Campaign 2020

Sabin
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

Big Magilla wrote
We have a minimum age qualification for president, why shouldn't we have a maximum age qualification? I think it should be no more than 62 at time of election, which would mean retirement after a two-year term at 70.
So, you're telling me that in retrospect, Hillary Clinton should have been barred from running in 2016? That in retrospect, we should have nominated Martin O'Malley? I'm sorry but I don't believe you. I think we all have biases and we use them to orient our exceptions. In 2016, you would have said "Yes, 69 is too old but let's give Hillary Clinton a pass." Well, it's 2020, I agree with you that 70 is too old to be the President. I have other deal-breakers, like that a candidate be at least a two term governor or senator, but they don't seem to matter in 2020. I just want to support the candidate who will defeat Trump AND forward a progressive agenda.

NOTE: author fixed
Greg wrote
The big question is what happens with the economy. It appears that we might be moving into a recession. If we are, then how much of a downturn is it? If we are heading for a repeat of 2008, I think Sanders would be elected in a landslide.
Do you really think the economy is due for a downturn in the next year and a half?
Last edited by Sabin on Wed Apr 03, 2019 5:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

Greg wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:I would love to think that we are at a point where a progressive could win the Presidency, but I don't think we're there yet, even as an alternative to Trump.
The big question is what happens with the economy. It appears that we might be moving into a recession. If we are, then how much of a downturn is it? If we are heading for a repeat of 2008, I think Sanders would be elected in a landslide.
I think Sanders could beat Trump in any case, but he's not a sure thing.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Greg »

Big Magilla wrote:I would love to think that we are at a point where a progressive could win the Presidency, but I don't think we're there yet, even as an alternative to Trump.
The big question is what happens with the economy. It appears that we might be moving into a recession. If we are, then how much of a downturn is it? If we are heading for a repeat of 2008, I think Sanders would be elected in a landslide.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

Sabin wrote:
Big Magilla wrote
I don't believe that Sanders himself is behind a ploy to drive Biden out of the running, but I don't trust his supporters. Even more ridiculous than this first woman's "he made me uncomfortable five years ago" assertions is the second woman's "I thought he wanted to kiss me" assertion that somehow means we must vote for a woman.
Okay, well, I'm one of his supporters. You've known me for years. Should we just end this conversation? Is that all you need to know about me? Or maybe you should make a greater effort to understand where people like me are coming from. I've come of age on this board and I've always made a great effort to learn from people like you, Tee, and Damien and to a large degree your opinions have shaped the person I am today with regards to film and politics. I respect your opinions and your beliefs, but you say you're not in a camp and I think you just revealed that you are.
I should have said "some of" his supporters, but my comment was in reference to the first woman. The second one is clearly not a Sanders supporter. She wants a woman, and only a woman, to be the next President.

I would love to think that we are at a point where a progressive could win the Presidency, but I don't think we're there yet, even as an alternative to Trump. Going after the only Democrat who, as of now, could beat him in a walk, is not the way to go.

Personally, I don't think Biden, Sanders, Trump or anyone else over 70 should be running for President. Older politicians can and should act as elder statesmen and advisors to presidents, but they shouldn't be the one in charge in my book. Sanders and Biden were both born before the last four presidents - Clinton, Bush, Obama and even Trump are younger.

We have a minimum age qualification for president, why shouldn't we have a maximum age qualification? I think it should be no more than 62 at time of election, which would mean retirement after a two-year term at 70.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

Big Magilla wrote
If you truly support the Me-Too movement you must reject this kind of absurdity which just cheapens it and will eventually result in blowing it up if we can't tell the difference between sexual predators, grossly inappropriate behavior and mildly annoying behavior which has never been appropriate, though tolerated. It shouldn't be tolerated, but it shouldn't be cause for burning at the stake, either.
She never accused him of being a sexual predator. She agrees with you. In fact, neither accuser have called him a sexual predator. They have only accused him of inappropriate behavior -- their only disagreement is that really they have the right to say whether or not it is "mildly annoying." The only people who have brought up "sexual predators" are people on the news putting words in their mouths asking if the Me Too movement has gone too far.

