New Developments III

[Sabin]

Trump suggests he’s open to cuts to Medicare and Social Security after attacking primary rivals over the issue.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/11/politics ... index.html

“There is a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms of cutting and in terms of also the theft and the bad management of entitlements,”

Honestly, if the Democrats can't win against a guy who does nothing but cut ads for them, I don't know.

[Sabin]

gunnar wrote
Maybe Gavin Newsome or another Democratic Governor.

Newsome's been clearly running some kind of shadow campaign as Biden-Harris' loudest surrogates in the media circuit. I have no idea what happens if Biden decides not to run a the convention or something and leaves it up to power brokers, but I have to imagine Newsome would be seen by many as the most palatable choice. He's about to face another stupid pointless recall though.

That's nomination contest... lack of incumbency...

[Big Magilla]

If Biden resigns or dies in office before the convention in July, Harris is automatically president and the presumed 2024 candidate. If he drops out of the race before the convention and frees his delegates to vote their conscience, it will be a free-for-all with, as gunnar says, Newsome or one of the other popular governors, likely Wittmer (Michigan), Pritzker (Illinois) or possibly Beshear (Kentucky) emerging as the candidate. If he resigns or dies in office after the convention, but before the election, the party can replace him on the ballot if there is enough time. If his name remains on the ballot he can still be elected, but his vice president-elect will be sworn in as president. If he resigns or dies after the election, the same thing apples.

[gunnar]

Maybe Gavin Newsome or another Democratic Governor.

[mlrg]

If Biden wasn’t around who would be the candidate from the Democratic Party? Kamala Harris looks like an absolute non entity…

[Big Magilla]

Apparently, Barbara Lee's district is safe for Dems, but Katie Porter's is a swing district so it could be a problem.

The strategists aren't too worried about the "uncommitted" protest votes against Biden over Gaza. They expect the majority of those folks to vote for him in the general - they aren't going to vote for Trump, and they know staying home would be a vote for Trump.

The 2024 vote should mirror the 1964 election when Johnson trounced Goldwater, but somehow the world has gotten dumber since then, not smarter.

[Sabin]

danfrank wrote
FYI, Katie Porter had to give up her House seat to run for Senate, as did Barbara Lee. I did the same as you, deciding last minute to vote for Porter to have a better chance at an all-Dem slate in the general. I was surprised how poorly the two women did. No surprise that the GOP voters consolidated around Garvey. My guess is that the Dems consolidated around Schiff because they saw a winner. Schiff ran a smart race by highlighting Garvey.

What? Oh, that's fucking stupid. I didn't know that.

I saw about that campaign Garvey ran, "boosting" him. I think it's super danger to do what Schiff and Democrats do when they boost the dangerous right-winger... except every time they do it, it turns out in their favor.

Nikki Haley has withdrawn. She has 89 delegates which puts her above Elizabeth Warren's 79th for second highest delegate total for a female Presidential candidate. The leader being Hilary Clinton with 4,820. I expect that total to be overcome... never.

Finally (man, I don't want to open up a can of worms here), there's been considerable conversations in online spaces about voters choosing "Uncommitted" in protest to the President's age and his policy in the Gaza War. The primary isn't over yet but the numbers do not bear that out. Biden is performing about on par with Barack Obama in 2012 and with less fringe competition. While I would definitely consider Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips fringe, they've got nothing on John Wolfe, Jr., Darcy Richardson, Keith Russell Judd, and of course Vermin Supreme. Now that is some good ol' fashioned fringe! All of those candidates racked up higher percentage totals in states against Barack Obama than Phillips, Williamson, or Uncommitted have against Joe Biden. Also, Uncommitted is roughly the same in both elections as well.

Joe Biden is going into the election with the weirdest slate of negatives I've ever seen. "He's too old. I want someone else. I don't have a favorable opinion of him... what? No, of course I'll vote for him."

[danfrank]

FYI, Katie Porter had to give up her House seat to run for Senate, as did Barbara Lee. I did the same as you, deciding last minute to vote for Porter to have a better chance at an all-Dem slate in the general. I was surprised how poorly the two women did. No surprise that the GOP voters consolidated around Garvey. My guess is that the Dems consolidated around Schiff because they saw a winner. Schiff ran a smart race by highlighting Garvey.

[Sabin]

Well, it's going to be Adam Schiff vs. Steve Garvey. I strategically cast my vote for Katie Porter at the last moment but even if you combine Porter and Lee's votes it probably wouldn't have been enough to get past Garvey. I don't really have a problem with Adam Schiff on the whole. I just thought a Schiff vs. Porter or Schiff vs. Lee race might better serve the people of California. But now I guess all that money can go to other races. Maybe to Orange County to help Katie Porter.

So inevitable congratulations to Senator Adam Schiff. And good luck to Katie Porter on surviving another race in Orange County.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
That's the concern I have about most of the races this year.

The good news is that mail-in voting remains a thing. Also, right-wing lunacy is in full swing like I've never seen before. Every time I think we've lost, the right-wing does crazy shit like going after IVF. Wildly outside the mainstream stuff.

[Big Magilla]

Sabin wrote:
The only concern I have about Kari Lake is if Democrats just don't vote.

That's the concern I have about most of the races this year.

[Sabin]

danfrank wrote
Yes, and let’s hope that Ruben Gallego runs a strong campaign because Kari Lake would be far worse than Sinema.

I think Gallego is going to win. I'm hearing a lot about how "progressive" he is but he's not nearly as far to the left as Lake is to the right. She is the worst of all worlds. She's been to the far right on every issue and reversed all of them at some point. She's also a previous loser for governor. The only concern I have about Kari Lake is if Democrats just don't vote.

[danfrank]

Krysten Sinema has bowed out of the Senate race in Arizona. Good riddance.

Yes, and let’s hope that Ruben Gallego runs a strong campaign because Kari Lake would be far worse than Sinema.

[Sabin]

Krysten Sinema has bowed out of the Senate race in Arizona. Good riddance.

[Big Magilla]

The election results in New York and Pennsylvania special elections last Tuesday sent shock waves through the Republican Party, or what there is left of it. The New York vote reduced Republican control of the House to just two representatives. The Pennsylvania vote retained control of the State House for the Democrats.

The Trump supporters are talkers, the Biden supporters are doers.

Shame on Jon Stewart and all the rest of these talking heads for making fun of Biden's gaffes whether they compare Trump's to his or not.

Everyone misspeaks, saying a wrong word here or there, getting a name wrong, not remembering the year someone close to them died. They may not remember the date, but they don't forget the situation. And, yes, the longer you are around, the more often you will make a mistake, sometimes the same one over and over.

There are real issues at stake in this election. Let's not be distracted by inconsequential nonsense.