Campaign 2020

[Okri]

I don't fully get why Booker succeeded and Gillibrand didn't.

[Greg]

I think the best moment of the Wednesday Democratic debate was when Inslee called to abolish the filibuster; the worst, and one of the worst moments of any debate I've seen, was when Yang said we should deal with climate change by moving to higher ground.

[Sabin]

To me, the most telling line of the night came from Kirsten Gillibrand in her closing statement: "When I am the President president of the United States... [other statements] ... please go to kirstengillibrand.org to help me get to the next debate!"

I'm going to be the next President. I just might not make the next debate. Pathetic. And that was the mindset of at least twelve of the people we've been hearing from. Well, that's all over now. No more punching up from people who aren't going to be the President for meaningless political points.

The next debate will winnow down to possibly seven. Biden, Booker, Buttigieg, Harris, O'Rourke, Sanders, and Warren with Castro, Klobuchar, and Yang on the bubble. I think the only thing that has happened over the past two months is that Klobuchar's podium will be taken by Castro. Maybe Yang will be there. Maybe he won't. If that's the case, the biggest winner is Julian Castro. The biggest loser is the Democratic Party.

[Big Magilla]

Booker came off best. Gillibrand also did well until she joined Harris and DiBlasio in their mean-spirited attacks on Biden. She wouldn't let go of some crazy complaint about an opt-ed from years ago that he clearly didn't recall. Booker's arguments with him were almost playful. DiBlasio's and Harris's attacks were meant to kill. You could also feel the knife in Harris's putdowns of Gabbard and DiBlasio handled Bennett the way he handles reporters at his press conferences.

Warren won the debate in absentia. Her combined toughness and cool of the night before ran circles around all of them.

[Sabin]

The winner of the night was Not Biden. There's a lot of other things that can be said but Biden did so poorly he essentially abdicated his authority on all the issues we would want him to champion and allowed others to position themselves as such. There was no stand out. Julian Castro continued to impress. Cory Booker owned the debate stage for the first time. Andrew Yang got enough time to spread his message. The Vice President was a piñata and gave out candy to everyone.

On the other hand, did anybody look good taking swings at him? I would say no.

[Big Magilla]

Yes, Sanders and Warren won the debate, but come on, "I wrote the damn bill"? By the time it gets voted on, if it ever does, it will have been completely watered down like everything else.

At least Sanders is honest about raising taxes on everyone to pay for "free" Medicare for all. Warren is still answering the question with "costs will go down". Most voters don't care half as much about costs as they do taxes.

While the moderates on the stage lacked the smart lines, they had legitimate issues and concerns about dumping everything about today's health care and starting over. It would make more sense for them all to get in a room together, agree on an approach that that will be the eventual compromise plan and present that as a united front - then the race will settle down to personalities which it's bound to in the end, anyway.

[Sabin]

All the op-eds have correctly called out last night's debate as "Centrists vs. Progressives." Progressives won. It's hard to make the case otherwise. The biggest moments that John Delaney, John Hinkenlooper, and Tim Ryan had were how badly they got smacked around by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Sanders telling Ryan "I wrote the damn bill." Warren telling Delaney "I really doesn't understand why anyone would go to the trouble of running for President of the United States just talk about what we really can't do and shouldn't fight for." It was so damaging that somebody updated John Delaney's wikipedia page to read that "Date of Death July 30th, 2019 (cause of death: Elizabeth Warren)" Even Marianne Williamson did well. The bar couldn't have been lower but she cleared it and then some. She held it together through the debate, made a strong case for reparations, asked her fellow candidates why their Democrats, and then as soon as the debate was over went full Marianne and told a child reporter who asked if she had any pets "Yes, I had a cat but it died." I think we're stuck with her until next March.

I would say Bernie Sanders won because he seemed like yesterday's news after last debate. This debate he didn't. Also, Marianne Williamson, but again: low bar.

The losers: Bullock, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Ryan. But maybe the Democratic Party overall. CNN is making them look like catty small children. They had four goals: cut everybody off, frame everything from a Republican talking point, get the moderates and the progressives to fight, and get Sanders and Warren to fight. They only failed on the last one.

[Sabin]

You're right.