But let's be real: the only person burning Joe Biden at the stake is Joe Biden. He's the one doing this stuff in front of the cameras. Either nobody has told him to stop or it's not getting through. If the Vice President was doing that to your wife or daughter, you'd feel uncomfortable. Would you tell him to stop? I don't know if I would. But I know this. I like Joe Biden but I hate the fact that he does this shit all the time. I don't want my President doing that! It's a shame that it took somebody like Lucy Flores to come forward to say it but he can't keep getting away with it.

But imagine for a moment that Joe Biden had just come forward and just said "I've heard what Lucy Flores has said and in the wake of the Me Too movement, I've reflected on a lot of my behavior and it was wrong. I didn't think I was behaving inappropriately but I was." Then he can apologize, remind people that he cares about women by bringing up the Violence Against Women Act... Not only do I think he would have been forgiven but I think he would have gotten a bump.

But there's another elephant in the room.
Big Magilla wrote
I don't believe that Sanders himself is behind a ploy to drive Biden out of the running, but I don't trust his supporters. Even more ridiculous than this first woman's "he made me uncomfortable five years ago" assertions is the second woman's "I thought he wanted to kiss me" assertion that somehow means we must vote for a woman.
Okay, well, I'm one of his supporters. You've known me for years. Should we just end this conversation? Is that all you need to know about me? Or maybe you should make a greater effort to understand where people like me are coming from. I've come of age on this board and I've always made a great effort to learn from people like you, Tee, and Damien and to a large degree your opinions have shaped the person I am today with regards to film and politics. I respect your opinions and your beliefs, but you say you're not in a camp and I think you just revealed that you are.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

Sabin wrote:I used to think this story was exhausting but now I think it's pretty remarkable. It underlines again that in 2019 the most important thing is for you and your camp to be right. If you support Joe Biden, then this story means that the Me Too movement has gone too far and clearly this is a ploy by Bernie Sanders to take out his competition. If you support the Me Too movement, then this is as serious a story as anything else and somehow Joe Biden has no place in the Democratic primary. And if you are on the right, you immediately go into troll mode.

And if you're Joe Biden, you find a way to respond to these allegations in a way that satisfies nobody again. Why are we defending this guy? If he doesn't know how to respond to these allegations, why do we think he's our only chance of defeating Donald Trump?
First of all, I don't have a camp. I'm as uncomfortable with touchy-feely people as much as anybody, but I bristle at these ridiculous suggestions that such a thing is generational. It isn't. There have always been touchy-feeling politicians of which Biden is one of the most hands-on. On the other hand, I know a lot of touchy-feely people of both sexes whose motives are meant to be comforting, not predatory, who know when to keep their hands, and certainly their kissy lips, to themselves, something Biden for all his sophistication doesn't seem to know. Would I want to be in a room with him? Probably not. Do I think he's be as good a representative of the rights for women and everyone else as most of the younger Democrats running for President? Yes. Do I think he'd have a better chance at beating Trump than the others? At the moment, yes, but I am certainly open to Harris, Buttigieg and O'Rourke at present, and maybe others down the road, capturing the zeitgseist.

I don't believe that Sanders himself is behind a ploy to drive Biden out of the running, but I don't trust his supporters. Even more ridiculous than this first woman's "he made me uncomfortable five years ago" assertions is the second woman's "I thought he wanted to kiss me" assertion that somehow means we must vote for a woman.

If you truly support the Me-Too movement you must reject this kind of absurdity which just cheapens it and will eventually result in blowing it up if we can't tell the difference between sexual predators, grossly inappropriate behavior and mildly annoying behavior which has never been appropriate, though tolerated. It shouldn't be tolerated, but it shouldn't be cause for burning at the stake, either.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

Big Magilla wrote
I know nothing about his accuser, a failed Nevada candidate for lieutenant governor, other than that she did a 2016 promo for Bernie Sanders supporter which tells me all I need to know.
No, it doesn't.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/ ... ges-607330

Lucy Flores left her chair position at Our Revolution following his 2016 campaign.
Velasquez’s departure follows the resignation of Lucy Flores, a former Nevada assemblywoman and fellow founding board member, who quit in April over her own anger at Our Revolution for, in her view, ignoring issues important to Latinos. The group’s former political director has also claimed she was fired by Turner for helping with organizing in favor of the DREAM Act, which Turner has not disputed.
Lucy Flores does not appear to be Bernie Sanders operative hellbent on taking down his competition by any means necessary (bc nobody crushes in a primary like Joe Biden). No, she appears to have distanced herself from Bernie Sanders due to his insensitivity towards problems facing Latinos. And she happens to be an individual with a long history of concern about inappropriate behavior that women face every day and felt it was important to discuss it in public because, y'know, it IS inappropriate.

