknesses (Damon) yet.




Edited By The Original BJ on 1262136620
Damien
Laureate
Posts: 6331
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 8:43 pm
Location: New York, New York
Contact:

Post by Damien »

Big Magilla wrote:I love that title which I first saw attached to an old After Dark magazine article about the 1968 Oscar race. The article, and the magazine for that matter, are long forgotten, but the title remains etched in my brain.
But who could ever forget the magazine's piquantly-named film critic, Norma McLain Stoop?
"Y'know, that's one of the things I like about Mitt Romney. He's been consistent since he changed his mind." -- Christine O'Donnell
dreaMaker
Assistant
Posts: 596
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 1:41 pm

Post by dreaMaker »

A very good text, Peter...

I would be delighted if the winners are Meryl Streep, Jeff Bridges, Vera Farmiga and Christoph Waltz.
mlrg
Associate
Posts: 1747
Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 11:19 am
Location: Lisbon, Portugal

Post by mlrg »

I would say Waltz is the only sure thing for a win at this point.

It really is a strange year, though.
User avatar
Precious Doll
Emeritus
Posts: 4453
Joined: Mon Jan 13, 2003 2:20 am
Location: Sydney
Contact:

Post by Precious Doll »

If I was a betting man I would at this point be saying Bridges & Streep for lead. No idea about the other acting and major categories though.
"I want cement covering every blade of grass in this nation! Don't we taxpayers have a voice anymore?" Peggy Gravel (Mink Stole) in John Waters' Desperate Living (1977)
Hustler
Tenured
Posts: 2914
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 1:35 pm
Location: Buenos Aires-Argentina

Post by Hustler »

Meryl will take her third trophy this edition.



Edited By Hustler on 1261999390
Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 19318
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Post by Big Magilla »

I love that title which I first saw attached to an old After Dark magazine article about the 1968 Oscar race. The article, and the magazine for that matter, are long forgotten, but the title remains etched in my brain.

It applies to this year more than ever, because for the first time ever I don't have a clue. Not of who, I can pretty much guess the who's in the top categories, but the what. No film this year is a clear front-runner and none really deserves to be.

Best Picture

When I first saw The Hurt Locker I thought this is a film that will probably end up on my top ten list, but was too austere for the Academy's short list. That was before Oscar expanded to ten and the year's big guns fizzled. Now it looks like a possible winner, but far from a certain one.

Up in the Air, if it had been about people losing their jobs as advance word indicated it was, or even about the people who have to do the laying off, it would have been topical enough to be the one to beat, but it is only marginally about layoffs. It could still win, but will not go down in Oscar history as one of the more popualr winners if it does.

Avatar's box office coupled with generally favorable reviews makes it a threat, but it is no Titanic emotionally and no one wants to see James Cameron proclaim himself "king of the world" again, so I just don't see it winning.

Inglourious Basterds could pull off the impossible, becoming the first satire to win a Best Picture Oscar, but again, I don't quite see it.

Up is a lovely film, but it's a goddamn cartoon and they have their own category.

There will five other nominees, but none of them has as much of a chance as these five.

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow has this one pretty much sewn up, and not just because it's time a woman won in this category. The Hurt Locker is the year's best directed film hands down. The question is who will the other nominees be?

Jameson Reitman (Up in the Air), James Cameron (Avatar) and Qunetin Tarentino (Inglourious Basterds) are clearly likely. The fifth nominee I would have said would be Clint Eastwood (Invictus) a week ago, but now I see the tide turning in favor of Lee Daniels (Precious).

Daniels has no sense of style, but, boy, can he direct actors. In a weak year, that may be enough.

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges wins this on career points for Crazy Heart.

George Clooney will be nominated for playing George Clooney better than he ever has in Up in the Air, but I don't see the Academy rushing to give him two Oscars in five years. But then I said the same thing about Kevin Spacey ten years ago.

Morgan Freeman will be nominated for playing Nelson Mandela in Invictus because the very idea of Morgan Freeman playing Nelson Mandela seems award worthy in and of itself. Never mind that the film doesn't give us anything new.

Colin Firth will be nominated for A Single Man because he's due for a nomination. The film, though, is more style than substance which hurts his chances for a win. Besides he'll be up against a five time nominee, four time loser in Jeff Bridges.

Jeremy Renner will most likely nab the fifth slot for The Hurt Locker, but the nomination will be considered enough.

Best Actress

I never jumped on the bandwagon that predicted an easy win for Carey Mulligan in An Education. In fact I scoffed at the idea that she was the new Audrey Hepburn. I did, however, think she would win more critics awards than she has. The fact that she hasn't makes her chances decidedly uphill at his point.

A nomination for Gabourey Sidibe in Precious seems like a forgone conclusion, but a win will be tough, though it could happen.

All year long I doubted that Meryl Streep was a certain nominee for Julie & Julia. I saw her possible nomination as a filler, but then she started winning all these critics awards which makes a win not only plausible, but likely.

As the first to predict a nomination for Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side, let me also be the first to say that now that the shock and awe of her "little" film's box office success has worn down, let me also be the first to say that her still likely nomination isn't a done deal. Someone could usurp it, but who? Probably no one, and she remains the known quanity as alternative to a win for Streep in one of her most enganing, but least taxing roles.

The fifth slot is Helen Mirren's to lose for The Last Station, but she's even more vulnerable than Bullock. Tilda Swinton (Julia) is waiting in the wings.

Best Supporting Actor

This has come down to two guys. Veteran character actor, but Hollywood newcomer, Christoph Waltz has been winning the lion's share of the critics awards for Inglourious Basterds and has the inside track, but veteran actor and Hollywood known quantity Woody Harrelson in The Messenger has been winning his share of accolades as well. Either could win.

Best Supporting Actress

Mo'Nique has this practically in the bag for Precious. She'll show up at the Globes and the SAGs and charm the pants off everyone after which stories of her not being cooperative will vanish like yesterday's headlines.

The Up in the Air gals (Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick) will be her chief competition but she doesn't have anything to worry about.
Post Reply

Return to “2009”