Oops! Voting purge. What happened to Minnesota?

[Big Magilla]

Ohio and Florida are leaning red. Neither should be considered "gone" at this point.

[Sabin]

All I take from that map is that Ohio and Florida are truly gone forever.

[Big Magilla]

From civiqs.com dated 7/24/2019:

Electoral Map.png (77.47 KiB) Viewed 4096 times

[Greg]

"Elizabeth Warren warns of 'coming economic crash.'"

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/ ... sh-1424588

This time, the biggest driver would be out-of-control corporate loans.

[Sabin]

Iowa will be here in the blink of an eye.

Heksagon wrote
I can't believe that the primary seems to be fully going already.

Any predictions on who will win the primary? I used to think Cory Booker looked most likely to "fit" the part, but he still seems to be lagging a lot in polls. So now I'm thinking that Kamala Harris will come out on top. I have to admit, however, that I just don't know too much about the people running, or their base of support, so this is more about my curiosity on everything political, rather than having looked at the candidates in-depth.

Joe Biden is leading the polls by a huge margin, but certainly that is only a reflection of his better name recognition rather than deep support? Then again, he may benefit from the cluttered field, if none of the lesser known contenders manage to separate form the pack of challengers.

Joe Biden just dropped ten points from the last debate. I've been dubious about his chances for quite some time. His record is spotty on all the issues that the part of the Democratic Party with all the energy cares about.

It's hard to see what Cory Booker's lane is. I think he's one of those incredibly talented politicians who just sort of missed his moment due to his timing. I've said before that he seems to have been created in a lab to be Hillary Clinton's running mate. Because New Jersey had a Republican Governor in 2016, that opportunity was denied him.

If I had to guess right now, I would say Kamala Harris. She's young, intelligent, and it seems as though most in the party like the idea of her "prosecuting" President Trump in a debate. She has a fairly spotty record as well. There's a video of her laughing about putting parents in jail for truancy that is as damning as Hillary Clinton's "super predators" comment from the 90's. But it's hard to imagine anyone on-stage wanting to risk her wrath by calling her out on it.

If not her, then maybe Elizabeth Warren. She's my choice. She's been damaged politically by Trump's "Pocahontas" branding. But she's running a strong campaign of positivity and unparalleled wonkiness. She has a plan for EVERYTHING. If you text "PLAN" to one of her campaign numbers, you get weekly updates on new plans. That desire to get her hands dirty appeals to me, but I thinks her unwillingness to boil to a soundbite might hurt her, as will the fact that Bernie's in her lane as well.

Bernie Sanders' Fox News Town Hall debate was pretty remarkable for a few reasons. His performance in the primary debate felt like old news. I think his moment has passed but his campaign remains extremely well-funded and organized on a national-scale. He's a little more in it than people think.

The only other real contender I think is Mayor Pete Buttigieg. The news media fawns over him. Despite being gay, he seems to be electorally viable with his Midwest roots, Christian faith, and positive messaging. But I go back and forth between thinking he's going to drop out any moment or stay in until the end. His city is having a lot of racial problems right now that he seems to have willingly ignored rather than address head-on for easy to understand reasons. He's a young politician who didn't want to rock the boat. He's taking full responsibility, which contrasts well to Joe Biden's answers. On the other hand, it seems hard to run for President when it really seems like he's ignoring his job. I still think he would be a good running mate, if only because watching him debate Mike Pence would be a cathartic experience.

[OscarGuy]

As someone pointed out, the Iowa Caucuses are just over 200 days away. That's not that long if you think about it.

[Heksagon]

I can't believe that the primary seems to be fully going already.

Any predictions on who will win the primary? I used to think Cory Booker looked most likely to "fit" the part, but he still seems to be lagging a lot in polls. So now I'm thinking that Kamala Harris will come out on top. I have to admit, however, that I just don't know too much about the people running, or their base of support, so this is more about my curiosity on everything political, rather than having looked at the candidates in-depth.

Joe Biden is leading the polls by a huge margin, but certainly that is only a reflection of his better name recognition rather than deep support? Then again, he may benefit from the cluttered field, if none of the lesser known contenders manage to separate form the pack of challengers.