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-wor ... arassment/

I used to think this story was exhausting but now I think it's pretty remarkable. It underlines again that in 2019 the most important thing is for you and your camp to be right. If you support Joe Biden, then this story means that the Me Too movement has gone too far and clearly this is a ploy by Bernie Sanders to take out his competition. If you support the Me Too movement, then this is as serious a story as anything else and somehow Joe Biden has no place in the Democratic primary. And if you are on the right, you immediately go into troll mode.

And if you're Joe Biden, you find a way to respond to these allegations in a way that satisfies nobody again. Why are we defending this guy? If he doesn't know how to respond to these allegations, why do we think he's our only chance of defeating Donald Trump?
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

It's already starting. The same talking heads on networks other than Fox that brought up Hillary's e-mails every time Trump did something disgusting in 2016 to put them on a level playing field are already giving equal time to Biden's alleged touchy-feely moment from 2014 with all the horrible, despicable things that Trump and company are doing today from cutting off aid to the three Central American countries and threatening to close legal border crossings.

I know nothing about his accuser, a failed Nevada candidate for lieutenant governor, other than that she did a 2016 promo for Bernie Sanders supporter which tells me all I need to know.

What a swell way to go - get rid of the old guy so that an even older guy gets the nomination.

If you look at the pictures of her beaming at her appearance with Biden allegedly moments after he so horrorfyingly came up behind her and planted a kiss on the top of her head, you would never guess that there was anything wrong, and for all we know, may not have been, but Democrats have to be pure so let's get rid of him like we did Al Franken. Let's stop him in his tracks before he even announces, or if does, let's make sure he starts out wounded so that he will go down quicker than he might do on his own. Then all the younger candidates will split the vote for someone new and give smooth sailing to the other old guy, the one with good intentions and good ideas but who isn't even a Democrat and who doesn't have the ability to get anything done. Smart move, guys.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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When I google the name "Joe Biden," the first thing that pops up is the number of politicians who say they believe Nancy Flores and her story. Why wouldn't they? Who wouldn't believe a story like this after years of "Creepy Uncle" handsiness? And it is creepy stuff. Nobody wants that stuff to happen to them.

And yet... I just don't care that much. I mean, I feel bad for her and Joe Biden needs to STOP that crap. But I just... don't... care.

What I care about is Joe Biden's lack of political instincts. Here's a guy who is probably the most beloved Vice President in history, whom the country empathizes with for his loss. All he has to do is get out of his way and say he screwed up with Anita Hill and everything else in his past, and keep his ego at bay long enough to not muddy his apologies with half-steps back that deflect blame. In one sentence, he goes from saying he regrets the crime bill to saying that they got it right with the crime bill. Joe Biden has the lowest bar in the world to clear: just make it clear you screwed up and you feel bad about it, forgiveness almost guaranteed.

It wouldn't surprise me if he didn't jump in the race. At this point, what are his choices? Wait another week or two or announce his run for the presidency AND apologize for sexual assault in the same sentence?
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

It's only been a few days, but the bloom is already off the rose for Orange Hitler and his cronies.

A new Politico poll finds no statistical change in his approval ratings post-Barr memo. Before the memo, his approval rating was 41 vs. 54 negative. After, it was 42 vs. 55. The Mueller grand juries are continuing to do their jobs, with jurisdiction shifted to other prosecutors. Orange Dude continues to shoot himself in the foot with his latest do-away-with-Obama care rants. Education Secretary Madame Defarge's refusal to answer questions about de-funding Special Olympics and other important educational programs have resulted in Congress not only prepared to save those programs but to increase spending for them.

Perhaps they will eventually find the smoking gun that proves conspiracy, but how anyone can say there was no collusion when it was in plain sight is beyond me. To prove conspiracy, they would have to prove he worked with the Russians either directly or through his flunkies. Collusion means illegal cooperation and there was certainly that. When the economy continues to tank and his poll numbers drop to the low 30s, perhaps there will be Republican calls for impeachment and he will eventually be tried before Congress and removed from office, but then we get Mike and Mother Pence as the new royal family, which would mean continued horrors.

The best thing in the long run may be to continue as we have for the last two years, keep up the good fight and defeat him and as many Republicans as we can in 2020. Winning sooner might result in the kind of complacency that causes voers to stay home on Election Day.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Greg »

Bizarre fight breaks out in House over whether socialists are Nazis:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/ ... te-1237472
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

Sabin wrote:
Mister Tee wrote
A few words to deal with this odd moment, when -- I feel I need to scream it -- we have yet to see the Mueller report!!!
And now we won’t. McConnell is preventing it from being released.
McConnell can't prevent it from being released. What he prevented today was a Senate vote on releasing it. The House committee chairmen have demanded its release by April 2nd. It will be released, but how much of it will be redacted, we don't know. Barr and Mueller will be called before the various House committees. Barr has to appear before the budget committee in two weeks at which time he will be grilled about the report anyway.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

Mister Tee wrote
A few words to deal with this odd moment, when -- I feel I need to scream it -- we have yet to see the Mueller report!!!
And now we won’t. McConnell is preventing it from being released.

The question I keep coming back to is why should we be surprised? If Nixon had Fox News and these Republicans, maybe he’d still be serving today. At some point last year, I got one of my relentlessly “RussiaGate” (lol) boosters to put his money where his mouth is and bet me $50 that Trump wouldn’t serve out his term with an additional $50 if he’s re-elected. At this point, the only question I have is if he dies of old age before his term is up or if I win the other fifty too.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

Mister Tee wrote:A few words to deal with this odd moment, when -- I feel I need to scream it -- we have yet to see the Mueller report!!!

Magilla's initial post is flat wrong. The Mueller report DID NOT say no obstruction. It presented facts pro and con but chose not to make a recommendation -- almost surely because Mueller feels indicting a president is a matter for the House of Representatives in the form of impeachment. William Barr -- Trump's AG -- had zero reason to make a judgment there.
It was a quote! That was the way it was spun by Barr. Mueller didn't say there was no conspiracy either. He said there was no provable conspiracy. He did not come to a conclusion on obstruction one way or another. Barr and the Republicans insist it was up to Barr to then make that determination, which he did. The Dems are saying no, it's up to Congress to make that determination.

I've been busy with other things so I haven't been following this too closely today, but it's clear that this is not going to end well for anyone.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Mister Tee »

A few words to deal with this odd moment, when -- I feel I need to scream it -- we have yet to see the Mueller report!!!

Magilla's initial post is flat wrong. The Mueller report DID NOT say no obstruction. It presented facts pro and con but chose not to make a recommendation -- almost surely because Mueller feels indicting a president is a matter for the House of Representatives in the form of impeachment. William Barr -- Trump's AG -- had zero reason to make a judgment there.

"No collusion" is also not as cut and dried as presented in this four page summary (which, as many are pointing out, does not include a single full sentence from Mueller, so calling it his report is journalistic malpractice). The phrase used is "does not establish" collusion with "the Russia government" -- an extremely lawyerly phrasing. "Does not establish" could mean anything from "no evidence whatever" to "everything short of a smoking gun". And specifying "Russian government" means Russian influence laundered through Wikileaks, the mob or the NRA wouldn't count.

All of this adds up to: Congress certainly, and the American public in general, need to see the report in full, not this summary -- which, for all we know, is as completely misleading/false as the laughable Nunes memo was. Watch to see if the full report is released quickly or if they hold back. If they're so confident this is exonerative, they should be itching to have everyone see it.

One more thing: even this memo, in a footnote, references matters Mueller has farmed out to US attorneys' offices. The whole "no other indictments" ignores whatever these investigations/prosecutions might yield. It's entirely possible Mueller saw his job as primarily investigative, and that he's leaving the prosecutorial stuff to career employees. Which is to say, this would not be the end, but the beginning of stage two.

I realize all that I'm saying here opens me to charges of being a dead-ender/conspiracy theorist, seeing how the press is in full swoon for accepting Barr's summary as gospel. It may turn out they're correct to do so. But this is feeling eerily similar to the Mission Accomplished era, when anyone who didn't accept the Iraq War as undisputed triumph for Bush was a sore loser and in denial. I feel like, there are clearly more shoes to drop.

Starting with -- one more time -- seeing Mueller's ACTUAL FRICKING REPORT.
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